Delegate Projection

[nate895]

Huckabee:576
Romney: 239
McCain: 1147 DANGER
Paul: 137
Unpledged: 251
Unknown: 15


First Ballot.

View Spreadsheet here. (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=piL3Xdbpib97P4e7ndQBxXA)

I had Paul winning in the territories outside of Puerto Rico, which I put in McCain's tally. He also won Washington Caucus, Hawaii, as well as his home district in TX. enough to surpass the 5 states to be placed as candidate. Although, you can still vote for him if he is not a candidate. He also got the delegates due to the fact that the primary in New Mexico is non-binding, and the state convention actually decides the rules

Edit Note: Still 43 off, but I have no clue where it's coming from, I'll report back soon.

Delegate Projection Error found: I couldn't add in the delegates won by those who have dropped (save Romney), and that could well add up to apx. 43, but I'm unsure.

[kirkblitz]

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

[Ron Paul Fan]

LOL! McCain is up by 28 and 32% in Virginia! He'll sweep all 3 contests on Tuesday and pick up 90-100 delegates on Tuesday easily. Then you talk about Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Mexico, etc. etc. and it's just really hard to imagine Huckabee beating McCain in any of these states.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

1191 needed to win:

848 + 285 = 1133
:-)

[nate895]

LOL! McCain is up by 28 and 32% in Virginia! He'll sweep all 3 contests on Tuesday and pick up 90-100 delegates on Tuesday easily. Then you talk about Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Mexico, etc. etc. and it's just really hard to imagine Huckabee beating McCain in any of these states.

I put all the ones you talked about in McCain's column except Ohio and VA, which it is possible for him to win there, it is a month away after all, and he may get a boost from his victories yesterday. Remember, he wasn't going anywhere before he won Iowa.

[AlexMerced]

lol, we just need these numbers to hold for the first ballot, our numbers will be bigger on the second ballot cause of many of people now become unbound

[nate895]

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

We infiltrate and are forced to vote for one of the others first ballot, but then vote Paul when released.

[JordanQ72]

Besides the fact that you seem to have less votes than delegates, very few of the remaining states are winner take all. It'll be Huckabee and McCain both getting delegates, and as long as he can hold to above 35%, he's in.

[familydog]

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

Good question.

Anyone?

[NEPA_Revolution]

I dont think Paul wants the neo-cons help.

[nate895]

Besides the fact that you seem to have less votes than delegates, very few of the remaining states are winner take all. It'll be Huckabee and McCain both getting delegates, and as long as he can hold to above 35%, he's in.

It's 47% (now 48-50% from his losses yesterday). I didn't include RNC, so it should be ~150 short of the actual total vote count.

[Ron Paul Fan]

I put all the ones you talked about in McCain's column except Ohio and VA, which it is possible for him to win there, it is a month away after all, and he may get a boost from his victories yesterday. Remember, he wasn't going anywhere before he won Iowa.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_republican_primary-506.html

Is it? Or are you just ignoring scientific polls? After Tuesday's contests there are 786 delegates available and McCain will need about 300 of them to clinch. He doesn't even have to win any of those as long as he keeps getting 40% of the vote. All you're doing is doing some funky, unrealistic math to get people's hopes up.

[AlexMerced]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_republican_primary-506.html

Is it? Or are you just ignoring scientific polls? After Tuesday's contests there are 786 delegates available and McCain will need about 300 of them to clinch. He doesn't even have to win any of those as long as he keeps getting 40% of the vote. All you're doing is doing some funky, unrealistic math to get people's hopes up.

the idea that he has to get 40% of those is based on if the MSM's estimation is true, knowing how this works, I'd knock off at least 100 off the number, so mccain is probably truly around 617 delegates...

remember,t here are more unbound delegates in the primary system than bound delegates.

[JordanQ72]

It's 47% (now 48-50% from his losses yesterday). I didn't include RNC, so it should be ~150 short of the actual total vote count.

If you're getting that number, then your assumptions are running on the insane basis that every single delegate that has an unbound status is going to vote against McCain.

[No1ButPaul08]

Huckabee: 752
Romney: 285
McCain: 848
Paul: 108

First Ballot.

McCain will probably have a little more due to the congressional district by in Ohio and Texas but definently not enough to secure the nomination if Huckabee can manage to pull off a victory in Virginia on Tuesday. I had Paul winning in the territories outside of Puerto Rico, which I put in McCain's tally. He also won Washington Caucus, Hawaii, DC, as well as his home district in TX. enough to surpass the 5 states to be placed as candidate. Although, you can still vote for him if he is not a candidate.

If you're going to do this please put a source or explain your fuzzy math

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p2Ua4t0-Z5pFHScTNGq7bUg&gid=0

Here's my delegate count. I personally think it's the most accurate one on the internet. You are also 387 delegates short. The unpledged party leaders will vote with their state, with very little exceptions. McCain might have 3 or 6 more delegates in GA.

Edit: i originally put about 600 delegates. Speaking of fuzzy math

[hvac ak47]

If you're getting that number, then your assumptions are running on the insane basis that every single delegate that has an unbound status is going to vote against McCain.

What do you suggest we do? Quit or keep fighting?

[JordanQ72]

What do you suggest we do? Quit or keep fighting?

I would listen to what Ron Paul himself has to say on this one.

[hvac ak47]

I would listen to what Ron Paul himself has to say on this one.

Great!!! Fight on then, let the chips fall where they may!!

[JordanQ72]

Great!!! Fight on then, let the chips fall where they may!!

If that's how you read his message, that's fine for you. Not all of us did. Specifically, these theories behind a win in a brokered convention.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

We can't let McCain + Romney >= 1191

[hvac ak47]

We can't let McCain + Romney >= 1191

Romney cant force his delegate to vote fro McCain.

[greendiseaser]

Why is this voted down to 1 star? out of curiosity?

[GoldStan]

Romney cant force his delegate to vote fro McCain.

Actually that is *exactly* what he can do and it is why he suspended his campaign rather than just dropping out. Giuliani did the same to retain his delegates. Both have all but guaranteed their delegates to McCain.

[ronpaulyourmom]

If you're going to do this please put a source or explain your fuzzy math

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p2Ua4t0-Z5pFHScTNGq7bUg&gid=0

Here's my delegate count. I personally think it's the most accurate one on the internet. You are also 387 delegates short. The unpledged party leaders will vote with their state, with very little exceptions. McCain might have 3 or 6 more delegates in GA.

Edit: i originally put about 600 delegates. Speaking of fuzzy math

nicely done sir.

[AlexMerced]

Romney cant force his delegate to vote fro McCain.

Romney is saving those delegates and will play the game appropriateley come the convention in his favor. Until then though, his doing this is in our favor

[hvac ak47]

He can not give them to McCain.

If he suspended then his delegates are bound to him for the 1st round( In states that apply). As they become unbound they vote how they want. If they are Ron Paul supporters how is he going to force them to vote McCain? He cannot FORCE them , he can ask them.

[slamhead]

so how will we win if this turns out to be the actual projection? what would force mccain or huck to back us

They don't have to back us. Without a majority it is brokered and the delegates are released to vote their conscience.

