Naraku
02-11-2008, 09:31 PM
Some people have put out misinformation on how delegates are attributed in the next states, mainly Jon King on CNN said most states left are proportional, however they are not and actually if the cards are played right, Ron Paul could get a significant number of delegates.
Of particular interest here is Texas. Since Paul will be running in Texas anyway as an incumbent candidate for his district and we have 16% precinct leaders it's possible to actually have an upset here delegate-wise.
Here's how delegates are awarded according to The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/TX-R.phtml#0304):
* 96 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 32 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
o If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 3 of the district's delegates. [General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings Section 8.a.]
o If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the most votes (plurality) receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the next highest number of votes receives 1 delegate. However, if the plurality winner receives more than 20% and the number of votes received by the next highest candidate is less than 20%, the plurality winner receives 3 delegates. [Section 8.b.]
o If no candidate receives 20% of the vote then the top 3 vote getters each receive 1 delegate. [Section 8.c.]
* 41 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 31 bonus delegates) are to be allocated to the presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
o If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 41 at-large delegates. [Section 9.a.]
o If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the 41 at-large delegates are allocated proportionally among those candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Section 9.b.]
o If no candidate receives 20% of the vote, allocate the 41 at-large delegates proportionally. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Section 9.c.]
In other words if Paul can get second and Huckabee first, Paul will get 32 delegates out of Texas districts and a large portion of the at-large delegates. One thing not completely clear is how the at-large are allocated since they're done in a caucus. If they're allocated like a regular caucus it could mean Paul gets an even larger amount. On CNN they played funny business by giving Huckabee 50%, rather than an outright majority and had McCain second in all of them.
However, consider what would happen if McCain can't get any delegates in Texas. It would be an embarassment. Also, despite what he said, very few are actually proportional.
In other words, the number crunchers are effing things up, the numbers don't favor McCain, they don't favor anyone, it's still a matter of who wins the states.
Of particular interest here is Texas. Since Paul will be running in Texas anyway as an incumbent candidate for his district and we have 16% precinct leaders it's possible to actually have an upset here delegate-wise.
Here's how delegates are awarded according to The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/TX-R.phtml#0304):
* 96 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 32 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
o If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 3 of the district's delegates. [General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings Section 8.a.]
o If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the most votes (plurality) receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the next highest number of votes receives 1 delegate. However, if the plurality winner receives more than 20% and the number of votes received by the next highest candidate is less than 20%, the plurality winner receives 3 delegates. [Section 8.b.]
o If no candidate receives 20% of the vote then the top 3 vote getters each receive 1 delegate. [Section 8.c.]
* 41 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 31 bonus delegates) are to be allocated to the presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
o If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 41 at-large delegates. [Section 9.a.]
o If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the 41 at-large delegates are allocated proportionally among those candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Section 9.b.]
o If no candidate receives 20% of the vote, allocate the 41 at-large delegates proportionally. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Section 9.c.]
In other words if Paul can get second and Huckabee first, Paul will get 32 delegates out of Texas districts and a large portion of the at-large delegates. One thing not completely clear is how the at-large are allocated since they're done in a caucus. If they're allocated like a regular caucus it could mean Paul gets an even larger amount. On CNN they played funny business by giving Huckabee 50%, rather than an outright majority and had McCain second in all of them.
However, consider what would happen if McCain can't get any delegates in Texas. It would be an embarassment. Also, despite what he said, very few are actually proportional.
In other words, the number crunchers are effing things up, the numbers don't favor McCain, they don't favor anyone, it's still a matter of who wins the states.