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View Full Version : Last Hope for a Brokered Convention




TastyWheat
02-13-2008, 06:11 PM
I know this kind of thing has been suggested before, but look at it from a statistical/strategic point of view. I'm not a statistician. These are rough estimates. Our chances could be better or worse.

John McCain is a bastard. I don't get why people vote for him but they do. He now needs around 390 delegates to win outright [with 1191 pledged delegates total]. That's about 47% of the remaining delegates.

Mike Huckabee, however, has as much chance of getting 1191 pledged delegates as we do (no chance). A vote for Huckabee is a vote against McCain is a vote for a brokered convention.

McCain and Huckabee will have a better chance of getting nominated on the 1st ballot than Ron Paul. However, there is a growing amount of animosity towards McCain and Huckabee. Their chances of winning over those unpledged votes is dwindling.

Don't chastise me for suggesting this. McCain is our #1 enemy in this race. The worse he does, the better it is for us. We can do a lot of good converting McCainsians and Hucksters towards our cause, but if Huckabee is beating or close to beating McCain I say we throw our votes his way.

I know there's a certain amount of pride involved here so don't do anything you'll commit suicide over later. If we don't get this nomination be prepared to quadruple our efforts and elect the 1st ever write-in as president.

nate895
02-13-2008, 06:17 PM
Psst..

You might not want to say that because the idiots on the forum might think you support Huckabee when you just want to win using strategy, not brute force like these people want to do.

You can view my delegate projection here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=piL3Xdbpib97P4e7ndQBxXA

The rules that back it up here: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-DSVE.phtml

TastyWheat
02-13-2008, 06:26 PM
I realize I'm taking a huge risk of even being banished from the forum for suggesting such a thing. Look at my previous posts (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/search.php?do=finduser&u=15654) though. I've even bad-mouthed Huckabee a few times. I know for sure that Huckabee can't get 1191 delegates though.

I really hope your projections are correct. I'd love nothing more than to vote for Ron Paul twice this year (three times if you count his congressional run).

nate895
02-13-2008, 06:28 PM
I realize I'm taking a huge risk of even being banished from the forum for suggesting such a thing. Look at my previous posts (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/search.php?do=finduser&u=15654) though. I've even bad-mouthed Huckabee a few times. I know for sure that Huckabee can't get 1191 delegates though.

I really hope your projections are correct. I'd love nothing more than to vote for Ron Paul twice this year (three times if you count his congressional run).

They thought I was a Huckabee supporter, even though it was only a couple posts. I was even banned from Huck's forums for suggesting that they pay us back a state if we threw them one.

jmdrake
02-13-2008, 06:47 PM
Well I already voted for Ron Paul so that's moot for me and I won't tell anybody else how to vote.

That said I agree that John McCain is public enemy number one. The best way to help Huck stop McCain is to produce anti McCain TV, radio and YouTube ads. What about an ad that shows what the world would be like after McCain's 100 years war?

Regards,

John M. Drake

Brian in Maryland
02-13-2008, 08:52 PM
I voted no here. Voted for Dr. Paul yesterday in MD's primary.

Dr. Paul says he wants to take as many delegates to the convention as possible.

jmarinara
02-13-2008, 09:10 PM
John McCain is a bastard. I don't get why people vote for him but they do.

They vote for him because it's "his turn". :rolleyes:

therealjjj77
02-13-2008, 10:21 PM
From what I understand, if McCain only has 168 BOUND delegates, then we can fill all the other unbound delegate spots that the media is saying is for McCain and have RP supporting delegates vote for him anyway at the national convention. So this whole strategy is pointless. Focus on becoming a delegate for your state at your national convention. Figure out the rules and engage to become one.

Kludge
02-13-2008, 10:38 PM
Huckabee isn't much better then McCain... Certainly not enough to ignore my principles.

IPSecure
02-13-2008, 10:47 PM
Listen to the Doctor...

http://people.ronpaul2008.com/campaign-updates/2008/02/11/if-youre-for-ron-paul-vote-for-ron-paul/

In a few supporter forums the idea is going around that one way to help Ron Paul might be to vote for Mike Huckabee in the hope that if Huckabee wins enough delegates we might get a brokered convention in the fall. Most of the supporters who like this idea at least say that it should only be tried in those winner-take-all primary states where Ron Paul has the least favorable odds.

