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View Full Version : A Quick Reality Check - Why Are We Listening to the Media? **Must Read**




Austin
02-07-2008, 05:58 AM
There are many sunshine patriots here on the board that seem to think that we no longer have a shot at the nomination. In this post, I am going to spill the beans on why we still have a shot at the nomination, even more so that I had previously thought. For starters, I have to remind you all to stop listening to the media! We know how biased they are when it comes to Dr. Paul, so what makes you think that there delegate estimates will be accurate?! They are just that, estimates. Here is what CNN wants you to believe:


Total Delegates
McCain
680

Romney
270

Huckabee
176

Paul
16

Upon further research, it is rather easy to come the conclusion that CNN has made some bold predictions for the allocation of completely and utterly unpledged delegates. Here is a quick breakdown of how CNN believes the many uncommitted delegates will vote in September...

Unbound
Bound & Unbound
Bound for 1 Ballot
Bound for 2 Ballots
Other / 3 Ballots



Alabama
Huckabee: 20
McCain: 16

Alaska
Romney: 12
Huckabee: 6
Paul: 5
McCain: 3

Arizona
McCain: 53 (all)

Arkansas
Huckabee: 29
McCain: 1
Romney: 1

California
McCain: 116
Romney: 3

Colorado
Romney: 22

Connecticut
McCain: 27

Delaware:
McCain: 18

Florida
McCain: 57

Georgia
Huckabee: 45
McCain: 3

Illinois
McCain: 55
Romney: 3

Iowa
Huckabee: 17
Romney: 12
McCain: 3
Paul: 2

Maine
Romney: 19
McCain: 1

Massachusetts
Romney: 23
McCain: 18

Michigan
Romney: 24
McCain: 5
Huckabee: 1

Minnesota
Romney: 38

Missouri
McCain: 58

Montanna
Romney: 25

Nevada
Romney: 18
Paul: 4
McCain: 4
Huckabee: 2

New Hampshire
McCain: 7
Romney: 4
Huckabee: 1

New Jersey
McCain: 52

New York
McCain: 101

North Dakota
Romney: 8
McCain: 6
Huckabee: 5
Paul: 5

Oklahoma
McCain: 32
Huckabee: 6

South Carolina
McCain: 19
Huckabee: 5

Tennessee
Huckabee: 21
McCain: 15
Romney: 9

Utah
Romney: 36

West Virgina**
Huckabee: 18
Romney: 1

Wyoming
Romney: 9 (14 total)


The main thing to take note of are the states highlighted in red, because CNN's delegate appropriation methods are based on absolutely nothing, pure guesses! Most of those states conventions haven't even occurred yet, and based on what we know when it comes to Ron Paul supporters, it is likely that we will do much better when it comes to delegates. One other, albeit unlikely, situation to consider is the rule that if 51% of the delegates at the RNC agree to something, they can effectively throw any rule out, including the binding ones. That means, if we get enough delegates to the national convention, even those bound, we can throw out the binding rules and get the nomination. Now, as I stated before, the chances of this happening aren't too great, but really, we would need this number to win the nomination anyhow, so it could happen!

In short, stop relying on the media to tell you how the election is going! They been biased and unfair to the point that it is not only unquestionably evident, but blatant as well. Look at the fact.

We are still in this race, and I'm not backing down anytime soon. For the others, the sunshine patriots, you can take your negativity and yourselves along with it, and leave the forum.

I, for one, will be in this to the very end. We are going to get this nomination and we are going to get the White House!

qwerty
02-07-2008, 06:53 AM
Bump!

liberteebell
02-07-2008, 06:59 AM
There are many sunshine patriots here on the board that seem to think that we no longer have a shot at the nomination. In this post, I am going to spill the beans on why we still have a shot at the nomination, even more so that I had previously thought. For starters, I have to remind you all to stop listening to the media! We know how biased they are when it comes to Dr. Paul, so what makes you think that there delegate estimates will be accurate?! They are just that, estimates. Here is what CNN wants you to believe:



Upon further research, it is rather easy to come the conclusion that CNN has made some bold predictions for the allocation of completely and utterly unpledged delegates. Here is a quick breakdown of how CNN believes the many uncommitted delegates will vote in September...