[theczar1776]

oh boy

[nate895]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_republican_primary-506.html

Is it? Or are you just ignoring scientific polls? After Tuesday's contests there are 786 delegates available and McCain will need about 300 of them to clinch. He doesn't even have to win any of those as long as he keeps getting 40% of the vote. All you're doing is doing some funky, unrealistic math to get people's hopes up.

There hasn't been any data since Huckabee's surprises, and many on the ground think it's possible for Huckster to win.

And he's 467 short for the record.

[AlexMerced]

the bottom line is there is a clear possibility even if it may be slim and depending on a lot "ifs" but my life experience has shown me, slight odds only mean you should work harder

[nate895]

bump for better math

[GoDrNo]

Romney does not have all his delegates to "give" to anyone, the rules for what happens to delegates vary from state to state. Here in MI the MIGOP.org website posted that Romney's delgates were officially unbound and uncommitted. This led to some intersting happenings at the county conventions over the weekend.

http://www.migop.org/default.asp

To: Interested Parties
From: Eric E. Doster, General Counsel
CC: Saulius "Saul" Anuzis, Chairman
Date: February 7, 2008
Re: Clarification of Michigan's Republican National Convention delegate allocation

As you are most likely aware, Governor Mitt Romney today suspended his campaign for the Republican nomination for president of the United States. Governor Romney was allocated 45 of Michigan's 60 delegates to the Republican National Convention as a result of winning 13 of Michigan's 15 congressional districts and receiving 40% of the total statewide vote in Michigan's January 15, 2008 Presidential Primary Election.

In accordance with Rule 19E(2) of the Republican Party of Michigan Rules for Selection of Delegates and Alternates to the 2008 Republican County, State and National Conventions, the 45 delegates that were previously allocated to Governor Romney will now be deemed "uncommitted" delegates and are therefore not bound to support any particular candidate at the 2008 Republican National Convention. Pursuant to the Rules, the Credentials Committee of the Michigan Republican Party will today submit notification to Governor Romney's campaign informing them of this action. Governor Romney has the right to appeal the Credentials Committee's determination within five days, but it is our understanding from the Romney campaign that he has no intention to do so.

Individuals residing in any congressional district previously committed to Governor Romney who wish to seek election as a congressional district delegate or alternate to the Republican National Convention, or individuals seeking election as an at-large delegate or alternate for one of the six positions to which Governor Romney was previously allocated should file a presidential preference form (as required by Rule 7) indicating they seek election as an uncommitted delegate or alternate.

No actions taken today have any impact at all on the delegates previously allocated to Senator McCain or Governor Huckabee. The updated Michigan delegate allocation is as follows:
Uncommitted 45
McCain 10
Huckabee 2
RNC Members 3*

[nate895]

Bump

[TruthAtLast]

good information on Michigan. Now, how about the other states? Also, does HQ or anyone have an idea of how many "hidden" delegates we have? Meaning, delegates that are bound to a candidate but are Ron Paul supporters and could vote for RP in the second round? You'd you think that HQ would have a list of every delegate or potential delegate from every state and how many are RP supporters.

[nate895]

good information on Michigan. Now, how about the other states? Also, does HQ or anyone have an idea of how many "hidden" delegates we have? Meaning, delegates that are bound to a candidate but are Ron Paul supporters and could vote for RP in the second round? You'd you think that HQ would have a list of every delegate or potential delegate from every state and how many are RP supporters.

It probably does, but most are still up in the air and we don't want McCain and Huckabee to get to suspicious and start huge GOTV drives in states to select delegates.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

the MA GOP chairman informed me via email that our April Caucus will have 22 Romney and 18 McCain delegates. The Romney delegates apparently aren't unbound here.

[Bradley in DC]

I had Paul winning in the territories outside of Puerto Rico, which I put in McCain's tally. He also won Washington Caucus, Hawaii, DC, as well as his home district in TX. enough to surpass the 5 states to be placed as candidate.

Dr. Paul is going to get crushed in DC on Tuesday which will go for McCain. While the grassroots organized early with lots of energy and a good plan to win based on a strategy several worked on together, HQ told everyone not to cooperate. It's too late now, we needed to register people Republican before the deadline (we have a closed primary here).

Even though we had been working on reregistering Libertarians, Arabs and others to vote for Dr. Paul, none of that happened. The hapless guy they have "running" the DC campaign was calling the DC volunteers the night before the deadline to ask them to call Libertarians to switch parties. Everyone laughed at him. Amal and others with the Arab associations were never contacted.

It's sad. We could have won if HQ had just left us be. I got an email today from a friend who works at the ACLU fighting National ID asking if he could get a yard sign, etc., but he didn't know he needed to be registered Republican already.

[nate895]

Dr. Paul is going to get crushed in DC on Tuesday which will go for McCain. While the grassroots organized early with lots of energy and a good plan to win based on a strategy several worked on together, HQ told everyone not to cooperate. It's too late now, we needed to register people Republican before the deadline (we have a closed primary here).

Even though we had been working on reregistering Libertarians, Arabs and others to vote for Dr. Paul, none of that happened. The hapless guy they have "running" the DC campaign was calling the DC volunteers the night before the deadline to ask them to call Libertarians to switch parties. Everyone laughed at him. Amal and others with the Arab associations were never contacted.

It's sad. We could have won if HQ had just left us be. I got an email today from a friend who works at the ACLU fighting National ID asking if he could get a yard sign, etc., but he didn't know he needed to be registered Republican already.

Well, he's still short.

[nate895]

Bump, error found.

[nate895]

bump

[nate895]

one last bump for the night.

[JakeW]

bump

[nate895]

Bump from Spreadsheet.

[limequat]

Huckabee: 809
Romney: 256
McCain: 959
Paul: 98
Unpledged: 200
Unknown: 15


First Ballot.

View Spreadsheet here. (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=piL3Xdbpib97P4e7ndQBxXA)

McCain will probably have a little more due to the congressional district by in Ohio and Texas but definently not enough to secure the nomination if Huckabee can manage to pull off a victory in Virginia on Tuesday. I had Paul winning in the territories outside of Puerto Rico, which I put in McCain's tally. He also won Washington Caucus, Hawaii, DC, as well as his home district in TX. enough to surpass the 5 states to be placed as candidate. Although, you can still vote for him if he is not a candidate.

Edit Note: Still 43 off, but I have no clue where it's coming from, I'll report back soon.

Delegate Projection Error found: I couldn't add in the delegates won by those who have dropped (save Romney), and that could well add up to apx. 43, but I'm unsure.


I'm getting similar numbers, but I don't think you are counting all the unpledged delegates. There's a lot. As of right now, 412 are unpledged or uncommitted.

Romney: 116
Huckabee: 632
McCain: 967
Paul: 27
Unpledged: 575

[nate895]

I'm getting similar numbers, but I don't think you are counting all the unpledged delegates. There's a lot. As of right now, 412 are unpledged or uncommitted.

