The Media Lies! This WILL be a BROKERED CONVENTION!

[Thomas_DK]

This just off dailypaul.com (http://www.dailypaul.com/node/37070):

The Media Lies! This WILL be a BROKERED CONVENTION!
Posted February 11th, 2008 by Jops27
Look, I just got done volunteering at the local GOP typing in freaking names for all of the precincts that voted. I straight up asked them if the Straw Poll gives a candidate any delegates at all.

She said, "No Way! The media isn't telling the truth and we have told them time and time again that this isn't how it works. All it is is a popularity contest. The real delegates get selected at the State Convention."

Men, ONWARD! It is time to get out of the fox holes and move FORWARD! CHARGE THEIR POSITIONS! TAKE NO PRISONERS!

We are being told a blatent LIE. We are WINNING! Can't you SEE???? RP has more grassroots people in his campaign than any other candidate. BE A DELEGATE! Go to all of the County and State conventions. Get on the wait lists if you aren' selected.

Right now isn't the time to quit. Right now is the time for the counter offensive. We're on the MARCH and the Empire is on the RUN!

LET"S DO THIS!

[JordanQ72]

All it is is a popularity contest. The real delegates get selected at the State Convention.

Who then for the most part must vote according to the results of this popularity contest. Come on guys, we've been over this. 80+% of the delegates are bound for the first vote.

[CrazyRonPaulSupporter]

Of course the media lies. It's their job!

:cool:

.

[mkeller]

The Media Lies! This WILL be a BROKERED CONVENTION!

Knew the first part already. :) Let's hope the second part is true, too!

[No1ButPaul08]

This is garbage. Who knows what state they are talking about. Delegate rules are different by state. 75% of the delegates are bound to a candidate on the first ballot

[affa]

Who then for the most part must vote according to the results of this popularity contest. Come on guys, we've been over this. 80+% of the delegates are bound for the first vote.

Everytime I read one of your posts, I wonder who you're planning on voting for.

[No1ButPaul08]

Everytime I read one of your posts, I wonder who you're planning on voting for.

Being Realistic = Troll

At least around here anyway

[Banana]

Hmm, confused.

One post somewhere said that more delegates were unbound to bound (something like 60% to 40%), as a backdoor to avoid nominating a loser.

Now, it's 70% delegates being bound on the first ballot.

Where would one go to verify this?

[affa]

Being Realistic = Troll

At least around here anyway

If we were being 'realistic', this movement never would have begun. I reject your declaration of what is and what is not realistic.

[Richandler]

The only way there is a brokered convention is if Huckabee runs away with these last states. Otherwise you are fooling yourself.

[Deborah K]

Then why did RP state in his letter that there will most likely NOT be a brokered convention? Wouldn't he know?

[Ex Post Facto]

If we were being 'realistic', this movement never would have begun. I reject your declaration of what is and what is not realistic.

The greatest point of the Day.

[Join The Paul Side]

If we were being 'realistic', this movement never would have begun. I reject your declaration of what is and what is not realistic.

I concur with your rejection. I hate internet wiseguys. :mad:

[kaleidoscope eyes]

If we were being 'realistic', this movement never would have begun. I reject your declaration of what is and what is not realistic.
+100
I think "Realistic" thinking would have killed this race at the starting block! ;)

[vitaminb12]

I tend to agree with Alex Jones, that even if there were a brokered convention, Paul wouldn't be a factor. Can you imagine how the media would portray the situation if a bunch of hidden Paul delegates "stole" the nomination on the second ballot? He would be a criminal in the eyes of the MSM, and subsequently the public.

Our only shot is if McCain gets tripped up by a scandal. Even then it would be tough.

[affa]

Anyone who posts that we should give up is the enemy.

I don't care when you joined this forum.
I don't care how many posts you have.
I don't care what you claim to know.
I don't care who you claim to be.
I don't care what you've done.

I care about who you are NOW. This very moment. And if today you're posting that he has no chance, then you've always been the enemy and just didn't know it. I don't care what good will you've built up - you spill it all out across the floor the second you quit.

Because Ron Paul has not quit. He's been doing this for decades. The least you could do is stick it out until we see him elected.

I'm still in it to win it. Ron Paul 2008.

