McCain may not have enough delegates when the dust settles.

[skgai]

I did some estimated math here and I just don't see that its "easy" for McCain to win. In all probablity he will, but take a look at the remaining states and territories. As long as Huckabee stays in, McCain won't win a lot of them.

List here are the State/Territory: Delegates (Opinion)

American Samoa: 6 (Who knows)
Washington, D.C.: 16 (McCain)
Guam: 6 (Who knows)
Hawaii: 20 (Toss-up between Paul and McCain)
Idaho: 26 (6 unpledged, 20 pledged proportionally) (Everyone will get delegates)
Indiana: 57 (27 Congressional district pledged, 27 unpledged chosen at Convention, 3 "superdelegates") (Too conservative, not McCain)
Kentucky: 45 (Too conservative, not McCain)
Northern Mariana Islands: 9 (who knows?)
Mississippi: 39 (Too conservative, not McCain)
North Carolina: 69 (Paul has strong grassroots, but McCain won South Carolina)
Nebraska: 33 (Huckabee)
New Mexico: 32 (Toss-up)
Ohio: 88 (McCain)
Oregon: 30 (Proportional) (All candidates will get some delegates)
Pennsylvania: 74 (Unpledged) (McCain probably)
Puerto Rico: 23 (Who knows?)
Rhode Island: 20 (Proportional) (Everyone will get some delegates)
South Dakota: 27 (Proportional) (Everyone will get some delegates)
Texas: 140 (If candidate gets 50% or more, winner-take-all, otherwise proportional) (Even if Paul looses, everyone will split the delegates)
Virginia: 63 (McCain)
Virgin Islands: 6 (Who knows?)
Vermont: 17 (McCain)
Wisconsin: 40 (Likely McCain)

Assuming McCain has 714 delegates like CNN says (which he doesn't!) and he won Washington, D.C., North Carolina, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Vermont, Wisconsin and Louisiana today along with a healthy portion of the proportional delegates and some of the territories he would have about 1,250 delegates, which is enough to secure the nomination. He needs 1,191. But he has only won less than 500 delegates for sure so far. So yes, it very likely he'll win, but its close enough to say we still have a real shot. If we can win some states we can. I mean if he only gets 1,190 delegates its anybody's guess who actually wins. I'm well aware I'm optimistic here, but that's how I live.

[hueylong]

Also -- remember that not all of the delegates are bound... McCain could have a big problem.

Especially if he starts losing races... Like, the Huckabeast win in Kansas... And Mac will probably lose to Huck or RP in Washington.

[JordanQ72]

1) "But he has only won less than 500 delegates for sure so far. "

Not really. His CNN total is very conservative, it probably stands at around 770. If you want to claim that every single unbound delegate out of those is going to vote against McCain, fine, he's still in the high 600s.

2) There are very few winner take all states up ahead. Almost all of those places you listed will have some delegates go to McCain and some to Huckabee.

[jeff43]

Not all of those are winner take all though. Even if McCain lost, he'd still pick up some delegates. It's probably just a matter of time before McCain takes the nomination. Usually when someone is the expected nominee, people start rallying around that candidate to get ready for the general election. You also need to figure in where Romney's delegates would go. McCain probably gets some of those which boosts his total even more.

[wgadget]

But MCCAIN???

He's not a conservative.

[LEK]

So is it conceivable that our wonderful delegates could pull off something extraordinary?

I suppose it would help if the "Ron Paul dropped out" propaganda would cease.

[No1ButPaul08]

Assuming McCain has 714 delegates like CNN says (which he doesn't!) and he won Washington, D.C., North Carolina, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Vermont, Wisconsin and Louisiana today along with a healthy portion of the proportional delegates and some of the territories he would have about 1,250 delegates, which is enough to secure the nomination. He needs 1,191. But he has only won less than 500 delegates for sure so far. So yes, it very likely he'll win, but its close enough to say we still have a real shot. If we can win some states we can. I mean if he only gets 1,190 delegates its anybody's guess who actually wins. I'm well aware I'm optimistic here, but that's how I live.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p2Ua4t0-Z5pFHScTNGq7bUg

As I show in the spreadsheet, McCain has 633 pledged delegates, and 711 total. Much more than your, "less than 500." Also, there are 282 delegates that are still open from states that have voted, mostly from caucus states. Say he gets 100 of those, that gives him 811 (I think 100 is low, this is through my Ron Paul goggles). There are 1000 delegates from states that have yet to vote. By my estimate McCain needs 380 of those. We have to be realistic, yes the convention can still be brokered, but we also have to realize that McCain's delegate count is not fake, and the climb is very much uphill

[hvac ak47]

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p2Ua4t0-Z5pFHScTNGq7bUg

As I show in the spreadsheet, McCain has 633 pledged delegates, and 711 total. Much more than your, "less than 500." Also, there are 282 delegates that are still open from states that have voted, mostly from caucus states. Say he gets 100 of those, that gives him 811 (I think 100 is low, this is through my Ron Paul goggles). There are 1000 delegates from states that have yet to vote. By my estimate McCain needs 380 of those. We have to be realistic, yes the convention can still be brokered, but we also have to realize that McCain's delegate count is not fake, and the climb is very much uphill

If there is a chance any chance at all!! We must fight as hard as we can!

