Ron Paul Republican: Ordered By Odds of Success

[da32130]

It is great we have candidates. But in order to know where to put our money and time we need to know who is set up to win.

(Update regarding these comments:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=120066&page=2
Supporting local candidates makes sense. However, we also have these mass money bombs:
http://www.libertywarchest.com/
So this can be used as a source of information for people that don't have the time to research all of these candidates but have money to give.)

Considerations:
1) How does the district normally vote (democrat or republican)?
2) Is the seat open (or is there a well funded incumbent)?

here is a further list of considerations:
http://www.rlc.org/?p=FAQ#4263

general list of candidates:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=91673
http://www.paulcongress.com/Candidates.html

Here is a starter list from most likely to least likely to win. I can update this as people make comments.

(Update: can try to rank based on Funds needed for a win)

1) Ron Paul (Incumbent; $310,000 raised, looking for $400,000) TEXAS DISTRICT 14
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=120216
http://www.ronpaulforcongress.com/
Republican challenger: Chris Peden ($43,262 raised??)

2) other candidates with a good chance?


3) Theodore Terbolizard (CA-4th,Primary June 3, 2008)
http://terbocongress.org/
Open Seat
three candidates have sought the Republican nomination including Iraq War Veteran Eric Egland, former Auburn mayor Mike Holmes and Theodore Terbolizard
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California's_4th_congressional_district#2008
2006: R-49.1%, D-45.9%, L-5%
NOTE:DUI charge

3) Jim Forsythe (NH-Disctrict 1, Primary September 9, 2008, endorsed by Ron Paul)
http://www.jimforsythe.com/
http://www.paulcongress.com/Candidates2.html
ENDORSED BY RON PAUL
Also, Peter Bearse (NH-Disctrict 1, Primary September 9, 2008)
http://www.peterbearseforcongress.com/
-------
Carol Shea-Porter (D-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carol_Shea-Porter
2006: Carol Shea-Porter Democratic 100,837 51.31 Jeb Bradley(I) Republican 95,538 48.61
Only in office 2 years.

3) John Mitchel, LtCol, USAF (Ret) (OH-District 7, Primary March 4, 2008)
http://www.reformcongress.com/
Open Seat (had been republican)
Dave Hobson (R-I, stepping down)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Hobson

3) John Wallace (NY-District 20, Primary: Sept. 9, 2008)
NOTE: Wants to Finish Surge and Iraq Conflict
http://www.johnwallaceforcongress.com/
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand
only in office 2 years, normally a republican district

7) Murray Sabrin (Senate NJ) (Funds needed?, has roughly 40k)
http://www.lewrockwell.com/raskin/raskin32.html
http://www.murraysabrin.com/
http://scholaroffreedom.com/
ENDORSED BY RON PAUL
2002 Race for U.S. Senate
o Frank Lautenberg (D), 54%
o Doug Forrester (R), 44%
Republican challengers(Primary June 3, 2008):
Joseph Pennacchio (may not have money)
Anne Evans Estabrook (has money, but may be too liberal)


7) B.J. Lawson (North Carolina's 4th district, already has raised 75k,Primary May 6, 2008)
comment #26 gives background from B.J.:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=94003&page=3
http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Price_(American_politician)
David Price (D)
2006: 65% versus?
competition for Republican nomination?

7) Brent Sanders (5th District of Louisiana,raised 4.5k, goal 300k, Primary: September 06, 2008)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=117684
comment #145 gives background(has run for office before):
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=117684&page=15
http://www.joinsanders.com/
Rodney Alexander (R-I, was a Democrat but switched, may run for Senate)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodney_Alexander
68 percent of the vote over Democratic candidate Gloria Williams Hearn

7) Dave Redick (WI-District 2,Primary Sept. 9, 2008)
http://www.forward-usa.org/
Tammy Baldwin (D-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammy_Baldwin
1998:won with 53%
2000:won with 51%
2002:won with 66%
2004: won with 63%
2006: won with 63%