[affa]

I tend to agree with Alex Jones, that even if there were a brokered convention, Paul wouldn't be a factor. Can you imagine how the media would portray the situation if a bunch of hidden Paul delegates "stole" the nomination on the second ballot? He would be a criminal in the eyes of the MSM, and subsequently the public.

Our only shot is if McCain gets tripped up by a scandal. Even then it would be tough.

We deal with that bridge when we come to it.

For now, we soldier on.

They made the rules. They are the banker. They read the results of the hidden dice. They've played before.

If we beat them at this, at their own game, then they deserve to lose. And oh, do they deserve to lose.

[kigol]

Of course the media lies. It's their job!

:cool:

.

yup.

[JordanQ72]

And if today you're posting that he has no chance, then you've always been the enemy and just didn't know it.

So Ron Paul is 'the enemy'? Fantastic... And you're talking about others not being realistic. :rolleyes: I've read over Ron's assessment and looked over the various GOP rules and primary results so far and I concur with his assessment. The only even mathematically possible, not even plausible, scenario I've seen so far is if every single unpledged delegate votes against McCain and Huckabee sweeps every single remaining state. Tomorrow, after McCain actually sweeps up 110+ bound delegates, that scenario starts fading as well. After that, if you want to play off the possibility of McCain, Huckabee, and Romney dying, that's fine, but I'm being a bit more objective.

[nbhadja]

Then why did RP state in his letter that there will most likely NOT be a brokered convention? Wouldn't he know?

It has been confirmed that Ron Paul DID NOT write that letter.

[LandonCook]

HoRah!

[Ron Paul Fan]

JordanQ72 is the only one being realistic here and you should listen to him. McCain is going to sweep tomorrow and that's just inevitable. Paul isn't even actively campaigning in primary states anymore. What I find surprising is that you guys want to completely circumvent who the people have voted for as their Republican nominee and instead put in place a guy who has yet to win a state and only has 14-42 delegates thus far. I would love for Ron Paul to be the nominee, but it just isn't going to happen. The people have spoken and they have overwhelmingly chosen John McCain.

[affa]

So Ron Paul is 'the enemy'? Fantastic... And you're talking about others not being realistic. :rolleyes:

#!%^ you.
Ron Paul has NEVER quit.
Don't you dare put words in my mouth.

[LukeP]

It has been confirmed that Ron Paul DID NOT write that letter.

"How blessed I am to be associated with you. Carol, of course, sends her love as well."

It is signed Ron and written in first person throughout. I'm sorry but it is posted on the front of the website homepage. There has already been skepticism regarding Dr. Paul's newsletter. I'm sorry but it is not acceptable to say he didn't write this. Then how are you supposed to believe he's ever written anything?

[darkdruid]

When they say delegates are committed for the first round they mean at the National Committee!! That means not district, or state.

[Thomas Paine]

There will be no brokered convention unless McCain strokes out before the date of the GOP convention.

[JordanQ72]

It has been confirmed that Ron Paul DID NOT write that letter.

You know what? If you're going to claim a letter written in the first person, with personal comments, posted to his official campaign website, for 4 days now, is somehow beyond his editorial control, then I don't care. Every single person who has ever said his campaign was completely incompetent has been dead on right. Also, I dare you to then find a way to deflect claims that all of his writings are not his own based on your own reasoning.

[affa]

You know what? If you're going to claim a letter written in the first person, with personal comments, posted to his official campaign website, for 4 days now, is somehow beyond his editorial control, then I don't care. Every single person who has ever said his campaign was completely incompetent has been dead on right. Also, I dare you to then find a way to deflect claims that all of his writings are not his own based on your own reasoning.

So you hate the campaign, don't think Ron Paul has even a slight chance of the presidency, don't believe Carol Paul, create divisiveness on the forums, and... why are you here again?

Oh, that's right... to bless us with your 'realism'.

I fart in your general direction.

[JordanQ72]

Don't you dare put words in my mouth.

Let's see, I point out that the scenarios under which a brokered convention would occur are highly unlikely. You call me a traitor or some such nonsense.

So why does this not apply to Ron Paul when he says the exact same thing? The OP title is completely messed up in this sense. It's not the media lying, it would mean Ron Paul himself is lying to us.

[JordanQ72]

So you hate the campaign, don't think Ron Paul has even a slight chance of the presidency, create divisiveness on the forums, and... why are you here again?

