Ron Paul Video Anaylsis

[killatop]

If this has been threaded before just let it die.

Ron talked about the convention like it didn't have much of a chance
it starts at 3:45

His he hinting to after the convention if he doesn't get it and after a huge march and number one selling book...i mean if all this comes together ..RP will potentially be a rock star by the time the convention is over...so does that propel a third party run to win the white house? It kinda sounded like it to me...
Here is the order of events:
1. RP book comes out and is bestseller - April 30 - May
2. RP March is a huge success - May - June
3. Huck and Mc100 mudslinging occurs and the dirt on each makes both very unpopular still though MC100 will win the convention - Now till convention
4. Obama Clinton war has taken dirty to a new level and the Country sees through them also - Now till Convention
5. Ron Runs 3rd party against both clowns and wins? - November

That said I'm not one that thinks RP should run third party because I would rather him save my republican party. Either way I'm on board and will see everyone in D.C. in a few months.

EDIT - Is it even possible to run as 3rd party and win as a Republican congressman in Texas?

[constitutional]

I'm telling you, #1 selling book and a huge rally at D.C. : A possible shot at the nomination because GOP can't ignore it. They can't win w/o RP.

[nate895]

I'm telling you, #1 selling book and a huge rally at D.C. : A possible shot at the nomination because GOP can't ignore it. They can't win w/o RP. The last thing they want is RP running Independent.

The only thing that would make him run Independent is if he loses his Congressional primary, which is unlikely at worst.

A brokered convention may still happen, given Huckabee wins certain states, and we could win in Pennsylvania if the nomination is still in the air and Huckabee can't turn in his 2,000 signatures today, if he has them, which I doubt he does.

[OferNave]

This isn't about a third party run. Let that die. He said no. He can't run for Congress unless he stays Republican.

This is about winning the PRESIDENCY.

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

3. Huck and Mc100 mudslinging occurs and the dirt on each makes both very unpopular still though MC100 will win the convention - Now till convention
4. Obama Clinton war has taken dirty to a new level and the Country sees through them also - Now till Convention

You can probably remove those two. Huck and McCain are teammates. I'm not sure what Huck's getting from it, but I think he sold cheap, about the time he started picking up campaign advice from cfr people.

Obama and Clinton are just busy deciding that Obama will be the VP candidate.

[tangent4ronpaul]

McCain has to average winning 50% or better of the delegates to win the nomination or it's a brokered convention. He's not getting that and is loosing ground to Huck.

or

Huck has to win over 90% of the delegates or it's a brokered convention. ditto if Romney jumps back in and tried to win it.

Paul can't win the nomination outright at this point, so his only hope is a brokered convention.

Romney is 30 Mil in the red.
McCain is 1.5 Mil in the red and had to use his mailing list as collateral to get a bank loan.
Huck is basically broke.
Paul has about 5 Mil in the bank and has never spent money he does not have.

Now what were Paul's chances again?

-n

ps: where we have to worry is if McCain can get one of the others to be his VP - that's the only way he can cinch the nomination.

-n

[nate895]

McCain has to average winning 50% or better of the delegates to win the nomination or it's a brokered convention.

or

Huck has to win over 90% of the delegates or it's a brokered convention. ditto if Romney jumps back in and tried to win it.

Paul can't win the nomination outright at this point, so his only hope is a brokered convention.

Romney is 30 Mil in the red.
McCain is 1.5 Mil in the red and had to use his mailing list as collateral to get a bank loan.
Huck is basically broke.
Paul has about 5 Mil in the bank and has never spent money he does not have.

Now what were Paul's chances again?

-n

Romney 30M in debt to himself, that doesn't count, plus I doubt he'd jump back in because the deadline to get on the in most states has past and he has withdrawn his name from some of those states.

[tangent4ronpaul]

Romney 30M in debt to himself, that doesn't count, plus I doubt he'd jump back in because the deadline to get on the in most states has past and he has withdrawn his name from some of those states.

withdrawn is some states? - news to me - what states?

-n

[killatop]

Well I'm glad it at least sounds like he won't run 3rd party...like I said I really don't want him too. Just looking at the video though it sounded different...when he said all the way...looking past the convention.... I'm thinking he is just talking about the future and getting more people in the capital so he's not voting alone all the time ;)

[nate895]

withdrawn is some states? - news to me - what states?

-n

The states that he could have.

He is not going on the Pennsylvania ballot (and Huckabee might not be either), and he has withdrawn his name from the ballot in West Virginia already, and has not bothered to file in any other state past Mississippi. Unless he wants to run a write in campaign, he'd have to jump back in now if he wanted to be on ballots.