11) Linda Goldthorpe (MI-1st District)
http://lindagoldthorpe.com/Home.html
Bart Stupak (D-I)
2006:won with 69.4%
2004:won with 65.6%
2002:won with 67.7%
2000:won with 58.5%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bart_Stupak
http://elections.mlive.com/dynamic/external/pre-election/profilesdistricts/MI01.html?SITE=MIGRAELN&SECTION=POLITICS&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

11) Kevin George ($11,964 raised) TEXAS -DISTRICT 4
http://kevingeorgeforcongress.org/home.htm
Republican Challengers (Primary March 4, 2008)
Ralph Moody Hall (Incumbent; $215,933 raised)
Gene Christensen ($87,340 raised)
Joshua Kowert ($0 raised)
Kathy Seei ($54,487 raised)
"George looks to be up against some stiff competition. Ralph Hall used to be a Democrat but in 2004 became a Republican. He's 84 years old but is still running for re-election. Christensen and Seei have also raised large sums. This will be a very tough win for Kevin George. Oh, and for what its worth, Gene Christensen has been endorsed by Chuck Norris."
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=120216


11) Vern McKinley (VA-District 10)
http://www.mckinleyforcongress.com/
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=118607 (#3 comment)
Frank Wolf (R-I)
2006: 57%-41% won against Democrat Judy Feder
Wolf has raised $740,297 thus far; McKinley has $16,325
Virginia's Congressional primary is June 10, 2008
Democrats:
Judy Feder ($588,928 raised) or Mike Turner ($60,744 raised)

11) Maryland Congressional Candidates (tough to beat Democrats, all have won the Republican nomination)
based on zadrock's analysis(comment #23), ordered from least liberal to most:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=120066&page=3

a)District 2 - Richard Matthews - http://www.richardmatthews.org
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Ruppersberger
Charles Albert Ruppersberger, III
2006: 69.21% beat Jimmy Mathis Republican 30.68%

b)District 4 - Peter James - http://peterjames08.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Wynn
Al Wynn*
2006: 80.67% beat Michael Moshe Starkman Republican 18.64%
*(lost 2008 in primary to Donna Edwards)

b)District 5 - Collins Baliey - http://www.baileyforuscongress.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steny_Hoyer
Steny Hoyer
2004: 68.67% beat Brad Jewitt Republican 29.93%
2006: no republican opponent

b)District 7 - Mike Hargadon - http://hargadonforuscongress.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elijah_Cummings
Elijah_Cummings
2004: 73.38% beat Tony Salazar Republican 26.38%
2006: no republican opponent

11) Dean Santoro for Florida’s 21st District US Congress (Primary: August 26, 2008)
http://www.paulcongress.com/Candidates.html
www.SantoroForCongress.org
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=119013
Lincoln Rafael Diaz-Balart (R-I)
Beat Frank Gonzalez, Frank got:
2004: 27% as a libertarian
2006: 41% as a Democrat
Democrat/Libertarian:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_J._Gonzalez
In 2006 Diaz-Balart spent $920,000 while Gonzalez spent $16,000, a 58 to 1 ratio

11) Jason Thompson (GA-7th,Primary: July 15, 2008)
http://www.votejasonthompson.us/
John Linder(R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Linder
In 2006, he was re-elected with 70.9% of the vote.

11) Joel Evens (SC-District 1, Primary June 10, 2008)
http://joelevans2008.com/
Henry E Brown, Jr. (R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_E._Brown,_Jr.
democrats don't even contest republicans


11) John D. Diamond (OH 15th district, Primary: March 4, 2008)
http://www.diamondforcongress.com/Home.htm
Open Seat (normally heavily Democrat)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Results%2C_U.S._Representative_from_Ohio% 2C_15th_District

11) Dave Ryon ((OH 12th district, Primary: March 4, 2008)
http://www.daveryon.com/
Pat Tiberi (R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Tiberi

11) Tom Brinkman (OH 2nd district,Primary: March 4, 2008)
http://www.gobrinkman.com/
Jean Schmidt (R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Schmidt

[DirtMcGirt]

bump

[Pauliana]

BJ Lawson? NC-4 against David Price, D 10th term 65%

[da32130]

BJ Lawson? NC-4 against David Price, D 10th term 65%

updated info on him

[da32130]