Oh, that's right... to bless us with your 'realism'.

I fart in your general direction.

I've noticed you haven't been able to actually respond to a single one of the points I ever raise IN ANY THREAD. You just troll in every single thread I post constantly screaming I'm wrong and a traitor and such garbage without being able to give me the slightest reasoning as to why.

You're delusional, FLAT OUT. This is how I will now reply to any of your comments on any of my posts. You have never shown anything to the contrary.


don't believe Carol Paul,

Where? You SHOW ME something from Carol Paul. All I've seen is some nonsense from the same damn poster that claimed there was a billionaire financing Ron Paul only a few weeks ago. You're right, in my eyes, that person has no damn credibility to deal with.

[Molly1]

Everyone become delegates in your state!

[affa]

I've noticed you haven't been able to actually respond to a single one of the points I ever raise IN ANY THREAD. You just fucking troll in every single thread I post constantly screaming I'm wrong and a traitor and such garbage without being able to give me the slightest reasoning as to why.

You're delusional, FLAT OUT. This is how I will now reply to any of your comments on any of my posts. You have never shown anything to the contrary.

I fart again in your general direction.

[JordanQ72]

I fart again in your general direction.

Good job kiddo, with supporters like you it really escapes me as to why we've done so poorly. I'll let you have the last word you seem to so desperately need.

[LibertyEagle]

Our only shot is if McCain gets tripped up by a scandal. Even then it would be tough.

Think about what you just said for a minute. McCain is as unelectable as one can get. There are a variety of different groups out to get him. From Vietnam Vets, to anti-illegal alien groups to his bomb, bomb, bomb Iran spectacle, etc.

This guy is the most trippable candidate I have ever seen in my life.

[affa]

Good job kiddo, with supporters like you it really escapes me as to why we've done so poorly. I'll let you have the last word you seem to so desperately need.

And I'll take it.

You tell us Ron Paul has no chance.

If we take your advice, we give up.

That makes you wrong.

Period.

[Zeeder]

It really doesn't matter if we win the nomination or not. If we can have several 100 delegates chanting "Ron paul" or "Mccain is a liberal" during his speech that would be all worth it frankly. Then we carry on electing congressman. We want them to know we are here.


And don't tell me for one second that if we have enough ron paul delegates we couldn't make motions etc... THAT is what we want. We want ron paul a speech at the convention. That is a win right there people. Now go become a delegate. Minnesota has the mall of america, you can do some shopping.

[No1ButPaul08]

If we were being 'realistic', this movement never would have begun. I reject your declaration of what is and what is not realistic.

What isn't realistic is, "The Media Lies! This WILL be a BROKERED CONVENTION," when in fact, that is certainly not the case. Those out you who are so sure of this are welcome to go bet on the brokered convention at intrade where you will receive $20 for every $1 bet.

And the guy said, "Who then for the most part must vote according to the results of this popularity contest. Come on guys, we've been over this. 80+% of the delegates are bound for the first vote."

The number is 75.5%, so he was off there, but certaintly much closer than the less than 50% you see around this board. For this you wonder if he is voting for Ron Paul.

[affa]

For this you wonder if he is voting for Ron Paul.

Yes. I wonder that for anyone on these boards telling us we have no chance. If they believe that, why are they here?

Here's the deal - there are plenty of posts going both ways on the delegate issue. Now, I think we can accept as a given that there will be some people in here spreading misinformation. So who to believe? The person essentially telling us to give it up?

Ron Paul is still in the running. He said 'nearly', not 'no' chance and word on the street is that he didn't write the article in the first place.

Some question whether Carol Paul actually wrote that email - well, one piece of evidence she did is that the poster accidentally left her email address in the reply for about 30 seconds. I saw it, requested that he delete it, and he did. That tends to add some level of believability in my book.

At the end of the day, one can only judge a member of these boards based on their posts.

As long as the GOP National Convention is not done and over with, anyone telling us we have no chance is no friend of mine.

[Mordan]

Being Realistic = Troll

At least around here anyway

molish comment.

Washinghton wasn't realistic either.

[Avalon]

molish comment.

