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View Full Version : I'm No Expert, But Here's Why Third Party is a Tactically Dumb Move




nodope0695
02-08-2008, 05:46 PM
PLEASE KEEP THIS BUMPED SO EVERYBODY GETS THE MEMO :)

I wrote this origionally as a response to a response on another thread, and thought it would help to dispell all this third party independent crap.

As to the third party thing, it does us no good to keep harping on it. Our plan is to get to the convention. There are 20 more states to go, and almost all of the delegates are up for grabs, especially now that Romney is out.

Ron Paul is a member of the GOP, not the NeoCon GOP, the BASE GOP. Like it or not, that is the way it is. Ron Paul is also a sitting congressman in the GOP. He is running for reelection IN the GOP. It would be political suicide if he went third party, especially now.

And YES, "NO INTENTIONS" means NO. I can't wrap my head around why that is so hard for other people to, well...wrap THEIR heads around. You're falling into the MSM trap of pushing for a third party. That is exactly what they, and the NeoCons want to happen.

Do you know your history? Third parties have NEVER been given a fair chance, NEVER. You think we're marginalized now? We'd be completely, and totally INVISIBLE if Ron went third party. I don't claim to know what Ron's intentions are, but I'm not blind either. Those who don't know their history are doomed to repeat it....

Do some research on third party runs...Did you know Ron Paul ran as a Libertarian back in 1988 before you joined the Revolution? I didn't. I'd never heard of the dude. Perhaps you knew of him, but I was too young back then, and smoking too much pot to have given a shit. But I do remember Bush Sr. and Mike Dukakis because they were all over the news.

My question to you and the other third party pushers is this: What do you hope to achieve in a third party run?

If Ron runs third party, the Democrats win. If Ron drops out after the convention, and McCain get the nomination, the Democrats win. Either way, the Democrats win. BUT, if Ron gets to the convention, and speaks to that crowd, there is no way McCain will get the required 51% for the nomination. That room is going to be full of base GOPers and conservatives who don't like McCain, and might vote for RP on a second ballot. This is what I bleive is the campaing's plan. And I think there is hope for it if we can just simply focus on ONE plan, and quit throwing out all this third part stuff...its defeatist and unrealistic, and it would be just plain stupid from a tactical standpoint.

This is a game wether we like it or not. We've got to play it on the field, not from the parking lot where the third party tailgaters hang out.

Delaware
02-08-2008, 05:48 PM
Exactly, he's already going to have a tough time getting elected already, all the neocons in his district that didn't pay attention before, now know what he stands for.

I saw a video Ron saying he is 99.999% sure he is not running 3rd Party.

beachmaster
02-08-2008, 05:52 PM
Ron Paul himself said at one of the recent debates that the Republicans SHOULD worry that he might go third party.

It's good to keep them on their toes, to let them know that all options ARE in fact still on the table.

nodope0695
02-08-2008, 05:54 PM
Exactly, he's already going to have a tough time getting elected already, all the neocons in his district that didn't pay attention before, now know what he stands for.

I saw a video Ron saying he is 99.999% sure he is not running 3rd Party.

Yep, but people love to hold on to that 0.0001% chance that he just might run independent....

Annoying Person: So, Dr. Paul, do you have any plans to run as an indpendent:

Ron Paul: I have no intentions of running as an independent. I am a member of the GOP and I'll keep running as long as my supporters want me to.

Annoying Person: So, you're leaving the option open?

Ron Paul: No intentions...

Annoying Person: So, no means yes...?

Ron Paul: *sigh*

Redcard
02-08-2008, 05:58 PM
How many non-nominated non-3rd party/independant candidates have become president?

nodope0695
02-08-2008, 06:00 PM
How many non-nominated non-3rd party/independant candidates have become president?

Hmmmm....I'll have to look that one up...gimme a minute or two.

beachmaster
02-08-2008, 06:03 PM
I doubt that Ron Paul will go third party or independent any time soon. There is definitely still a chance for him in the GOP.