Added Vern McKinley (VA-District 10)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=118607

[da32130]

Switch the order a bit and added:

6) Dean Santoro for Florida’s 21st District US Congress (Primary: August 26, 2008)
http://www.paulcongress.com/Candidates.html
www.SantoroForCongress.org
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=119013
Lincoln Rafael Diaz-Balart (R-I)
Beat Frank Gonzalez, Frank got:
2004: 27% as a libertarian
2006: 41% as a Democrat
Democrat/Libertarian:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_J._Gonzalez
In 2006 Diaz-Balart spent $920,000 while Gonzalez spent $16,000, a 58 to 1 ratio

[Rhys]

Sound kinda like the MSM, don't we? Picking winners and losers?

[Tdcci]

Sound kinda like the MSM, don't we? Picking winners and losers?

Yes, but we can't spread our support too thin.

[Rhys]

Yes, but we can't spread our support too thin.

brush fires, not bonfires. that's my opinion.

[da32130]

brush fires, not bonfires. that's my opinion.

But if we have an excellent chance somewhere we may want to create a bonfire.

[Rhys]

But if we have an excellent chance somewhere we may want to create a bonfire.

it's a tempting mistress, but it will lead to collectivism. Also, everyone needs the benefit of the revolution. I'm going to run so the revolution in my area has a campaign to work for... so we can grow and continue to gain experience. I'll need the help, but I, like Ron Paul, maybe wont be the most electable this time... I'll have no chance maybe ever if I can't capitalize on the momentum now, while it's building and buzzing. And it's not about me... it's the message. It's also not about our most electable, it's about the message still. We need the message to be able to grow and foster everywhere it can.

Allow our campaigns to see what can happen. Let us make our own decisions on the grassroots level without trying to force anything. Allow us to use our strength. Our campaigns need to generate local popularity and buz, so I'd hope the Ron Paul people in my area will help me get elected. If they spend their energy on Murry Sabrin in NJ just because he's electable, I wont even run and the message will dwindle and the GOP in my area will move on and my local meetups wont have anything to meetup for.

Now is the time for political action everywhere. I want a congressman from every district in the country, and for that we need to build campaigns every where we can. Yes we can! :p

[da32130]

it's a tempting mistress, but it will lead to collectivism. Also, everyone needs the benefit of the revolution. I'm going to run so the revolution in my area has a campaign to work for... so we can grow and continue to gain experience. I'll need the help, but I, like Ron Paul, maybe wont be the most electable this time... I'll have no chance maybe ever if I can't capitalize on the momentum now, while it's building and buzzing. And it's not about me... it's the message. It's also not about our most electable, it's about the message still. We need the message to be able to grow and foster everywhere it can.

Allow our campaigns to see what can happen. Let us make our own decisions on the grassroots level without trying to force anything. Allow us to use our strength. Our campaigns need to generate local popularity and buz, so I'd hope the Ron Paul people in my area will help me get elected. If they spend their energy on Murry Sabrin in NJ just because he's electable, I wont even run and the message will dwindle and the GOP in my area will move on and my local meetups wont have anything to meetup for.

Now is the time for political action everywhere. I want a congressman from every district in the country, and for that we need to build campaigns every where we can. Yes we can! :p

Those are good points.

[life_boy]

I understand what you're saying. Local areas that have RP candidates running should focus on them. I think the purpose of the thread was to discuss the challenges faced by the campaigns and for those of us who do not have a local candidate to rally behind, where to put some of our money.

On a note of fairness, Sabrin is running for Senate and Senate campaigns usually require far more money than congressional campaigns because of the scope. They are also far more competitive. The more money we can give to Sabrin the better.

[da32130]

added info from this link:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=120216

[VaderM5]

Any chance for those that lose their primary will run as a independent?

[zadrock]

My guess is that Matthews has the best shot in MD (District 2 vs. Dutch Ruppersberger). We are so SO Democratic. We might do better to run as Gravel Democrats here. lol

Z

[da32130]

My guess is that Matthews has the best shot in MD (District 2 vs. Dutch Ruppersberger). We are so SO Democratic. We might do better to run as Gravel Democrats here. lol

Z

Any reason why?

