U of Iowa poll- Paul at 7% for straw poll

[Ninja Homer]

Read full article here: http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/august/080807poll-results-republican.html


Iowa Straw Poll

A sample of 222 people who were considered the most likely Republican caucus goers were asked a series of questions about the Aug. 11 Straw Poll in Ames.

Most -- 81.5 percent -- were aware of the straw poll; 18.5 percent were not. Of those who were aware, only 23.8 percent planned to attend, leaving a number too small to analyze with confidence for details of candidate support. However, about one-third of those planning to attend said they support Romney, 16 percent Tancredo, 12 percent Giuliani, 9 percent Brownback and 7 percent Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas.

When asked about their reaction to McCain and Giuliani not attending the straw poll, Republicans were generally quite negative. Only 8.8 percent agreed with the statement "The straw poll doesn't mean much, so it doesn't matter if they don't participate." Nearly 17 percent believed that while the straw poll doesn't mean much, "all serious candidates should participate." About one-quarter agreed that "the straw poll is a good indicator of how candidates are doing, but not participating will not hurt them [McCain and Giuliani] in the caucus." Almost half believed that "the Straw Poll is a good indicator of how candidates are doing; by not participating they are hurting their chances in the caucus."

"Clearly, most Republicans think not participating in the straw poll will hurt both candidates," Redlawsk said. "When asked if it would affect their own vote, 15 percent said it would, and virtually all said it would make them less likely to support either candidate."

This poll was conducted July 29 through August 5th, before Ron Paul started campaigning and advertising in Iowa. I can only expect that it has gone up from 7% since then.

This is from a random sample of registered voters, I assume by land line, which leaves out a LOT of Ron Paul supporters: people without land lines, independents, democrats switching to republican for Paul, etc.

This is awesome news people! 2nd place is definitely reachable!

[MozoVote]

7% in a crowded field of ten candidates, most with far more money, is really pretty respectable.

[ThePieSwindler]

Well.. only 24% of 222 is 53 people, and 7 percent of 53 is about 4 people. So only 4 people said they'd vote for Ron Paul. I think we can safely say this poll had too small of a sample size to be significant, so the fluxuation is probably around +- 10% or so when extrapolated to 40,000....

[Ron Paul Fan]

Certainly more positive than the one Dave posted. We can only hope that Dr. Paul's supporters in the poll are more passionate and more likely to attend the straw poll than the other candidates' supporters. The people polled seemed to be Republican party members so that's a good sign.

[Sean]

I heard Paul and Romney are the only ones running TV ads now.

[spacebetween]

Um... so what am I missing here?

What's the difference between this poll and the one that the Des Moines Register posted about (thread started by Dave)?? Besides the numbers, of course.

[Johnnybags]

its a shocker, I believe its up to Ron now to drag those crowds that are listening to him tonight and over the next few days there to the poll, its a hot and sticky day and the most ardent supporters will show. Maybe Romneys busloads will overheat.

[Dave]

Um... so what am I missing here?

What's the difference between this poll and the one that the Des Moines Register posted about (thread started by Dave)?? Besides the numbers, of course.

Awesome! The U of I didn't have this press release up when I posted the story from the Des Moines Register. I'm anxious to see what the DMR reports in print tomorrow. I still can't figure out why Huckabee didn't register in this. He seems to have some momentum right now.

We'll know everything in 72 hours. Keep calling Iowans!

[Ninja Homer]

Um... so what am I missing here?

What's the difference between this poll and the one that the Des Moines Register posted about (thread started by Dave)?? Besides the numbers, of course.

It's the same poll, but the Des Moines Register didn't publish the full results of the poll.

[spacebetween]

It's the same poll, but the Des Moines Register didn't publish the full results of the poll.

The Register hasn't been so friendly lately. :mad:

[ThePieSwindler]

Guys, again, all this means is that 4 people said Ron Paul. Do the math. This poll was WAY too small to be that accurate. 24% of 222 is about 53 people, 7% of 53 is about 4 people. There might be more support, there might be less, the results are not a bad thing, they are just too small to have any significance.

[marcburmeister]

I heard Paul and Romney are the only ones running TV ads now.

Wrong, I live in Iowa and saw a Huckabee and Duncan Hunter ad yesterday on TV. I haven't seen any Ron Paul ads.

[Dave]

Wrong, I live in Iowa and saw a Huckabee and Duncan Hunter ad yesterday on TV. I haven't seen any Ron Paul ads.

I don't really see TV but the radio waves are saturated with commercials. Some guy even spent his own money putting one together for Tommy Thompson. Hunter has one done by Chuck Yeager but everyone has heard it 100 times. I'm hearing lots of Giuliani, Romney, Tancredo, and Hunter and quite a bit of Paul. Oddly enough I don't hear much of Huckabee and Brownback - I suppose they're working the churches. The homeschool crowd is largely with Huckabee but I've met a bunch of them at Ron Paul events.

[Ninja Homer]

Guys, again, all this means is that 4 people said Ron Paul. Do the math. This poll was WAY too small to be that accurate. 24% of 222 is about 53 people, 7% of 53 is about 4 people. There might be more support, there might be less, the results are not a bad thing, they are just too small to have any significance.

Very true, but it's still the best news for Ron Paul I've seen from a "scientific poll" since... umm... ever.