But if it comes to a point of him statistically no longer standing a chance of winning the GOP nomination, AND he were to receive a huge record breaking "Indy Money Bomb", along with millions of supporters writing and youtubing and begging Ron Paul not to drop out just because he didn't get the GOP nod (this is not being negative, just giving a theoretical possibility here), Ron Paul would keep his word, to keep going as long as his supporters wanted him to, and contributed financially.

I just can't see him going against his word to his supporters.

And as he himself has said, the republicans should worry about the possibility. Why would he say that on a national debate if there were no merit to the statement?

Energy
02-08-2008, 06:08 PM
People need to realize that anything can happen... McCain and Huckabee could be swiftboated or get hit by meteors. Ron's in the GOP race for the long haul and has a high chance of being the last man standing.

Redcard
02-08-2008, 06:09 PM
People need to realize that anything can happen... McCain and Huckabee could be swiftboated or hit by meteors. Ron's in the GOP race for the long haul and has a high chance of being the last man standing.

McCain and Huck are going to win this thing because they've already strategized their way to the END.

Liberal (mathematically) estimates put their combined delegate total at a little under 1000. Add in Mitt Romney's redistributed delegates, and, folks, they HAVE IT. That means IF the convention goes brokered, they make the deal and end it.

justatrey
02-08-2008, 06:12 PM
Nice post. I'm with you 100% in terms of what our goal needs to be - get Ron to the convention. However, the reason people, including myself, can't wrap their heads around "no intentions" is because we've all seen it before.

If I'm not mistaken Hillary said she had NO intentions of running for president a couple years ago. Its a common tactic used by polititions - say you have no intentions, say you are 99.9999999 percent sure you won't, but never say never.

nodope0695
02-08-2008, 06:12 PM
Umm, DUH!

He's running for re-election to Congress as a GOPer.

If he announces a 3rd-party run for President, the GOP can throw him out and put in another candidate for his Congressional seat.

Exactly what I meant by "Political Suicide".

nodope0695
02-08-2008, 06:16 PM
How many non-nominated non-3rd party/independant candidates have become president?

Okay, I looked it up on Wikipedia. No third party candidate, sans a nomination has ever become president. The closes anybody ever came was Theodore Roosevelt in 1908. You can't go back much further than that because the parties fractured during the Civil War years, and never really coalesced until the beginning of the early 20th century.

Here's the link to wikipedia...good info about third parties and the obsticals they must over come by their very nature due to the laws in place.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_%28United_States%29

Liberty_is_NORML
02-08-2008, 06:21 PM
I would only offer this...

What gets the message out more?

A third party / independent run that would be obviously well funded or another term in Congress getting stonewalled by the Neo Cons?

I don't know, man. Dr. Paul is 72 years old. I would say that another 9 months of us funding his campaign, educating people, growing this movement and blasting the MSM might be more effective.

nodope0695
02-08-2008, 06:28 PM
If I'm not mistaken Hillary said she had NO intentions of running for president a couple years ago. Its a common tactic used by polititions - say you have no intentions, say you are 99.9999999 percent sure you won't, but never say never.

Good point I didn't take into account...maybe I'm wrong, but its not time for a third party run just yet.

nodope0695
02-08-2008, 06:29 PM
I would only offer this...

What gets the message out more?

A third party / independent run that would be obviously well funded or another term in Congress getting stonewalled by the Neo Cons?

I don't know, man. Dr. Paul is 72 years old. I would say that another 9 months of us funding his campaign, educating people, growing this movement and blasting the MSM might be more effective.

Agreed, but lets get past the convention...we've got to sweat this thing out to the last possible moment.

JS4Pat
02-08-2008, 06:43 PM
If there was EVER a time for a legitimate Independent Run it is 2008!

The GOP is as corrupt and morally bankrupt as the MSM. We will get nowhere with them. Believe me I have spent the last 8 months attending GOP meeting and making the "conservative" case for Ron Paul. They want nothing to do with us - even if it means losing to Hillary!

Where we do seem to be getting somewhere is with other third party members, Independents, new voters and pissed off Democrats and Republicans. And that represents a BIG voting block - potentially-.

It could work but unfortunately I don't think Ron Paul wants to win bad enough to do what has to be done. :(

morerocklesstalk
02-08-2008, 07:03 PM
The GOP is divided already and really in shambles. I have no fear of backlash from them.

