Iowa Caucus good news for Paul

[Sean]

I just read on National Review that the actual Iowa Caucus is usually only has around 50k people participate. Can anyone verify this? If so then the Straw poll might give us an accurate picture of where Paul is in the the actual Caucus. This could be great news with the apathetic support others have right now.

"Who's Going to 'Stand Up' in December? [John Podhoretz]

It's possible that all this jockeying that may move the Iowa caucuses into December will have the effect of killing off the importance of Iowa.

Think about it: A week before Christmas, or a week after, how many Iowans are going to be able to participate in the events in question? They'll be traveling away from home, or hosting relatives, or having family and church events, caroling parties, and the like. The notion of moving the caucuses into December is all but lunatic. Nobody in America, even in Iowa, is ready to give a week's attention to the caucuses with Christmas and New Year's so close. That includes caucus organizers and the army of volunteers who do the work necessary to wrangle people to the caucus rooms to"stand up" for their preferred candidate.

I've never seen an authoritative count of the people who actually participate in the Iowa caucuses (the number floats somewhere around 50,000). It will be clear to the reporters who have been covering these things for years if attendance is sparse. They will be hard-pressed to make as big a deal out of the Iowa results if they have to report nobody showed up. "

[Bradley in DC]

The estimates I've seen were closer to 41,000 or so (which, off the top of my head, is similar to what they had eight years ago in the last straw poll).

[Sean]

Bradley are you saying the actual caucus draws the same as the the straw poll? This comment on NRO seems to say the same thing. That the actual Caucus has very few people actually involved and that this move to December might decrease turnout even more. The fewer people going the better for Ron Paul since he should have more motivated followers. NRO might also be trying to float the idea that a victory in the Caucus is no big deal anymore because someone like Paul can take it.

[Thom1776]

In the last three election cycles in which Republicans had competitive fights for the nomination, the eventual nominee finished among the top three in the straw poll.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070805/OPINION01/708050328/1035/OPINION

[Sean]

Thom1776 I am not talking about the Straw Poll turnout. I am wanting to know about the average turnout for the actual Caucus.

[Bradley in DC]

Bradley are you saying the actual caucus draws the same as the the straw poll?

:eek: Sorry, no, my mistake, I was thinking straw poll.

[Thom1776]

Look to the LEFT of the screen.

[Nefertiti]

The last time there was actually a real contest among Republicans was in 2000, when the turnout was 86k, about 7 percent of the eligible voters. This means the MAXIMUM minimum one would need to win would be about 43k, possibly even less depending on the number of candidates still in the race. One thing that RP has going for him is the enthusiasm and motivation of his supporters. There's a big difference in my opinion between picking up the phone and talking to a pollster and getting to a caucus in the dead of winter and casting a public vote.

[Thom1776]

Bush won with 41% in 2000.


George W. Bush
35,948---41%

Steve Forbes
26,744---31%

Alan Keyes
12,496---14%

Gary Bauer
7,487---9%

John McCain
4,093---5%

Orrin Hatch
898---1%

TOTAL 87,666

[stevedasbach]

At the 1999 straw poll, about 23,000 votes were cast. Bush won with over 7,000 votes.

[Shink]

Bradley are you saying the actual caucus draws the same as the the straw poll? This comment on NRO seems to say the same thing. That the actual Caucus has very few people actually involved and that this move to December might decrease turnout even more. The fewer people going the better for Ron Paul since he should have more motivated followers. NRO might also be trying to float the idea that a victory in the Caucus is no big deal anymore because someone like Paul can take it.

First of all, does anyone else feel a similarity between this and the passing of the Federal Reserve Act? (It was on or near Christmas Eve, if I recall)

Secondly, isn't there a chance that the 'frontrunner' campaigns will have some paid-off voters, just enough to ensure a win? I don't know, it just seems like these rushed caucuses are intended to hurt the campaign, not help.

[Sean]

Look to the LEFT of the screen.

Thanks I often overlook the obvious.

