Ames inconsistencies/exit polling?

[coplinger]

I remember reading that the Ron Paul camp would be doing their own exit polling at the straw poll. I read today that although some 26,000 people paid to vote, only 14, 000 votes were counted. Has this been verified?

Did the Paul campaign do exit polling?

If so, did the exit polls match the results?

[UtahApocalypse]

Mitt the Twitt bought 10,000 tickets and only got 4516... You do the math, many tickets went unused.

The cool part is that Ron Paul had only bought 800 tickets and got 1305... So he had people actually PAY to vote for him.

[Thatguyuknow]

Mitt the Twitt bought 10,000 tickets and only got 4516... You do the math, many tickets went unused.

The cool part is that Ron Paul had only bought 800 tickets and got 1305... So he had people actually PAY to vote for him.

Or 500 of those "unused Romney tickets" paid for them to vote for RP.:D :D

[wecandoit]

I'm pretty certain we got screwed at the straw poll, but there is nothing positive that can come out of trying to challenge it. We just have to bit our lip and move on.

The positives we can get out of it is that it was a good practice run at challenging vote talleys in the future. We had no chance with this one because it was basically a privately run deal. When the real votes start, it'll be a different story and I'm certain we'll be facing the same issues about being able to verify the vote totals. We have to consider this a practice run.

The other positive thing is all the effort in Iowa certainly did paid off, if not for all the supporters, volunteers and votes for Paul, they probably would have dropped him lower than 5th. 5th was probably the lowest they felt they could drop him considering how much actually support he had.

[dseisner]

Citizens for a Fair Vote Count said they were going to have 60 people doing exit polling at Ames. So far, I haven't seen or heard anything about that. Does anybody know if the exit polling was actually conducted? If so, what are the results and how do they compare to the results of the straw poll?

[Marshall]

From some article I read or another, only a fraction of people leaving the voting booths actually participated in the exit polls, so the results could be pretty inaccurate. I'm also interested to see where that lawsuit that was filed will go.

[Lord Xar]

Right.. what happened to Jim Condits jr. effort to do an exit poll.. what happened ? its all silent......

[Syren123]

Didn't they collect money for their 'exit poll'? They had a paypal acct as I recall.

[Bryan]

A few things to note:

- The campaign did not buy tickets, volunteers did.
- The campaign did not do an exit poll, I believe there were two separate, independent efforts. The “Sunshine” group did one too. I’m not sure what the results were.

[CurtisLow]

There were 26,000 total Tickets sold for this event, yet there were only just 14,302 votes tabulated.

Now think about that for a minute.
26,000 people purchase tickets to go to a Straw Poll event, and yet we are to believe that 12,000 of those people couldn't even care less about the voting part? Just what were they there for?

This is not believable.
12,000 people went through all that trouble to get a ticket, drive a long distance, wrestle around with parking, or public transportation, and spent their whole Saturday away at a crowded and noisy event, and then did not even vote for anybody?
What were they there for again?

I don't buy it. This is not believable.
An Investigation is needed here.

I think what happened is that the Diebold E-Voting machines threw away votes --- as we also saw last year with the 2006 Florida-13 race and the NC-08 race (hurting the more liberal candidate in each race) --
And, these machines most likely threw away the votes that were intended for only the anti-Iraq, anti-War, anti-Central-Bank-monopoly, anti-Patriot-Act, anti-Empire candidate in the race, Ron Paul.

We all know that Ron Paul had a huge very visible and very vocal crowd of supporters there at the event, that were perhaps equal in number to, or at least in the same ballpark as Mitt Romney.

So, if, for example, the machine only registered 1 out of every 4 Ron Paul votes --- for Ron Paul himself --- and then threw the rest out, that would explain his much lighter than expected 1,300 vote total, and also explain some of the huge gap between ticket buyers (26,000) and the total people recognized as having voted (14,000) in the event.