If anything a 3rd party run can be seen as a return to conservative fiscal responsibility. As long as we stay civil and not disrespectful to the Republican party we can easily earn their respect as an Independent. The GOP sitting and being complacent while conforming the principles of the party to match a misguided canidate will not go over well with most of the party and supporters.

With McCain as a frontrunner, he has a possibility to change their agenda and their public persception for quite sometime. When is enough, enough?

beachmaster
02-08-2008, 07:09 PM
If there was EVER a time for a legitimate Independent Run it is 2008!

The GOP is as corrupt and morally bankrupt as the MSM. We will get nowhere with them. Believe me I have spent the last 8 months attending GOP meeting and making the "conservative" case for Ron Paul. They want nothing to do with us - even if it means losing to Hillary!

Where we do seem to be getting somewhere is with other third party members, Independents, new voters and pissed off Democrats and Republicans. And that represents a BIG voting block - potentially-.

It could work but unfortunately I don't think Ron Paul wants to win bad enough to do what has to be done. :(

Agree with all points.

colecrowe
02-08-2008, 07:14 PM
He must make the decision by the end of the day on March 4th. If he is doing very well, then stay GOP. If he is doing badly, declare iNDY and win:

run a couple nationwide infomercials, then 25 million dollar independence day money bomb, then get 200,000 plus precinct captains (open up all the states--that have already voted--again), then have 7 months to do it all.

Perot did it with only 65 million (100 million in todays dollars)--HE DID NOT SPEND "BILLIONS"!!! We have way more of a grassroots than he could have dreamed of! The ballots would be a cakewalk!

Everyone in my family will donate tons if he declares iNDY (or if he starts winning state after state--not gonna happen).

morerocklesstalk
02-08-2008, 07:18 PM
He should make a plea with conservatives that John McCain is the unelectable one.

The truth is McCain will get nailed at every debate against either Hillary or Obama. Democrats don't have to worry about party backlash for going against him like fellow Republicans have to during the primaries. The kid gloves will come off and he will look like a fool, especially against someone like Obama who can atleast BS an answer.

colecrowe
02-08-2008, 07:20 PM
Agreed, but lets get past the convention...we've got to sweat this thing out to the last possible moment.

It is too late by then. I say wait until March 4th. But probably no later.

torchbearer
02-08-2008, 07:21 PM
If people won't vote for Ron as a republican, they won't vote for him as third party.
The sheeple are programmed two-party and everything else is crazy fringe waste of vote mantra.

colecrowe
02-08-2008, 07:28 PM
If people won't vote for Ron as a republican, they won't vote for him as third party.
The sheeple are programmed two-party and everything else is crazy fringe waste of vote mantra.

Like the 40% (1st place plurality) that Ross Perot had before he announced that he was dropping out--or the 19% that he finally got?

Whatever.

Have some hope and faith.

Why not try? Why are you all so defeatist and against it!? (after it becomes apparrent that he can't get the nomination--I'm not saying we are at that point--I say we will know March 4th)

You all can do what you want, but as for me and my family--we will donate thousands and thousands and call and canvass and get ballot signatures til we drop dead if he declares iNDY--and I KNOW so many hundreds and hundreds of thousands more will do the same!

Pledge below:

B of R guy
02-08-2008, 07:29 PM
I have been against a third party run until recently. The Republican establishment does not want our support and I am sure they are confident they can win the White House back without it (particlarly if Clinton gets the nomination).

As a third party candidate RP will not become President in this election but with so many MAJOR problems looming I believe an opening for a third party could really take hold in the next 1-2 years. Old parties do crash, Andrew Jackson and Abraham Lincoln led new parties to the top.

The other benefit is RP could fully embrace the libertarian mantra without having to worry about the sanctimonius Republican moralizers. This would mean attracting civil libertarian Democratic voters and minorities concerned about a blatantly repressive legal regime.

To me the key is what happens to the Democrats. If Obama wins then we sit tight and watch him beat McCain and move to pick-up the pieces of the Republican party. If Clinton gets the nomination then I think McCain has a great chance to win in November.

