Realistically, how well will RP do?

[Starks]

Does he have the numbers to come out in first place at Ames?

[Akus]

I don't think he stands a chance. I mean come on, his ideas are crazy, his online support is just that, a spammer or two. He will not win anything, Stepanopolis was dead on.


















Actually, I expect him to come second. A very very close second.

[njandrewg]

odds are majorly against him for first place, Mitt has invested way too much into it. And so did the other candidates. If he is in the top 5 I'll be glad

[FluffyUnbound]

I'm hoping for % support in the teens. Whether that will be good enough for second, third or fourth depends on how much oxygen Romney sucks up.

[ctb619]

We need to hope for the best, but also try to temper expectations. First place is highly unlikely based on how much time and money RP has spent in Iowa.

[Slugg]

Does he have the numbers to come out in first place at Ames?

Doubtful. However, anything above 6th place is a victory....seriously.

[Ron Paul Fan]

odds are majorly against him for first place, Mitt has invested way too much into it. And so did the other candidates. If he is in the top 5 I'll be glad

Not likely he'll get 1st, but I won't rule it out completely. I'll also be happy if he's in the top 5 because he's done all of this in a week and on the internet. This would mean he beat one of the following:Tancredo, Brownback, Huckabee, Tommy Thompson, and one of them will drop. I'm not sure whether or not to believe those predicting a top 3 finish. They may just be setting him up for dissapointment or they might actually be right, but I guess we'll know for sure tomorrow.

[DeadheadForPaul]

You gotta keep in mind that Dr. Paul only recently started campaigning in Iowa.

Others are putting everything they got (money and time) into this straw poll. Tommy Thompson has been to every county...Romney has spent millions etc

[Slugg]

If he gets 5th or 6th, do you think he'll get invited to future debates? I don't see why not...we can get pretty loud when needed....

[Jennifer Reynolds]

Out of the 1000 Iowans I called 8 had heard his name before. So don't expect much. Whatever we get is a huge victory. These folks had never heard of him before last month. So any votes we get will show how much work we did in a month! I will count every single vote for us as a victory!

[FreedomLover]

Does he have the numbers to come out in first place at Ames?

If people from out of state could vote, we'd come in 1st place with 90%.

However, Mitt has had this event staked out for most of the year with millions of dollars spent on getting the win. So 1st place is most likely not in the cards.

I suspect Ron Paul (whos only been in iowa since last week) will come in a very very respectable 5th place with 1300 votes, or thereabouts. And that in and of itself is a huge upset when you think about it.

[SeanEdwards]

Is anyone else feeling kind of tense and excited about current events? :eek:

[tiznow]

My expectations are around 2000 votes that seems reasonable. As far as what percentage that equates to i dunno as I have no clue how many votes will be cast. The GOP from what i've seen in iowa is pretty decimated by bush dragging it through the gutter and the super hot conditions can only help us, some might stay home etc.

All I know is people on the ground in iowa are working like mad so the effort is being put in and he has been getting alot of positive press in the state this week (I tip my cap to Ron Paul as well he has been putting his all into iowa this week). I honestly have no clue how its going to turn out. Starting to get nervous decided to sacrifice getting involved in the pre festivities such as Ronstock etc to stay around in iowa city to aid in the carpooling process from this area.

[FreedomLover]

Out of the 1000 Iowans I called 8 had heard his name before. So don't expect much. Whatever we get is a huge victory. These folks had never heard of him before last month. So any votes we get will show how much work we did in a month! I will count every single vote for us as a victory!

Yeah, so am I!

This straw poll may be the end of some of the candidate's campaigns, but it's only the beggining of ours. :cool:

[Nash]

The optimist in me says 2nd place behind Romney.

The realist in me says 4th place behind Huckabee and Brownback.

The pessimist in me says 6th place behind Tancredo and Thompson.

The wildcards are F Thompson, Gulianni and McCain. It's hard to figure where they will place since they are popular mainstream candidates who apparently hate iowa.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

BUT... Ron Paul may also draw a lot of independents and democrats. ohh and let's not forget about the libertarians and constitutionalists!