Romney: 116
Huckabee: 632
McCain: 967
Paul: 27
Unpledged: 575

I included many of the unpledged delegates in the overall counts for each candidate.

[nate895]

bump

[nate895]

bump

[nate895]

bump

[nate895]

bump

[nate895]

bump

[JordanQ72]

Your projections are bad. Huck winning Virginia? Oh man...

[nate895]

Your projections are bad. Huck winning Virginia? Oh man...

He got a huge boost, he has divided the lead in half, and may pull out given another day.

[Ron Paul Fan]

Your projections are bad. Huck winning Virginia? Oh man...

Yeah, he's only down by 11% according to the latest poll. LOL! I'm sure he'll close an 11% lead by tomorrow! Don't matter what Huckabee gets if he doesn't beat McCain. Virginia is winner take all.

[Avalon]

Your projections are bad. Huck winning Virginia? Oh man... McCain supporters have little reason to come out, their candidate has "won." Huckabee supporters aren't swayed by the slim chance their candidate has for the nomination.

[JordanQ72]

He got a huge boost, he has divided the lead in half, and may pull out given another day.

Well, if you're going to defend your nonsense with la-la reasoning like that, there's no debate to be had here. Hopefully you're at least intellectually honest enough to correct that tomorrow. That you think Huck will outright win all of Texas and Ohio too, oh boy...

Yes, if Huck wins every single state outright from here on out, there won't be a brokered convention.

[nate895]

Yeah, he's only down by 11% according to the latest poll. LOL! I'm sure he'll close an 11% lead by tomorrow! Don't matter what Huckabee gets if he doesn't beat McCain. Virginia is winner take all.

One day he narrows the lead 14 points, one day, and you don't think he can accomplish that again.

Plus I agree that McCain's supporters don't have the motivation to get out like Huckabee's supporters do for two reasons:

1. McCain's "support" is only because he is the front runner for the most part

2. McCain has already won, didn't you hear?

[nate895]

Well, if you're going to defend your nonsense with la-la reasoning like that, there's no debate to be had here. Hopefully you're at least intellectually honest enough to correct that tomorrow. That you think Huck will outright win all of Texas and Ohio too, oh boy...

Yes, if Huck wins every single state outright from here on out, there won't be a brokered convention.

I'll bet you 50 bucks that Huckabee wins Virginia tomorrow.

[Ron Paul Fan]

There's a chance Huckabee could win, I'll give you that. It's just unlikely. Ron Paul supporters rooting for Mike Huckabee to win. Who woulda thunk it?

[JordanQ72]

I'll bet you 50 bucks that Huckabee wins Virginia tomorrow.

Sure. Like you're going to pay anyway...
Just promise me you'll donate the sum to the campaign.


One day he narrows the lead 14 points, one day, and you don't think he can accomplish that again.

You base this on what exactly? 1 poll? That's ironic to say the least. I understand where the bump came from, it isn't going to translate into a win.

[nate895]

Sure. Like you're going to pay anyway...
Just promise me you'll donate the sum to the campaign.



You base this on what exactly? 1 poll? That's ironic to say the least. I understand where the bump came from, it isn't going to translate into a win.

I'd give $25 to the campaign and $25 to your paypal account if I could find a way to, but I'm 15 so I only have cash.

If I win the bet, contribute the sum to RP or one our Congressional Candidate's campaigns.

Maybe you could PM me your address, if you're comfortable?

[Ron Paul Fan]

I'm 15



Shocking...

[LibertyIn08]

Shocking...

Suddenly age is the only valid quantifier for an opinion?

Shocking indeed.

:rolleyes:

[hvac ak47]

Very Smart kid!

[LibertyIn08]

Very Smart kid!

I think you'd be rather surprised at the quantity of us 'kids' on the board.

[kyleAF]

We infiltrate and are forced to vote for one of the others first ballot, but then vote Paul when released.

You don't *have* to vote according to state rules at the national convention. You just get into trouble if you don't.

[nate895]

You don't *have* to vote according to state rules at the national convention. You just get into trouble if you don't.

Are you sure you want to face prison time? It's fine if you do.

[Avalon]

You don't *have* to vote according to state rules at the national convention. You just get into trouble if you don't. In some cases "you" don't vote at all. In others, you will be replaced by an alternate (whom could also be a RP delegate :)) before you can place your vote. And trouble can be mean jail. In any case, let's not count on getting many of the legally bound delegates.

[N13]

Ahh yes, the road to glory is still alive.

[nate895]

bump for hope.

[nate895]

I have looked over the delegate rules for the remaining states, and adjusted according to Virginia's results. The media is lying, get this information out. It is virtually impossible for McCain to get the delegates either. The only two that may not pan out on this projection are Ohio and Texas, and even with McCain winning a much larger share, he still doesn't win.

Note on PA: Primary is total BS that doesn't mean anything.

[Banana]

Erm, what?

Math, please. Sources, too.

[nate895]

Erm, what?

Math, please. Sources, too.

The Green Papers are my sources, and my math is on the OP with a Spreadsheet, click on the link in the OP.

Source Link:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-DSVE.phtml

[Dylbro]

I posted this in another thread but i'll post here as well.

Not 1 candidate has the number of delegates the media reports...

The delegates in most states have not been decided at the state level.

Has the media gone to each of these elected delegates and asked them who they are going to vote for? No, the media is guessing that the delegates represent the same percentage of the populace that votes in the primaries and then assigns delegates. This is not true, most people do not want to become delegates... only the "real" grassroots become delegates.

Until the convention happens all candidates have ZERO delegates. You can hope that each of the delegates that have been "morally bound" to a candidate will vote for him but you cannot force them. You can speculate, you can guess but until its over it aint over. This is why it is important to become a delegate and only vote for Ron Paul delegates.

[nate895]

Update, I forgot to adjust Kentucky last update.

[JordanQ72]

Why do you have the PA delegates under Unc, but the CO delegates under Romney?


Edit Note: Still 43 off, but I have no clue where it's coming from, I'll report back soon.

You're missing like 15 from California.

[nate895]

Why do you have the PA delegates under Unc, but the CO delegates under Romney?

I put the Pennsylvania delegates under uncommitted because the primary doesn't mean jack, and I assumed that the current delegate count is correct, even though it's not.

[Soccrmastr]

thanks for this analysis

[nate895]

Why do you have the PA delegates under Unc, but the CO delegates under Romney?



You're missing like 15 from California.

I put all the rest under all uncommitted in the totals on the OP, I don't know where those went, so I'm going to assume they're uncommitted.

[IDefendThePlatform]

I posted this in another thread but i'll post here as well.

Not 1 candidate has the number of delegates the media reports...

The delegates in most states have not been decided at the state level.

Has the media gone to each of these elected delegates and asked them who they are going to vote for? No, the media is guessing that the delegates represent the same percentage of the populace that votes in the primaries and then assigns delegates. This is not true, most people do not want to become delegates... only the "real" grassroots become delegates.

Until the convention happens all candidates have ZERO delegates. You can hope that each of the delegates that have been "morally bound" to a candidate will vote for him but you cannot force them. You can speculate, you can guess but until its over it aint over. This is why it is important to become a delegate and only vote for Ron Paul delegates.