I strongly advise against this tactical voting. Ron Paul is serious when he says he wants to win every possible vote as well as every possible national delegate. That includes your vote, even if the state you’re in presents seemingly unsurmountable odds against Dr. Paul. Our candidate is fighting hard for the nomination, and his goal, which should be our goal, is not to try to create a brokered convention, but to win every vote he can. The nomination is at stake, and much more is at stake too, including the future of the Republican Party and the future of the Republic. To build up the Ron Paul revolution, we need to show as much strength as possible in every contest, and we need the support and loyalty of everyone who wants to get back to the Constitution.

The deal worked out between our delegates and Mike Huckabee’s in West Virginia was one thing. Ron Paul was eliminated in the first round of voting and did not appear on the ballot in the second round, so our delegates who voted for Huckabee were not deserting Ron Paul — and, crucially, they were voting for Huckabee only because Huckabee’s people promised three national delegates for Dr. Paul. That kind of bargaining is sound. But voting for a candidate other than Ron Paul when there isn’t any chance of getting delegates for Dr. Paul, merely in the hope of having a brokered convention, only weakens the Ron Paul movement rather than strengthening it. We need every vote.

The same goes for leaving the Republican Party and registering as something else. Ron Paul has said how much he respects third parties. But Dr. Paul is in a fight to take back the Republican Party, and to do that he needs all of us to stay with him. I know this can be unpleasant — I registered as an independent when I moved to Delaware last year, and had to switch my registration back to the Republican Party that had left me years before in order to vote for Ron Paul. But however large the problems of the Republican Party may be (and they’re titanic) the one man in whom I have confidence to bring the party back to small-government, non-interventionist, constitutional principles is Ron Paul. If he’s not going third party, neither am I.

nate895
02-13-2008, 11:02 PM
Listen to the Doctor...

http://people.ronpaul2008.com/campaign-updates/2008/02/11/if-youre-for-ron-paul-vote-for-ron-paul/

In a few supporter forums the idea is going around that one way to help Ron Paul might be to vote for Mike Huckabee in the hope that if Huckabee wins enough delegates we might get a brokered convention in the fall. Most of the supporters who like this idea at least say that it should only be tried in those winner-take-all primary states where Ron Paul has the least favorable odds.

I strongly advise against this tactical voting. Ron Paul is serious when he says he wants to win every possible vote as well as every possible national delegate. That includes your vote, even if the state you’re in presents seemingly unsurmountable odds against Dr. Paul. Our candidate is fighting hard for the nomination, and his goal, which should be our goal, is not to try to create a brokered convention, but to win every vote he can. The nomination is at stake, and much more is at stake too, including the future of the Republican Party and the future of the Republic. To build up the Ron Paul revolution, we need to show as much strength as possible in every contest, and we need the support and loyalty of everyone who wants to get back to the Constitution.

The deal worked out between our delegates and Mike Huckabee’s in West Virginia was one thing. Ron Paul was eliminated in the first round of voting and did not appear on the ballot in the second round, so our delegates who voted for Huckabee were not deserting Ron Paul — and, crucially, they were voting for Huckabee only because Huckabee’s people promised three national delegates for Dr. Paul. That kind of bargaining is sound. But voting for a candidate other than Ron Paul when there isn’t any chance of getting delegates for Dr. Paul, merely in the hope of having a brokered convention, only weakens the Ron Paul movement rather than strengthening it. We need every vote.

The same goes for leaving the Republican Party and registering as something else. Ron Paul has said how much he respects third parties. But Dr. Paul is in a fight to take back the Republican Party, and to do that he needs all of us to stay with him. I know this can be unpleasant — I registered as an independent when I moved to Delaware last year, and had to switch my registration back to the Republican Party that had left me years before in order to vote for Ron Paul. But however large the problems of the Republican Party may be (and they’re titanic) the one man in whom I have confidence to bring the party back to small-government, non-interventionist, constitutional principles is Ron Paul. If he’s not going third party, neither am I.

The campaign has already proven its incompetence at winning elections.

BlueCalico
02-22-2008, 11:34 PM
THE CONVENTION DOES NOT HAVE TO BE BROKERED! We can overturn Rules at the State Conventions. Google - [your state] Republican Convention. Look for your state information at ronpaul2008.com, States.

STUDY and LEARN!