Why there will NOT be a brokered convention

[spacehabitats]

I am not telling you this to discourage you. On the contrary, I hope and pray that everyone will be out canvassing and teaching the voting public about Ron Paul and his message. We should fight our hearts out for every vote. However....

There will be no brokered convention.

Mike Huckabee will stay in the race as long as Ron Paul to prevent the MSM from being in the uncomfortable position of not being able to mention the name of both candidates in a two man race (as amusing as that would be). He will also, of course be absorbing most of the "anyone-but-McCain" votes which he wins by default as the "only other candidate".

If by some miracle McCain hasn't cinched a first round nomination by the convention, Huckabee will gracefully bow out releasing his delegates to vote for the anointed one and accept his preordained position as running mate. (This scenario seemed obvious to me even before Super Tuesday and Romney's implosion, now it is inevitable.)

They will then link arms in solidarity and set out to win or lose to Obama/Clinton, as it matters not one whit to the Neo-fascist Globalists that are backing all of them.

Did I leave anything out?

If any of this discourages you, take heart.

1) Many mistakes were made in this campaign that can and will be avoided in the future.
2) Every citizen who is exposed to Ron Paul and even begins to understand his message is another potential patriot and fighter for liberty.
3) We have already won the most important victory, and this forum is evidence of that.
4) We cannot be defeated as long as we realize that this presidential campaign is ONLY THE BEGINNING!

[LukeNM]

1) Many mistakes were made in this campaign that can and will be avoided in the future.

Name some?

[Melissa]

and from everything I have read you cant "give" your delegates to anyone. There will be a vote and then if there is no clear front runner with the over 1100 needed then there will be a round 2 but Huck cant just "give" his delegates to Mccain on the 2nd round so I believe you are confused

[Redcard]

1) Many mistakes were made in this campaign that can and will be avoided in the future.

Name some?

1. Not running as many TV ads in place of mailings. Mailings do well in a congressional run, but not in a Presidential one.

2. Not returning phone calls from interested radio, television, and newspaper reporters.

3. Not getting a good PR person who could help put these stupid newsletter/Don Black/Stormfront things to rest for good.

4. Not working with a speech coach to develop the issues a bit more cohesively in order to reach the mainstream.

5. Not communicating properly with the grassroots until it was pretty late in the game.

6. Going off Republican Base walk sheets when it was clear that we would have more pull from the libertarians, the independents, and the democratic centrists/rightests than the typical republican "Hoo-AH" base.

7. Not reacting to key press events by calling attention getting press conferences when the oppurtunity to communicate something was necessary. (Luskin leaving, the newsletters, the worldwide correction around MLK day)

That's just a start.

[spacehabitats]

This issue needs more than a shoot from the hip response, and will be discussed for months if not years to come but...

Ron Paul went into this campaign underestimating the appeal of his message and certainly underestimating the power of the Internet.

As such he continued in his role as an outsider, "voice-crying-from-the-wilderness" far longer than he needed to.

He relied on a group campaigners that were either ill-prepared psychologically or technically to run a NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL campaign. (In their defense, organizing a grassroots campaign composed largely of libertarians is a little like herding cats, but it needed to be done. Money bombs and blimps are great, but nothing can replace good old-fashioned foot soldier canvassing and that kind of direction needed to come from the top MONTHS BEFORE Iowa.)

Everything has been arriving too little, too late -- the call for precinct captains, support materials, voters lists, supporters lists, advice on effective campaigning, etc.

(I could right a book on this last sentence alone. My wife ordered over $300 worth of signs, slim jims, stickers, etc. on 1-21-08 hoping to get them by Super Tuesday. We were told to expect 8-10 days for delivery. Just arrived today, after 18 days.)

