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View Full Version : A Brokered Convention might be POSSIBLE! Math included...




coffeewithchess
02-09-2008, 01:29 PM
According to http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/pri...s/scorecard/#R

John McCain has 714 Delegates.
Mike Huckabee has 211 Delegates.
Mitt Romney has 299.
Ron Paul has 16(again, based off of this site, not RP's data).


There are 1140 Delegates Remaining to be assigned.
John McCain only needs 477 to win the nomination.
Mike Huckabee needs 980.

Being that most of the states remaining are not "winner take all", we the RP supporters have a choice to make. Our votes can help try make a brokered convention. I absolutely under NO circumstances will ever vote for Mike Huckabee or John McCain in the General Election. Ron Paul will be on my ballot come November even if I have to write his name on it.

That being said, it may very well benefit us to throw our support, only in certain states, to Mike Huckabee. If Huckabee wins at least 664 of the remaining delegates, the convention will be brokered. To be on the safe side, it would probably be best if John McCain and Mike Huckabee went into the convention around at least 100 delegates short of the nomination each...I think this is something that we should be seriously discussing. Believe me, I don't like Huckabee(just watch some of my YouTube videos)...I despise that man, but Huckabee is our best chance for a brokered convention at this point I believe.

Also, I'm ASSUMING that Romney's current delegates will stay with Romney for the hopes of a brokered convention...I have no way of knowing which candidate the current Romney delegates will go to, so that is also a big determining factor.

Any opinions? Mods, will you please leave this here for a positive discussion.

hotbrownsauce
02-09-2008, 01:30 PM
I think some of us are confused what brokerd means.

coffeewithchess
02-09-2008, 01:31 PM
I think some of us are confused what brokerd means.

Meaning after all the State Primaries and Caucuses, no candidate has 1191 delegates.

redsrule2500
02-09-2008, 01:33 PM
OKAY SURE, but then the brokered convention would be McCain v. Huck! Where's Paul come into this?!

affa
02-09-2008, 01:35 PM
OKAY SURE, but then the brokered convention would be McCain v. Huck! Where's Paul come into this?!

James A. Garfield won a brokered convention and he wasn't even a candidate.

redsrule2500
02-09-2008, 01:36 PM
James A. Garfield won a brokered convention and he wasn't even a candidate.

Oh...well that could be even worse.

Most of the republican party doesn't like Paul - at least not now. That's the biggest problem with the brokered convention theory, they would be more likely to pull someone else into it then nominate Paul, unfortunately :(

matthylland
02-09-2008, 01:37 PM
OKAY SURE, but then the brokered convention would be McCain v. Huck! Where's Paul come into this?!

What would happen is then the convention goes into this "2nd round", where anyone can vote for anyone...including Paul.

so, I have been hearing this about our grand finale of getting every possible Ron Paul person in Minneapolis at the convention. Then, we show our power with 200,000 people there and hope to get some good speeches and get Ron Paul as winner of the 2nd round there.

Melissa
02-09-2008, 01:38 PM
Oh...well that could be even worse.

Most of the republican party doesn't like Paul - at least not now. That's the biggest problem with the brokered convention theory, they would be more likely to pull someone else into it then nominate Paul, unfortunately :(

and you still dont get it do you-does not matter who the GOP likes it matters who the delegates like in a brokered convention

boondoggle
02-09-2008, 01:38 PM
I think Paul could present himself as the REAL Republican party, McCain as the FAKE, and Huck as the confused FOOL in the room.

affa
02-09-2008, 01:44 PM
here's the deal -

IF people reject McCain in the coming months, we will likely win.

Why?

Huckabee believes the world is only 6,000 years old. No disrespect to those of you among us that agree with him, but that is the absolute definition of unelectability.

McCain is a lying warmonger with a temper and a left leaning tendency. The odds of him being rejected between now and then exist.

Ron Paul's biggest crime? Believing in the Constitution. While media censorship can affect primaries, it will be much harder to influence delegates after Ron Paul has a chance to speak.