If their isn't much distinction between each of the MD candidates chances I may just keep them all at the same level.

[da32130]

Added:
3) Brent Sanders (raised 4.5k, goal 300k)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=117684
comment #145 gives background(has run for office before):
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=117684&page=15
http://www.joinsanders.com/
Rodney Alexander (R-I, was a Democrat but switched, may run for Senate)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodney_Alexander
68 percent of the vote over Democratic candidate Gloria Williams Hearn

[da32130]

Added:
3) Theodore Terbolizard (CA-4th)
http://terbocongress.org/
No incumbent
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Califor..._district#2008
2006: R-49.1%, D-45.9%, L-5%

[life_boy]

Terbolizard has Republican competition. If he can seal the nomination then he could have a very good chance.

[da32130]

Added:
7) Jason Thompson (GA-7th,Primary: July 15, 2008)
http://www.votejasonthompson.us/
John Linder(R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Linder
In 2006, he was re-elected with 70.9% of the vote.

[da32130]

Terbolizard has Republican competition. If he can seal the nomination then he could have a very good chance.

I agree. Since you mentioned it, I added some info on that:
"three candidates have sought the Republican nomination including Iraq War Veteran Eric Egland, former Auburn mayor Mike Holmes and Theodore Terbolizard"

[zadrock]

Any reason why?

If their isn't much distinction between each of the MD candidates chances I may just keep them all at the same level.

It's less about the distinction among the RP Republicans and more about the District they're in and the opponent they're facing.

District 2 is merely "mostly liberal" as opposed to the "overwhelmingly liberal" Districts 4, 5, and 7.

The District 2 opponent is Dutch Ruppersberger, only in his 3rd term.
The District 4 opponent is Donna Edwards, who beat the incumbent Al Wynn in the primary on Tuesday. If she took down the incumbent, she's going to be formidable.
The District 5 opponent is Steny Hoyer, Senate Majority Leader, and longest-serving Congressman in Maryland history. Easy win for us. :rolleyes:
The District 7 opponent is Elijah Cummings, who replaced Kweisi Mfume in 1996.

I'm in District 7 and I will fight all the way to November for Mike. A good showing, even if not an outright win, will wake up both parties to our growing influence, especially in a state like MD. I do think the Presidential race will make it tough. How many Democrats are going to pull the trigger for Obama and then vote for a Republican Congressman? Not as many as I would like, I'm sure.

However, we need to build up the base now. A Democratic President and Democratic Congress who do what Democrats do for 2 years will open the door wide for 2010. But this thing starts now. I bet if a poll were taken now, Districts 5 and 7 would show at least 80% for the Dem. If we can get that under 60%, what a huge showing that would be.

Z

[da32130]

Added:
4) Linda Goldthorpe (MI-1st District)
http://lindagoldthorpe.com/Home.html
Bart Stupak (D-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bart_Stupak
http://elections.mlive.com/dynamic/e...MPLATE=DEFAULT

[usmc4paul]

Added:
7) Jason Thompson (GA-7th,Primary: July 15, 2008)
http://www.votejasonthompson.us/
John Linder(R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Linder
In 2006, he was re-elected with 70.9% of the vote.


John Linder has become your typical "neo-con" and has quite a few Republicans unhappy with him. This is a very heavy Republican District and if he can be defeated in the primary this district can be won.




Hello,


My name is Jason Thompson, and I am a Republican running for Congress in Georgia’s 7th Congressional District. I have been a steady worker in the grassroots Ron Paul campaign, and I think you’ll find I share many of his small government ideals.

My background is pretty simple. I am a Social Studies Teacher who has served our country in the United States Marine Corps. My Social Studies background gives me an understanding of the working of our government and the makeup of our Constitution. As a Marine I took a direct oath to defend that Constitution.

I am asking for your support in this upcoming election season.

Many might worry over not voting for John Linder, the incumbent. However, in our district the Republican candidate is assured a victory. That being the case, it is my belief that we need a Republican Candidate who will stand up for the small government, and fiscally conservative ideals that our party seems to have lost.

John Linder has proven he is not that person.

