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No1ButPaul08
02-10-2008, 06:16 PM
With the chances of a brokered convention nearly zero, we cannot give up on the search for delegates, in both states that have already voted, and states that are upcoming.

Delegates do a lot more than nominate a candidate for President, they also set the rules for the next convention, and adopt a party platform. From the GOP's convention website

Why do we have conventions?

National conventions combine three important functions: nomination of candidates for office of President and Vice President; formulation and adoption of a statement of party principles - the platform; and adoption of rule and procedures governing party activities, particularly the nomination process for presidential candidates in the next election cycle.

So if there is no brokered convention, we still need as many delegates as possible. Delegates can be bound to a presidential candidate, but they can vote to approve or disapprove the new rules and platform. And if the brokered convention were to happen, we would be in good position with Paul delegates.

I've already posted
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=116576

However, that only shows upcoming states where we can win Presidential delegates. We need to concentrate on ALL delegates that are winnable, Presidential or not. We can STILL have an impact at the convention, which can lead to greater impact at future conventions. This is not about one Presidential election. We can change the GOP from the inside.

Finally, a couple of us are working on, what will hopefully be, a comprehensive delegate site for now, and the future.

AlexMerced
02-10-2008, 06:16 PM
yep if you can stil become a delegate in your state, you better be doing it

greendiseaser
02-10-2008, 06:16 PM
I think that letter is off the mark.
It looks like the chances of a brokered convention are still pretty good.

Right?

AlexMerced
02-10-2008, 06:18 PM
I think that letter is off the mark.
It looks like the chances of a brokered convention are still pretty good.

Right?

I think they are much better, Huckabee is gonna tear up without Romney splitting the anti-mccain vote. And we're gonna continue to tear up the previous and future caucus state conventions without romney around.

Mccain is scrrrrreewed

No1ButPaul08
02-10-2008, 07:14 PM
I think they are much better, Huckabee is gonna tear up without Romney splitting the anti-mccain vote. And we're gonna continue to tear up the previous and future caucus state conventions without romney around.

Mccain is scrrrrreewed

I wish I could be that optimistic, and there is still a chance, I was just using the words from the email. But looking at the numbers there still is a chance. However, he's leading big in the polls in VA and MD. You are correct on the caucus states.

We need to secure as many delegates as possible, in every state, even if they would be bound forever. This goes for state delegates too. We can change the state party rules to be favorable for us, like making more states delegate process like louisiana or washington, where there are many dates and beauty contests, and those with the knowledge and drive are at the convention unbound and not the candidate's slate. Change the party from the inside

freelance
02-10-2008, 07:32 PM
I think that the chances of a brokered convention are a lot better than I originally thought. We have months for discontent to set in. We have months to expose John McCain, and we have months to convert other delegates. In the meantime, we can continue to accrue delegates on the sly. We do not know what might happen between now and the convention.

AlexMerced
02-10-2008, 07:34 PM
I wish I could be that optimistic, and there is still a chance, I was just using the words from the email. But looking at the numbers there still is a chance. However, he's leading big in the polls in VA and MD. You are correct on the caucus states.

We need to secure as many delegates as possible, in every state, even if they would be bound forever. This goes for state delegates too. We can change the state party rules to be favorable for us, like making more states delegate process like louisiana or washington, where there are many dates and beauty contests, and those with the knowledge and drive are at the convention unbound and not the candidate's slate. Change the party from the inside

he may be leading the poll but over half of the delgates in the primary system are unbound, so his numbers are just estimates

No1ButPaul08
02-10-2008, 07:55 PM
he may be leading the poll but over half of the delgates in the primary system are unbound, so his numbers are just estimates

Yeah, but most of his delegates are bound, and the ones that aren't are party leaders who will go with their state. By my count, he has 633 bound delegates, 76 from party leaders in states he won, and only 16 from caucus states. For 728 delegates, of which he might lose 20, max. So his delegate count while an estimate, is pretty solid. He has at least 700 delegates, he only needs 480 of 1202 available delegates. If you give him the 100 from VA and MD where he leads by 30 points in both states, he would only need 380/1202.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p2Ua4t0-Z5pFHScTNGq7bUg&gid=0

AlexMerced
02-10-2008, 08:05 PM
well, let's just hope for the best then

HenryKnoxFineBooks
02-10-2008, 08:09 PM
I think that letter is off the mark.
It looks like the chances of a brokered convention are still pretty good.

Right?

Tuesday Potomac primaries will be very important. IF the Huckster wins, then i say the chances of a brokered convention go up to an almost 50% chance. If McCain wins Maryland and Virginia....not good at all.

AlexMerced
02-10-2008, 08:14 PM
Tuesday Potomac primaries will be very important. IF the Huckster wins, then i say the chances of a brokered convention go up to an almost 50% chance. If McCain wins Maryland and Virginia....not good at all.

nailed it on the head, though even then we want to win as many delegates as possible to change the republican platform and officers

No1ButPaul08
02-10-2008, 08:27 PM
well, let's just hope for the best then

No, but I like to be realistic instead of creating numbers that sound good. By my count, 582 of the 2380 delegates are unbound. Not quite the half you speak of. Take in the party leaders that will go with their state 99% of the time, and that number lowers.

And if as you said, "Mccain is scrrrrreewed," I welcome you to go to intrade.com, and bet against McCain, where currently he sits at 93.5% to win the nomination. You can donate the winnings to the cause of freedom

And how could a post pointing out how delegates are still important be, "hoping for the best."

AlexMerced
02-10-2008, 08:29 PM
No, but I like to be realistic instead of creating numbers that sound good. By my count, 582 of the 2380 delegates are unbound. Not quite the half you speak of. Take in the party leaders that will go with their state 99% of the time, and that number lowers.

And if as you said, "Mccain is scrrrrreewed," I welcome you to go to intrade.com, and bet against McCain, where currently he sits at 93.5% to win the nomination. You can donate the winnings to the cause of freedom

And how could a post pointing out how delegates are still important be, "hoping for the best."

fair enough

No1ButPaul08
02-10-2008, 08:35 PM
nailed it on the head, though even then we want to win as many delegates as possible to change the republican platform and officers

This really was the point of my post, not to point out the chances of the brokered convention.

We can change this party from the inside, we just have to show up for EVERYTHING and ANYTHING where delegates are won; precinct, county, state, national and everything else in between

No1ButPaul08
02-10-2008, 08:59 PM
bump

No1ButPaul08
02-10-2008, 10:19 PM
bump

ShowMeLiberty
02-10-2008, 11:09 PM
bump

JakeW
02-10-2008, 11:21 PM
bump