Official 11 Aug Ames Straw Poll Thread

[jmarinara]

8/11/07 Ames Iowa

Ames GOP Straw Poll:

Give it your best shot at what the results will be.


Here's mine:

1. Mitt Romney Just way too much money dumped into this
2. Ron Paul The Machine shows it's strength
3. Sam Brownback Being from the Mid-west helps
4. Mike Huckabee Good showing at the debate in Iowa helps out
5. John McCain Lots of money, BUT, he's a fake conservative
6. Tom Tancredo Future VP candidate
7. Rudy Guiliani Don't be fooled, he's serious about the Caucus
8. Duncan Hunter Just, no, excitement
9. Fred Thompson Would be larger if he was actually a candidate
10. Tommy Thompson ROFL, being from WI, this guy is a JOKE
11. John Cox John who??

Did I miss someone?

There you have it, let's hear yours.

[MozoVote]

I would put McCain under Tancredo (Tan has more hard core support, and I think people know McCain's candidacy is on a life raft).

Paul might come in a close 3rd to Brownback, who is a more regional candidate and I think will edge out Huckabee.

[DeadheadForPaul]

I won't take a guess but let me say that our campaign will continue regardless if we get 2nd or we get last

[AlexAmore]

Fred Thompson will be much higher than that imo. Otherwise I hope what you said comes true...except Ron Paul wins the whole Gaddamn thing! :D

[jmarinara]

I won't take a guess but let me say that our campaign will continue regardless if we get 2nd or we get last

Amen and amen!!!!

[robatsu]

McCain is dead meat, and, as much as he deserves it, I feel a little bad, because he is a standup Naval Officer guy, not a draft dodging Romney/Giuliani bastard. But he drank the immigration koolaid.

So he is just holding out for matching funds so he can retire debt free. Otherwise, all bets are off. RP might be 2d, might be 7ht, no one knows. which is really making this fun.

[yongrel]

I'm just hoping for an RP finish in the top 6.

[DeadheadForPaul]

McCain is dead meat, and, as much as he deserves it, I feel a little bad, because he is a standup Naval Officer guy, not a draft dodging Romney/Giuliani bastard. But he drank the immigration koolaid.

So he is just holding out for matching funds so he can retire debt free. Otherwise, all bets are off. RP might be 2d, might be 7ht, no one knows. which is really making this fun.

I agree. I think McCain is toast and he knows it. I feel bad for him because I think deep down he is a pretty decent guy and served our country. He's a hell of a lot better than Rudy or Mitt. However, he did sell his soul to the neo-cons.

I really dont know how some of the 2nd tier candidates will do. Tommy Thompson went to every county in Iowa and a bunch of the others like Tancredo are throwing all their funds into Iowa. We'll see how it goes down

You wont be disappointed if you have no expectations. Just take the results and roll with them. This is a positive campaign and we are on the upswing

[Syren123]

McCain is dead meat, and, as much as he deserves it, I feel a little bad, because he is a standup Naval Officer guy, not a draft dodging Romney/Giuliani bastard. But he drank the immigration koolaid.


And for that he must pay. Unforgiveable.

[Lord Xar]

tancredo future vp, no ron for me. anyways

mitt
brown
huk
paul
tan
mccain
blah
blah

Hamadeh.. no matter what you feel for tancredo, EVERY SINGLE OTHER TOP TIER CANDIDATE thinks AND will do the same thing.. Tancredo said it, but everyone else (besdies Ron Paul) are behind that same exact feeling - they just have better PR people...

They are all for NAU/CFR and the agenda for all is iran/syria next... that is NO secret.. so, do not let go of Ron Paul.....

