Ron Paul now up to 4.9% on intrade

[csen]

There are 835 bids at 4.9 at 639 bids at 4.6 -- someone is making a big bet here. For the first time I actually think his odds are getting a little rich, although I'm thrilled to see them that high.

[csen]

6% now, I have no idea what's going on

[rich34]

:) Maybe someone knows something we don't? Like, maybe his campaign contributions are going through the roof?

[billm317]

:) Maybe someone knows something we don't? Like, maybe his campaign contributions are going through the roof?

$75k in ONE day this past weekend! woo
http://dailypaul.com/node/1261

[Zydeco]

Paul is at 6.0% now to get the Republican nomination and McCain is at 6.2%. Which means that by tomorrow, if Paul goes up and/or McCain goes down, Paul will be in third place on intrade among declared candidates.

And Stu Rothenberg says Ron Paul should be excluded from the debates! God I'm enjoying the destruction of the MSM. Every squeal!:D

[paulitics]

Yeah, and Fred Thompson is dropping like a rock. A lot of activity recently. If I was a gambling man, I would bet that his chances have improved after the straw poll.

Why? because it is solid proof that the telephone polls were inaccurate to begin with. If Giuliani and CFRed were there, it would have barely made a dent at all. You can't say that about the other candidates.

[csen]

Yeah, and Fred Thompson is dropping like a rock. A lot of activity recently. If I was a gambling man, I would bet that his chances have improved after the straw poll.

Why? because it is solid proof that the telephone polls were inaccurate to begin with. If Giuliani and CFRed were there, it would have barely made a dent at all. You can't say that about the other candidates.

I agree to a certain extent, but one thing gives me pause. On a scale of 1 to 10, answering a telephone poll is a 1. Attending a Straw Poll and paying $35 is a 10. Voting is somewhere in between. We know that if the election were held in the middle of the desert Ron Paul would win, as our followers are the most dedicated, but voting at a local precinct is unfortunately a bit too easy...

[quickmike]

So youre saying we should put up obstacle courses and mine fields in front of every voting station in america? I like that idea:D Only the truly dedicated would bother.

[ChrisM]

We can do like the insurgencies in Iraq... Start threatening people who go out to vote. Only the Paulites will follow through.

[/Joke]

(I have now been targeted by the NSA...)

[Zydeco]

On a scale of 1 to 10, answering a telephone poll is a 1. Attending a Straw Poll and paying $35 is a 10. Voting is somewhere in between.

Give it time -- we're not even at Labor Day yet, the traditional start of the campaign season, and most people still haven't heard of Ron Paul because they aren't paying attention yet.

The 9% in Ames was HUGE. It's driving the intrade action.

This is unstoppable.

[stevedasbach]

We need to keep one thing about intrade in mind -- the odds are determined by the amounts bet. Paul's supporters are very committed -- it wouldn't surprise me if we are betting somewhat more on him than the available information really warrants. Faith.

[paulitics]

I agree to a certain extent, but one thing gives me pause. On a scale of 1 to 10, answering a telephone poll is a 1. Attending a Straw Poll and paying $35 is a 10. Voting is somewhere in between. We know that if the election were held in the middle of the desert Ron Paul would win, as our followers are the most dedicated, but voting at a local precinct is unfortunately a bit too easy...

Good point. but I would argue that the top candidates had made it pretty darn easy for all that voted for them by giving them free tickets, bus rides, and pampering. Some of Paul's voters had to buy their tickets, drive long distances, and deal with the parking, etc. I'm sure there were alot of Paul supporters that would not endure that much, especially when money is an issue.

The flaw of the telephone polls is they are only polling Republican likely voters. Those who have voted Republican in recent primaries. Paul's biggest demographic are independents. There are a few other flaws as well. I don't think we will see Paul rise very high in the polls, yet ihis true support is likely 2 to3 times this.

[cac1963]

:) Maybe someone knows something we don't?

Romney's staff, perhaps?

[CJLauderdale4]

Good point. but I would argue that the top candidates had made it pretty darn easy for all that voted for them by giving them free tickets, bus rides, and pampering. Some of Paul's voters had to buy their tickets, drive long distances, and deal with the parking, etc. I'm sure there were alot of Paul supporters that would not endure that much, especially when money is an issue.

The flaw of the telephone polls is they are only polling Republican likely voters. Those who have voted Republican in recent primaries. Paul's biggest demographic are independents. There are a few other flaws as well. I don't think we will see Paul rise very high in the polls, yet ihis true support is likely 2 to3 times this.

So true! I love the shouting match between the Romney supporters and the RP supporters after Romney's speech.

The RP supporters started shouting: "We're not paid staff!" over and over, and all of the Romney people shut up and walked away!! That was great!!

The RP voters this Saturday were the REAL DEAL!

[Jared Callanan]

I hope I no one throws a tomato at me for this but I think the Iowa Straw Poll was absolutely the worst thing that could have happened for Fred Thompson. It took a certain second tier christian conservative in Mike Hukcabee and added him to the top tier.. Fred Thompson certainly didn't want another conservative to contend with. Huckabee takes away from Fred Thompson.