I want to stop McCain and take our chances on growing a third party during this election cycle. If we started taking votes from McCain and Clinton the media would have to take notice.

torchbearer
02-08-2008, 07:36 PM
Like the 40% (1st place plurality) that Ross Perot had before he announced that he was dropping out--or the 19% that he finally got?

Whatever.

Have some hope and faith.

Why not try? Why are you all so defeatist and against it!? (after it becomes apparrent that he can't get the nomination--I'm not saying we are at that point--I say we will know March 4th)

You all can do what you want, but as for me and my family--we will donate thousands and thousands and call and canvass and get ballot signatures til we drop dead if he declares iNDY--and I KNOW so many hundreds and hundreds of thousands more will do the same!

Pledge below:


As former-vice chair of the libertarian party of louisiana who has been party to many third party elections, i'm not trying to shit on your parade. I'm telling you... without the BILLIONS of a Ross Perot and media coverage he BOUGHT. Third party run will be nothing more than useless waste of time.
Unless.... the economy collapses and people realise who is to blame... which probably won't happen because the propoganda news channels will broadcast Ben Bernake blaming the markets, the white house will blame the decline in beef prices in India and how more government will prevent this from happening... and the sheeple will eat it up like cocaine laden grass.

beachmaster
02-08-2008, 07:41 PM
Like the 40% (1st place plurality) that Ross Perot had before he announced that he was dropping out--or the 19% that he finally got?

Whatever.

Have some hope and faith.

Why not try? Why are you all so defeatist and against it!? (after it becomes apparrent that he can't get the nomination--I'm not saying we are at that point--I say we will know March 4th)

You all can do what you want, but as for me and my family--we will donate thousands and thousands and call and canvass and get ballot signatures til we drop dead if he declares iNDY--and I KNOW so many hundreds and hundreds of thousands more will do the same!

Pledge below:

What he said!

Besides, whatever happened to "it's not the man, it's the message"? If come March or April McCain seals it, then it's over. No more Ron Paul out stumping to thousands, occasionally getting on TV, no more Youtubes, no more debates, no more message (except some local candidates running for office... but nothing on a national level). It could be the death of our freedom message.

On the other hand, should McCain seal the GOP nomination, and Ron Paul runs 3rd/Indy, he can continue pressing the message to the American Public at large for many more months. And I think he would gather a LOT of votes. Maybe he wouldn't win by doing this. If McCain ends up with more than enough delegates to win as early as March, then we don't win anyway, and there would be absolutely NO chance of any more debates... the fundraising would dry up overnight... the message would suffer.

I'm still hoping for a GOP miracle because if we could be the salvation of the GOP, damn would that not be a powerful statement to the world, that YES we want Freedom!

So let's get the GOP nomination, and keep the 3rd/Indy option on the table. Just in case. Don't be defeatist! Vow to go to the bitter end, however, whenever!

colecrowe
02-08-2008, 07:42 PM
As former-vice chair of the libertarian party of louisiana who has been party to many third party elections, i'm not trying to shit on your parade. I'm telling you... without the BILLIONS of a Ross Perot and media coverage he BOUGHT. Third party run will be nothing more than useless waste of time.
Unless.... the economy collapses and people realise who is to blame... which probably won't happen because the propoganda news channels will broadcast Ben Bernake blaming the markets, the white house will blame the decline in beef prices in India and how more government will prevent this from happening... and the sheeple will eat it up like cocaine laden grass.

Wow...How many times will people use a lie to support their die hard wish that Ron Paul never run iNDY?! PEROT DID NOT SPEND "BILLIONS"!!! This has been addressed so many times. Look on Ross Perot's wikipedia entry for proof. I'll ask again: Why do you not want him to try to win as an iNDY if it is apparent (on March 4th) that he cannot or will in all reasonable liklihood get the Nomination!?


He must make the decision by the end of the day on March 4th. If he is doing very well, then stay GOP. If he is doing badly, declare iNDY and win:

run a couple nationwide infomercials, then 25 million dollar independence day money bomb, then get 200,000 plus precinct captains (open up all the states--that have already voted--again), then have 7 months to do it all.

