Anyone Done The Math About Brokered Convention

[tbrambo]

Is it even possible for McCain to win the delegate amount needed? Seems like there's really not that many delegates left right?

Anyone done the math? My head hurts

:confused::confused::confused::confused::confused:

[bc2208]

Before tonight, there were 1138 delegates left to be decided. McCain needs 468, or 41%, in order to lock it up.

[nate895]

I have a delegate projection, but Huckabee needs to win Virginia tonight, otherwise the projection probably won't hold for a brokered convention.

[Molly1]

You can't do the math, because nobody knows how these delegates will vote.

For instance, Romney won Maine but Ron Paul won the lion's share of delegates according to those on the ground.

Same in Washington state.

Romney won Mass. Who will those delegates vote for? If they are our people, they will vote Ron Paul.

Just keep signing up for delegate positions in your state.

[Geronimo]

I got this from 'Wayne on Myspace' (http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=168006211&MyToken=7898b45a-115b-4946-8b45-caee653fc1d0)

Subject: ACCURATE Delegate analysis (Brokered Convention)

Found this VERY INTERESTING and most excellent analysis at http://www.paulunteer.com :

I used numbers that actually favor McCain(the same one’s MSM uses) I gave him all the delegates from Florida even though not all of Florida’s delegate were “winner take all”. Anyway, I wrote this in TextEdit, I hope everything pastes lined up correctly.

McCain Romney Huck Paul
AL 18 0 23 0 Bound
AK 3 12 6 5 UnBound
AR 1 1 29 0 Bound - 1 Round
CA 152 6 0 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
CO 0 43 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
CT 27 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
DE 18 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
FL 57 0 0 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
GA 21 3 48 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
IL 54 3 0 0 Bound
IA 0 7 30 0 UnBound
KS 0 0 36 0 Bound - 1 Round
ME 0 18 0 0 UnBound
MA 18 22 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
MI 6 23 1 0 Bound - 1 Round
MN 0 38 0 0 24 Unbound -14- 1RD
MO 58 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
MT 0 25 0 0 UnBound
NV 4 17 3 4 UnBound
NH 12 7 4 1 Bound
NJ 52 0 0 0 UnBound
NY 101 0 0 0 UnBound
ND 5 8 5 5 Bound- 1 Round
OK 32 0 6 0 Bound
SC 19 0 5 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
TN 18 11 23 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
UT 0 36 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
WV 0 0 15 3 Bound - 1 Round
WY 0 8 0 0 Unbound

Total 516 177 195 9 Bound

Total 160 111 39 9 Unbound

Remaining States
Louisiana 02/09 20 C- Awaiting Breakdown Bound- 1 Round
Washington 02/09 18 - Awaiting Breakdown UnBound
Virginia 02/12 63 W Bound- 1 Round
Maryland 02/12 37 C Bound- 2 Rounds
District of Columbia 02/12 19 W C Bound
Wisconsin 02/19 40 Bound
American Samoa 02/23 9 UnBound
Puerto Rico 02/24 23 Bound- 1 Round
Texas 03/04 140 Bound- 3 Rounds
Ohio 03/04 88 UnBound
Rhode Island 03/04 20 Bound
Vermont 03/04 17 W Bound - 2 Rounds
Mississippi 03/10 39 Bound
Virgin Islands 04/04 9 “Morally Bound”
Pennsylvania 04/22 74 C UnBound
North Carolina 05/06 69 “Morally Bound”
Indiana 05/06 57 Bound- 1 Round
Nebraska 05/13 33 Bound- 2 Rounds
Hawaii 05/16 20 C Bound- 1 Round
Kentucky 05/20 45 C Bound
Oregon 05/20 30 C Bound- 2 Rounds
Idaho 05/27 32 Bound- 1 Round
New Mexico 06/03 32 C Bound- 1 Round
South Dakota 06/03 27 C Bound- 1 Round

Total Bound Remaining: 694
Total Unbound Remaining(Includes Morally Bound): 267

To lock up the nomination McCain would need to secure 675 of the 694 Bound delegates remaining. We need to spread this. The MSM is reporting that he is the GOP nominee.

[pinkmandy]

I got this from 'Wayne on Myspace' (http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=168006211&MyToken=7898b45a-115b-4946-8b45-caee653fc1d0)

Subject: ACCURATE Delegate analysis (Brokered Convention)

Found this VERY INTERESTING and most excellent analysis at http://www.paulunteer.com :

I used numbers that actually favor McCain(the same one’s MSM uses) I gave him all the delegates from Florida even though not all of Florida’s delegate were “winner take all”. Anyway, I wrote this in TextEdit, I hope everything pastes lined up correctly.