He has followed the Republican Party and has voted for many of the social programs that have driven up the domestic spending in our country the last few years (NCLB being the most prominent one, being he was a co-sponsor and still proudly defends the program).

It is time for a new direction for the Republican Party. That direction is: a return to the principles of small government, low taxes, and more personal freedom that we have always stood for.

Help me lead the party in that direction.

Please, visit my website at www.votejasonthompson.us

Sign in, volunteer, and donate.


Thank you,


Jason Thompson

[da32130]

It's less about the distinction among the RP Republicans and more about the District they're in and the opponent they're facing.

District 2 is merely "mostly liberal" as opposed to the "overwhelmingly liberal" Districts 4, 5, and 7.

The District 2 opponent is Dutch Ruppersberger, only in his 3rd term.
The District 4 opponent is Donna Edwards, who beat the incumbent Al Wynn in the primary on Tuesday. If she took down the incumbent, she's going to be formidable.
The District 5 opponent is Steny Hoyer, Senate Majority Leader, and longest-serving Congressman in Maryland history. Easy win for us. :rolleyes:
The District 7 opponent is Elijah Cummings, who replaced Kweisi Mfume in 1996.

I'm in District 7 and I will fight all the way to November for Mike. A good showing, even if not an outright win, will wake up both parties to our growing influence, especially in a state like MD. I do think the Presidential race will make it tough. How many Democrats are going to pull the trigger for Obama and then vote for a Republican Congressman? Not as many as I would like, I'm sure.

However, we need to build up the base now. A Democratic President and Democratic Congress who do what Democrats do for 2 years will open the door wide for 2010. But this thing starts now. I bet if a poll were taken now, Districts 5 and 7 would show at least 80% for the Dem. If we can get that under 60%, what a huge showing that would be.

Z


Thanks. I included a link to this comment.

[da32130]

John Linder has become your typical "neo-con" and has quite a few Republicans unhappy with him. This is a very heavy Republican District and if he can be defeated in the primary this district can be won.

Thanks for the info. Any idea of what it would take to beat Linder?

[da32130]

Added:
3) Peter Bearse (NH-Disctrict 1, Primary September 9, 2008)
http://www.peterbearseforcongress.com/
Carol Shea-Porter (D-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carol_Shea-Porter
2006: Carol Shea-Porter Democratic 100,837 51.31 Jeb Bradley(I) Republican 95,538 48.61
Only in office 2 years.

[da32130]

added:
3) Jim Forsythe (NH-Disctrict 1, Primary September 9, 2008, endorsed by Ron Paul)
http://www.jimforsythe.com/
http://www.paulcongress.com/Candidates2.html

[da32130]

updated:

5) Dave Redick (WI-District 2)
http://www.forward-usa.org/
Tammy Baldwin (D-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammy_Baldwin
1998:won with 53%
2000:won with 51%
2002:won with 66%
2004: won with 63%
2006: won with 63%

[da32130]

Added:
9) Joel Evens (SC-District 1, Primary June 10, 2008)
http://joelevans2008.com/
Henry E Brown, Jr. (R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_E._Brown,_Jr.
democrats don't even contest republicans

[da32130]

Added:

9) John D. Diamond (OH 15th district, Primary: March 4, 2008)
http://www.diamondforcongress.com/Home.htm
Open Seat (normally heavily Democrat)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electio..._15th_District

[da32130]

Added:

3) John Mitchel, LtCol, USAF (Ret) (OH-District 7)
http://www.reformcongress.com/
Open Seat (had been republican)
Dave Hobson (R-I, stepping down)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Hobson

3) John Wallace (NY-District 20, Primary: Sept. 9, 2008)
NOTE: Wants to Finish Surge and Iraq Conflict
http://www.johnwallaceforcongress.com/
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand
only in office 2 years, normally a republican district


11) John D. Diamond (OH 15th district, Primary: March 4, 2008)
http://www.diamondforcongress.com/Home.htm
Open Seat (normally heavily Democrat)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electio..._15th_District

11) Dave Ryon ((OH 12th district, Primary: March 4, 2008)
http://www.daveryon.com/
Pat Tiberi (R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Tiberi

11) Tom Brinkman (OH 2nd district,Primary: March 4, 2008)
http://www.gobrinkman.com/
Jean Schmidt (R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Schmidt

[usmc4paul]

Thanks for the info. Any idea of what it would take to beat Linder?