This is a great point. If we can get RP people elected as delegates, even in states where they are bound by rule to vote for the primary winner they could just abstain from voting. It would be against the rules and they might get punished for it, but if it prevents McCain from getting 1191 then I say its worth it.

[JordanQ72]

I put the Pennsylvania delegates under uncommitted because the primary doesn't mean jack, and I assumed that the current delegate count is correct, even though it's not.

But that doesn't explain CO. Even though Romney won, the delegates are unbound.

Anyway, about California and delegate estimates. Places like CNN only put out their most conservative and guaranteed delegate counts. McCain in all likelyhood got those 15 from California, and Huckabee probably got the 21 you're missing from Georgia.

Also, you seem to assign an unusually high number to Paul in some states, including places where they're unbound.

[JordanQ72]

Has the media gone to each of these elected delegates and asked them who they are going to vote for? No

Sigh, same old tired incorrect bullshit...

While some states haven't chosen who is going to the convention to represent them, the decision on how they vote is not up to those delegates.

[nate895]

But that doesn't explain CO. Even though Romney won, the delegates are unbound.

Anyway, about California and delegate estimates. Places like CNN only put out their most conservative and guaranteed delegate counts. McCain in all likelyhood got those 15 from California, and Huckabee probably got the 21 you're missing from Georgia.

Also, you seem to assign an unusually high number to Paul in some states, including places where they're unbound.

The 21 missing from Georgia I believe were going to Romney, but I'm not sure, it still balances if you add those to Huckabee and the others to McCain.

We just have to hope that 55% of the totally unpledged delegates (never stated preference anywhere) go for anyone but McCain.

[nate895]

Sigh, same old tired incorrect bullshit...

While some states haven't chosen who is going to the convention to represent them, the decision on how they vote is not up to those delegates.

In many it is, it is the same as in the Electoral College pretty much, many states do not bind their electors.

[JordanQ72]

In many it is, it is the same as in the Electoral College pretty much, many states do not bind their electors.

75+% of the delegates are bound on the first ballot. Just by fact, unquestionably.

Of the remaining 25% or so, the 150 RNC delegates will vote by tradition however their state went. After that you have the morally bound. What's left over is the group that truly isn't bound. Even out of those, you have issues of in some cases the candidates presenting a delegate slate that is voted on, with the delegates personally chosen by the candidates, yet they're considered unbound by the state in documents, but it's highly unlikely they'll vote counter to whoever put them on the slate. It's why going strictly by who is and isn't bound leaves out many nuances that allow much finer grain predictions to be made than simply looking over some website is going to give you.

Even in your predictions, McCain is short what? 150 or so when you count in California?

[nate895]

75+% of the delegates are bound on the first ballot. Just by fact, unquestionably.

Of the remaining 25% or so, the 150 RNC delegates will vote by tradition however their state went. After that you have the morally bound. What's left over is the group that truly isn't bound. Even out of those, you have issues of in some cases the candidates presenting a delegate slate that is voted on, with the delegates personally chosen by the candidates, yet they're considered unbound by the state in documents, but it's highly unlikely they'll vote counter to whoever put them on the slate. It's why going strictly by who is and isn't bound leaves out many nuances that allow much finer grain predictions to be made than simply looking over some website is going to give you.

Even in your predictions, McCain is short what? 150 or so when you count in California?

Yes, that is the case, but the only 7 states that I can see that are really favorable to McCain are (mostly) 6 of the 9 proportional ones left. Texas is counted among those 8, but Im betting Huckabee will get higher than 50% in all but a few districts, and statewide, thereby stealing almost all of the delegates. Ohio is by CD, same with Wisconsin and Washington (WA is prop. statewide with a 20% cutoff). One thing to note here is if Huckabee pulls off a win in Wisconsin, McCain will be set back by 20 delegates at least.

[nate895]

bump for the idiots who think there is no chance.

[Dylbro]

Sigh, same old tired incorrect bullshit...

While some states haven't chosen who is going to the convention to represent them, the decision on how they vote is not up to those delegates.

Wrong!! You do not know what your talking about. The decision is up to the delegates. If you are bound to vote for a candidate you do not have to vote for him but it will ruin your political career with the party... that is all. Go research it.

[billjarrett]

Wrong!! You do not know what your talking about. The decision is up to the delegates. If you are bound to vote for a candidate you do not have to vote for him but it will ruin your political career with the party... that is all. Go research it.

Or enhance it, depending on the direction the party goes :p

[Banana]

Wrong!! You do not know what your talking about. The decision is up to the delegates. If you are bound to vote for a candidate you do not have to vote for him but it will ruin your political career with the party... that is all. Go research it.

Erm, only for those 'morally bound'. But those are in minority. Large majority are legally bound by state's law. Not much they can do about it.

[Dylbro]

Erm, only for those 'morally bound'. But those are in minority. Large majority are legally bound by state's law. Not much they can do about it.

Again you do not know what your talking about. You do not go to the convention and have delegates just assigned to a candidate. The media wants you to think this but it is not true. They want you to think its over but it is not, the presidential process is a grassroots process not a primary sheep election. Stop watching the news, they do not represent truth. Those delegates are real people that vote and their vote is what decides the nominee not what the media projects.

Some delegates are bound on the first round or the first couple depending on the state laws ect... but they can not force you to do it. You will most likely ruin your political career and I would not encourage this as we can still get past the first round and unlock all the delegates with rule changes ect... this happens all the time and is the reason we need delegates there so we can get the platform and rules changed in our favor not in theirs. Delegates are grassroots, delegates decide the rules, they decide the platforms on all levels of government for the party. If you want to really help change this government become a delegate and get others to do so.

[Banana]

Whoa there, cowboy!

I didn't say they were bound forever. I was pointing out that most of delegates are *legally* bound on the first ballot, and subsequent balloting depends on various state's law then the state party's by-laws.

I do totally agree we need to get RP Republicans as delegates for *all* candidates.

[Dylbro]

Whoa there, cowboy!

I didn't say they were bound forever. I was pointing out that most of delegates are *legally* bound on the first ballot, and subsequent balloting depends on various state's law then the state party's by-laws.

I do totally agree we need to get RP Republicans as delegates for *all* candidates.

Sorry if I came off defensive I did not mean to do that. Yet when you say legally bound what are the consequences of breaking those laws? None. Only being barred from the political party. That is if those people in control stay in control...

[Banana]

Actually, I think *some* states have actual laws for this sort of thing. For some states, it's just party's by-laws and not actual state election laws.

[SWATH]

Actually, I think *some* states have actual laws for this sort of thing. For some states, it's just party's by-laws and not actual state election laws.

Even if there were a jail term (doubtful), it would be a small price to pay to save the country.;)

[Banana]

The only thing I'm not 100% sure is whether the delegates can actually cast a contrary vote.

I read somewhere earlier that the votes for first ballot that are bound are read off a roll call so there's no actual voting (except for those unbound). Verification?

