Naraku
02-07-2008, 04:33 PM
For those who still doubt our chances and doubt the possibility of a brokered convention consider these numbers:
1186 delegates pledged so far
1380 were in the states that just passed
121 of those delegates have not been pledged, the rest are state party delegates
McCain still needs 476 delegates
There are 1194 delegates up for grabs still.
145 are state party delegates.
Of those up for grabs, 1049 will be pledged by vote.
Consider the upcoming states:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=114583
McCain would need about 52% of those delegates to win without considering state party delegates and those delegates in states already gone. The setup in those states means he most likely will not carry 52%, but instead come short.
Of those left over all he would need 45% of the pledge delegates left or 40% of all delegates left.
If Huckabee can win Virginia, a winner-take-all state, and Paul can win DC then it takes out 76 delegates. This means McCain would have to get 56% of the other pledged delegates from here on out, 49% of all pledged delegates left, or 42.6% of all delegates left.
If Huckabee can win Kansas, get over 50% in Louisiana, win Maryland and Wisconsin and Paul can win Puerto Rico it ends up with at least 172 more delegates out and away from McCain. This means McCain has to win 64% of those delegates left in states from now on in order to win, 59% of delegates left to be pledged overall, or 50% of those delegates left overall. With many states divided into districts this could keep McCain from getting the majority needed to win and ultimately mean a brokered convention.
There's also a way to insure our representation in the RNC as a nominee, if I understand correctly territories and DC are included in their rules for nominee qualification. If we can win the territories and DC, it could allow us to be nominated. However, it could be possible to split a deal with Romney or Huckabee delegates, to get them to pledge for Paul in order to reach the five state minimum. In exchange our people would give them a majority where it's needed for them to qualify.
Then it will be voted on in the first round, but then be released for the next rounds in a brokered convention.
Also we could reach to Romney and Huckabee's delegates to try and get them to agree with ours to suspend the rules or change the rules. If a majority can be gained with us, Romney, and Huckabee, it would be possible to change the rules, ultimately to favor us.
To give a better idea consider those delegates which so far have been pledged for someone other than McCain.
At least 483 delegates are pledged for someone other than McCain so far. If we go by the above idea for the next states being won it goes up to 731 delegates pledged for someone other than McCain at least. That leaves 460 delegates left to acquire. This means 69% of those delegates left over from then on have to be won by some one other than McCain in order to block him from the nomination.
In a best scenario those states mention above where it's district-by-district at least a Georgia-style win for Huckabee would be good as it would mean 42 delegates and mean also that only two-third of those left would need to go to Huckabee excluding state party delegates and those votes left.
Of those left 381 delegates left are in the districts. If a winner-take all system is used and it follows like Georgia it means 264 delegates. That puts 1037 out there against McCain, who would have 852 if all other delegates mentioned in those states went to him. There would then be 154 delegates of those states after today mind you, needed to block McCain. There are 224 at-large and bonus delegates left after that, excluding those in states already passed. This means winning 69% of those delegates left. If these other states are winner-take-all at-large/bonus then Mississippi, North Carolina, Nebraska, Kentucky, Idaho, and South Dakota are the states needed to block McCain.
If those states can be won by Huckabee, Paul, or Romney, unlikely since his campaign is suspended, then McCain's nomination will be blocked no matter what happens after that.
Then it comes down to a brokered convention.
1186 delegates pledged so far
1380 were in the states that just passed
121 of those delegates have not been pledged, the rest are state party delegates
McCain still needs 476 delegates
There are 1194 delegates up for grabs still.
145 are state party delegates.
Of those up for grabs, 1049 will be pledged by vote.
Consider the upcoming states:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=114583
McCain would need about 52% of those delegates to win without considering state party delegates and those delegates in states already gone. The setup in those states means he most likely will not carry 52%, but instead come short.
Of those left over all he would need 45% of the pledge delegates left or 40% of all delegates left.
If Huckabee can win Virginia, a winner-take-all state, and Paul can win DC then it takes out 76 delegates. This means McCain would have to get 56% of the other pledged delegates from here on out, 49% of all pledged delegates left, or 42.6% of all delegates left.
If Huckabee can win Kansas, get over 50% in Louisiana, win Maryland and Wisconsin and Paul can win Puerto Rico it ends up with at least 172 more delegates out and away from McCain. This means McCain has to win 64% of those delegates left in states from now on in order to win, 59% of delegates left to be pledged overall, or 50% of those delegates left overall. With many states divided into districts this could keep McCain from getting the majority needed to win and ultimately mean a brokered convention.
There's also a way to insure our representation in the RNC as a nominee, if I understand correctly territories and DC are included in their rules for nominee qualification. If we can win the territories and DC, it could allow us to be nominated. However, it could be possible to split a deal with Romney or Huckabee delegates, to get them to pledge for Paul in order to reach the five state minimum. In exchange our people would give them a majority where it's needed for them to qualify.
Then it will be voted on in the first round, but then be released for the next rounds in a brokered convention.
Also we could reach to Romney and Huckabee's delegates to try and get them to agree with ours to suspend the rules or change the rules. If a majority can be gained with us, Romney, and Huckabee, it would be possible to change the rules, ultimately to favor us.
To give a better idea consider those delegates which so far have been pledged for someone other than McCain.
At least 483 delegates are pledged for someone other than McCain so far. If we go by the above idea for the next states being won it goes up to 731 delegates pledged for someone other than McCain at least. That leaves 460 delegates left to acquire. This means 69% of those delegates left over from then on have to be won by some one other than McCain in order to block him from the nomination.
In a best scenario those states mention above where it's district-by-district at least a Georgia-style win for Huckabee would be good as it would mean 42 delegates and mean also that only two-third of those left would need to go to Huckabee excluding state party delegates and those votes left.
Of those left 381 delegates left are in the districts. If a winner-take all system is used and it follows like Georgia it means 264 delegates. That puts 1037 out there against McCain, who would have 852 if all other delegates mentioned in those states went to him. There would then be 154 delegates of those states after today mind you, needed to block McCain. There are 224 at-large and bonus delegates left after that, excluding those in states already passed. This means winning 69% of those delegates left. If these other states are winner-take-all at-large/bonus then Mississippi, North Carolina, Nebraska, Kentucky, Idaho, and South Dakota are the states needed to block McCain.
If those states can be won by Huckabee, Paul, or Romney, unlikely since his campaign is suspended, then McCain's nomination will be blocked no matter what happens after that.
Then it comes down to a brokered convention.