Strategy: (Again, I could write a book.) Dr. Paul and his advisers grossly miscalculated about the importance of Iowa / New Hampshire. As a great statesman and teacher, he wanted to spread his message as widely as possible, and so took his campaign nationally even before the Iowa caucuses. Maybe he was still not convinced of the lasting popularity of his message and he wanted to get his message out before the bubble burst. (After toiling for so many years in obscurity and ridicule can you blame him?) But this strategy cost the campaign dearly in the long run. Many people in Iowa who might have responded to his message did not ever get to hear it. Many who might have been precinct captains, campaign volunteers, and canvassers (let alone voters) never even heard about him. I can say this for a certainty because I am one Iowan who almost missed hearing of him. And my wife, sister, brother-in-law, friends at church etc. would not have become involved. How many others were lost?

The Achilles heel of his campaign was and is the stranglehold of the MSM on his exposure to the public. Like it or not the vast majority of voters rely on the establishment journalists not only to inform them of the candidates, but to tell them which ones to pay attention to. Only a win or at least a strong would have given him the credibility that would have FORCED the MSM to give him coverage. Even negative coverage would have been better than NO coverage as we are finding out only all too well.

There is much more that I will post later.

Sorry, I didn't have more details for you. I'm a doctor trying to write this between patients. Even on a slow day that's hard.

[spacehabitats]

OK, I'm wrong. I should have said that there won't be a brokered convention in which Ron Paul or his delegates have any power.

What I am trying to communicate is that any scenario assuming anything but ABSOLUTE cooperation and coordination between Huckabee and John McCain is a pipe dream.

People are still blathering on about a Huckabee/Paul ticket for heaven's sake.

[Penners]

I coudn't agree more with Spacehabitats. The MSM blackout needed to be countered immediately with TV and newspaper advertising, press conferences, ect. While I have not done the research, will walk out on a limb and say that the mass voting public does not get their news and political information from the internet; rather, they rely on the MSM who falsely claim to be "fair and accurate" or "#1 source of news". The senior market was almost ignored (I almost cried when I looked at advertising in the AARP magazine only to find the deadlines were long past) and the majority of seniors don't even own a computer, let alone rely on it for political information. May God Bless the 22 year old woman who put together the newspaper for distribution. (Unfortunately I've been unable to convince others in North Carolina that advertising is essential. )

Targeting and continuing to emphasize the "young people" was a mistake. Sure they are our future and are an important voting sector but focusing on students is not going to reach for the bulk of the conservative republican base whom we need. Am also still not convinced that "foot soldiering" without adequate national exposure is the most effective way to go.

I will continue onward, seek to be elected as a delegate to the NC convention. I just pray it isn't too late for us as I truly believe with all of my heart that Ron is our only Hope For America.

And if in the end McCain gets the nomination and ends up running against Obama? I'll be looking for a nice Canadian man who will marry me for just the time required to gain Canadian Citizenship.... or perhaps I'll just find a nice little sanctuary in New Zealand. Maybe people aren't as stupid there.

[MN Patriot]

This issue needs more than a shoot from the hip response, and will be discussed for months if not years to come but...

Ron Paul went into this campaign underestimating the appeal of his message and certainly underestimating the power of the Internet.

As such he continued in his role as an outsider, "voice-crying-from-the-wilderness" far longer than he needed to.

He relied on a group campaigners that were either ill-prepared psychologically or technically to run a NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL campaign. (In their defense, organizing a grassroots campaign composed largely of libertarians is a little like herding cats, but it needed to be done. Money bombs and blimps are great, but nothing can replace good old-fashioned foot soldier canvassing and that kind of direction needed to come from the top MONTHS BEFORE Iowa.)

Everything has been arriving too little, too late -- the call for precinct captains, support materials, voters lists, supporters lists, advice on effective campaigning, etc.
...


That was an excellent synopsis. The lack of preparation has prevented any chance of winning a brokered convention. Do we really want one anyway? A brokered candidate isn't as strong as one who went into the convention as a winner, not that McCain will ever be a strong candidate for the Republican Party.

If Ron were to run as a Libertarian, the campaign will have all spring summer and fall to get the word out, and get the supporters organized.

[spacehabitats]

Penners, I think New Zealand would be your best bet. It isn't slated to become part of the North American Union (for awhile anyway ;)).