[nate895]

The only thing I'm not 100% sure is whether the delegates can actually cast a contrary vote.

I read somewhere earlier that the votes for first ballot that are bound are read off a roll call so there's no actual voting (except for those unbound). Verification?

I think this is the case, otherwise I'm sure there was at least one person in the 2004 convention that didn't like GWB, but they were forced to vote for him anyway. However, I think that it is still possible to make this thing go to a second ballot if Huckabee wins enough states that the media finally takes off McCain's anointed status.

[Dylbro]

Yes, all I am saying is it is not over. It isn't even close to being over... politics is not cut and dry it is shady, sneaky and all about positioning. The media is trying to use their power to position themselves and their candidates. We are using the grassroots to position ourselves. I do not know all the laws in each state but their will be plenty of delegates that could break rank and vote for someone other than who they are bound to stop McCain from winning on the first ballot.

It seems like most people think that those numbers the media are posting are just assigned to candidates and this is not true at all. Unfortunately this is what they want you to think, that you don't have power and so you won't participate. The delegates will deside the nominee at the convention, not before. John McCain is not the nominee... why do you think the media keeps saying presumptive? Not because he hasn't reached the number now but because he will not be it until he recieves the votes at the convention.

The people at the convention are just people... they can change there minds. You can help them change there minds... Much can happen from now until september that could change there minds...

Just remember that even though the media will eventually report John McCain the winner he will not win unless the delegates at the convention decide to nominate him with their votes. Votes cannot be forced, even bound votes cannot be forced.

[malibuu]

Great post -

Delegate projection is up in the air totally -

McLame needs 40% at least in every remaining contest to secure the nomination according to CNN -

McvLame may NOT get that IMHO if Texans, and Ohioans, and Pennsylvanians want their votes to
mean sometin'and don't go along with the R-AZZ Senator assumption he has it locked up.

As a potential Iowa delegate - we're only at the county convention stage regardless of what you hear -
we definitely have more RP delegates in the pipeline than the mainstream media wants to admit.

They will try hard - but they can NOT stop this constitutional revolution.

[nate895]

Yes, all I am saying is it is not over. It isn't even close to being over... politics is not cut and dry it is shady, sneaky and all about positioning. The media is trying to use their power to position themselves and their candidates. We are using the grassroots to position ourselves. I do not know all the laws in each state but their will be plenty of delegates that could break rank and vote for someone other than who they are bound to stop McCain from winning on the first ballot.

It seems like most people think that those numbers the media are posting are just assigned to candidates and this is not true at all. Unfortunately this is what they want you to think, that you don't have power and so you won't participate. The delegates will deside the nominee at the convention, not before. John McCain is not the nominee... why do you think the media keeps saying presumptive? Not because he hasn't reached the number now but because he will not be it until he recieves the votes at the convention.

The people at the convention are just people... they can change there minds. You can help them change there minds... Much can happen from now until september that could change there minds...

Just remember that even though the media will eventually report John McCain the winner he will not win unless the delegates at the convention decide to nominate him with their votes. Votes cannot be forced, even bound votes cannot be forced.

They will eventually look at the delegate apportionment rules and realize that there is a shot at it, it will probably be the night of March 4th if the people of Ohio and Texas reject McCain.

[Dylbro]

They will eventually look at the delegate apportionment rules and realize that there is a shot at it, it will probably be the night of March 4th if the people of Ohio and Texas reject McCain.

Yep, they can change the rules... and this is what we must be prepared to fight and ensure they help us. It is a long battle still ahead and we must stay focused, we can win. Is it uphill? Certainly but it is very possible.

[nate895]

Yep, they can change the rules... and this is what we must be prepared to fight and ensure they help us. It is a long battle still ahead and we must stay focused, we can win. Is it uphill? Certainly but it is very possible.

They can't because then they'd lose their delegates to the convention, and that would cause outright rebellion if done Ex Post Facto, I'd think the State Party would nominate someone else to be President, splitting the GOP.

[malibuu]

Is it uphill? Certainly but it is very possible.

McLame is still a third of the delegates short at 801 or sometin'- with 1191 needed
and the R-AZZ Senator still demands that Muck Hickabee withdraw ?

Go vote your hearts out in Wisconsin ( that old white schoolhouse was the start of the Republican Party)
and in Texas and Pennsylvania and Hawai'i nei.

[nate895]

Update after Wisconsin/Washington Results.

[JordanQ72]

Yet when you say legally bound what are the consequences of breaking those laws? None.

:rolleyes:

And you're telling other people to do research. Doing some yourself might prove undoubtedly beneficial.


John McCain is not the nominee... why do you think the media keeps saying presumptive? Not because he hasn't reached the number now but because he will not be it until he recieves the votes at the convention.

Yeah, okay, back to la-la land with you. Once he breaks 1191, it won't be 'frontrunner' or 'presumptive' nominee anymore. And then where will your stupid theory be?


Also, nate, as for your Texas estimate, I don't see it happening. Huckabee might very well pick up a chunk of the delegates, but if anything, those numbers would be reversed.

[nbhadja]

Guys, McCain DOES NOT HAVE 800 DELEGATES!!!
Could you stop listening to the dam media already!!

And yes there is a real chance this could go brokered.

[A Ron Paul Rebel]

it more than likely will be brokered.

+1 for previous post

[No1ButPaul08]

it more than likely will be brokered.

+1 for previous post

No it won't. There's a chance, but more than likely is the overstatement of the year. There's about 5% chance of a brokered convention. Don't believe me, I welcome you to go to intrade.com and bet on the brokered convention. When this brokered convention that you are predicting comes, you will be paid $20 for every $1 you bet. You can donate the winnings to the cause of liberty. McCain is actually closer to 900 delegates, not 800.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p2Ua4t0-Z5pFHScTNGq7bUg

This assumes very little, only that the 3 party hack delegates for each state will vote with their state. I'd say McCain's number here is correct + or - 20 delegates. There are 1108 delegates still available. By my count McCain needs 281 of those to win, or 25.3%.

Most of the states left are proportional delegates, and McCain will get his share from the caucus states still in the process. The way I see it, the only chance there is a brokered convention is if there is more to the McCain scandals or he has a health problem. Ron has basically said the same thing. "The chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero." He also said something like, "a lot can happen between now and then," refering to McCain and his scandals or health

[Banana]

Even so, I'd think it's important to emphasize that we want to send everyone to the National Convention whether we want, brokered or not.

Nomination is the only thing delegates are bound to. Having 1191+ RP supporters as delegates, even if RP doesn't win the nomination is good enough to completely reform the party and thus pave the way for much more stronger 2010 election cycle in Congress.

Besides, we could make a strategy to bind the nominee to RP's message, but we'll need all delegates we can have to have that opportunity.

[No1ButPaul08]

Even so, I'd think it's important to emphasize that we want to send everyone to the National Convention whether we want, brokered or not.

Nomination is the only thing delegates are bound to. Having 1191+ RP supporters as delegates, even if RP doesn't win the nomination is good enough to completely reform the party and thus pave the way for much more stronger 2010 election cycle in Congress.