Unbound
Bound & Unbound
Bound for 1 Ballot
Bound for 2 Ballots
Other / 3 Ballots



The main thing to take note of are the states highlighted in red, because CNN's delegate appropriation methods are based on absolutely nothing, pure guesses! Most of those states conventions haven't even occurred yet, and based on what we know when it comes to Ron Paul supporters, it is likely that we will do much better when it comes to delegates. One other, albeit unlikely, situation to consider is the rule that if 51% of the delegates at the RNC agree to something, they can effectively throw any rule out, including the binding ones. That means, if we get enough delegates to the national convention, even those bound, we can throw out the binding rules and get the nomination. Now, as I stated before, the chances of this happening aren't too great, but really, we would need this number to win the nomination anyhow, so it could happen!

In short, stop relying on the media to tell you how the election is going! They been biased and unfair to the point that it is not only unquestionably evident, but blatant as well. Look at the fact.

We are still in this race, and I'm not backing down anytime soon. For the others, the sunshine patriots, you can take your negativity and yourselves along with it, and leave the forum.

I, for one, will be in this to the very end. We are going to get this nomination and we are going to get the White House!


Thank you for this analysis! And I appreciate your optimism. I'm with you!

No1ButPaul08
02-07-2008, 06:59 AM
Note that most of the red states are caucus romney states. These delegate counts are not delusional, maybe a little off. Are they going to magically not going to vote for John McCain when they are bound by law to do so. Maybe a couple of renegade RP delegates. We can't just hope delegates change. WE MUST STOP JOHN McCAIN.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=114659

I honestly believe this is our only chance

kaleidoscope eyes
02-07-2008, 07:06 AM
bump

qwerty
02-07-2008, 07:07 AM
Note that most of the red states are caucus romney states. These delegate counts are not delusional, maybe a little off. Are they going to magically not going to vote for John McCain when they are bound by law to do so. Maybe a couple of renegade RP delegates. We can't just hope delegates change. WE MUST STOP JOHN McCAIN.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=114659

I honestly believe this is our only chance


I TRUST THE CAMPAIGN!

No1ButPaul08
02-07-2008, 07:11 AM
I TRUST THE CAMPAIGN!

Please point out where i am wrong

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=114659

qwerty
02-07-2008, 07:14 AM
Please point out where i am wrong

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=114659

MY POINT IS THAT, I TRUST THE CAMPAIGN AND WILL STAND BEHIND THEIR DECICIONS, NOT BEHIND SOME INTERNET GUY...

THIS CAMPAIGN IS NOT HERE FOR THE FIRST TIME, THEY HAVE HAD THE SAME PLAN FROM THE BEGINNING AND IT THINK THEY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING, SO I STAND BEHIND THEM.

IF YOU THINK YOUR IDEA IS THE BEST, YOU SHOULD CONTACT THE CAMPAIGN WITH IT, NOT SPREAD IT AROUND HERE ANONYMOUSLY...

qwerty
02-07-2008, 07:24 AM
Bump!

wv@SC
02-07-2008, 07:33 AM
Thanks for the breakdown. For myself, I think we should push on to the RNC. If that doesn't work, THEN talk about an indy run or getting RP into Congress again.

I'm in it to the end, and I'm not going to vote R or D in November if RP doesn't get nominated: I'm writing him in!

This really has been an education for me, hopefully tools for the future.

qwerty
02-07-2008, 07:43 AM
bump!

:cool:

Bradley in DC
02-07-2008, 08:40 AM
Good level of analysis, thanks. I've not double-checked any of it, but the approach to understanding the process is right.

