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View Full Version : Iowa Straw Poll Will Be Make-or-Break for Tommy Thompson




Bradley in DC
08-09-2007, 02:37 AM
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/08/iowa_straw_poll_will_be_makeor.html

By Marie Horrigan | 3:30 PM; Aug. 08, 2007 |

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson has three days to save his struggling campaign for the Republican nomination for president. The former secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services is betting everything on Saturday’s straw poll in Ames, Iowa, one of the first chances for GOP candidates, and the public, to gauge the Republican field.

The contest can be a good — but not infallible — indicator of the Republican Party’s leading candidate for the full-fledged Iowa Caucus. The last two times there was an open race without a GOP presidential incumbent, the winners of the straw poll (Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000) went on to win the Iowa Caucus and became their party’s nominee. However, in 1988, then-Vice President George H.W. Bush placed third in the 1987 “Cavalcade of Stars” behind Pat Robertson and Dole, and placed third again in the state caucus (this time behind Dole and then Robertson). Bush went on to win the party’s nomination despite his early stumble, demonstrating the straw poll’s less-than-perfect track record.

Thompson, who trails the other GOP contenders in both the polls and fundraising, has set the Iowa straw poll as a decision-point of sorts. His campaign argues that a win or even second place finish on Saturday could catapult Thompson’s candidacy into the upper tier of GOP hopefuls, drawing media attention that would allow him to bolster his coffers and continue in the race. If he fails to make it into the top two, however, Thompson has said he likely will drop from the field.

Given the importance of the race for Thompson, his campaign has focused intently on Iowa for months. Thompson visited 110 Iowa communities throughout July, and during the next two days campaign staff and volunteers are hitting the streets to bring in last-minute undecided voters who might join Thompson’s camp.

Thompson goes into the straw poll with these pros and cons:

• He is a popular four-term governor of Wisconsin, a border state to Iowa, who focused nearly his entire presidential campaign in the state.

• Two of the top GOP candidates have decided not to participate in Saturday’s poll. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain both have written off the contest and will not appear at the candidate forum, although their names are on the ballot.

• Results from a Washington Post-ABC News poll released over the weekend indicated Thompson’s do-or-die Iowa campaign does not seem to be paying off. While he placed fourth in the poll among likely straw poll voters who were asked which candidate has campaigned the hardest in the state, he placed seventh overall (McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee were tied for fourth) while Fred Thompson, an as-yet-unofficial candidate, placed third behind Romney and Giuliani.

• Thompson is trailing in the money race. As of July 1, Thompson had raised $890,000 vs. $44 million for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, $34 million for Giuliani and $25 million for McCain.

• Less money means fewer ads. While Romney is blitzing Iowa with TV ad touting his candidacy, Thompson’s campaign is hitting the airwaves on AM radio.

• Thompson’s campaign is organizing buses to gather up supporters from around the state and bring them to Ames to cast their ballot Saturday. Steve Grubbs, senior national adviser to Thompson, would not disclose how many buses the campaign was sending, but said more than a dozen would be filled with Thompson supporters.

• They intend to work until the bitter end. “We will work until Friday late afternoon arranging for people to ride the buses, and we’ll be pleading with our existing supporters to drag somebody along with them,” Grubbs said.

jjschless
08-09-2007, 02:41 AM
Bush went on to win the party’s nomination....

Because that was the plan....