Bound delegate Count thus far

[teshuah]

I don't know if this has been done yet, and I'm not searching for it ....

I tried, as best I could, to total up the number of delegates allocated to bound states according to their rules. I used the greenpapers website to help finding those numbers along with the pdf on the Ronpaul2008 website.

Here's what I came up with so far for the first round of voting:

McCain - 638 Bound Delegates
Huckabee - 204 Bound Delegates
Undeclared - 154 Delegates
Rmoney - 104 Bound Delegates
Paul - 10 Bound Delegates

That 638 Bound delegates is 553 delegates short of the 1191. He would need 553 bound delegates between now and then to secure the 1191 that the media is talking about.

Is it even possible then? Naysayers saying we're not going to have a brokered convention - with these numbers how is it not possible to have a brokered convention?

Huckabee says he will keep going until McCain gets 1191 delegates... is this 1191 the media talks about or 1191 secured, bound delegates?

[acptulsa]

I agree with you--not saying every number is correct, just saying that a brokered convention is not only still possible, but not at all unlikely. It would seem that Dr. Paul disagrees. If we keep spreading the word about McCain, however, there's an excellent chance that McCain will not win on the first or second round of voting--and let the games begin!

[No1ButPaul08]

I don't know if this has been done yet, and I'm not searching for it ....

I tried, as best I could, to total up the number of delegates allocated to bound states according to their rules. I used the greenpapers website to help finding those numbers along with the pdf on the Ronpaul2008 website.

Here's what I came up with so far for the first round of voting:

McCain - 638 Bound Delegates
Huckabee - 204 Bound Delegates
Undeclared - 154 Delegates
Rmoney - 104 Bound Delegates
Paul - 10 Bound Delegates

That 638 Bound delegates is 553 delegates short of the 1191. He would need 553 bound delegates between now and then to secure the 1191 that the media is talking about.

Is it even possible then? Naysayers saying we're not going to have a brokered convention - with these numbers how is it not possible to have a brokered convention?

Huckabee says he will keep going until McCain gets 1191 delegates... is this 1191 the media talks about or 1191 secured, bound delegates?

1191 bound or unbound. Many unbound delegates are state party leaders who will vote with their state. The other are mostly from caucus states. I have McCain at 728 total, of which i see him losing maybe 20, max.

[teshuah]

okay about 57 of those undeclared are party leaders in their states likely to vote with the state... so that is ~100 so far that are undeclared and could go to anyone in the first round of voting. I left Romney's in there because we're not sure in all the states as to if he will get them or not. I left out Michigan because of the post I read earlier that the candidate had to be actively campaigning in order to keep those delegates.

[JordanQ72]

He would need 553 bound delegates between now and then to secure the 1191 that the media is talking about.

Why? Under what crazy basis are you led to believe not a single unbound delegate will vote for McCain?

[teshuah]

My point is ...the media makes it look like he has all these delegates secured. I have no doubt that out of the remaining delegates he will get votes. I'm just trying to show how skewered things are compared to what we keep hearing over and over outside of this place.

[slamhead]

This just goes to show you we need to get involved in our local GOP groups and influence the party like they did in Alaska.

[AlexMerced]

I still think a brokered convention likely, whether a brokered convention would mean a ron paul nomination I'm not sure of the odds, but a brokered convention would still be cool

[David40]

Could someone please explain what a Bound Delegate is and just exactly how "bound" are they? What's the penalty if they change their mind and vote for someone else?
Thanks

[nate895]

Could someone please explain what a Bound Delegate is and just exactly how "bound" are they? What's the penalty if they change their mind and vote for someone else?
Thanks

Depends on the state. Most states it means absolutely nothing, others it means you absolutely cannot, under any circumstances, vote for another candidate.

[Zera]

Depends on the state. Most states it means absolutely nothing, others it means you absolutely cannot, under any circumstances, vote for another candidate.

I believe the toughest state is Georgia. There, you can get fined up to $1000 or a few months in prison.

I think it would be worth it.

[nate895]

I believe the toughest state is Georgia. There, you can get fined up to $1000 or a few months in prison.

I think it would be worth it.

If there was no other way, but if there are enough votes to send it to ballot 2, that is unnecessary.

[Banana]

It bears reminding that several of bound delegates hasn't even been elected in some of states. Out of 2380 delegates, 1359 or 57% are elected at state conventions, where RP supporters can have a chance to put their people there.

So keep storming the caucus/conventions in your state! This is true even for some states where the voitng day was past.

[GoPaul08]

I don't know if this has been done yet, and I'm not searching for it ....

I tried, as best I could, to total up the number of delegates allocated to bound states according to their rules. I used the greenpapers website to help finding those numbers along with the pdf on the Ronpaul2008 website.

Here's what I came up with so far for the first round of voting:

McCain - 638 Bound Delegates
Huckabee - 204 Bound Delegates
Undeclared - 154 Delegates
Rmoney - 104 Bound Delegates
Paul - 10 Bound Delegates

That 638 Bound delegates is 553 delegates short of the 1191. He would need 553 bound delegates between now and then to secure the 1191 that the media is talking about.

Is it even possible then? Naysayers saying we're not going to have a brokered convention - with these numbers how is it not possible to have a brokered convention?

Huckabee says he will keep going until McCain gets 1191 delegates... is this 1191 the media talks about or 1191 secured, bound delegates?


What do you mean is it even possible. You don't just have to get 1191 BOUND delegates. And as much as we may want to beleive, most delegates are going to vote with their state's primaries. ESPECIALLY the three from each state.

I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but this is not the first primary season where people thought that there was going to be a brokered convention. Many times even FAR more likely than this election. It doesn't happen. McCain hand picks a lot of those "technically not bound...but for all intents and purposes ARE bound" delegates. And it is not like he doesn't KNOW that Ron Paul supporters are trying to sneak in. He will be very careful.

You can do all the twisted math and assumptions you want, but that is not going to change that fact that...like Ron Paul himself says...John McCain is going to get the nomination.

As for people being willing to go to jail...not going to happen. What would the point be? If it happened, the GOP, and the Republican voters would see it as STEALING an election. This would cost Ron Paul more than a few votes from the right. And there is no one single Democrat that will vote for him since the only thing that Ron Paul and liberals have in common at all is the war. They can't be farther from each other on everything else. So Ron Paul would lose the general election. So why go to jail for nothing? But it is a moot point. It's not happeing. (Seriously...do you think you know more about the process than Ron Paul himself? Pretty egotisitcal of you if you ask me. Sone of us have been around for more than 1 election process in the past. Some of us are not 16 years old and know that this year is NOT unique. )

Again...if you truly think you are right...then make some money on it. You can get something like 50-1 odds at this point. You put up just $100 and when what you say is DEFIITELY going to happen happens, you will win $5000.


Enthusiasm is great. But going so overboard with that enthusiasm that you give ammunition to the haters is a BAD thing. You are not goin gto get anyone to listen to what you have to say if ou give them a reason right off the bat to not take you seriously.

[Banana]

McCain hand picks a lot of those "technically not bound...but for all intents and purposes ARE bound" delegates. And it is not like he doesn't KNOW that Ron Paul supporters are trying to sneak in. He will be very careful.

As matter of fact, 1359 delegates slots are elected via conventions, something where grassroots can take over. The remaining slots are hand-picked by candidate, by state party committee or election board, directly on ballot (with or without preference to a candidate) or by virtue of position.

Delegates is ours to lose. And I've already pointed out before that Paul doesn't need a nomination to win- having a strong showing at convention and reforming the party is the objective.