[No1ButPaul08]

If there is a chance any chance at all!! We must fight as hard as we can!

I assure you that I'm still in this

A couple of us are working on a comprehensive delegate site. We are going to start with the upcoming states that are the easiest to win them in and then expand from there. Basically the states listed in the link in my sig

[Avalon]

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p2Ua4t0-Z5pFHScTNGq7bUg

As I show in the spreadsheet, McCain has 633 pledged delegates, and 711 total. Much more than your, "less than 500." Also, there are 282 delegates that are still open from states that have voted, mostly from caucus states. Say he gets 100 of those, that gives him 811 (I think 100 is low, this is through my Ron Paul goggles). There are 1000 delegates from states that have yet to vote. By my estimate McCain needs 380 of those. We have to be realistic, yes the convention can still be brokered, but we also have to realize that McCain's delegate count is not fake, and the climb is very much uphill Thanks for the spreadsheet! I'm from Georgia and am pretty sure Huckleberry Hound carried all the CD in Georgia save one, therefore has 66 pledged national delegates that are bound for the first round. McCain won one CD and therefore has 3 delegates bound to him the first round. I also believe that neither surpassed the 35% necessary to bind his delegates in the second round.

[Hurricane Bruiser]

Even if Huckabee doesn't pick up enough delegates to win, he might win enough to prevent McCain from getting the required amount and thus a convention fight would take place. In that case, all delegates to pledged to anyone other than McCain or Huckabee will be very valuable.

[Avalon]

Even if Huckabee doesn't pick up enough delegates to win, he might win enough to prevent McCain from getting the required amount and thus a convention fight would take place. In that case, all delegates to pledged to anyone other than McCain or Huckabee will be very valuable. Actually, in that case everyone who becomes unbound after the first round would be valuable. Like all 69 delegates in Georgia (especially the 3 McWar won).

[freelance]

What happens in this scenario:

We do NOT win five states.
McCain does not win a 50% majority.
The delegates go round after round and refuse to throw their support to a majority candidate. (Huck and RP delegates REFUSE to throw their support to anyone else.)
We have a stalemate.

What happens then?

[JordanQ72]

What happens in this scenario:

We do NOT win five states.
McCain does not win a 50% majority.
The delegates go round after round and refuse to throw their support to a majority candidate. (Huck and RP delegates REFUSE to throw their support to anyone else.)
We have a stalemate.

What happens then?

How do you have a stalemate with 2 candidates?

[literatim]

What happens in this scenario:

We do NOT win five states.

We don't need to win five states, just have the majority of delegates in 5 states.

[JordanQ72]

just have the majority of delegates in 5 states.

aka 'winning' 5 states

[kyleAF]

Truth:
Every convention is a brokered convention, it just usually isn't a contested convention. And the nominee is never selected even a minute before the convention convenes.

An interesting point: The rules of the GOP Convention follow the rules of the floor for the U.S. House of Representatives... I wonder who knows those rules best out of the candidates?

And at any time, a suspension of certain rules can be adopted.

This isn't as cut and dry as some think.

http://www.gop.com/About/AboutRead.aspx?Guid=a4cc4fcb-6043-4af2-860a-41ae912a2c42

[Avalon]

What happens in this scenario:

We do NOT win five states.
McCain does not win a 50% majority.
The delegates go round after round and refuse to throw their support to a majority candidate. (Huck and RP delegates REFUSE to throw their support to anyone else.)
We have a stalemate.

What happens then?

I believe they would suspend the rules to find a candidate a majority can agree on. If not, there would be nominee.

[Arek]

Well in a real brokered convention it could go on for days with a stalemate. Truth be told they could even throw delegates to people that have dropped out of the race technically.

[WRellim]

What happens in this scenario:

We do NOT win five states.
McCain does not win a 50% majority.
The delegates go round after round and refuse to throw their support to a majority candidate. (Huck and RP delegates REFUSE to throw their support to anyone else.)
We have a stalemate.

What happens then?

Then they suspend the 5 state rule... and allow nominations from the floor. One or more of the "restricted states" (say Delaware) under the leadership of a BushCo state party chairman nominates....

Jeb Bush!


And the hall goes crazy... Everyone BUT the RP delegates votes for jebby who then becomes the CONSENSUS candidate.

Some other BushCo guy then nominates the Newt, Gingrichfor VP! Who wins by another landslide...


Voila! Since by then Clinton will have been coronated... We would then have a Bush v Clinton race again, and the Bush Clinton duo-dynasty gets another four years no matter WHO wins. YAAAYYYY!!


And Amerika groans... as turnout in General election is a scant 10%.

Six months later a surprise "royal wedding" is announced between Chelsey and "Juan" Bush (or whatever the heck his name is).



Believe it or not... that is all entirely possible. (And don't blame me if it actually DOES, OK?)

[No1ButPaul08]

Thanks for the spreadsheet! I'm from Georgia and am pretty sure Huckleberry Hound carried all the CD in Georgia save one, therefore has 66 pledged national delegates that are bound for the first round. McCain won one CD and therefore has 3 delegates bound to him the first round. I also believe that neither surpassed the 35% necessary to bind his delegates in the second round.

I thought so too, but the delegate counts on cnn and the green papers show 45-3. I make a note on the side saying I think they are going to Huck.