How is Ron Paul faring vs. John F kenedy 6 months before the primaries?

[JasonM]

How was John F Kenedy doing in the polls at this point in the primaries? I heard that he was polling at like 1% at one point.........

Would be interesting to draw parallels between Ron Paul and John F Kenedy since both literally came out of nowhere.

[ThePieSwindler]

How was John F Kenedy doing in the polls at this point in the primaries? I heard that he was polling at like 1% at one point.........

Would be interesting to draw parallels between Ron Paul and John F Kenedy since both literally came out of nowhere.

Whats also interesting is Kennedy was against the federal reserve as well... of course, press was also more free back then than it is now.

[FreedomLover]

Actually, Ive been trying to look up some old opinion polls that are placed right before primaries from long ago. I can't find any, and the gallup archive one is like 100$ a month.

Anyway, most opinion polling ends up wrong in these cases, that's why i don't take them seriously anymore.

[gravesdav]

I heard Ron Paul's father was an Irish mobster too.

[Nash]

Actually, Ive been trying to look up some old opinion polls that are placed right before primaries from long ago. I can't find any, and the gallup archive one is like 100$ a month.

Anyway, most opinion polling ends up wrong in these cases, that's why i don't take them seriously anymore.

Buchanan was polling 6% nationally one week before he won New Hampshire in 1996.

[Nefertiti]

I've got access to the archive. Here's the Gallup poll stats from 7/23-7/28, 1959:

Brown, Governor of California 1.95 30
Humphrey, Senator from Minnesota 6.05 93
Kefauver, Senator from Tennessee 9.62 148
Johnson, Senator from Texas 10.66 164
Kennedy, Senator from Massachusetts 27.96 430
Meyner, Governor of New Jersey 3.19 49
Stevenson, Former Governor of Illinois 20.29 312
Symington, Senator from Missouri 6.18 95
Williams, Governor of Michigan 2.34 36
Don't know, None 9.62 148
No answer 2.15 33


So Kennedy was already out in front.

[Nefertiti]

OTHER (SPECIFY) 34.31 205
DON'T KNOW 27.64 166
REFUSED 7.31 44
NONE 23.01 138
Larry Agrin 0.88 5
Lloyd Bentsen 27.32 164
Jerry Brown 16.35 98
Bill Clinton 10.20 61
Mario Cuomo 28.74 172
Tom Harkin 0.00 0
Jesse Jackson 0.00 0
Eugene McCarthy 0.00 0
Paul Tsongas 0.00 0
Douglas Wilder 0.00 0

Stats from 8/23/91

[Nefertiti]

Senator Birch Bayh 4.45 119
Senator Lloyd Bentsen 2.36 63
Jimmy Carter 3.82 102
Fred Harris 0.67 18
Senator Hubert Humphrey 15.75 421
Senator Henry Jackson 8.12 217
Senator Edward Kennedy 13.66 365
Senator George McGovern 8.27 221
Senator Edmund Muskie 9.24 247
Terry Sanford 1.05 28
Governor Milton Shapp 1.16 31
Sargent Shriver 3.52 94
Representative Morris Udall 3.29 88
Governor George Wallace 10.59 283
No code or no data 14.07 376

11/18/75
Carter was low, although there really was no clear front runner either.

[FreedomLover]

Thanks for the stats Nefertiti!

[Nefertiti]

Actually there's another set of stats for the same date in 1976, don't know why though as the question seems the same:

Senator Birch Bayh 4.49 120
Senator Lloyd Bentsen 1.01 27
Jimmy Carter 2.88 77
Fred Harris 1.38 37
Senator Hubert Humphrey 16.57 443
Senator Henry Jackson 7.03 188
Senator Edward Kennedy 22.75 608
Senator George McGovern 7.15 191
Senator Edmund Muskie 4.71 126
Terry Sanford 0.26 7
Governor Milton Shapp 1.20 32
Sargent Shriver 2.88 77
Representative Morris Udall 2.06 55
Governor George Wallace 18.93 506
No code or no data 6.70 179

I think we want to look at the news archives from that date until the primaries in 1976 to get a sense what Carter did right.

[FreedomLover]

Ted Kennedy and George Wallace were leading the polls back then. Makes you think.

[JasonM]

Very very interesting indeed

[disinter]

Whats also interesting is Kennedy was against the federal reserve as well... of course, press was also more free back then than it is now.

Thus the reason he is dead... imo

[brumans]

OTHER (SPECIFY) 34.31 205
DON'T KNOW 27.64 166
REFUSED 7.31 44
NONE 23.01 138
Larry Agrin 0.88 5
Lloyd Bentsen 27.32 164
Jerry Brown 16.35 98
Bill Clinton 10.20 61
Mario Cuomo 28.74 172
Tom Harkin 0.00 0
Jesse Jackson 0.00 0
Eugene McCarthy 0.00 0
Paul Tsongas 0.00 0
Douglas Wilder 0.00 0

Stats from 8/23/91

Is the Ames Straw Poll results?

[Nathan Hale]

Carter is the best parallel for Paul, though it's tough to use the Carter example when talking to a Republican crowd b/c you're guaranteed to hear the comeback "well he may have won but look what happened, he was a terrible president".

Any data on Ronald Reagan's numbers in 1976?