McCain Romney Huck Paul
AL 18 0 23 0 Bound
AK 3 12 6 5 UnBound
AR 1 1 29 0 Bound - 1 Round
CA 152 6 0 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
CO 0 43 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
CT 27 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
DE 18 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
FL 57 0 0 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
GA 21 3 48 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
IL 54 3 0 0 Bound
IA 0 7 30 0 UnBound
KS 0 0 36 0 Bound - 1 Round
ME 0 18 0 0 UnBound
MA 18 22 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
MI 6 23 1 0 Bound - 1 Round
MN 0 38 0 0 24 Unbound -14- 1RD
MO 58 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
MT 0 25 0 0 UnBound
NV 4 17 3 4 UnBound
NH 12 7 4 1 Bound
NJ 52 0 0 0 UnBound
NY 101 0 0 0 UnBound
ND 5 8 5 5 Bound- 1 Round
OK 32 0 6 0 Bound
SC 19 0 5 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
TN 18 11 23 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
UT 0 36 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
WV 0 0 15 3 Bound - 1 Round
WY 0 8 0 0 Unbound

Total 516 177 195 9 Bound

Total 160 111 39 9 Unbound

Remaining States
Louisiana 02/09 20 C- Awaiting Breakdown Bound- 1 Round
Washington 02/09 18 - Awaiting Breakdown UnBound
Virginia 02/12 63 W Bound- 1 Round
Maryland 02/12 37 C Bound- 2 Rounds
District of Columbia 02/12 19 W C Bound
Wisconsin 02/19 40 Bound
American Samoa 02/23 9 UnBound
Puerto Rico 02/24 23 Bound- 1 Round
Texas 03/04 140 Bound- 3 Rounds
Ohio 03/04 88 UnBound
Rhode Island 03/04 20 Bound
Vermont 03/04 17 W Bound - 2 Rounds
Mississippi 03/10 39 Bound
Virgin Islands 04/04 9 “Morally Bound”
Pennsylvania 04/22 74 C UnBound
North Carolina 05/06 69 “Morally Bound”
Indiana 05/06 57 Bound- 1 Round
Nebraska 05/13 33 Bound- 2 Rounds
Hawaii 05/16 20 C Bound- 1 Round
Kentucky 05/20 45 C Bound
Oregon 05/20 30 C Bound- 2 Rounds
Idaho 05/27 32 Bound- 1 Round
New Mexico 06/03 32 C Bound- 1 Round
South Dakota 06/03 27 C Bound- 1 Round

Total Bound Remaining: 694
Total Unbound Remaining(Includes Morally Bound): 267

To lock up the nomination McCain would need to secure 675 of the 694 Bound delegates remaining. We need to spread this. The MSM is reporting that he is the GOP nominee.

Man, that's beautiful!!!!!!!

[Ex Post Facto]

True delegate counts are theoretical projections of how people will vote. They are not necessarily points in a game.

[BlueAngel]

Geronimo,

Regarding NJ.

You have it listed as "Unbound".

Delegates are "Bound" to vote for the candidate for the first three (3) rounds at the Convention.

The NJ State Committee voted to change the rules in June 2007.

You can verify here.
http://www.njgop.org/images/nj/2008_Delegate_Fact_Sheet.pdf


New Jersey GOP
Delegates will be allocated on a “winner takes all” basis. The highest vote getter at the New Jersey
presidential primary held on February 5, 2008 will be awarded all 52 delegates. Delegates will be bound to
vote for that candidate for the first 3 ballots at the Convention.

How does this change effect the numbers?







I got this from 'Wayne on Myspace' (http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=168006211&MyToken=7898b45a-115b-4946-8b45-caee653fc1d0)

Subject: ACCURATE Delegate analysis (Brokered Convention)

Found this VERY INTERESTING and most excellent analysis at http://www.paulunteer.com :

I used numbers that actually favor McCain(the same one’s MSM uses) I gave him all the delegates from Florida even though not all of Florida’s delegate were “winner take all”. Anyway, I wrote this in TextEdit, I hope everything pastes lined up correctly.

McCain Romney Huck Paul
AL 18 0 23 0 Bound
AK 3 12 6 5 UnBound
AR 1 1 29 0 Bound - 1 Round
CA 152 6 0 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
CO 0 43 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
CT 27 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
DE 18 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
FL 57 0 0 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
GA 21 3 48 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
IL 54 3 0 0 Bound
IA 0 7 30 0 UnBound
KS 0 0 36 0 Bound - 1 Round
ME 0 18 0 0 UnBound
MA 18 22 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
MI 6 23 1 0 Bound - 1 Round
MN 0 38 0 0 24 Unbound -14- 1RD
MO 58 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
MT 0 25 0 0 UnBound
NV 4 17 3 4 UnBound
NH 12 7 4 1 Bound
NJ 52 0 0 0 UnBound
NY 101 0 0 0 UnBound
ND 5 8 5 5 Bound- 1 Round
OK 32 0 6 0 Bound
SC 19 0 5 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
TN 18 11 23 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
UT 0 36 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
WV 0 0 15 3 Bound - 1 Round
WY 0 8 0 0 Unbound