[TyTodd]

Doubtful. However, anything above 6th place is a victory....seriously.

I agree. Pretty much all the "real world" polls, including the jelly bean count or whatever shenanigans are happening at the state fair (see other thread), suggest that Paul's support puts him pretty far back in Iowa. I think that anything above the polling percentages that Dr. Paul has been getting would prove that his online support is real or translating into votes. From my limited perspective, I think we have a small (but growing) group of rabid supporters. The question really is have the limited amounts of exposure Ron Paul has made in Iowa captured enough new support outside of the core base to elevate him above the 6-7 place range in the straw poll? Seriously, Paul has hardly been in the state at all, and just starting running advertisements this week. Romney has done everything short of distributing autographed bricks of gold to the populace. His hair alone will probably get three write in votes.

I will add that although Congressman Paul will be in the campaign until the first primaries regardless of Saturday's results, a strong showing here in Iowa would be massive... it would prove to the MSM and talking heads that the online support for Dr. Paul is real. If we don't poll well here, it will just be more of the same in terms of being marginalized, ignored, etc. by the pundits. We really need a surprise showing to validate the campaign as an actual contender!

[DeadheadForPaul]

The thing is that we will survive the iowa star poll no matter what happens because Dr. Paul has already sold us. Some of the lesser candidates are going to lose 99% of their supporters if they do poorly and will have to drop out.

We can absorb Tancredo's and Huckabee's supporters in particular. PLay nice to them :)

[JosephTheLibertarian]

Ron Paul received like 478,000 votes in 1988... he is VERY popular among libertarians, so wouldn't libertarian iowans come out for him? I'm not sure how many there are, but they're out there.

[Slugg]

If we don't poll well here, it will just be more of the same in terms of being marginalized, ignored, etc. by the pundits. We really need a surprise showing to validate the campaign as an actual contender!

Yeah, I think if he gets 4th we will be considered 'Front runner' by MSM. 5th or 6th won't help much, but won't hurt much either. Last place will put a nail in our growth....HOWEVER...I think we have a better chance of getting first than we have of getting last.

[Gee]

Keep in mind, there will be less votes than last election's. The GOP base has shrunk significantly, and two of the top-3 candidates are not participating.

The '99 results were:

George W. Bush 7418 31%
Steve Forbes 4921 21%
Elizabeth Dole 3410 14%
Gary Bauer 2114 9%
Patrick Buchanan 1719 7%
Lamar Alexander 1428 6%
Alan Keyes 1101 5%
Dan Quayle 916 4%
Orrin Hatch 558 2%

I think anything but a 2nd-place finish would hurt the campaign, since pundits would report that as meaning Paul isn't the best of the 2nd-tier (and we know he is).

[Johnnybags]

BUT... Ron Paul may also draw a lot of independents and democrats. ohh and let's not forget about the libertarians and constitutionalists!

If both those groups made an effort he could win it, but I think most of them are waiting for the return of Christ for the perfect candidate. So, its a respectable 4,5,6,7 place for us in a close vote for each of those places. Separated by 5 to 6 hundred at most. 25k votes at 22 percent or more needed for win is about 5k + votes. We do not have 5k votes. Probably 1/3 of that. However we will beat the 2/3 percent polls.

[Lord Xar]

Do you people think that a 6th place finish is good? I mean, given what WE know its good, but do you think the MSM is gonna say "Ron Paul placed 6th because only spent a week there...?" NO! They will say "Ron Paul couldn't muster any votes so it appears his online presence does not translate into votes..." blah blah blah..

See, we all know what 6th means etc.. but we do NOT HAVE any availability to massive media outlets who are looking for ANY reason to disparage Ron Paul.. I mean, any reason.. from reseting vote counters, to trying to hijack him on t.v. to putting out comletely FALSE newspaper headlines IN DES MOINES a few days before the vote.. I mean... nobody is gonna be fair and say "he only spent 40k in Iowa, whereas everyone else spent updwards of 800K!!" NO ---

If the diebold machines can be neautralized, then I say Ron Places 3rd

[Slugg]

Do you people think that a 6th place finish is good? I mean, given what WE know its good, but do you think the MSM is gonna say "Ron Paul placed 6th because only spent a week there...?" NO! They will say "Ron Paul couldn't muster any votes so it appears his online presence does not translate into votes..." blah blah blah..