[stevedasbach]

Here are my predictions EXCLUDING Ron:
1. Romney 7000-8000 (about the same as Bush in 1999)
2. Brownback 3000-4000 (Full buses would total 5000 -- won't be full)
3-5. Huckabee, Tancredo, T. Thompson 2000-3000 (hard to predict the order)
Hucakbee - one report of 100 buses - another saying he couldn't rent any
Tancredo has 40 buses and a lot of enthusiasm
T. Thompson - 75 buses - campaigned throughout state - but no enthusiam
6. Giuliani 1000-1500
7. F. Thompson 500-1000
8. Hunter 500-1000
9-10. McCain & Cox 100-200

As for Ron, he's the hardest to predict. I think he'll fall somewhere in the 2000-3000 range along with Huckabee, T. Thompson, and Tancredo. So best case 3rd -- worst case 6th, with not a lot of distance between the candidates.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

How does this bus thing work?

[foofighter20x]

Predictions? Reactions? Discuss.

[Bradley in DC]

Tommy Thompson is the first to drop out--as early as this weekend. Unless Brownback and Huckabee come in 2nd and 3rd, one of them is out. Duncan Hunter's already out, he just doesn't know it yet...

[Razmear]

Prediction 1: Mitt Romney spends over 6 million dollars, wins poll by only 3 votes, has to sell his house and live in The MittMobile.
Prediction 2: Ron Paul takes second place, Mitt buys a 6 pack, gets drunk off of 2 beers, crashes MittMobile, has to move in with Tagg.
Prediction 3: Ron Paul moves into White House on my 41st birthday, Jan 20 2009, no other presents are needed.

eb

[jmarinara]

tancredo future vp, no ron for me. anyways


Sorry, I wasn't clear when I said this, but all I meant to imply was that Tancredo is running like he wants to get a VP nod from whoever wins.

Just my opinion.

[Cowlesy]

Holy cheese, I didn't those other guys rented that many buses. Good grief.

[jmarinara]

Here's mine:

1. Mitt Romney Just way too much money dumped into this
2. Ron Paul The Machine shows it's strength
3. Sam Brownback Being from the Mid-west helps
4. Mike Huckabee Good showing at the debate in Iowa helps out
5. John McCain Lots of money, BUT, he's a fake conservative
6. Tom Tancredo Future VP candidate
7. Rudy Guiliani Don't be fooled, he's serious about the Caucus
8. Duncan Hunter Just, no, excitement
9. Fred Thompson Would be larger if he was actually a candidate
10. Tommy Thompson ROFL, being from WI, this guy is a JOKE
11. John Cox John who??

Taking a cue from BradinDC. . . .

Regardless of where we finish, only Romney, Paul, Brownback, McCain, Guiliani, and Fred Thompson (if he's actually a candidate), will be left after the straw poll. Tancredo may stick around, but I kinda doubt it.

This thinning of the herd will have a strange effect on the race, not sure how to read it. They may try to spin Paul as a stubborn hanger-on with no chance, or as a legit top tier candidate.

I guess the better we do today the more likely we are to be taken seriously. :rolleyes:

[jmarinara]

Holy cheese, I didn't those other guys rented that many buses. Good grief.

Yeah, uhhhh, do we have buses??

[Tn...Andy]

"How does this bus thing work?"


I'm curious too....is the voting ONLY in Ames ?

Are candidates spending money to charter buses to pick people up around the state and bus them into Ames ?

[Razmear]

Yes and Yes, Romney has spent about 6 million just to win this non-binding beauty contest.

[LibertyEagle]

Prediction 1: Mitt Romney spends over 6 million dollars, wins poll by only 3 votes, has to sell his house and live in The MittMobile.
Prediction 2: Ron Paul takes second place, Mitt buys a 6 pack, gets drunk off of 2 beers, crashes MittMobile, has to move in with Tagg.
Prediction 3: Ron Paul moves into White House on my 41st birthday, Jan 20 2009, no other presents are needed.

eb

I like these. :) Let's go with these. Yeah.

[LibertyEagle]

Yeah, uhhhh, do we have buses??

No.

[Darren McFillintheBlank]

..

[Razmear]

Will any of the news channels or C-SPAN have live coverage of the Straw Poll?

CSpan will be covering the whole event starting at about 12:30

eb

[Darren McFillintheBlank]

..

[Jon S]

Thanks Raz.