Total 516 177 195 9 Bound

Total 160 111 39 9 Unbound

Remaining States
Louisiana 02/09 20 C- Awaiting Breakdown Bound- 1 Round
Washington 02/09 18 - Awaiting Breakdown UnBound
Virginia 02/12 63 W Bound- 1 Round
Maryland 02/12 37 C Bound- 2 Rounds
District of Columbia 02/12 19 W C Bound
Wisconsin 02/19 40 Bound
American Samoa 02/23 9 UnBound
Puerto Rico 02/24 23 Bound- 1 Round
Texas 03/04 140 Bound- 3 Rounds
Ohio 03/04 88 UnBound
Rhode Island 03/04 20 Bound
Vermont 03/04 17 W Bound - 2 Rounds
Mississippi 03/10 39 Bound
Virgin Islands 04/04 9 “Morally Bound”
Pennsylvania 04/22 74 C UnBound
North Carolina 05/06 69 “Morally Bound”
Indiana 05/06 57 Bound- 1 Round
Nebraska 05/13 33 Bound- 2 Rounds
Hawaii 05/16 20 C Bound- 1 Round
Kentucky 05/20 45 C Bound
Oregon 05/20 30 C Bound- 2 Rounds
Idaho 05/27 32 Bound- 1 Round
New Mexico 06/03 32 C Bound- 1 Round
South Dakota 06/03 27 C Bound- 1 Round

Total Bound Remaining: 694
Total Unbound Remaining(Includes Morally Bound): 267

To lock up the nomination McCain would need to secure 675 of the 694 Bound delegates remaining. We need to spread this. The MSM is reporting that he is the GOP nominee.

[Geronimo]

Thanks. I'll let 'Wayne' know.

[ProBlue33]

What happens at the convention, for example lets say you have 20 bound delegates in a state where it's winner takes all and 12 of them are Ron Paul supporters and they decide to risk legal attacks to vote for Ron Paul?

[Logistics]

I got this from 'Wayne on Myspace' (http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=168006211&MyToken=7898b45a-115b-4946-8b45-caee653fc1d0)

Subject: ACCURATE Delegate analysis (Brokered Convention)

Found this VERY INTERESTING and most excellent analysis at http://www.paulunteer.com :

I used numbers that actually favor McCain(the same one’s MSM uses) I gave him all the delegates from Florida even though not all of Florida’s delegate were “winner take all”. Anyway, I wrote this in TextEdit, I hope everything pastes lined up correctly.

McCain Romney Huck Paul
AL 18 0 23 0 Bound
AK 3 12 6 5 UnBound
AR 1 1 29 0 Bound - 1 Round
CA 152 6 0 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
CO 0 43 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
CT 27 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
DE 18 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
FL 57 0 0 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
GA 21 3 48 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
IL 54 3 0 0 Bound
IA 0 7 30 0 UnBound
KS 0 0 36 0 Bound - 1 Round
ME 0 18 0 0 UnBound
MA 18 22 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
MI 6 23 1 0 Bound - 1 Round
MN 0 38 0 0 24 Unbound -14- 1RD
MO 58 0 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
MT 0 25 0 0 UnBound
NV 4 17 3 4 UnBound
NH 12 7 4 1 Bound
NJ 52 0 0 0 UnBound
NY 101 0 0 0 UnBound
ND 5 8 5 5 Bound- 1 Round
OK 32 0 6 0 Bound
SC 19 0 5 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
TN 18 11 23 0 Bound - 2 Rounds
UT 0 36 0 0 Bound - 1 Round
WV 0 0 15 3 Bound - 1 Round
WY 0 8 0 0 Unbound

Total 516 177 195 9 Bound

Total 160 111 39 9 Unbound

Remaining States
Louisiana 02/09 20 C- Awaiting Breakdown Bound- 1 Round
Washington 02/09 18 - Awaiting Breakdown UnBound
Virginia 02/12 63 W Bound- 1 Round
Maryland 02/12 37 C Bound- 2 Rounds
District of Columbia 02/12 19 W C Bound
Wisconsin 02/19 40 Bound
American Samoa 02/23 9 UnBound
Puerto Rico 02/24 23 Bound- 1 Round
Texas 03/04 140 Bound- 3 Rounds
Ohio 03/04 88 UnBound
Rhode Island 03/04 20 Bound
Vermont 03/04 17 W Bound - 2 Rounds
Mississippi 03/10 39 Bound
Virgin Islands 04/04 9 “Morally Bound”
Pennsylvania 04/22 74 C UnBound
North Carolina 05/06 69 “Morally Bound”
Indiana 05/06 57 Bound- 1 Round
Nebraska 05/13 33 Bound- 2 Rounds
Hawaii 05/16 20 C Bound- 1 Round
Kentucky 05/20 45 C Bound
Oregon 05/20 30 C Bound- 2 Rounds
Idaho 05/27 32 Bound- 1 Round
New Mexico 06/03 32 C Bound- 1 Round
South Dakota 06/03 27 C Bound- 1 Round

Total Bound Remaining: 694
Total Unbound Remaining(Includes Morally Bound): 267

To lock up the nomination McCain would need to secure 675 of the 694 Bound delegates remaining. We need to spread this. The MSM is reporting that he is the GOP nominee.