Perot did it with only 65 million (100 million in todays dollars)--HE DID NOT SPEND "BILLIONS"!!! We have way more of a grassroots than he could have dreamed of! The ballots would be a cakewalk!

Everyone in my family will donate tons if he declares iNDY (or if he starts winning state after state--not gonna happen).
..

beachmaster
02-08-2008, 07:45 PM
Pledge below:

Yes, I made the pledge, to vote for him, and to give no less than $300 when/if he makes that decision. I'm sure I'll give more than that, and every spare minute of the day that I will have between that day and election day.

torchbearer
02-08-2008, 07:46 PM
ROn has 100 million?

colecrowe
02-08-2008, 07:52 PM
ROn has 100 million?

We can try to get it for him! Ask around, most people who have already given (I'm talking the 2nd and 3rd tier supporters--not people like us) are not going to give again unless he suddenly wins a ton of states or goes up like 20 points in the polls.

However, those SAME people PLUS MANY MORE will give if he declares independent (which he is polling around 11%, some even more, and that's at extremely dismal name recognition and nobody knowing anything about him even if they do know his name)--that's at least twice what he's polling at for just Republicans!

I gave 100 today--but that is it. I can't afford anymore. But I will make myself afford 500 more if he (1) wins a state or two and/or goes up a bunch in the GOP polls (probably not going to happen) or (2) he declares iNDY.

He would need to run a couple nationwide infomercials though.

I bet we could get 25 million (at least that should be our goal) if he went iNDY and we did an iNDEPENDNCE DAY money bomb

MN Patriot
02-08-2008, 07:56 PM
Ron has repeatedly said this is about the message, not the man. This revolution needs to include as many Ron Paul candidates as possible, and few of them are in the Republican Party. The GOP is in its death throws. The internet is changing things, people are waking up.

Sure, I would like to see Ron as president, but face reality: the neo-cons in the GOP don't want him there. They will not allow him to be nominated as president. If they treated him with respect, it would be a different matter. But they laugh at him and mock him, truly pathetic when he is the only true conservative.

The Libertarian Party national convention is in May, so they can achieve ballot access in all 50 states during the summer. Sometime in March or April, Ron's campaign will have to realistically reassess the chances of getting the Republican nomination. Right now everyone pretty well acknowleges McCain has it. It might go to a brokered convention, but Ron will come in last place there, like he has in most states.

If Ron were to switch to the LP, and have every congressional district with a LP candidate, it could truly be the beginning of a revolution. Make the Republican party irrelevent. Build the LP into the new party to challenge the statists in the old two parties. I can't see how staying with the Republicans will do anything, the Ron Paul revolution will be over in September. He can go back to Congress as an anonymous congressman again.

B of R guy
02-08-2008, 07:58 PM
Bump beachmaster, no third party then the movement stops and we step off the stage until???

torchbearer
02-08-2008, 07:58 PM
We can try to get it for him! Ask around, most people who have already given (I'm talking the 2nd and 3rd tier supporters--not people like us) are not going to give again unless he suddenly wins a ton of states or goes up like 20 points in the polls.

However, those SAME people PLUS MANY MORE will give if he declares independent (which he is polling around 11%, some even more)--that's at least twice what he's polling at for just Republicans!

I gave 100 today--but that is it. I can't afford anymore. But I will make myself afford 500 more if he (1) wins a state or two and/or goes up a bunch in the GOP polls (probably not going to happen) or (2) he declares iNDY.

He would need to run a couple nationwide infomercials though.