Ron Paul is the ONLY way a Republican can take office in 2008. And while I agree the GOP and the mainstream media may be gifting the election to the Democrats this year, I do not believe the delegates are all corrupt.

Ron Paul 2008.

Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice
02-09-2008, 01:44 PM
Ron needs hundreds of more delegates, at least as many as Romney. There's a good chance the majority of the remaining delegates are divvied up between Ron and Huck... we just need Ron to start winning states

hotbrownsauce
02-09-2008, 01:44 PM
ohhh, okay thanks

Soccrmastr
02-09-2008, 01:44 PM
Unfortunately I agree, we might need to help out Huckster. Our current grassroots movement has a good relationship with their movement already. BUT, we will need Ron Paul supporters to run as delegates for of course Ron Paul, but also need RP supporters elected as Huck delegates.

jp5065
02-09-2008, 01:48 PM
Romney delegates will have to vote for somebody...

McCain has won 57% of the delegates so far.

He has to get 41% of the remaining delegates.

coffeewithchess
02-09-2008, 01:48 PM
I think Paul could present himself as the REAL Republican party, McCain as the FAKE, and Huck as the confused FOOL in the room.

Yes, exactly. RP could show video clips of George Bush from 2000 running against Al Gore talking about a "humble foreign policy".
Videos like, http://youtube.com/watch?v=fn913lh-DSg ( Ron Paul and George Bush agree about something)
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ecgXbx6uwUw John McCain talking about leaving Haiti ASAP...

JordanQ72
02-09-2008, 01:51 PM
Huckabee believes the world is only 6,000 years old. No disrespect to those of you among us that agree with him, but that is the absolute definition of unelectability.

You know what's interesting? That is exactly what Ron Paul believes as well. Ron Paul also doesn't believe in evolution. And he's older than McCain.

Watch how you criticize other candidates when you aren't completely aware of where you own stands.

affa
02-09-2008, 01:54 PM
You know what's interesting? That is exactly what Ron Paul believes as well. Ron Paul also doesn't believe in evolution. And he's older than McCain.

Watch how you criticize other candidates when you aren't completely aware of where you own stands.

Show me Ron Paul claiming the world is 6,000 years old.

I have seen the footage of him discussing evolution. I am ok with that.

And I did not mention age.

JordanQ72
02-09-2008, 01:54 PM
Also, a point to note, the polls that are being run right now show Huckabee pulling in 25% of the vote with a 60+% slam dunk on the McCain side in key states.

This could of course change, but it would seem McCain is literally days away from clinching the nomination mathematically.

nate895
02-09-2008, 01:55 PM
We did it in West Virginia, why not everywhere else?

We need only strategically place our votes. Make sure that your vote will not seal the deal for a candidate. If you're in Ohio and Ron Paul is polling at 10% and McCain is 45%, and Huckabee is 35%, vote Huckabee to prevent McCain from running away with the nomination. But remember to elect the right delegates.

nate895
02-09-2008, 01:56 PM
Also, a point to note, the polls that are being run right now show Huckabee pulling in 25% of the vote with a 60+% slam dunk on the McCain side in key states.

This could of course change, but it would seem McCain is literally days away from clinching the nomination mathematically.

Interesting, no polls outside of Virginia have been conducted, and that could change if Ron Paul wins WA and Huckabee wins Kansas.

OferNave
02-09-2008, 01:57 PM
Voting for Huck is foolish and risky. We need Ron Paul to win as many delegates as possible. If it will be brokered or not, is beyond our control. Sabotaging any chance Ron Paul has at getting as many delegates is possible IS in our control, and if we throw that away, we have nothing.

Don't try to rationalize it. If you had perfect control of the voting base, maybe you could do the math and improve our situation by calculated sacrifices. But you don't, so propagating this meme will lead to ruin.

JordanQ72
02-09-2008, 01:58 PM
Show me Ron Paul claiming the world is 6,000 years old.

He's stated his OWN PERSONAL RELIGIOUS VIEWS quite clearly numerous times. That you're ignorant of that, is your own problem. That you're trying to make someone's personal religious beliefs an issue is even more illogical.