And i wonder if the campaign is spending any money on advertising in these remaining places..:confused:

[BlueAngel]

What happens at the convention, for example lets say you have 20 bound delegates in a state where it's winner takes all and 12 of them are Ron Paul supporters and they decide to risk legal attacks to vote for Ron Paul?

It depends on the state party rules.

NJGOP party rules say:

http://www.njgop.org/images/nj/Rules_for_Selection_of_Delegates_v1.pdf


RULE 5A(4) Censure of Delegates Who Fail to Abide by Commitment
Any delegate or alternate allocated and/or committed to a particular candidate by virtue
of the results of the February primary election who fails or refuses to act in accordance with their
allocation and/or commitment to that candidate as set forth herein shall be subject to censure by
the New Jersey Republican State Committee and/or the County Republican Committees. Censure
may include, among other things, being permanently barred from acting as a delegate or alternate
to any future National Convention of the Republican Party.


Censure is by the party, it is not the law. You'd never get to be a delegate again, have your name trashed in the party and the papers and maybe even have a brick thrown at your living room window.

If the party chose to pursue it in court, I don't believe they could win.

I also guess that other state party rules work the same. you have to check the rules in each state gop.

[BlueAngel]

Delegates are the bottom line.

If McCain does not get the 1,191 delegates needed to win the the nomination, it becomes a brokered convention and this is where delegates will matter and make the difference.

As bound delegates are released and free to vote for the candidate of their choice, this is where RP support will matter most. It falls in to the hands of the delegates.

Become a delegate and go to St. Paul to vote for Dr. Paul.

Side note: If you become a delegate and later find out that it will NOT be a brokered convention, you can decline to participate at the convention. Your spot is then given to an alternate.

No reason to waste time and money if you're not able to get RP elected.

[JordanQ72]

I got this from 'Wayne on Myspace' (http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=168006211&MyToken=7898b45a-115b-4946-8b45-caee653fc1d0)

[I]Subject: ACCURATE Delegate analysis (Brokered Convention)

Found this VERY INTERESTING and most excellent analysis at http://www.paulunteer.com :

I used numbers that actually favor McCain(the same one’s MSM uses) I gave him all the delegates from Florida even though not all of Florida’s delegate were “winner take all”. Anyway, I wrote this in TextEdit, I hope everything pastes lined up correctly.

Aside from just having 300 delegates missing and simply having some basic facts on binding wrong, this analysis works under the assumption that somehow no unbound delegate will vote for McCain. :rolleyes:

[KevinR]

can't paul give everyone who switches to him against the rules a pardon? :]

[Vooch]

Thanks for posting the exact NJ Party rules - People, lets understand any delegate can vote however he wants to at the convention. The recourse isn't that the delegate will go to jail or pay a fine. The only recourse the RNC has is to take away your cushy patronage job...................

Think about it - how many RP delegates give a hoot about patronage jobs.

Let us not forget that it wasn't until the 1970's that the Party Conventions became simply cheering matches for the anointed nominee. Before that time, every single convention was broked, some more than others.

[BlueAngel]

Thanks for posting the exact NJ Party rules - People, lets understand any delegate can vote however he wants to at the convention. The recourse isn't that the delegate will go to jail or pay a fine. The only recourse the RNC has is to take away your cushy patronage job...................

Think about it - how many RP delegates give a hoot about patronage jobs.

Let us not forget that it wasn't until the 1970's that the Party Conventions became simply cheering matches for the anointed nominee. Before that time, every single convention was broked, some more than others.

You're welcome.

Now, how do we get people to become delegates? Have people given up on the campaign?

[Alex Libman]

Brokered convention?! McCain is already polishing his acceptance speech...

We need to leap off the sinking GOP ship RIGHT NOW and jump onto a third party! It is our only chance!

[BlueAngel]

I think the point trying to be made here is not about winning a brokered convention, it's about winning through numbers and and voter opposition by delegates. Brokered convention or not.

Isn't this the Revolution?

Why does it seem as if so many have given up?


Brokered convention?! McCain is already polishing his acceptance speech...

We need to leap off the sinking GOP ship RIGHT NOW and jump onto a third party! It is our only chance!