Voter Turnout for Primaries?

[DavyDuke17]

Since I'm just 19 years old and this is going to be my first time really voting in an election, I was wondering what the turnout is for primaries. I would think that it is pretty abysmal, and even worse this year because most Republicans seem to be disillusioned by their party.

When I see the gallup and other polls of 1,000 or so random people, in which Giuliani, Romney, and McCain dominate I can't help to wonder how many of these people are actually going to vote in the primaries. When I look around the internet, I can't find any significant movement or websites (like this one) devoted to organize supporters for these top tier candidates. It seems that right now the only thing they have is name recognition, and is name recognition actually going to bring people to the polls come primaries? On the other hand, I know that every one of the rabid Paul supporters is going to be voting.

When I think about that I get very optimistic, and we still have time to keep spreading the word.

[enter`name`here]

I've thought the same thing. Paul's support is frequently dismissed as 'merely' a minority of dedicated fanatics, but in a country where those who actually vote are in the minority, I would think that this would be a great strength.

[cujothekitten]

It's VERY low. The last presidential primaries only had a 7.2% turnout.

Republican turnout was 6.6%
Democratic turnout was 11.4%
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-03-09-voter-turnout_x.htm

[burnice]

It's VERY low. The last presidential primaries only had a 7.2% turnout.

Republican turnout was 6.6%
Democratic turnout was 11.4%
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-03-09-voter-turnout_x.htm

I suppose that implies if we can just get a few hundred thousand that don't normally vote in primaries to vote for our guy, we might really make a difference.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

ok. What's the total population of 6.6% of Iowan Republicans? It'll be lower this year.

[cujothekitten]

I suppose that implies if we can just get a few hundred thousand that don't normally vote in primaries to vote for our guy, we might really make a difference.

I'd say that's a big YES. It's just a few thousand in each state.

[kylejack]

It's VERY low. The last presidential primaries only had a 7.2% turnout.

Republican turnout was 6.6%
Democratic turnout was 11.4%
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-03-09-voter-turnout_x.htm

It should be closer to the 11.4% one this time. Republicans will care more when the presidential primary is actually at issue. Bush was their guy last time.

[winston_blade]

ok. What's the total population of 6.6% of Iowan Republicans? It'll be lower this year.

I think it will be higher actually. Last time there wasn't a presidential election at stake. That is the race that really gets people to the polls. I expect it to be double what last year's turnout was.

[DavyDuke17]

I would imagine that in states like Iowa and New Hampshire the percentage is higher since the spotlight is on them and it usually seems that they dictate how the race will go. But still, if we spread the word to our family and friends and encourage them to do the same I think we can definitely get more people excited about Ron Paul than the number of people who only know McCain and Giuliani because of name recognition and actually go to vote. I've looked around the internet, and I seriously cannot find a base of supporters for them that can come close to ours.

Also, the later primaries probably have an even lower turnout than 6.6% so even if things don't go great in Iowa stay engaged and we can win the larger states that are even more apathetic.

[angelatc]

I do think it's important to push the message about how important it actually is to vote in the primaries. Get people acclimated to the idea that they have to step away from the PC for an hour or so that day.

I"ve been guilty of not voting in the primaries, because I typically didn't care which generic candidate won.

This time it's different.

[Bradley in DC]

When comparing projections for this year against the last presidential primary in 2004, one has to remember that that race was uncontested last time. A better analysis would be to look at the last few contested races (2000, 1996, 1992) as well as the 2002 primary for trendlines. That trendline would give us a good projection for 2008. For Iowa, my rough guesstimate is that we are looking at probably around 120,000 voters in the Republican caucus.

[TheDuke]

This is the great thing about elections, especially primaries (for us :) ), NOBODY cares... except the groups that really have a specific goal/vision, and I think the Ron Paul group will be represented very well.

A shame that I can only vote in the general election, as I live abroad.

[Dave]

In the open race of 2000, there were about 600,000 registered reps and 600,000 dems in Iowa. The reps turned out about 15% on caucus night and the dems got about 10%.

Since we're coming off an incumbent rep in 2008, I would expect the dems to turn out more than the reps this time.

[Bradley in DC]

Republicans abroad can vote in the primaries.

One, you may still have a legal "US address" (what was the address when you filed your IRS tax return).

Two, while Republicans abroad don't select delegates to the convention:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republicans_Abroad

Republicans Abroad is an organisation of U.S. Republicans living outside of the United States. Unlike Democrats Abroad, Republicans Abroad is not viewed as a state committee by the Republican National Committee[1]. As a consequence of this structure, Republicans Abroad is free to raise as much money as it can from foreign lobbyists and governments and is not required to report it to anyone, whereas Democrats Abroad is a state committee [2]can only raise money in accordance with the McCain Feingold law and has strict reporting requirements.[3] In return for having this unlimited fundraising capability, American Republicans living abroad are not represented at the Republican National Convention (because they are not considered a 'state') whereas American Democrats abroad are represented at their convention.[4]

(I for one have voted absent ballot from three foreign countries.)

[TheDuke]

Thank you for this information, I'll look into it tomorrow.

Here in Belgium there are a lot of people interested in the views of Ron Paul (and I didn't even have to inform them myself), including the Belgians.