bobbyw24
02-07-2008, 06:22 AM
http://www.nolanchart.com/article2499.html
After Super Tuesday, Ron Paul Should Consider a Plan-B
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Money and Support from the grass roots aren't getting it done for one presidential candidate.
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by DigitalBob
(Libertarian)
Tracking the Ron Paul bid for over a year, I had expected better results last night. The CNN ticker this morning has Ron Paul finishing second in Montana, and third in Utah, North Dakota, Alaska, and Minnesota. I know I'm going to get a few angry emails that I don't understand that the popular vote doesn't translate into final delegate count. 9 of the 21 states are winner-take-all. Fourth place finishes get as many delegates as second place--zero.
A few delegates were won along the way. One article in the Herald-Dispatch reports a deal was struck for the Paul people to support Huckabee so they could get three of the 18 West Virginia delegates to the national convention, if Huckabee wins. So at least in West Virginia, Ron Paul comes in second with delegate count, even though CNN is showing his popular vote to be zero percent.
But this is part of the political calculation that will be needed by the campaign to salvage some victory, considering all the money and time spent. It will have to look at the true number of delegates garnered on a state-by-stage basis. The number of delegates reported by the news media are estimates, mostly based on a winner-take-call mentality. The campaign's claim of a second place victory in Maine last weekend meant that Paul got some of those 18 delegates that the news media usually give to Romney.
Even with aberrations in the delegate projections, it looks like McCain gets over half, Romney about a third, and Huckabee with a surprising sixth. With McCain's projected delegate count at over 600, he's over half way to the 1,191 needed to get the nomination.
For those who passionately believe in smaller government, greater personal freedom, and an end to war in Iraq, supporting any of the other three candidates isn't palatable. While Romney and Huckabee continue to cannibalize each other's base, it looks like McCain will waltz into the convention with the most delegates, if not a lock on the nomination.
From the beginning, Ron Paul said that this race is not about him, but the message. Unless his campaign can do something quickly to change these trends, the message will finish fourth, along with the candidate.
With very few delegates to date, he doesn't have the leverage to negotiate with Romney or Huckabee. He does have a few million dollars in the bank, which may be more than the three amigos combined. If he stays in, and Huckabee drops out, which doesn't seem likely as long as the governor has some money to continue, there will be less competition for the libertarian message. Discounting a possible run in another party, it's probably the best Paul can hope for.
After Super Tuesday, Ron Paul Should Consider a Plan-B
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Money and Support from the grass roots aren't getting it done for one presidential candidate.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by DigitalBob
(Libertarian)
Tracking the Ron Paul bid for over a year, I had expected better results last night. The CNN ticker this morning has Ron Paul finishing second in Montana, and third in Utah, North Dakota, Alaska, and Minnesota. I know I'm going to get a few angry emails that I don't understand that the popular vote doesn't translate into final delegate count. 9 of the 21 states are winner-take-all. Fourth place finishes get as many delegates as second place--zero.
A few delegates were won along the way. One article in the Herald-Dispatch reports a deal was struck for the Paul people to support Huckabee so they could get three of the 18 West Virginia delegates to the national convention, if Huckabee wins. So at least in West Virginia, Ron Paul comes in second with delegate count, even though CNN is showing his popular vote to be zero percent.
But this is part of the political calculation that will be needed by the campaign to salvage some victory, considering all the money and time spent. It will have to look at the true number of delegates garnered on a state-by-stage basis. The number of delegates reported by the news media are estimates, mostly based on a winner-take-call mentality. The campaign's claim of a second place victory in Maine last weekend meant that Paul got some of those 18 delegates that the news media usually give to Romney.
Even with aberrations in the delegate projections, it looks like McCain gets over half, Romney about a third, and Huckabee with a surprising sixth. With McCain's projected delegate count at over 600, he's over half way to the 1,191 needed to get the nomination.
For those who passionately believe in smaller government, greater personal freedom, and an end to war in Iraq, supporting any of the other three candidates isn't palatable. While Romney and Huckabee continue to cannibalize each other's base, it looks like McCain will waltz into the convention with the most delegates, if not a lock on the nomination.
From the beginning, Ron Paul said that this race is not about him, but the message. Unless his campaign can do something quickly to change these trends, the message will finish fourth, along with the candidate.
With very few delegates to date, he doesn't have the leverage to negotiate with Romney or Huckabee. He does have a few million dollars in the bank, which may be more than the three amigos combined. If he stays in, and Huckabee drops out, which doesn't seem likely as long as the governor has some money to continue, there will be less competition for the libertarian message. Discounting a possible run in another party, it's probably the best Paul can hope for.