I bet we could get 25 million (at least that should be our goal) if he went iNDY and we did an iNDEPENDNCE DAY money bomb

Its possible but not probable. Especially since he will be completely ignored by the media...the entire process... and will be excluded from all the debates...
Ron is right in trying to take the GOP convention.. and don't get me wrong, I want him president no matter what... but the logistic of what you are talking about would kill a man... have you ever ran for a public office? have you ever ran for a national public office for over a two year span on the road..on a rough schedule under constant attack against your honor... My heart bleeds for Ron. I know his pain, I've been under the knife on elections... and mine were on the congressional level.
I'm just being realistic, and I understand you are being optimistic, but the time of your line of thought is not now. Its a distraction from our best possible route.
You are admitting defeat when we are in the middle of the war.
You have believed the media when they said McCain has won.... he has not.

mayavision2012
02-08-2008, 08:03 PM
Keep in mind as well that if this National Passport I.D. card is implemented (scheduled for 05/01/08?) and it hits home to alot of citizens in big cities when they cannot board planes or even enter a Federal building without one, there will be a tsunami of new support coming to the Revolution. It just could be that even a brokered convention becomes mute if the masses swell to the point of demanding early elections. Who knows? Just thought I would throw that in.
Dr. Paul may be "crazy" to his foes....but he's crazy like a fox! Something tells me, especially with the two new strong advisors on foreign affairs, we are going to see a very strong fight arise in this campaign. :)

B of R guy
02-08-2008, 08:05 PM
Torchbearer I respect your commitment but you are mistaken if you think RP has a snowballs chance to get the Republican nod. Persisting only makes sense in a pick-up the Republican wreckage in December strategy.

colecrowe
02-08-2008, 08:07 PM
thanks for the response. good info and thoughts. I'll think about it, but for now I still believe, if we are doing really bad by the end of the day on March 4th, then that is the day to make the decision, yes or no. If he doesn't want to, we can't make him. But we can let him know that we will give him 200% and support him any way we can, and make him feel like it's really possible. (I think he gets younger looking every day though :) )


Its possible but not probable. Especially since he will be completely ignored by the media...the entire process... and will be excluded from all the debates...
Ron is right in trying to take the GOP convention.. and don't get me wrong, I want him president no matter what... but the logistic of what you are talking about would kill a man... have you ever ran for a public office? have you ever ran for a national public office for over a two year span on the road..on a rough schedule under constant attack against your honor... My heart bleeds for Ron. I know his pain, I've been under the knife on elections... and mine were on the congressional level.
I'm just being realistic, and I understand you are being optimistic, but the time of your line of thought is not now. Its a distraction from our best possible route.
You are admitting defeat when we are in the middle of the war.
You have believed the media when they said McCain has won.... he has not.

MN Patriot
02-08-2008, 08:20 PM
Keep in mind as well that if this National Passport I.D. card is implemented (scheduled for 05/01/08?) and it hits home to alot of citizens in big cities when they cannot board planes or even enter a Federal building without one, there will be a tsunami of new support coming to the Revolution. It just could be that even a brokered convention becomes mute if the masses swell to the point of demanding early elections. Who knows? Just thought I would throw that in.
Dr. Paul may be "crazy" to his foes....but he's crazy like a fox! Something tells me, especially with the two new strong advisors on foreign affairs, we are going to see a very strong fight arise in this campaign. :)

Yes, I think the ID card issue will work in our favor. Or at least we should exploit it as much as possible in our favor.

"May I see your papers, komrad?"

MN Patriot
02-08-2008, 08:30 PM
Torchbearer I respect your commitment but you are mistaken if you think RP has a snowballs chance to get the Republican nod. Persisting only makes sense in a pick-up the Republican wreckage in December strategy.

If Republicans actually respected Ron and acknowledged that he is right, then I would say he has a good chance of getting the Republican nomination. But it is borderline insanity to expect the neo-cons will suddenly come to their senses.

They don't want to listen to what he says, they want to keep the welfare/warfare machine going. They will not let him get the nomination.

For now, Ron can play the game. Get more supporters. Wake people up. Get more publicity. Then sometime in March or April announce switching to the Libertarian Party and keep the revolution going until November by directly appealing to the people, not to the neo-con delegates in the GOP.

Russellk30
02-08-2008, 08:44 PM
How many non-nominated non-3rd party/independant candidates have become president?

How many times has the liberty movement forced the GOP to reduce the size of government?

Russellk30
02-08-2008, 08:50 PM
Agreed, but lets get past the convention...we've got to sweat this thing out to the last possible moment.

Thats the plan. My wife and I will be voting for Paul at the Washington State Caucus tomorrow!