0% Change of a Brokered Convention?

[romeshomey]

I don't get it. I have been trying to think of why Ron Paul said there was about a 0% chance of a brokered convention with Romney out of the race.

Why does he think that? He doesn't think there can be a 3 way split between McCain, Huckabee, and himself?

I find it odd that as Ron Paul says there is a 0% chance since Romney dropped out, the MSM has been reporting that now that Romney is gone, it's looking more like a brokered convention.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this becuase I thought the WHOLE strategy from day one was to win a brokered convention. I thought that is why he was aiming for the caucus' and not focusing on the primary states.

What am I missing, and why does the MSM report that it looks like there is going to be a brokered convention since Romney dropped out and Ron saying it now looks like 0%.

Anyone?

[Paulitical Correctness]

Super secret ultimate genius plan of making McCainers apathetic, then we turn out in epic numbers. :mad:

[billjarrett]

I find it odd that the media is reporting that it may be brokered because Romney dropped out...

Romney staying in would have helped us (IMHO). McCain isn't that far away from the nomination delegate wise, and Romney would have helped absorb that a bit.

[Shed]

"With Romney gone, the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero. Let me tell you my thoughts. With Romney gone, the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero. But that does not affect my determination to fight on, in every caucus and primary remaining, and at the convention for our ideas, with just as many delegates as I can get."

Chances are nearly zero; McCain doesn't need many delegates to win and there isn't a second media-anointed candidate. The Ron Paul campaign isn't going to give up, though.

[AlexMerced]

I thin the chances are better without romney, since him and huck were splitting the anti-mccain vote. But we'll see after today if my speculation holds.

[Paulitical Correctness]

Key word being nearly zero.

And plus, Ron didn't write that email. I just can't hear him saying "Chances are nearly zero", his vocabulary is much broader.

Anyway, even if that chance is %.00001 I'm in!

:)

[AlexMerced]

Key word being nearly zero.

And plus, Ron didn't write that email. I just can't hear him saying "Chances are nearly zero", his vocabulary is much broader.

Anyway, even if that chance is %.00001 I'm in!

:)

Same here

[romeshomey]

I find it odd that the media is reporting that it may be brokered because Romney dropped out...

Romney staying in would have helped us (IMHO). McCain isn't that far away from the nomination delegate wise, and Romney would have helped absorb that a bit.

Sure, but the media also knows conservatives are turning on McCain and the convicted conservative base of the party is refusing to vote for him. Surely they won't allow him to pick up the rest of the delegates he needs. They have been pushing support for Huckabee now since Romney has left in hopes of getting voters to switch support to Huckabee.

Since Romney and McCain had the most number of delegates, if Huckabee picks up most of the rest, surely there is a chance of a brokered convention.

[SteveMartin]

Chances are only "nearly 0" if the chicken sh**t losers in Arlington don't get off their duffs and expose McCain.

This is the moment, NOW!!!, RIGHT NOW!!!! and they MUST seize it. McCain is the dirtiest candidate on either side (with the possible expections of Clinton, and the departed Giuliani) and we MUST get the word out about who this guy really is.

DO THAT, and add in the info about the blatant "front end" vote fraud on Super Tuesday--where people were told they couldn't vote for RP because he had dropped out-- and WE WIN.

It's really that simple.

If Arlington has any of our hard-earned dollars left, they better get going and work on those two things.

Expose McCain
Expose Super Tuesday Fraud
Put RP in the White House

[runningdiz]

A bunch of people realized the chance of a brokered convention was done when Romney left. That was the worst thing that could of happened yet some naive people still believe its better. Mccain has 700 delegates with 1,100 up for grabs he needs 1,119 to win that means ron and huck have to win pretty much every delegate to stop him for taking the nomination. The chances of that happening are slim since the MSM has propped mccain up which means he will get some more delegates.

[thegr8drronpaul]

We need everyone who despises McCain to vote for Huck or better yet Ron of course :)

We can't let them stay home - that's the goal.

Now how do we do this. Why isn't the campaign putting out ads that just directly address the public telling them to do this? I just don't understand the campaign sometimes (well most the time).

This is the last hope, so they should use all the money they have to get tv ads out -like yesterday- saying that if you don't want McCain in the white house, vote for paul or huck. We need to prevent McCain from getting to the magic number, right? That's the only way to do it. Why not join forces with Huck right now to accomplish this? Aren't we desperate now?