Here's the topline results: http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/august/080807UItopline.pdf

Take a look at the "likelihood of changing preference" and "satisfaction with candidates". I think those numbers speak well for Ron Paul, since many people hadn't heard of him, let alone know anything about him.

[drednot]

7% would be oustanding at this stage.

Iowa is a tough sell for Ron, kudos to the tireless folks doing the footwork there.

Lots of 2nd tier candidates from rural and/or neighboring states promising federal funding for "alternative energy" ie "corn pork" (try saying that 10 times fast.)

If he beats out Brownback or Thompson that'll be really huge in my book and pretty much knock those guys out of the race.

[paulitics]

this is encouraging. Wish it were a larger sample.

[Original_Intent]

this is encouraging. Wish it were a larger sample.

Saturday will be a larger sample =)

[jpa]

Math is wrong. It's 7% of 23.8% going of the 81.5% of the people who knew about the straw poll.

222 * 81.5% * 23.8% * 7% = 3

The most important part of the accuracy of the poll is random was the sample, how they determined "likely to go to the straw poll"

We really need a showing of support from people not likely to goto the straw poll (as determined by pollsters)

[Nathan Hale]

Guys, again, all this means is that 4 people said Ron Paul. Do the math. This poll was WAY too small to be that accurate. 24% of 222 is about 53 people, 7% of 53 is about 4 people. There might be more support, there might be less, the results are not a bad thing, they are just too small to have any significance.

Agreed. We're so quick to dismiss polls as inaccurate, but the moment one shows a sign of rising support we tend to laud it as prophecy. Let's hold the same standard for polls that put Ron at 1% and polls that put Ron at 7%

[Thom1776]

43 planning to attend the straw poll

Romney
14---33%

Tancredo
7---16%

Giuliani
5---12%

Brownback
4---9%

Paul
3---7%

Leaving 10 votes split amongst Cox, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, F Thompson, T Thompson and maybe undecided.

While this is indeed a very small sample, it is still a pretty good indicator.

When I was a candidate for office, a local radio talk show did an impromptu call-in poll. Although it was a very small sample, it was not very far off the final election results.

This is actually quite promising for Paul.

[jpa]

How the heck is Tancredo getting 2nd? Has he spent a lot of time on the ground there?

[Thom1776]

That's 7% of 40,000.

[RevolutionSD]

How the heck is Tancredo getting 2nd? Has he spent a lot of time on the ground there?

No kidding!
Do lots of Iowans want us to 'bomb Mecca'?

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

We need to do better than 5th, however. Would be best if we could beat all "2nd tier" candidates (in other words, grassroots-organized candidates versus media-created candidates).

[JosephTheLibertarian]

Let's aim for the win. I'm in the mood for an upset in Iowa.

[ARealConservative]

No kidding!
Do lots of Iowans want us to 'bomb Mecca'?

If nukes start exploding in America then this Iowan would support it. You do know Tancredo layed out a position based on terrorists setting nukes off within our cities, right?

A policy of America first is one that Iowans very much agree with.

[AgentPaul001]

I'm suprised Huckabee isn't polling better.

I think if Duncan Hunter has a poor showing in the Straw Poll we can expect him to drop out. Tommy Thompson's has placed all of his eggs in this straw poll as well, so a poor showing might mean the end of his campaign as well.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

That's 7% of 40,000.

more like 7% of 10 random people :rolleyes:

[Ninja Homer]

We need to do better than 5th, however. Would be best if we could beat all "2nd tier" candidates (in other words, grassroots-organized candidates versus media-created candidates).

I'm positive he'll do better than 5th. This poll was before Ron Paul started this week's push in Iowa.

There are so many variables in this, it's really hard to even guess what will happen, but I think most of the variables are in Ron Paul's favor.

Iowans are very proud people. They don't have pro sports teams or big cities, so this is kind of "their thing". For Giuliani and McCain to not even show up will hurt them very badly in Iowa. Probably the same for Fred Thompson... why make the effort to vote for somebody who isn't there and may not be in the race? Some people will probably make a point of going to the straw poll and voting for somebody else just to show them what happens when they disrespect their straw poll. I'd guess that's one of the main reasons that Romney is polling so high; they are voting for the next most likely candidate. These votes could be easily swayed to Ron Paul.

On Saturday in Ames, it will be 94 degrees with isolated thunderstorms. Those are bad conditions for getting people there that aren't real supportive of their candidate or that just wanted to go there for the party. It won't slow down Ron Paul supporters though!

Come to think of it, Iowan media might be paid off to give good weather forecasts. I have a friend who was a meteorologist in Minneapolis, and during state fair time they were not allowed to say that it would be a rainy or a hot day.

I don't want to guess, but I think there's a very good chance of 3rd or better, and a decent chance at 2nd. 1st is a long shot, but still possible.

[Nathan Hale]

Ninja's right, there are simply too many variables to rely on the divining rod. Let's just try as hard as we can to win this. Over the next 24 hours let's donate money for last minute ad placements, make as many calls to Iowa residents as we can, and write as much as we can to sites with Iowa exposure on the web, so that as many people as possible hear about Congressman Paul. I've advocated on another thread having the local meetup strafe Ames with a Ron Paul Revolution guerrila ad campaign early Saturday morning, so that the city is plastered with ads during the day on Sat.

Godspeed everyone.

[Bradley in DC]

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/8/10/225230/413