It is going to take about 44,000 votes.

I've had emails saying Linder stood up and lied to folks at his last "town hall" meeting. There is a great undercurrent of resentment towards the man.

However, the big problem is he and Neal Boortz (sp) wrote the "Fair Tax" book together.

So name recognition is a key.

That is going to take money.

We recently had the voter list of past primary Republican Voters donated to us, and I every day we have someone else volunteer.

It can be done. We are fighting for the right cause, and we will continue.

thank you.

[life_boy]

There are people who will support Linder simply because of the Fair Tax thing.

[usmc4paul]

Even though he voted for the Patriot act (and to make it forever), and all the other "Acts"

Even though he supports the war in Iraq

Even though he voted for NCLB, and Medicare "D"

Even though he is a NAFTA and CAFTA Supporter.

There are folks who support Dr. Paul who say they will still vote for Linder because of the Fair Tax.

Hopefully, with name recognition will come the understand that he isn't the only one in the race that supports tax reform.

[weslinder]

Added:
7) Jason Thompson (GA-7th,Primary: July 15, 2008)
http://www.votejasonthompson.us/
John Linder(R-I)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Linder
In 2006, he was re-elected with 70.9% of the vote.


He's running against my relative. :mad: No matter, Uncle John (Facetious, I really don't remember how we're related) has abandoned conservative values. He probably deserves to lose.

[boggie08]

I think Theodore Terbolizard should be bumped down. He had low name recognition. He raised very little money. After the DUI, I think a win is very unlikely.

I think we should focus on Murray Sabrin and Jim Forsythe. Because they are the only two Ron Paul endorsed, if they win it immediately gives Ron Paul more power within the GOP. Also, Murray Sabrin is the only one running for the Senate, which makes him especially important. It is Lautenberg's year to lose, and I want him to lose to Murray Sabrin.

[boggie08]

We need to work very quickly because many of the candidates are in primaries that occur by June 3rd. Every candidate faces an uphill battle. They need as much support as possible NOW!

[da32130]

I think Theodore Terbolizard should be bumped down. He had low name recognition. He raised very little money. After the DUI, I think a win is very unlikely.

I think we should focus on Murray Sabrin and Jim Forsythe. Because they are the only two Ron Paul endorsed, if they win it immediately gives Ron Paul more power within the GOP. Also, Murray Sabrin is the only one running for the Senate, which makes him especially important. It is Lautenberg's year to lose, and I want him to lose to Murray Sabrin.

I didn't change the order, but made note of the DUI. Also made note of who Ron Paul endorsed.

[gregl26]

I have an excellent chance of winning.

My district is Republican. We have a neo-con incumbent who promised not to run for office again. Many people are angry about this. Two neo-cons are running against him this election. No one ever votes in our congressional primary. Only 40,000 people voted in 2006.

What does this mean? The neo-con vote will be split. With proper funding I do not see a problem turning out 20,001 voters with our perfect conservative message. People respond to this message. We will not have the MSM problem RP did.

If we get enough monetary suppport from the national grassroots the chances of winning are high. If I win the primary I should win the general election.

[MRoCkEd]

I have an excellent chance of winning.

My district is Republican. We have a neo-con incumbent who promised not to run for office again. Many people are angry about this. Two neo-cons are running against him this election. No one ever votes in our congressional primary. Only 40,000 people voted in 2006.

What does this mean? The neo-con vote will be split. With proper funding I do not see a problem turning out 20,001 voters with our perfect conservative message. People respond to this message. We will not have the MSM problem RP did.

If we get enough monetary suppport from the national grassroots the chances of winning are high. If I win the primary I should win the general election.
great! make sure you put up one of those donation meters

[gregl26]

great! make sure you put up one of those donation meters

It is being worked on now. Thanks for your support.

[JDouglasFisher]

I'm going to make a case for Sabrin to rank below Ron Paul. I know some might not like the competitive nature this type of list brings, but here are some facts that need to be considered...