[SteveMartin]

THE CHANCES ARE GREAT IF WE CAN GET THE PUBLIC TO MEET THE REAL JOHN McCAIN!!!

All it takes is one violent outburst by JM on national TV against rally-goers chanting "song bird," or one very well done TV ad in the states with primaries and caucuses left, and he is finished!

[thegr8drronpaul]

Yes, thank you SteveMartin. Why aren't we running those ads. Don't we have an insider here that should be at least attempting RP's campaign to do this? I Just don't understand.

[NoMoreApathy]

What I find odd about there being less of a chance of a brokered convention, is that with Romney out, his support may now go largely to Paul and Huck, as we at least can both claim conservatism.

I've seen a lot of people say "i'm late on the RP bandwagon, but better late then never".

Too many people hate McCain enough to not give him support.

There's going to be less overall turnout, and more support for Huck and Paul, meaning LESS support for McCain.

How can it really be explained any other way?

[hippomofatumas]

whether or not there will be a brokered convention isn't really the issue. there might well be one if huck and paul take some of mccain's delegates away. the problem lies in paul getting into the convention. remember? he has to win the majority of the delegates from 5 states/territories? I'm hoping and praying, but if he doesn't get 5 states, then the convention could be brokered but it wouldn't matter.

not trying to be pessimistic. we have done so much. ron paul has started the ball rolling. i'm still hoping he picks up the 5 states. anything is possible. but still be prepared for massing together OUTSIDE the convention. poo.

[JordanQ72]

Why does he think that? He doesn't think there can be a 3 way split between McCain, Huckabee, and himself?

Nothing even remotely shows this to be true, so WHAT EVIDENCE do you have that this would start occuring?


I find it odd that as Ron Paul says there is a 0% chance since Romney dropped out, the MSM has been reporting that now that Romney is gone, it's looking more like a brokered convention.

I think you're confusing parties. When Romney dropped out, the media basically said McCain is guaranteed nom, and the DEMOCRATS are looking at a guaranteed brokered convention. Could you please point to any articles even hinting that McCain isn't the lock in at this point and the Republicans would have a brokered convention?

[Redcard]

Guys.. you don't get what this is about.

He's LOSING his congressional race.

[louisiana4liberty]

In other words, the odds are stacked against us. The censorship prevailed. We must fight on. :cool: RP if you have to write him in.

[freelance]

THE CHANCES ARE GREAT IF WE CAN GET THE PUBLIC TO MEET THE REAL JOHN McCAIN!!!

All it takes is one violent outburst by JM on national TV against rally-goers chanting "song bird," or one very well done TV ad in the states with primaries and caucuses left, and he is finished!

Pray for a macaca moment. It could easily happen, and if it does, McCain is toast. Don't be surprised if one of those "truther" organizations that you all hate push him into his macaca moment--either that or the Ron Paul crazies. At this point, I don't care who does it or how they do it.

The man has the temper from hell; it won't take much. And, once he explodes at the wrong time and says the wrong thing, it's over for him.

[slamhead]

I am holding my optimism until all the state conventions are over. This may be a way for Dr. Paul to downplay the chances to head off any dirty tricks by the GOP.

[JordanQ72]

If Huckabee (or Paul) wins Kansas today, it's heading to a brokered convention.

Why?

[nc4rp]

this guy says Romney's plan is to let Huck win the states that otherwise mitt and Huck would split leaving Mcain winner. This allows Huck to compete and nudge Mcain into a brokered convention - where Mitt will step back in for negotiations (or step back in for the last few states after its mathmatical impossibilty for Mcain to win 1191 delegates.) #109 - Romney SUSPENDS his campaign (http://causeoffreedom.blogspot.com/2008/02/109-romney-suspends-his-campaign.html) i would guess this helps Paul in 2 ways - brokered convention, and also Paul is 3rd place still in the marathon leaving 7 months left to get the word out for Paul.

[Redcard]

Suspending the campaign in the Republican party is effectively ending it.

The delegates may be redistributed by the states. Romney has no bargaining chips.

No, Romney left because he didn't think he could catch McCain, he is a business man, he's looking at 2012, and he and his family are tired of spending the family fortune on something that won't return. That's it. It's not a CFR thing, or an NWO thing.. it's a business man making a purely business decision.

[Redcard]

AHe should have resigned immediately from Congress, to run for President.