Of course, it could even be worse than this (even more Ron Paul voters votes thrown away), thus robbing Paul of an outright victory in the Straw Poll.

I cannot prove that this specifically is what happened.
But the point is that, without a open, transparent, inspectible, verifiable (in real-time) voting environment, which is a requirement for any Democracy, we will never know here.

I know this, 26,000 get tickets to an voting event, and only 14,302 bother to vote-?? That dog don't hunt!

[ChrisM]

There were 26,000 total Tickets sold for this event, yet there were only just 14,302 votes tabulated.

Now think about that for a minute.
26,000 people purchase tickets to go to a Straw Poll event, and yet we are to believe that 12,000 of those people couldn't even care less about the voting part? Just what were they there for?

This is not believable.
12,000 people went through all that trouble to get a ticket, drive a long distance, wrestle around with parking, or public transportation, and spent their whole Saturday away at a crowded and noisy event, and then did not even vote for anybody?
What were they there for again?

I don't buy it. This is not believable.
An Investigation is needed here.

I think what happened is that the Diebold E-Voting machines threw away votes --- as we also saw last year with the 2006 Florida-13 race and the NC-08 race (hurting the more liberal candidate in each race) --
And, these machines most likely threw away the votes that were intended for only the anti-Iraq, anti-War, anti-Central-Bank-monopoly, anti-Patriot-Act, anti-Empire candidate in the race, Ron Paul.

We all know that Ron Paul had a huge very visible and very vocal crowd of supporters there at the event, that were perhaps equal in number to, or at least in the same ballpark as Mitt Romney.

So, if, for example, the machine only registered 1 out of every 4 Ron Paul votes --- for Ron Paul himself --- and then threw the rest out, that would explain his much lighter than expected 1,300 vote total, and also explain some of the huge gap between ticket buyers (26,000) and the total people recognized as having voted (14,000) in the event.

Of course, it could even be worse than this (even more Ron Paul voters votes thrown away), thus robbing Paul of an outright victory in the Straw Poll.

I cannot prove that this specifically is what happened.
But the point is that, without a open, transparent, inspectible, verifiable (in real-time) voting environment, which is a requirement for any Democracy, we will never know here.

I know this, 26,000 get tickets to an voting event, and only 14,302 bother to vote-?? That dog don't hunt!
The candidates bought the tickets, not the people. There's no reason to shout conspiracy here. Calm down...

[wecandoit]

Right.. what happened to Jim Condits jr. effort to do an exit poll.. what happened ? its all silent......


From what I read, the lawsuit was thrown out on Friday, the judge citing the fact that the Iowa straw poll was completely privately run.

We need to be ready to do these similar things though when the real votes start being cast.

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

An Iowan called me yesterday to say that when he voted, Ron Paul was in the last position on the ballot, but when his wife and daughter voted, Ron Paul was in the 3rd position on the ballot. Is that a little strange? How does one get in touch with Jim Condit?

[DeadheadForPaul]

I dont see why people are pulling out these conspiracy theories

if anything, Mitt Romney should be doing it. He got less than half the votes of the tix he PAID for and we got more than what we paid for

Conspiracy theorists = idiots with no facts

[jacksit]

An Iowan called me yesterday to say that when he voted, Ron Paul was in the last position on the ballot, but when his wife and daughter voted, Ron Paul was in the 3rd position on the ballot. Is that a little strange? How does one get in touch with Jim Condit?

It's not strange. A supposed "benefit" of electronic voting is that you can randomize the ballot positions eliminating the slight bias in favor of people at the beginning of the ballot. I assume that's what happened here.

[sleeper]

It's not strange. A supposed "benefit" of electronic voting is that you can randomize the ballot positions eliminating the slight bias in favor of people at the beginning of the ballot. I assume that's what happened here.


How do these machines scan then? If ron is 3rd on a tcket and then last on another, How does the machine knows the difference?

[jacksit]

How do these machines scan then? If ron is 3rd on a tcket and then last on another, How does the machine knows the difference?