Washinghton wasn't realistic either. Yes it was. It's a state with both a caucus and primary, ie, a combination that provides the lowest turnout for the caucus. Our passionate supporters organized, trained, and turned out in numbers. I'd been hoping for it (along with a brokered convention) after Super Tuesday. Romney really hurt the chances for a brokered convention but as long as McCain doesn't sweep tomorrow, there's still a good chance (not that it will matter if we don't get out and win delegate positions).

[fabijo]

As long as the GOP National Convention is not done and over with, anyone telling us we have no chance is no friend of mine.

Some of the posts that you responded harshly to never said that there is no chance. When someone says that about 80% of the delegates are bound on the first ballot, that is just a fact. The point is that we still don't know. There may or may not be a brokered convention. I really hope there will be. Nobody can say for sure that there will not be a brokered convention. Also, nobody can say for sure that there will be a brokered convention.

I say we keep pushing for delegates either way. If there is a brokered convention, awesome! If there is not a brokered convention, at least we already put a crack in the GOP establishment. Keep pushing for more positions in the GOP and keep changing the platform one precinct at a time.

[PaulTriumph]

As long as the GOP National Convention is not done and over with, anyone telling us we have no chance is no friend of mine.

At the end of the day (or at least as of 6:30pm Central on 2/11/07), that message is still front and center on ronpaul2008.com. Even if RP himself didn't write it, he approved it and hasn't seen any reason to refute or remove it. At first I wondered if it was a mistake (especially given its timing, a day before a crucial primary we almost won). But it's still the message of Ron Paul and his campaign and those who take him seriously should take his words seriously.

I'm inclined to take the man at his word. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see him pull out a strategy to continue to challenge for the White House. But as it stands now, he says that the chances are "nearly zero". That doesn't mean he can't still be your friend, but it's disingenuous to assume he's hiding something and hope that he'll go against his own words.

What he DID do is to encourage us to take as many delegates as possible to the convention and fight on, not for the nomination, but "for our ideas". He is not the type to tilt at windmills- this man has been a professional in elections for decades. He has surveyed the field and has determined that the best chance for victory lies not in the White House this year, but in the ongoing struggle for the movement. And he encourages us to join him.

[Avalon]

a day before a crucial primary we almost won. Actually, we won the most delegates to the county conventions in WA so we did win the caucuses. It doesn't matter if the GOP refuses to release the results or the media refuses to find out and report it.

[PaulTriumph]

Actually, we won the most delegates to the county conventions in WA so we did win the caucuses. It doesn't matter if the GOP refuses to release the results or the media refuses to find out and report it.

Well, that's a good point- I guess I'm still smarting from the timing of the message and thinking about what could have been. I wish we could win a state (or states!) by such a large margin that the GOP and media can't ignore the results...

[HenryKnoxFineBooks]

What isn't realistic is, "The Media Lies! This WILL be a BROKERED CONVENTION," when in fact, that is certainly not the case. Those out you who are so sure of this are welcome to go bet on the brokered convention at intrade where you will receive $20 for every $1 bet.

And the guy said, "Who then for the most part must vote according to the results of this popularity contest. Come on guys, we've been over this. 80+% of the delegates are bound for the first vote."

The number is 75.5%, so he was off there, but certaintly much closer than the less than 50% you see around this board. For this you wonder if he is voting for Ron Paul.

Using this information, doest it mean that McCain may(perhaps,maybe,possibly,) actually need more than 1191 to ensure the nomination. If only 75% are bound in the first round, that means up to 25% may defect. Sooo, up to 300 may defect, so now he needs approx. 1500 to ensure.

Thanks, you have given me even more hope of a brokered convention.

[Bradley in DC]

Hmm, confused.

One post somewhere said that more delegates were unbound to bound (something like 60% to 40%), as a backdoor to avoid nominating a loser.

Now, it's 70% delegates being bound on the first ballot.

Where would one go to verify this?

Most of the rumors out there are false (including those from HQ); here is a summary of the good info:
http://www.gop.com/images/Press_State_Summaries.pdf

[fabijo]

Most of the rumors out there are false (including those from HQ); here is a summary of the good info:
http://www.gop.com/images/Press_State_Summaries.pdf

Yup. what he said. That's the paper I use immediately when I want to find out if a state's delegates are bound/unbound or when the delegates are actually chosen.