See, we all know what 6th means etc.. but we do NOT HAVE any availability to massive media outlets who are looking for ANY reason to disparage Ron Paul.. I mean, any reason.. from reseting vote counters, to trying to hijack him on t.v. to putting out comletely FALSE newspaper headlines IN DES MOINES a few days before the vote.. I mean... nobody is gonna be fair and say "he only spent 40k in Iowa, whereas everyone else spent updwards of 800K!!" NO ---

If the diebold machines can be neautralized, then I say Ron Places 3rd

Right, but that's not the only outcome of the poll. It gives us (and the campaign) an idea of what kind of support we really have. I think this is more important for the campaign than it is for the press. We can fight the press another round if we need to, but what we need to know is if our efforts are working. Who cares what MSM says, we haven't so far....we can fight 'em again. This will tell the campaign if they have the traction we like to think they have....

So, the media response is second here. We're gunna fight the media regardless...even if he finishes first...we'll have to fight them to give him his full credit. The main thing about this is it will tell us, the campaign, and Ron Paul that the efforts are (or are not) working...so, by those measures, 6th is fine.

Just my opinion though....

[Hook]

Most of the Libertarians I know are perfectly happy with Dr. Paul and are voting for him. I think you can expect a lot of support from the LP and CP folks. How much that is in Iowa in terms of absolute numbers is anyone's guess though.
My prediction is 7.35% for Dr. Paul :)

[stevedasbach]

The MSM didn't get us to where we are today and we aren't dependent on them to advance further. If Ron does better than expected, and gets some extra MSM attention, that's a bonus.

[Ninja Homer]

There are about 610,000 active Republican voters in Iowa. (http://iowavoters.org/2006/01/15/few-candidates-for-top-election-job/)
The University of Iowa poll (http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/august/080807UItopline.pdf) says that among Republicans, 2.4% would vote for Ron Paul for President. Note that this poll was before this week's campaign push.

That gives us 14,640 Ron Paul supporters from the Republican base. Surely there are also a lot more Ron Paul supporters from third-party, Democrat, and even people that don't normally vote.

So what percentage of Ron Paul supporters do you think will show up and vote in the straw poll?

I'm thinking 1 in 3 Ron Paul supporters coming out to vote in the straw poll isn't out of the question, but I'm an optomist. That would be at least 5000 votes.

[Hook]

At least 7.35% is what the Diebold machines tell me :)

[freelance]

The optimist in me says 2nd place behind Romney.

The realist in me says 4th place behind Huckabee and Brownback.

The pessimist in me says 6th place behind Tancredo and Thompson.

If he comes in behind Brownback and Thompson, I'll slit my wrists! ;-)



The wildcards are F Thompson, Gulianni and McCain. It's hard to figure where they will place since they are popular mainstream candidates who apparently hate iowa.

I must have slept through the non-candidate Fred allowed into the straw poll. Is this for real?

[Lord Xar]

Right, but that's not the only outcome of the poll. It gives us (and the campaign) an idea of what kind of support we really have. I think this is more important for the campaign than it is for the press. We can fight the press another round if we need to, but what we need to know is if our efforts are working. Who cares what MSM says, we haven't so far....we can fight 'em again. This will tell the campaign if they have the traction we like to think they have....

So, the media response is second here. We're gunna fight the media regardless...even if he finishes first...we'll have to fight them to give him his full credit. The main thing about this is it will tell us, the campaign, and Ron Paul that the efforts are (or are not) working...so, by those measures, 6th is fine.

Just my opinion though....

No doubt I agree with what you are saying... but it just makes our jobs that much harder... you know.. its just more propaganda MORE nonsense we have to overcome when talking to people and such... the other day I am tlaking to a friend and I mention that I am working on that ames ad.. he says "ron paul is cool.. i dig him, too bad he aint' gonna win..."