1.) A U.S. Senator (not a state level senator) has the option of the Filibuster, something which the House of Represenatatives doesn't have.

2.) Murray being elected to the U.S. Senate, would make him the highest ranking elected republican official in the state of New Jersey, and would allow him to set the Republican Party Platform from the top down. This would bring DRAMATIC changes all across New Jersey.

3.) Senate races admittedly are a bit more expensive to run.

4.) Having a Senator AND a Congressman introducing "Joint" legislation (imagine this would become a weekly thing, HAHAHA) garners alot of media attention. This is a rarity, and Murray is the ONLY candidate who is running for U.S. Senate. Everyone else is running for the house of representatives.

5.) Murray has the support not only of Ron Paul, (a personal friend of 25 years) but also of the Republican Liberty Caucus, as well as all the Ron Paul Supporters in New Jersey, not to mention a whole slew of other supporters who knew of him from the last two times he ran for office. Murray has a large following here in New Jersey..

6.) His competition is one Joe Penacchio, who openly admitted during an event that he was "A JFK Democrat who was forced to become a Republican only because the Democrats lost their way" (Family Pro Leader Conference in Morris Plains, NJ) and Ann Evans Estabrook, widow to a developer, very nice woman, but no prior political experiance, has invested 1.5 million of her own money, and who has a history of making campaign donations to Democrats for the past several years.

7.) On the Democrat side of the ticket, Frank Lautenburg has an 8 million dollar war chest, but will only spend about 5 million to maintain his seat. He is 84 years old, and as Murray has said "His ideas are ANCIENT." Other democrats can't stand him, there is a rift between him and the governor, and many democrats are secretly conspiring to support a republican candidate because they know they cannot win a primary against Frank. Its easier to use the republican to bump out the incumbent, wait 6 years, and then run in a Democrat primary.

8.) The average New Jersey citizen is very disappointed with Democrats recently, both Lautenburg and Corzine. Because of this, there are looking for a breath of fresh air. With Penacchio admitting he is a Democrat running as a Republican, and Estabrook just not being politically savvy, many of our citizens are taking a keen liking to Murray.

My advice, check out the website, http://www.murraysabrin.com, visit the youtube channel, watch the videos (especially the Woodbridge Republican Club, most recent, and shows Murray knows how to talk "to" other republicans, not "at" them.) call the campaign, email them, get involved.

Oh, and I forgot to mention, a U.S. Senate term lasts for 6 years!!!! That 6 years that Murray can talk them to death on the Senate floor (and man, can he talk when he wants too.,....) about Austrian Economics and Following the rule of law, which is the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.

[SabrinForSenate]

It's clear that Sabrin should be listed high on the list, not only for the reasons that Fisher noted, but because he KNOWS how to campaign. His intent in this race is to win. Whereas Ron Paul admitted that when he began, he didn't anticipate what would happen, Sabrin understands the power of the Ron Paul grassroots and knows that if he gets enough Ron Paul supporters behind him, he poses a serious threat to Lautenberg.

To begin with, Sabrin is considered a frontrunner in the race. Unlike Paul, in the beginning, Sabrin has been afforded a good deal of media coverage and many think he IS the frontrunner given his success at raising money.

Sabrin has hired one of the top political consulting firms in the country and will be able to reach ALL voters. This puts him in serious contending for the race.

Given Lautenberg's weakness, and Sabrin's dedication to the principles of liberty, he is an attractive candidate to NJ voters. He has a good deal of name recognition here (more so than his primary opponents) and thus stands ready to capture the nomination and get the GOP to rally behind him against Lautenberg.

If Sabrin can win, it will be an incredible triumph for liberty. Working with his good friend Ron Paul, Sabrin will try and legalize freedom by following the Constitution.

Sabrin doesn't just have the endorsement of Ron Paul, but he has the endorsements of Lew Rockwell, Tom DiLorenzo, and Tom Woods.

Go to www.MurraySabrin.com to check out more and get this great man elected.

[torchbearer]

My chances to compete are tied to my ability to raise funds.
If I don't raise much on March 2/3, then my chances to take out my opponent will be very slim.

Its winnable, but not without funds.