I hope that's C-SPAN or C-SPAN 2 and not C-SPAN 3.

haha i have to wonder when c-span started getting enough views to make a second and third channel. i mean mtv just recently made mtv-3 didn't they. and all c-span 2 does is show hearings about books, at least every time i watch it.

[Darren McFillintheBlank]

..

[markpa]

No doubt Mitt's going to run away with it if he spent 6 million. I have to think money talks in a vote that is based on buying votes. I am interested in knowing what Ron spent on the event, since I'm sure he spent far less then others.

[Shink]

Holy cheese, I didn't those other guys rented that many buses. Good grief.

I swear, those buses ARE NOT going to be full! Seriously, like with the Mitt buses as an example, don't they pretty much go and get people that want to go? That would probably put them on weird paths, it'd be kinda like the buses in school that went out into the country and brought back 10 kids.

[Slugg]

No doubt Mitt's going to run away with it if he spent 6 million. I have to think money talks in a vote that is based on buying votes. I am interested in knowing what Ron spent on the event, since I'm sure he spent far less then others.

I don't think those numbers have been released yet, but I'm willing to bet he spent even less than McCain who had to drop out of the poll to save some face....

[Shink]

I bet he spent ballpark~75,000 or less, which he just raised that in one day recently anyway.:D

[Slugg]

I bet he spent ballpark~75,000 or less, which he just raised that in one day recently anyway.:D

I bet he spent more like 250,000 or something....it was 15,000 to enter the straw poll alone...then the rental of all the equipment, radio ads, tv ads, (not sure if they did Newspaper ads or not), plus gas, flights, and food for everyone, the 800 tickets....it gets expensive quick....:(

[Slugg]

There was a thread a while back that had a link to a kernel vote or something? They were gonig to update it every hour...any word on that?

[Shink]

I bet he spent more like 250,000 or something....it was 15,000 to enter the straw poll alone...then the rental of all the equipment, radio ads, tv ads, (not sure if they did Newspaper ads or not), plus gas, flights, and food for everyone, the 800 tickets....it gets expensive quick....:(

D'oh, forgot about the tickets. Oh well, his funds will be fine. There will be (and probably is currently) massive surges of donations.

[Slugg]

D'oh, forgot about the tickets. Oh well, his funds will be fine. There will be (and probably is currently) massive surges of donations.

Yeah, I'm sure the money situation is 'fine' (so to speak)....let's just keep those donations going though!:D

[Bergie Bergeron]

http://www.students4paul.com Donate for Ron Paul's birthday ;)

[Darren McFillintheBlank]

..

[Marc Scott Emery]

I'm listening to all the Ames action Live on http:///ronpaulradio.com The sound is great. I'll be listening all day! Woo-hoo!

My guess?

Romney with 30% 12,000votes
Giuliani with 12% 4,800 votes
Fred Thompson 10% 4,000 votes
Huckabee with 9% 3,600 votes
Paul with 8% 3,200 votes
Brownback 7.8% 3,000 votes
McCain 7.4% 2,800
Tancredo 5.% 2,000
T. Thompson 5% 1,900
Duncan Hunter 1.5% 600

If the above happens, I think this would be a great victory. Being in the Top 5, beating McCain, it shows Ron Paul is on the up slope and that his supporters show INTENSITY, a good omen with 5 months of primary campaigning to go.

[Johnnybags]

a marvelous speech while your wife was hospitalized. The audience simply does not know what to make of you yet, they are looking for leaders instead of leading. We will not quit, we will get you every penny needed to stay in and fight the good fight.

[LibertyEagle]

I bet he spent more like 250,000 or something....it was 15,000 to enter the straw poll alone...then the rental of all the equipment, radio ads, tv ads, (not sure if they did Newspaper ads or not), plus gas, flights, and food for everyone, the 800 tickets....it gets expensive quick....:(

Yeah, I would bet it's at least that.

[LibertyEagle]

http://www.students4paul.com Donate for Ron Paul's birthday ;)

I donated directly to the campaign. I'd like to see how much the actual students can raise this time, ON THEIR OWN. If we log everything we donate there, it isn't a good representation of what the students are doing.