[HenryKnoxFineBooks]

Most of the rumors out there are false (including those from HQ); here is a summary of the good info:
http://www.gop.com/images/Press_State_Summaries.pdf

Good info here. Didnt realize Penn. and NC had unbound delegates. hint, hint.

[JordanQ72]

Using this information, doest it mean that McCain may(perhaps,maybe,possibly,) actually need more than 1191 to ensure the nomination. If only 75% are bound in the first round, that means up to 25% may defect. Sooo, up to 300 may defect, so now he needs approx. 1500 to ensure.

Thanks, you have given me even more hope of a brokered convention.

No. It's the difference between bound and unbound delegates. If he has 1191 bound delegates, he's set. Unbound is also a dubious term in most cases as there are traditions as to how some unbound delegates vote, it's why these scenarios where he gets 0 unbound delegates vote for him is so nonsensical. For example, the 3 RNC delegates per state by tradition simply vote with the majority of their state.

[hvac ak47]

No. It's the difference between bound and unbound delegates. If he has 1191 bound delegates, he's set. Unbound is also a dubious term in most cases as there are traditions as to how some unbound delegates vote, it's why these scenarios where he gets 0 unbound delegates vote for him is so nonsensical. For example, the 3 RNC delegates per state by tradition simply vote with the majority of their state.

Come on!! What do you suggest we do? Ron said he is still fighting for every vote and delegate he can get! Every Ron Paul supporter should be fighting for the same thing! What do you suggest and if you think its over why are you here??

[JordanQ72]

Come on!! What do you suggest we do?

Come up with a plausible strategy.

Why am I here? On the off chance someone DOES find some sort of sensible strategy to fly with. No, I don't have one. I've looked at the numbers, and it's extremely unlikely from my perspective. Every single other poster who has ever laid out the numbers for themselves has come to the same conclusions and been resoundingly called a troll and other bullshit.

All I see is unsourced pie in the sky numbers and delusional fairy tale scenarios. I'm calling people out on them because they'll get us nowhere. I'm trying to apply some grounding in the hopes someone does come up with a workable idea. If everyone here just falls into some sort of faulty groupthink that all the primaries so far are somehow meaningless and every unbound delegate is somehow going to vote against McCain, then we'll definitely lose.

One sensible idea I've seen around here is pushing Paul's vote being Huckabee in Virginia. Of course, this was met with all sorts of moaning and bitching when it's actually an idea that could help lead to a brokered convention.

[mikeycapz]

On cnn a few minutes ago they were showing graphs how it is impossible for Huckabee to catch McCain and they showed McCain with 873 delegates hahaa. They said if Huckabee wins every state left he still wont win. We all no McCain don't got no 873 delegates lol. I honestly think he has less than 700 and cnn's website shows him with something like 716.

[affa]

But as it stands now, he says that the chances are "nearly zero". That doesn't mean he can't still be your friend, but it's disingenuous to assume he's hiding something and hope that he'll go against his own words.


I was not talking about Ron Paul, nor did I indicate he should go against his own words.

[JordanQ72]

On cnn a few minutes ago they were showing graphs how it is impossible for Huckabee to catch McCain and they showed McCain with 873 delegates hahaa. They said if Huckabee wins every state left he still wont win. We all no McCain don't got no 873 delegates lol. I honestly think he has less than 700 and cnn's website shows him with something like 716.

The count on CNN's main page is a highly conservative estimate for the delegate totals. McCain could break 1000 delegates tomorrow in an even odds estimate as opposed to their 99.9% likelihood estimate.

[jp5065]

Using this information, doest it mean that McCain may(perhaps,maybe,possibly,) actually need more than 1191 to ensure the nomination. If only 75% are bound in the first round, that means up to 25% may defect. Sooo, up to 300 may defect, so now he needs approx. 1500 to ensure.

Thanks, you have given me even more hope of a brokered convention.


no

He still needs 1191 delegates, whether they are bound or unbound doesn't mean anything. He just has to have 1191 delegates vote for him at the convention.

Right now he has about 700 delegates bound to vote for him in at least the first ballot. Some are bound for longer.

[BlueCalico]

THE CONVENTION DOES NOT HAVE TO BE BROKERED! We can overturn Rules at the State Conventions. Google - [your state] Republican Convention. Look for your state information at ronpaul2008.com, States.

STUDY and LEARN!