I have seen the footage of him discussing evolution. I am ok with that.

Why? Because I just hit you really hard with the same logic you're using against Huckabee and you're trying to sidestep the issue?


And I did not mention age.

A lot of people have on this forum in relation to McCain. I was making a general point of how people attack other candidates.

JordanQ72
02-09-2008, 02:02 PM
Interesting, no polls outside of Virginia have been conducted

You mean released, they are being conducted. The major polling firms wanted to wait after Super Tuesday until some dust settles. They fired up the polling teams Thursday afternoon, with the usual 3 day spread. Expect polls to be publicly released Sunday night and Monday morning from most firms in the upcoming key states. I have a contact at one of the firms, and it doesn't look at all promising for Huckabee.

Bladestunner316
02-09-2008, 02:05 PM
according to the campaign and the michigan gop Roneys delegats go unpledged. They are are free and unbound.

unloud
02-09-2008, 02:07 PM
He's stated his OWN PERSONAL RELIGIOUS VIEWS quite clearly numerous times. That you're ignorant of that, is your own problem. That you're trying to make someone's personal religious beliefs an issue is even more illogical.

I'd love to have a link that shows him saying "I believe, personally, that the world is 6,000 years old" or something similar.

Liberté
02-09-2008, 02:13 PM
I'd love to have a link that shows him saying "I believe, personally, that the world is 6,000 years old" or something similar.

Yes, Ron Paul is a deeply spiritual person. He does agree with creationism. Something I have noticed throughout this race is that a lot of Ron Pauls most ardent supporters really don't know a lot about him or his platform.

His real supporters knew all along there would be no 3rd Party Run. We all knew he was a dedicated Republican. We knew how brokered conventions worked months ago. Go to RonPaul2008.com and READ his issue page. Listen to his speechs, the whole thing! Come on, get educated people. You are acting like sheeple, basing everything on 2 second sound bites.

JordanQ72
02-09-2008, 02:20 PM
I'd love to have a link that shows him saying "I believe, personally, that the world is 6,000 years old" or something similar.

I'm sorry the world isn't youtubed, but it isn't. He's made his religious convictions well known numerous time, and has been a champion against atheists trying to scrub out God from the public.

affa
02-09-2008, 03:09 PM
He's stated his OWN PERSONAL RELIGIOUS VIEWS quite clearly numerous times. That you're ignorant of that, is your own problem. That you're trying to make someone's personal religious beliefs an issue is even more illogical.



Why? Because I just hit you really hard with the same logic you're using against Huckabee and you're trying to sidestep the issue?



A lot of people have on this forum in relation to McCain. I was making a general point of how people attack other candidates.

Actually, no. I asked for proof and you didn't provide.

affa
02-09-2008, 03:09 PM
I'm sorry the world isn't youtubed, but it isn't. He's made his religious convictions well known numerous time, and has been a champion against atheists trying to scrub out God from the public.

Being a Christian and believing the world is 6,000 years old are not one and the same.

affa
02-09-2008, 03:10 PM
Voting for Huck is foolish and risky. We need Ron Paul to win as many delegates as possible. If it will be brokered or not, is beyond our control. Sabotaging any chance Ron Paul has at getting as many delegates is possible IS in our control, and if we throw that away, we have nothing.

Don't try to rationalize it. If you had perfect control of the voting base, maybe you could do the math and improve our situation by calculated sacrifices. But you don't, so propagating this meme will lead to ruin.

QFT

Naraku
02-11-2008, 08:44 PM
I'd love to have a link that shows him saying "I believe, personally, that the world is 6,000 years old" or something similar.

To your credit, he did act kind of confusing when he didn't raise his hand on the evolution question a while back.

However, he is definitely a religious guy, but that's not important at all. What matters are his issues.

BlueCalico
02-22-2008, 11:24 PM
THE CONVENTION DOES NOT HAVE TO BE BROKERED! We can overturn Rules at the State Conventions. Google - [your state] Republican Convention. Look for your state information at ronpaul2008.com, States.

STUDY and LEARN!