I'm not sure what you mean by "scan." Sometimes they are touch screens so you press a button on the screen for the name you want and the computer registers the vote. Others are kinda like ATM style where there are buttons on the side and the choices align to a button and you pick the one you want that way.

[Ninja Homer]

It's not strange. A supposed "benefit" of electronic voting is that you can randomize the ballot positions eliminating the slight bias in favor of people at the beginning of the ballot. I assume that's what happened here.

I'm not so sure about that... These are paper ballots, with electric scanners. Like multiple choice tests in school, you mark the paper ballot for who you want to vote for, and feed it into the machine. The machine keeps a running total of how many each candidate has, and prints out the totals at the end so the totals for each machine can be added together.

I would think that the machine just reads the ballot as: position 1 = no, position 2 = no, position 3 = yes, position 4 = no, etc, if the ballot was a vote for whoever was in position 3.

Before anybody gets too excited, it should be verified that this is, indeed, how these vote counters work.

It also should be verified by more people where exactly Ron Paul was on the ballot for them. It would also help to know who was in the other position, like if Ron Paul was in the last position, who was in the third, and if Ron Paul was in the third position, who was in the last.

Jim Condit's site is http://www.votefraud.org/.

[Exponent]

How do these machines scan then? If ron is 3rd on a tcket and then last on another, How does the machine knows the difference?
Each ballot probably has some identification mark that the machine can read that places it in a particular group, and the machine can therefore be set to recognize different groups of ballots. Or at least that's the idea that makes sense; I have no actual knowledge that this is how it is, though.

[Jeanne]

Got this in an email today --

***************

"Those not in attendance missed a great presentation of true American's at work! Representation by REAL supporters was dominated by the Ron Paul camp and I and my kids were very proud to be a part of our neighboring Iowan's efforts.

A Brownback Staff member was shocked when he found out all our people there were volunteers. His were all paid-for employees and there was no enthusiasm at all. The Romney camp was even worse.

I challenge all States to top what Iowa did this past weekend. Good Luck! These boys and girls didn't mess around.

Despite nervousness due to the Wednesday interview on Jan Mickelson's show regarding the Diebold machines and the subsequent lawsuit by "We the People" and other Plaintiffs from Iowa, Ron Paul fared extremely well in the Poll. I think he may have done better but then we still have the Diebold problem.

I truly hope that everyone will acknowledge that it took over 2 hours for 60 machines to process just over 14,300 votes. That's less than 240 votes per machine. The "Official" explanation was first due to humidity and then a glitch in the system. Over 2 hours to process 14,300+ votes?

After the threat of lawsuit against the Iowa GOP(Not by the Ron Paul Campaign but by some seriously concerned Americans including me), the Ron Paul Campaign was threatened by the Iowa GOP to be charged over $184,000 to process the vote the old fashioned way if they were forced to do it. Give me a break.

Sixty machines averaging less than 240 votes each! Let's do the math. 60 machines = 60 sorters, 60 counters, and 60 verifiers. Let's add 60 People filming the count. That's 240 people. Most people would feel privileged to be a part of the count and would do it for free including the filming.

So how long does it take to sort or count 240 votes? Well, it took 60 machines over 2 hours to do it and there's no paper trail or verification offered. Besides, the Iowa GOP absolutely refused to show the actual ballots. Besides, I could take 240 sixth graders to do this job in 30 minutes.

So what happened in the 120 minutes it took for the machines and the State Auditor and their staff to figure 14,300+ votes?

With this supposed lack of common sense usage of mathmatics, the Iowa GOP decided to move things to a much higher level of control and manipulation.

They kicked out one of the "Vote in Sunshine" video volunteers from the Diebold demonstration on Friday because this volunteer wasn't a part of anyone's campaign. The footage is already up on You Tube.

The Iowa GOP also illegally detained one of the "Vote in Sunshine" people for nearly 30 minutes and forcibly took possession of the flyers he was passing out. I know! I was there when we went to directly challenge the unlawful detention. The Deputy Sheriffs who finally showed up said we were right and let the volunteer walk without question.

