Delegate Projection

[nate895]

I continue to crunch the numbers while looking at the rules for each state's delegate apportionment, and I can't find a way that McCain can win outright. The only conclusion I can come to is that the media is lying outright.

Here are the delegate totals:
McCain: 1003
Huckabee: 683
Romney: 261
Paul: 81
Uncommitted: 298
Unknown: 58

You can view my state-by-state breakdown here. (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=piL3Xdbpib97P4e7ndQBxXA)

Delegate Apportionment Rules Source: The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-DSVE.phtml)

The only state I'd suspect would have a much different outcome would be Ohio.

[junior_bacon_cheeseburger]

what if McCain and Huckabee come to some agreement, like a VP nomination, and Huckabee gives all his delegates to McCain?

[theseus51]

What methodology did you use to come up with those numbers, like who did you predict winning which future states, and why?

[Banana]

what if McCain and Huckabee come to some agreement, like a VP nomination, and Huckabee gives all his delegates to McCain?

I'm not too sure, but Huckabee can't tell delegates what to do once released. If we have enough RP Republicans as Huckabee's delegates, the second ballot (e.g. John-Huckabee ticket) will fall flat as well.

Which is why it's important to ensure we have as many RP Republicans at National Convention even as other candidates' delegates.

And the best thing about this, is even if John makes the magical 1191 post, the delegates are free to craft platform, even one contrary to John. Of course they should deal with that pesky rule about GOP needing to support their nominee. (Really should be the other way around. They should be public servants, not leaders)

[nate895]

What methodology did you use to come up with those numbers, like who did you predict winning which future states, and why?

I used exit poll numbers from previous states, and matched the demographics of the upcoming states. I then factored the possibilities with momentum and campaigning in that state. Like Huckabee could emerge on top in Wisconsin if he campaigns hard over the next week, and then he'd have an easier time in Ohio because of momentum. I picked McCain winner in Wisconsin because of the fact it doesn't look like Huckabee would win, but it is still possible. Ohio I put in Huckabee's column because of where George Bush's vote was in 2004. You wouldn't know it from the news, but Ohio is very conservative, especially if looking at everywhere but Cleveland and Columbus. If Huckabee wins Wisconsin and campaigns hard in Ohio and Texas, I expect him to win.

[nate895]

what if McCain and Huckabee come to some agreement, like a VP nomination, and Huckabee gives all his delegates to McCain?

I don't think Huckabee wants to become VP, if that was the case he would have dropped out with Mitt Romney at CPAC. He is annoying McCain right now, not exactly what you want to do if you want to do his right-hand man.