Besides, we could make a strategy to bind the nominee to RP's message, but we'll need all delegates we can have to have that opportunity.

I agree with everything you said. Delegates are still very important for the reasons you have noted. I was just pointing out the odds of a brokered convention are very slim, which some people can't seem to grasp, even though Ron has said so himself.

[nate895]

No it won't. There's a chance, but more than likely is the overstatement of the year. There's about 5% chance of a brokered convention. Don't believe me, I welcome you to go to intrade.com and bet on the brokered convention. When this brokered convention that you are predicting comes, you will be paid $20 for every $1 you bet. You can donate the winnings to the cause of liberty. McCain is actually closer to 900 delegates, not 800.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p2Ua4t0-Z5pFHScTNGq7bUg

This assumes very little, only that the 3 party hack delegates for each state will vote with their state. I'd say McCain's number here is correct + or - 20 delegates. There are 1108 delegates still available. By my count McCain needs 281 of those to win, or 25.3%.

Most of the states left are proportional delegates, and McCain will get his share from the caucus states still in the process. The way I see it, the only chance there is a brokered convention is if there is more to the McCain scandals or he has a health problem. Ron has basically said the same thing. "The chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero." He also said something like, "a lot can happen between now and then," refering to McCain and his scandals or health

There are only 700 something left up for grabs, and I am sticking with my Texas estimate. I have only been a few points off every state we've gone through since I started this after Super Tuesday. Also, a lot of these votes can be overridden at a state convention, more than enough to secure the nomination, take Indiana, Washington, Texas, and New Mexico for example. I know there are enough states to decide the nomination.

[No1ButPaul08]

There are only 700 something left up for grabs, and I am sticking with my Texas estimate. I have only been a few points off every state we've gone through since I started this after Super Tuesday. Also, a lot of these votes can be overridden at a state convention, more than enough to secure the nomination, take Indiana, Washington, Texas, and New Mexico for example. I know there are enough states to decide the nomination.

With the caucus states that haven't distributed there delegates, there are 1100 left. I stand by my spreadsheet, +/- 20 delegates. I have McCain at 909, with 321 delegates available from states that have already voted or caucused, and 779 available from upcoming states.

Your spreadsheet has a couple flaws. First, you are giving Romney way too many delegates. The caucus states he won are mostly unbound. These will be split among the 3 remaining candidates. Also, the 3 delegates for each state, will 99% of the time go with their state. For the rest of the 251, they are going to vote for someone, and a good percentage will be McCain party hacks. Your future projections are very hopeful and at the same time somewhat realistic, yet, take away half or Romney's delegates and add them to the 251, and McCain only need 47/370.

[GoldStan]

here is the actual delegate count:

Delegate Count
McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Total - 1019 272 254 14

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Here is an actual *source* (something sorely lacking from the "Brokered convention fer surree!!! ZOMG!!!" crowd (no you own handcrafted sspreadsheets do not count as "sources").

14 Delegates won't get Dr. Paul a cordial handshake at the convention, it surely won't get him a nomination or Veep ticket, and it won't even get him any planks in the party platform.

When multiplying your delegate count by *10* won't get you into 3rd place, it is over.


I also note that the original poster didn't update after the VA winner take all primary where McWar took all the ~60+ delegates.


Did you pay off your bet and acknowledge that you weren't even close on this? If not, you should, and publicly after the ridiculous mounts of bumps you have given your own thread.


Additionally I am *not* suprised by how many kids there are on this board. Draw whatever conclusions you like from that.

[Mister Grieves]

here is the actual delegate count:

Delegate Count
McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Total - 1019 272 254 14

I don't know if I buy the whole brokered convention fever that's been going around, but those are not actual delegate counts, merely projections. The delegates have not voted at the convention yet.

[GoldStan]

Umm no kidding Mister G... And if *10 times* as many delegates as are "projected" go wildly off the beaten path and change their vote to Dr. Paul (and then *somehow* aren't uncredentialed and replaced immediately) then Dr. Paul would have a whopping 140 delegates which still would put him in 4th place even though one of the candidates dropped out of the damn race weeks ago.

Hell even a *20* fold increase via "rogues" would only barely tie Romney!

For the record those "projected" totals also don't account for possible scenarios involving the Raelians taking conrol of the planet and changing everyone's votes via spontaneous mind-control but I think we can safely count on neither that nor the above "rogue-delegate" scenes playing out or mattering.

The RCP stuff is an average from dozens of sources on all sides of the political spectrum and is waaay more reliable than the non-sourced nonsense being posted here routinely.

Of course if the only thinking allowed for delegate counts is of the magical variety then everything is great and this campaign ran perfectly instead of the craptacular debacle that it was.


Wishful thinking is what led us to this situation and more of the same will just sink us deeper.

[Zeeder]

Umm no kidding Mister G... And if *10 times* as many delegates as are "projected" go wildly off the beaten path and change their vote to Dr. Paul (and then *somehow* aren't uncredentialed and replaced immediately) then Dr. Paul would have a whopping 140 delegates which still would put him in 4th place even though one of the candidates dropped out of the damn race weeks ago.

Hell even a *20* fold increase via "rogues" would only barely tie Romney!

For the record those "projected" totals also don't account for possible scenarios involving the Raelians taking conrol of the planet and changing everyone's votes via spontaneous mind-control but I think we can safely count on neither that nor the above "rogue-delegate" scenes playing out or mattering.

The RCP stuff is an average from dozens of sources on all sides of the political spectrum and is waaay more reliable than the non-sourced nonsense being posted here routinely.

Of course if the only thinking allowed for delegate counts is of the magical variety then everything is great and this campaign ran perfectly instead of the craptacular debacle that it was.


Wishful thinking is what led us to this situation and more of the same will just sink us deeper.

I don't think you or the media know the difference between the delegates "won" by candidates in the primaries, and the actual delegates that go to the convention.
If the ACTUAL delegates(the people going to the convention) are ron paul supporters, we have a shot.

The numbers you showed above are irrelevant with this strategy. Now it very well may be that most of Ron Paul's Supporters had your mindset and didn't even show up to vote for delegates at their local conventions. If that's the case, then the whole campaign's strategy went over everyone's head.

[Banana]

Besides, if we sent 1191 delegates who were RP supporters, even bound to other candidates, we are free to do anything toward the goal of reforming the party, and perhaps even binding the nominee to RP's message and platform.

That's the *REAL* objective, folks.

[nbhadja]

here is the actual delegate count:

Delegate Count
McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Total - 1019 272 254 14

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Here is an actual *source* (something sorely lacking from the "Brokered convention fer surree!!! ZOMG!!!" crowd (no you own handcrafted sspreadsheets do not count as "sources").

14 Delegates won't get Dr. Paul a cordial handshake at the convention, it surely won't get him a nomination or Veep ticket, and it won't even get him any planks in the party platform.

When multiplying your delegate count by *10* won't get you into 3rd place, it is over.


I also note that the original poster didn't update after the VA winner take all primary where McWar took all the ~60+ delegates.