One part is wrong though:


One other, albeit unlikely, situation to consider is the rule that if 51% of the delegates at the RNC agree to something, they can effectively throw any rule out, including the binding ones. That means, if we get enough delegates to the national convention, even those bound, we can throw out the binding rules and get the nomination. Now, as I stated before, the chances of this happening aren't too great, but really, we would need this number to win the nomination anyhow, so it could happen!

The rules "binding" delegates is set by state election law, not RNC by-laws. In short, the delegates can't vote at the RNC convention to change the state election laws, no.

Austin
02-07-2008, 12:01 PM
One part is wrong though:

The rules "binding" delegates is set by state election law, not RNC by-laws. In short, the delegates can't vote at the RNC convention to change the state election laws, no.
How does the government have a hand in the Republican Party.. I am almost sure it is just the opposite of what you've said.. Can your provide a confirmation? I mean, I've read that they are bound until the party releases them, and as such, wouldn't the power of the delegation be able to release themselves, given a majority?

Austin
02-07-2008, 12:09 PM
Bump.

Bradley in DC
02-07-2008, 12:18 PM
How does the government have a hand in the Republican Party.. I am almost sure it is just the opposite of what you've said.. Can your provide a confirmation? I mean, I've read that they are bound until the party releases them, and as such, wouldn't the power of the delegation be able to release themselves, given a majority?

The states, not the parties (except in SC), run their elections. They have laws governing these elections. The rules binding delegates are state election law. The delegates at the national convention cannot release themselves, no.

The states themselves also decide HOW to choose the delegates allocated to them by the RNC rules. Most of the states then allow the candidate to which they are bound to release them. The "party" has no such authority.

Austin
02-07-2008, 12:20 PM
The states, not the parties (except in SC), run their elections. They have laws governing these elections. The rules binding delegates are state election law. The delegates at the national convention cannot release themselves, no.

The states themselves also decide HOW to choose the delegates allocated to them by the RNC rules. Most of the states then allow the candidate to which they are bound to release them. The "party" has no such authority.
Hmm. I hope you don't feel that I'm calling you out, because I am inclined to believe you. I would still like some proof, if that is possible...

No worries, it's not exactly urgent to me anyhow.

Bradley in DC
02-07-2008, 12:22 PM
THIS CAMPAIGN IS NOT HERE FOR THE FIRST TIME, THEY HAVE HAD THE SAME PLAN FROM THE BEGINNING AND IT THINK THEY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING, SO I STAND BEHIND THEM.

Exactly whom do you think knows what they're doing? The only campaigns Kent Snyder and Joe Becker have been involved were the mismanaged 1988 LP run by Dr. Paul (yes, everyone familiar with it knows it was horribly mismanaged). There isn't a one there before Messrs. Tate and Elam came on board who could have one Dr. Paul a primary if he had been the only candidate on the ballot.

They were hired to run an educational campaign (though they did that poorly) and know nothing about winning elections. The results are obvious and predictable (as I explained four months ago).

Austin
02-07-2008, 02:43 PM
Bump. Maybe I need a better thread title..

BreakYourChains
02-07-2008, 02:47 PM
Thanks for the breakdown. For myself, I think we should push on to the RNC. If that doesn't work, THEN talk about an indy run or getting RP into Congress again.

I'm in it to the end, and I'm not going to vote R or D in November if RP doesn't get nominated: I'm writing him in!

This really has been an education for me, hopefully tools for the future.

Agreed! I am in!

affa
02-07-2008, 02:51 PM
MY POINT IS THAT, I TRUST THE CAMPAIGN AND WILL STAND BEHIND THEIR DECICIONS, NOT BEHIND SOME INTERNET GUY...



Stop yelling.
Stop bolding.
Stop oversizing.

How old are you?

(please note i stand by the campaign too - but your posts are getting super obnoxious)

JordanQ72
02-07-2008, 03:02 PM
Great, so McCain's total is off by at most 60. That's fantastic, where does that get us again? He still has at least 675 pledged delegates.