There was also a confrontation started by the Iowa GOP with another three of the "Vote in Sunshine" exit pollers. The Iowa GOP decided to call in the Police but it still didn't stop the exit pollers. Is this what the Republican Party has become?

I will be calling my own Missouri GOP(of which I'm a member), and also the National GOP. This conduct is completely unacceptable and I do not think good Americans will tolerate these tactics anywhere in the country.

I wish all supporters would have attended our post party at the Holiday Inn Conference Center. Bob Schultz showed up and spoke for at least an hour about the lawsuit play-by-play. It was very informative, instructual and shed much clarity on the legal ramifications which are extremely valid and appropriate.

Anyway, Great Job Iowa! Can't wait to see all the footage.

Jim Palmisano"
417-496-1973

[sleeper]

I'm not sure what you mean by "scan." Sometimes they are touch screens so you press a button on the screen for the name you want and the computer registers the vote. Others are kinda like ATM style where there are buttons on the side and the choices align to a button and you pick the one you want that way.


If that was the case. Why would a recount by hand be needed? They didn't look at the names on the ballot. They slid them thru a machine is what my understanding is. Now if rp is in 3rd and last place. How is that recount machine to know the difference? These machines screwed up just over 14K in votes. Come on now people. This will not look good for bush actually being our president if these machines couldn't even count 14K in votes without f/king up now. Imagine how many scewed votes from previous elections that used these machines. Something to really think about I would say...

[Ninja Homer]

Each ballot probably has some identification mark that the machine can read that places it in a particular group, and the machine can therefore be set to recognize different groups of ballots. Or at least that's the idea that makes sense; I have no actual knowledge that this is how it is, though.

I hope that isn't the case... it would be way too easy to print up ballots that had names in the wrong places, whether on purpose or by mistake. There wouldn't be a way of checking if the order was correct unless you knew what the code meant.

[ChrisM]

I imagine: The forms have a form code printed on them that the machine reads. That's exactly how standardized testing booklets are scanned in, since they also vary.

[sleeper]

I imagine: The forms have a form code printed on them that the machine reads. That's exactly how standardized testing booklets are scanned in, since they also vary.

I say go back to total paper votes. Or for florida residents. Give them crayons and tell them to color in their candidate of choice.

[ChrisM]

I say go back to total paper votes. Or for florida residents. Give them crayons and tell them to color in their candidate of choice.
I agree too, or at least a mechanical voting machine like the pulley-lever contraptions of old.

[Man from La Mancha]

I agree too, or at least a mechanical voting machine like the pulley-lever contraptions of old.


Those machines can also be fixed and it is still a hidden count

[Spirit of '76]

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/02/images/20050202-11_p44390-383jpg-515h.jpg

[RevolutionSD]

Conspiracy theorists = idiots with no facts


That's just an ignorant thing to say.
For a conspiracy to exist you just need more than one person involved.
Real life conspiracies happen all the time.

It is likely that there was something up with the vote count on Saturday, but I do not believe it's worth protesting in anyway. Let's learn and move on to the next battle.

[stevedasbach]

My understanding is that between the campaign and "Adopt-an-Iowan" there were about 1400 tickets available for Paul supporters. Near the end of the voting period, the "Adopt-an-Iowan" project still had some tickets available that they couldn't find Paul supporters for. 1300 votes is very reasonable given the number of tickets purchased.

Paul had LOTS of out of state supporters. That made for lots of visible and audible support for Paul, but those folks couldn't vote. The ground campaign simply got started too late in Iowa to build up a larger vote total.

This was a good result for the time and effort invested.

[sleeper]

That's just an ignorant thing to say.
For a conspiracy to exist you just need more than one person involved.
Real life conspiracies happen all the time.