[mtmedlin]

Only problem is that during a caucus the "party leaders" get in there and make promises, twist arms and "do what is necessary" to get their guy elected. There are more behind the door deals going on then anything you will see in washington. We must win over some party leadership to have a chance. remember in the Democrat caucus is when out of the blue John Kerry won.

[Hurricane Bruiser]

The leadership first has to see that there is support before they will jump on board. They want to back a winning candidate. That is why getting name recognition up and people to vote in the straw polls is important.

[freelance]

First of all, does anyone else feel a similarity between this and the passing of the Federal Reserve Act? (It was on or near Christmas Eve, if I recall)

Funny you should mention that with the possibility of the caucuses getting moved to the Christmas season.

[Bro.Butch]

Only problem is that during a caucus the "party leaders" get in there and make promises, twist arms and "do what is necessary" to get their guy elected. There are more behind the door deals going on then anything you will see in washington. We must win over some party leadership to have a chance. remember in the Democrat caucus is when out of the blue John Kerry won.


You are correct, that is to move their people from the caucus location to the next level area caucus leading eventually to the national convention. It's a drawn out process. However, things have changed, to accommandate MSM, there is a head count made at the beginning of the caucus (people actually say who they support and it is written down) and the results are sent to a central location in Des Moines (I think). See this is the most open of all political activity in American. RP supporters in every caucus in Iowa can record this headcount and report into the RP HQ with the numbers and there will be NO WAY for RP to be cheated. We will not only have RP numbers but all competition numbers also ! RP just has to locate his supporters all over the state and coordinate this effort to cellphone in the headcount from all over the state to make sure it jives with the official headcount before it is announced to the world.

From the numbers listed. We need from 40-50,000 motivated Iowan RP supporters and we can SHOCK the world this winter !!!

Let's be honest, Ron hasn't spent enough time campaigning in Iowa to be competitive in tomorrows straw poll. He has 5 months to be competitive when it really matters ! Ron is polling ninth in Iowa,

IF RON FINISHES BETTER THAN NINTH HE & WE NEED TO DECLARE VICTORY !!!

That's how this game is played. You need to EXCEED EXPECTATIONS !!!

We need to keep the Iowa phone & mail activities going until the real caucus happens. The same type efforts need to start for NH, SC, NV & FL. Dr. Paul needs to spend a lot more time in Iowa, NH, SC, NV & FL. These are the battleground states. We outside these states need to up our grassroot efforts to get RP's name out and hopefully have the groundwork in so if he comes out of the early states still in it he has a chance !

Tomorrow won't be a big day for us, but as stated anything better than what we are polling, we must declare VICTORY ! Then get to work on the real campaign.

Funds are critical at this time with so much going out in this last minute effort in Iowa, please try to send in something EACH PAYDAY. www.RonPaul2008.com\donate
THX...

[Sean]

I think it would be a good idea for the campaign to put together a online database of people who will say they will vote for Ron Paul in the Iowa Caucus. It would be so awesome to see that database grow to 50k by the time of election night. Organize them city by city and street by street so they can support each other to vote when the time comes. I always thought a good campaign would try to get one strong supporter on every residential block. That supporter can then recruit his/her neighbors and make sure each of them votes on election day. A database like this would scare the hell out of other campaigns and the MSM. No longer could they say he has 1% support when he has half the caucus committed. This would be easiest to do in Iowa because of its small size.

[Dave]

Funny you should mention that with the possibility of the caucuses getting moved to the Christmas season.

I don't care if they have them during a blizzard on Christmas day! Ron Paul supporters are more active and faithful than everyone else and will show up no matter what. The holidays, bad weather, etc. will just serve to keep everyone else's supporters at home. It's all good...

[freelance]

Ron Paul supporters are more active and faithful than everyone else and will show up no matter what. The holidays, bad weather, etc. will just serve to keep everyone else's supporters at home. It's all good...

Nothing could help us more than a move to before Christmas.