So all I am saying is that I don't want a personal victory... you know? I don't want to say 6th is cool.. NO, I want others to be "revolutionized"..... I want to say, "yeah! I told you... he is awesome.. see!!" PLUS, the higher he places THE MORE ATTENTION HE WILL GET... just makes our job wayyyyyyyyyyyy easier.

[Slugg]

No doubt I agree with what you are saying... but it just makes our jobs that much harder... you know.. its just more propaganda MORE nonsense we have to overcome when talking to people and such... the other day I am tlaking to a friend and I mention that I am working on that ames ad.. he says "ron paul is cool.. i dig him, too bad he aint' gonna win..."

So all I am saying is that I don't want a personal victory... you know? I don't want to say 6th is cool.. NO, I want others to be "revolutionized"..... I want to say, "yeah! I told you... he is awesome.. see!!" PLUS, the higher he places THE MORE ATTENTION HE WILL GET... just makes our job wayyyyyyyyyyyy easier.

You are absolutely right about 6th being a bit lame...and i know I would have to defend him from my coworkers who say the same as your friend.....it's the nature of the beast. It seems to me that MSM is swinging towards Ron Paul more and more lately. Hopefully we'll do well and this conversation becomes a moot point.

But, let's say he gets 6% and places 6th. That tells me our efforts are working. That's a good thing.

BUT, he may get 15% and come in a strong second.....because who knows how many dems and indi's are going to come out....

[JosephTheLibertarian]

We probably should have bombarded the libertarian party of iowa & the national hq to support RP though :D

[Ninja Homer]

We probably should have bombarded the libertarian party of iowa & the national hq to support RP though :D

They're smart, I'm sure they'll figure it out. ;)

[rg123]

I think no matter where he places you have to figure in all the negative hit jobs from the msm into the mix. Its few and far between he gets airtime and hes attacked everywhere on the tv. To the avg. tv sheep they only here Rudy, Mitt, Fred, I mean all day everyday on cable its the same thing everyday. I mean like Fred sits on his ass all day and msnbc every super tues talks about him all day long, Fox, Cnn too. Its why they are moving all the primaries up because they are scared to death the Ron Paul Revolution could turn into a Revolution

[TyTodd]

No doubt I agree with what you are saying... but it just makes our jobs that much harder... you know.. its just more propaganda MORE nonsense we have to overcome when talking to people and such... the other day I am tlaking to a friend and I mention that I am working on that ames ad.. he says "ron paul is cool.. i dig him, too bad he aint' gonna win..."

So all I am saying is that I don't want a personal victory... you know? I don't want to say 6th is cool.. NO, I want others to be "revolutionized"..... I want to say, "yeah! I told you... he is awesome.. see!!" PLUS, the higher he places THE MORE ATTENTION HE WILL GET... just makes our job wayyyyyyyyyyyy easier.

Yeah, I think this is the crux of the problem. Regardless of how we feel about the media machine, their focus on certain candidates and whittling down of the front runners is really a major self-fulfilling prophecy. And, a lot of that buzz starts with the straw poll tomorrow. As much as we me might be excited by a finish in the 4-5 range, I think the press will discount Ron Paul if he doesn't surprise, suggesting that his online support is in fact illusion.

I still hold out hope that the power of the MSM will be offset by the internet and access to information without gatekeepers. But, even with the glory of youtube and other viral resources, the traditional media still has WAY to much influence over name recognition and branding for the candidates.

[Lord Xar]

We probably should have bombarded the libertarian party of iowa & the national hq to support RP though :D

well, if there is a libertarian party there, I am pretty sure they know about ron paul :)

[Bluedevil]

he will come in 2nd or 3rd.

[DeadheadForPaul]

well, if there is a libertarian party there, I am pretty sure they know about ron paul :)

Agreed. I'm sure a lot of the Iowan LPers and CPers make up some of the volunteers out in full force right now in Ames.

The thing is that almost all people who support Ron Paul are hardcore supporters, so we can expect their vote

[cujothekitten]

My guess is third but honestly, I have no idea. Tonight we are going to find out just how strong we are. I expect better showings in more populated areas but we'll just have to wait and see what happens.