View Full Version : A brokered convention is still possible, though it will be difficult

02-13-2008, 09:46 PM
To win the Republican nomination, a candidate needs 1,191 delegates. McCain has 839 according to most counts (this is an estimate since many haven't been handed out yet, so it could be less or more) and needs 352 more. Currently, there are 811 delegates still up for grabs before the primary and only one of those states is WTA (on a state basis) - Vermont (17 delegates). At least 114 delegates are being chosen by caucuses. 50 before March in all the U.S. territories - Guam, PR, etc., 32 by Idaho and New Mexico each in late May/early June. In addition, there are 33 delegates up for grabs in Nebraska chosen on July 12th at the state convention (the primary on May 13 means nothing) who are bound to their candidate for the first 2 rounds of voting. The rest are basically WTA per district, including Texas (although 41 at-large delegates are given to the winner if he gets 50%+1 or is the only one to get over 20% - which won't happen). So, while the chances may be low, they are far from non-existent. We can grab a significant portion of those delegates, and, if Huckabee does well (which he probably will, given many are in the Midwest and South) can prevent an overall McCain delegate majority and force a brokered convention.

02-13-2008, 09:55 PM
See my delegate projection (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=117904) thread if you want the math.