Did you pay off your bet and acknowledge that you weren't even close on this? If not, you should, and publicly after the ridiculous mounts of bumps you have given your own thread.


Additionally I am *not* suprised by how many kids there are on this board. Draw whatever conclusions you like from that.

For the last time, would you people listen. MOST OF THE DELEGATES HAVE NOT BEEN DECIDED YET, THE MEDIA IS LYING AND MAKING PREDICTIONS BASED OFF OF THE USELESS STRAW POLLS.

It's pathetic to see how uneducated some RP (or "RP") supporters are. GO educate yourself, you are obviously the little kid with no clue.

[Bradley in DC]

Yep, they can change the rules...

In order to be eligible to be nominated, a candidate must demonstrate support from a majority of five states. Only McCain and Huckabee can do that.

To change the rules, one needs to demonstrate a majority of support from one state AND be seconded by five additional states. What six state delegations do you fancy?

And no, the convention delegates have no authority to change state election law. Either back up your delusions with references to real facts or stop misleading people.

[JordanQ72]

I have only been a few points off every state we've gone through since I started this after Super Tuesday.

That's really not too many states to use as proof of your psychic abilities. I'm calling you wrong on your Texas estimate. I called you wrong on only one of your previous estimates, Virginia, and we know how that turned out. :)

[JordanQ72]

GO educate yourself, you are obviously the little kid with no clue.

You keep spreading this bullshit over and over. Why don't you get a freaking clue and go educate yourself. You clearly don't understand the RNC rules covering binding status. You're free to point out how all of us are wrong, but you still haven't in multiple threads where I've asked you to. You can't vote against your bound status because you aren't even given the chance to vote if you're covered by a bound status.

[josh24601]

I'm excited to read more emphatic and pedantic posts by people who have strong opinions about things they don't really understand.

[GoldStan]

Besides, if we sent 1191 delegates who were RP supporters, even bound to other candidates, we are free to do anything toward the goal of reforming the party, and perhaps even binding the nominee to RP's message and platform.

That's the *REAL* objective, folks.

Ooohh! the "secret plan" reaers it's head again! The plan was *never* to you know... win any damn primaries or anything it was to simultaneously subvert 1191 delegates through some sort of magic process. how stupid of me.


Of course the media just lied about how many supporters we had and Dr. Paul *actually* got 65% of the vote so utterly subverting the delegate process is simple and already done.

Of course this is all backed up by exactly nothing outside of total fantasy and the occasional links to the same conspiracy site that have been promising to "blow the lid off 9-11/election fraud/Roswell,Hollw earth/Prosperity Plans/Omega/Nesara/Reptillian overloards/Bohmeian Groves1!1 ZOMG" for a decade with exactly no promises or proofs fulfilled.


This is *exactly* why the campaign foundered. Too much B.S. at both the meetups and on boards like this.

Normal voters don't want to hear ridiculous fancies about your conspiracy-du-jour they want actual serious politics without the tinge of lunacy.

[LibertyEagle]

Goldstan,

The fact still remains, it is all about delegates and it always has been.

[acptulsa]

Goldstan,

The fact still remains, it is all about delegates and it always has been.

Delegates select the nominee and electors select the president. Furthermore, you weren't found in a cabbage patch, nor were you dropped by a sea bird. Sorry if your education was lacking before...

[GoldStan]

Goldstan,

The fact still remains, it is all about delegates and it always has been.

Yes it is... the delegates that our capaign manifestly failed to obtain during the primary process. The Republican leadership won't simply sit down and say

"Oh, look out of nowhere 1200 delegates have defected to RP so I guess we will simply accept their decision and run with a candidate who polls at ~10% nationally instead of MCain."

As if getting even 200 delegates to defect without utter decredentialization occuring wasn't utter fantasy in the first place.

[Banana]

Ooohh! the "secret plan" reaers it's head again! The plan was *never* to you know... win any damn primaries or anything it was to simultaneously subvert 1191 delegates through some sort of magic process. how stupid of me.

Erm.... did you actually read PCC's strategy?

In past, they tried to win. Then they were hoping for a brokered convention. Now they think there is little chance of having one, but to hang in and fight all way and pick up the delegates. Ron Paul seems to believe that the best way to move forward is to 1) reform the party, 2) support other like-minded candidate.

#2 becomes much more easier if we do very good with #1.

Nothing secret about it, and I am certainly not suggesting that we subvert the nomination process but only by packing the convention with RP supporters in order to have say in party platforms and the like.

Yes, there were bullshit about stealth delegates stealing nomination, but you won't see that from my posts. I've always said that Paul can win, even without nomination if we sent 1191+ RP supporters because that mean we get to reform the party completely, even with a McCain presidency.

[nbhadja]

Ooohh! the "secret plan" reaers it's head again! The plan was *never* to you know... win any damn primaries or anything it was to simultaneously subvert 1191 delegates through some sort of magic process. how stupid of me.


Of course the media just lied about how many supporters we had and Dr. Paul *actually* got 65% of the vote so utterly subverting the delegate process is simple and already done.

Of course this is all backed up by exactly nothing outside of total fantasy and the occasional links to the same conspiracy site that have been promising to "blow the lid off 9-11/election fraud/Roswell,Hollw earth/Prosperity Plans/Omega/Nesara/Reptillian overloards/Bohmeian Groves1!1 ZOMG" for a decade with exactly no promises or proofs fulfilled.


This is *exactly* why the campaign foundered. Too much B.S. at both the meetups and on boards like this.

Normal voters don't want to hear ridiculous fancies about your conspiracy-du-jour they want actual serious politics without the tinge of lunacy.

Seriously, GET A FREAKIN CLUE. The POLLS ARE USELESS. ITS ABOUT THE DELEGATES. God some Ron Paul supporters are completely clueless.

[nbhadja]

Yes it is... the delegates that our capaign manifestly failed to obtain during the primary process. The Republican leadership won't simply sit down and say

"Oh, look out of nowhere 1200 delegates have defected to RP so I guess we will simply accept their decision and run with a candidate who polls at ~10% nationally instead of MCain."

As if getting even 200 delegates to defect without utter decredentialization occuring wasn't utter fantasy in the first place.

You apply as a delegate!! Only a certain amount of the delegates are bound off of the polls, and most of those bounded ones are only for the 1st round AND they can still vote to change the rules and platform.

Btw, watch the campaign update, they state that there goal is NOT TO DO MASS ADVERTISING, but to look for the RP supporters that will run as precinct leaders and delegates.

[GoldStan]

You apply as a delegate!! Only a certain amount of the delegates are bound off of the polls, and most of those bounded ones are only for the 1st round AND they can still vote to change the rules and platform.

Btw, watch the campaign update, they state that there goal is NOT TO DO MASS ADVERTISING, but to look for the RP supporters that will run as precinct leaders and delegates.



Banana - I will give you credit for coming back and actually making a more reasonable argument (still pretty far from likely though) but then bnhadja swept in and destroyed the whole thing by ranting on about exactly the sort of magical thinking I was talking about.