At least next election, I will know, not to throw my support behind someone that keeps doors open, and has a way out. If youre not willing to burn bridges, so you can only go forward, you wont be getting my hard earned cash or my support. Period.

The man is 71 years old.

The decision he faced is 2 years in congress, or the end of his political career. He's not got much left, and that's NOT me being mean, it's just a fact of life. Once you're out of "the club" it's hard to get back in.

[affa]

We'll all laugh about this after Ron Paul wins the brokered convention.

[Elle]

This will help get us to a brokered convention.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=113576

[speciallyblend]

well i guess ,ill have to let republicans know they will not be getting my vote if there is a 0% chance of a brokered convention,then there is a 0% chance the republican party can win,and im making sure of it.

[JordanQ72]

this guy says Romney's plan is to let Huck win the states that otherwise mitt and Huck would split leaving Mcain winner.

The remaining states that are winner take all are quite few in number, and don't favor Huckabee anyway. There is no conspiracy. Romney's a shrewd player, that's it. He's blasted through $50 million of his own money to be in a 400+ delegate deficit with McCain. There is no direct win out of this. On the other hand, there's no reason to drop out when you can suspend a campaign at this point. McCain is pretty old, there's a chance he might be dead before a convention, or Huckabee might very well outdo McCain, but only into a brokered convention. The chance of either are rather small, but it costs him nothing to not officially drop out, he's not really planning on either, just playing the game shrewdly.

[speciallyblend]

reading his letter , i think its best he drops out of the race. the republican party doesnt matter to me anymore.

[hvac ak47]

100% incorrect...he needs a majority of delegates from 5 states once the convention is brokered not before.

Well if he doesnt have the majority after its brokered its over anyways!

[JordanQ72]

100% incorrect...he needs a majority of delegates from 5 states once the convention is brokered not before.

WRONG

Where is your proof for this? The requirements to even be listed for convention consideration are before any by-laws outlining a brokered convention, none of which say that rules previous don't apply anymore.

[coffeewithchess]

I thin the chances are better without romney, since him and huck were splitting the anti-mccain vote. But we'll see after today if my speculation holds.

I'm thinking the same thing. Also, I don't understand how the media is saying the Democrats could end up with a brokered convention with only two candidates remaining they will talk about(being that they ignore Mike Gravel).

[Redcard]

The Democrats are going to a brokered convention, where it's likely they'll go dream ticket of Obama/Clinton.

[slantedview]

it is SITLL POSSIBLE, which is enough for me

[TruthAtLast]

There still COULD be a brokered convention but the he is right that the chances are slim.

If McCain wins a few of the major states, he'll have enough delegates to win outright. And if he doesn't, he'll still have a commanding lead in the first round of the GNC. He only needs 51% on the first round ballot to win.

With Romney in the race, he would have likely won several of the remaining states and his & Huck's delegates would have practically guaranteed that McNugget wouldn't have 51% in the first round.

The only shot at this point is if

Romney's supporters shift to Huckabee. This is possible because many hate McCain, but even if he doesn't get 1191 he'll still have the overwhelming majority at the GNC. Huck has surprised before but the chances are slim.
Ron Paul surprises and somehow manages to pull off a few upsets including a big state like Texas. If that happened, then there might be light at the end of the tunnel, but again RP isn't saying that it is IMPOSSIBLE. He is just saying that the chances are very slim.


Honestly, I think he is worried about losing the nomination AND his Congressional seat. He is right that the media would spin it as a major blow to our cause. Much of the gain we've fought for might be taken back.

We need to continue to support Ron but more importantly we need to continue to support the CAUSE.

Do all of you REALLY believe in what we are fighting for or were you just on the RON PAUL bandwagon? I think that we are all in this together and we have the power to take this to a new level.

Here is what we must do:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=116908

[Redcard]

I love how you guys talk about John McCain being old , as though he might kick at anytime.

He's almost a year YOUNGER than Ron Paul!

Geeze, stop pretending like age is an issue here.

[CurtisLow]

Key word being nearly zero.

And plus, Ron didn't write that email. I just can't hear him saying "Chances are nearly zero", his vocabulary is much broader.

:)

That's what I thought!

[speciallyblend]

STFU or GTFO. Your choice. We won't miss you.

See you when it's sunny and warm.

you enjoy voting for mccain/huckabee now ya here;0 dont forget to let the government to allow you to purchase your sunny warm days for you.

I'll vote ron paul but i will not become a sheep of the gop. thank you wont miss you either ..