It is likely that there was something up with the vote count on Saturday, but I do not believe it's worth protesting in anyway. Let's learn and move on to the next battle.


right on. We got to keep fighting, And I believe many who heard his speach are really thinking, Who the hell is that man. And his speech was very powerful and convincing. Why Was it convincing, Because it was the truth and straight to the point. We haven't had the truth spoken to us in a long time and it sure feels good to find someone we can trust to be honest to us and speak to us as adults.

[amberj]

Jeanne, do you happen to have a link to the "Vote in Sunshine" YouTube video that was mentioned?

[Ingarbloody]

Just an interesting comparison between the exit polling Vote in Sunshine (http://voteinsunshine.blogspot.com/2007/08/we-people-counted-our-votes-in-sunshine.html) did versus the official results.
They only got about 6% of the total exit polled.


Candidate Amount VIS% Official Difference
Ron Paul 332 37.01% 9.10% 27.91%
Tom Tancredo 150 16.72% 13.70% 3.02%
Mike Huckabee 187 20.85% 18.10% 2.75%
Fred Thompson 8 0.89% 1.40% -0.51%
Tommy Thompson 39 4.35% 7.30% -2.95%
Mitt Romney 90 10.03% 31.60% -21.57%
Duncan Hunter 12 1.34% 1.20% 0.14%
John McCain 5 0.56% 0.70% -0.14%
Sam Brownback 62 6.91% 15.30% -8.39%
John Cox 4 0.45% 0.10% 0.35%
Rudy Giuliani 6 0.67% 1.30% -0.63%
Total 897 out of 14,302 6.27%

Notice there's only about a 3% margin of error except for Romney, Ron Paul, and Brownback totals. Ok this doesn't want to line up correctly

[paulitics]

Just an interesting comparison between the exit polling Vote in Sunshine (http://voteinsunshine.blogspot.com/2007/08/we-people-counted-our-votes-in-sunshine.html) did versus the official results.
They only got about 6% of the total exit polled.
Candidate Amount VIS% Official Difference
Ron Paul 332 37.01% 9.10% 27.91%
Tom Tancredo 150 16.72% 13.70% 3.02%
Mike Huckabee 187 20.85% 18.10% 2.75%
Fred Thompson 8 0.89% 1.40% -0.51%
Tommy Thompson 39 4.35% 7.30% -2.95%
Mitt Romney 90 10.03% 31.60% -21.57%
Duncan Hunter 12 1.34% 1.20% 0.14%
John McCain 5 0.56% 0.70% -0.14%
Sam Brownback 62 6.91% 15.30% -8.39%
John Cox 4 0.45% 0.10% 0.35%
Rudy Giuliani 6 0.67% 1.30% -0.63%
Total 897 out of 14,302 6.27%

Notice there's only about a 3% margin of error except for Romney, Ron Paul, and Brownback totals.

wtf?

[wecandoit]

Just an interesting comparison between the exit polling Vote in Sunshine (http://voteinsunshine.blogspot.com/2007/08/we-people-counted-our-votes-in-sunshine.html) did versus the official results.
They only got about 6% of the total exit polled.
Candidate Amount VIS% Official Difference
Ron Paul 332 37.01% 9.10% 27.91%
Tom Tancredo 150 16.72% 13.70% 3.02%
Mike Huckabee 187 20.85% 18.10% 2.75%
Fred Thompson 8 0.89% 1.40% -0.51%
Tommy Thompson 39 4.35% 7.30% -2.95%
Mitt Romney 90 10.03% 31.60% -21.57%
Duncan Hunter 12 1.34% 1.20% 0.14%
John McCain 5 0.56% 0.70% -0.14%
Sam Brownback 62 6.91% 15.30% -8.39%
John Cox 4 0.45% 0.10% 0.35%
Rudy Giuliani 6 0.67% 1.30% -0.63%
Total 897 out of 14,302 6.27%

Notice there's only about a 3% margin of error except for Romney, Ron Paul, and Brownback totals.

My brain locked up trying to decipher that