For every 1 RP supporter with a reasonable view there seem to be 2 raving lunatics who show up and poison the process with insane ramblings. Anyone the sane RP supporter was converting instantly runs away from the rambling loon. That was the campaign and it's fall from the get go and now it will be what kills any serious attempts to get *any* RP policies into the Republican party plank.

The whole movement was subverted from within by utter crazies that have killed RP's legitimacy.

Sometimes the tent can be *too* large.

[mczerone]

The whole movement was subverted from within by utter crazies that have killed RP's legitimacy.

Sometimes the tent can be *too* large.

I will agree that there were many supporters that were over-zealous and under-trained. But part of revolution is shaking the establishment - to make the old guard cringe at the mere sight of a rebel.

I would have liked the 9/11 truth movement to have stayed decoupled from Ron Paul, as he doesn't think anything weird happened, but was an effect of our foreign policy.

I wouldn't kick them out to make the tent smaller, we just need to offset the radicals with larger numbers of "Ron Paul Moderates".

Always make the tent bigger.

[amonasro]

For every 1 RP supporter with a reasonable view there seem to be 2 raving lunatics who show up and poison the process with insane ramblings. Anyone the sane RP supporter was converting instantly runs away from the rambling loon. That was the campaign and it's fall from the get go and now it will be what kills any serious attempts to get *any* RP policies into the Republican party plank.

Welcome to the forums. You come in here, make accusations, name calling, putting down the campaign, the revolution, etc etc etc... all with 37 posts. we've seen it before.

If you are not here to support the campaign and further the revolution, what are you here for? If you're here to criticize and spread negativity you're about a month late. No offense, but this place has been infested by trolls since December and we've seen the like.

At least you could work up your post count and gain some trust before outing yourself.

[joemiller]

Erm.... did you actually read PCC's strategy?

In past, they tried to win. Then they were hoping for a brokered convention. Now they think there is little chance of having one, but to hang in and fight all way and pick up the delegates. Ron Paul seems to believe that the best way to move forward is to 1) reform the party, 2) support other like-minded candidate.

#2 becomes much more easier if we do very good with #1.

Nothing secret about it, and I am certainly not suggesting that we subvert the nomination process but only by packing the convention with RP supporters in order to have say in party platforms and the like.

Yes, there were bullshit about stealth delegates stealing nomination, but you won't see that from my posts. I've always said that Paul can win, even without nomination if we sent 1191+ RP supporters because that mean we get to reform the party completely, even with a McCain presidency.

The plan is to continue the R3volution. To do this we need look no further than our own local Republican Party, our own precinct and post: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=118851.

joe

[Banana]

Everyone- A friendly reminder... (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=124732)


Every and each of us would do well to actually do the following:

1) Learn the rules of game (read your state's party rules. Organize with your meetups. get everyone elected as adelegate, etc.)

2) Know the official strategy. (That can be done by keeping close tabs on Daily Dose. Right now they want us to pick up as many delegates whereever possible in the remaining states, going to the state convention even as an alternate since there is a chance that primary delegate didn't show up at all, etc. etc.)

3) Do your homework. Far more easier than alchemy!

[GoldStan]

I wouldn't kick them out to make the tent smaller, we just need to offset the radicals with larger numbers of "Ron Paul Moderates".

Always make the tent bigger.

Thing about that is that even a small amount of vocal crazies being tolerated at meetups can prevent a movement from ever attracting enough RP moderates to attain critical mass. This is exactly what happened locally here.

The very first meetup was small but had about a 60/40 ratio of sane/crazy. That ratio would have been fine if the local captain had booted the nutbags out, instead he let them posion the whole thing. Next meeting about 90% of the moderates didn't come back.

You are known by the company you keep and most of these folks didn't want to be associated with paranois lunatics spouting gibberish at any passerby with shouting range.


Month by month attendance by moderates went down (I stopped going after Super Tuesday) and we lost, huge.

Of course I am a "troll" for pointing it out since I haven't hung out here for months cutting and pasting anti-semitic spam from conspiracy sites into Hot Topics to juice my post count.


The campaign was killed off by fringe loons who just wanted their et conspiracy or prejudice to ride RP's coattails to a little publicity.

[acptulsa]

Your angry spouting isn't any more attractive, Stan...

[GoldStan]

Your angry spouting isn't any more attractive, Stan...

Wasn't angry until this sort of magical thinking ruined the campaign. Losing is very unattractive.

[acptulsa]

Wasn't angry until this sort of magical thinking ruined the campaign. Losing is very unattractive.

If you've given up, why don't you stop stomping on the corpse and go do something productive?

[Bradley in DC]

Nate,

It's good that people are taking a substantive look at the delegates and actual rules. Given where we are in the calendar--and my expectation that McCain is not the most stable of individuals, I'd like to suggest you break down your analyses a bit by how many delegates each candidate has who are bound for each vote.

For example, 200 votes for candidate on first ballot + 100 unbound, 150 bound on second, 50 bound on third ballot, etc.

Also, have you checked your state-by-state numbers with the Call of the Convention (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=47114)?

[nate895]

Nate,

It's good that people are taking a substantive look at the delegates and actual rules. Given where we are in the calendar--and my expectation that McCain is not the most stable of individuals, I'd like to suggest you break down your analyses a bit by how many delegates each candidate has who are bound for each vote.

For example, 200 votes for candidate on first ballot + 100 unbound, 150 bound on second, 50 bound on third ballot, etc.

Also, have you checked your state-by-state numbers with the Call of the Convention (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=47114)?

And know what I just noticed:


The Rules of the House of Representatives of the United States shall be the rules of
the convention, except that the current authorized edition of Robert's Rules of Order: Newly
Revised (“Robert's Rules of Order"), shall be the rules for committees and subcommittees of
the convention, insofar as they are applicable and not inconsistent with the rules herein set
forth; provided, however, that the convention may adopt its own rules concerning the reading
of committee reports and resolutions.

[Banana]

Nate,

I'm being dense.

Why should be that be interesting?

[JordanQ72]

That's really not too many states to use as proof of your psychic abilities. I'm calling you wrong on your Texas estimate. I called you wrong on only one of your previous estimates, Virginia, and we know how that turned out. :)

Bump for wanting an updated spreadsheet.

Hey, don't worry about it. Look, most of your guesses were ok.

[puppetmaster]

The Results are finally posted for Wright County here in Minnesota.

We have secured 33 of the 55 Delegate positions, and 21 of 55 Alternate positions to the CD6 Convention on April 5th, I only gained an Alternate, along with my 2 other precinct partners. Three Delegates will be chosen from here to go to National in September.

We secured 36 of 55 Delegate slots, and 11 of the 55 Alternate slots for the State Convention May 29-31st. I will be going to the State Convention along with my other 2 precinct partners, where the balance of the 41 delegates will be chosen.

Considering the top 15 slots were seemingly given to the top Republican Party leaders, that means 33 of 40 and 36 of 40 slots won for Ron Paul.

[nate895]

Bump for wanting an updated spreadsheet.

Hey, don't worry about it. Look, most of your guesses were ok.

I ain't updating it, this type of delegate count doesn't matter anymore.