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JR from Texas
02-06-2008, 08:50 AM
I see these scenarios:

1) Ron Paul's official campaign needs to release a statement on whether or not Ron Paul can get the GOP nomination in a brokered convention without winning the majority of support from 5 states/territories in the initial roll call. If not, he should drop out after the next debate and begin to plan 3rd party run (see point 3). If he can get the nomination, see point 2.

*Note* I don't care about your interpretation of the RNC rules. We need an official answer on this one.

2) As a 3rd party run "feeler", the official campaign should release a list of states that have sore loser laws. Sore loser laws should be considered as part of the campaign strategy on whether continuing to seek the GOP nomination. If sore loser laws are deemed negligible, he should continue to plan for a brokered convention upset.

3) If and when it begins to become a McCain vs. Hillary race, Ron Paul should drop out and be the first to announce a 3rd party run (i.e. beat a Huckabesque Christian Right candidate or a Bloomberg to the draw). Any other scenario 3rd party scenario is a waste of his energy.

In summation, there is a lot of opportunity left on the table - for pursuing the GOP nomination, a 3rd party run, or neither - but it is clear we will need more direction from the official campaign to direct the grass roots along the best path.

btwilli1
02-06-2008, 08:53 AM
Give us a sign!

JR from Texas
02-06-2008, 09:04 AM
One logistical issue that we'll be kept in the dark in is how many Ron Paul supporting delegates we're able to work through the system to get to the RNC.

Each state differs, but here in Houston we just had a delegate training workshop on how to become a delegate at the state convention - and then how to become a delegate to the national convention. You might be tethered to a particular candidate (like McCain) initially, but after the 2nd roll call, you can vote for Ron Paul.

While this strategy is still completely solid (Focus on the Convention Delegates!), it takes energy, commitment, and a couple super tuesday 1st place moral victories would have gone along way to driving that engine in later states.

The logistical issue of being kept in the dark about RP supporting delegates + pessimism != winning combo, which is it is imperative that the official campaign provide us with clear direction.

colin1
02-06-2008, 09:12 AM
One logistical issue that we'll be kept in the dark in is how many Ron Paul supporting delegates we're able to work through the system to get to the RNC.

Each state differs, but here in Houston we just had a delegate training workshop on how to become a delegate at the state convention - and then how to become a delegate to the national convention. You might be tethered to a particular candidate (like McCain) initially, but after the 2nd roll call, you can vote for Ron Paul.

While this strategy is still completely solid (Focus on the Convention Delegates!), it takes energy, commitment, and a couple super tuesday 1st place moral victories would have gone along way to driving that engine in later states.

The logistical issue of being kept in the dark about RP supporting delegates + pessimism != winning combo, which is it is imperative that the official campaign provide us with clear direction.

I need to see a definitive strategy of how we can win in a brokered convention. And I don't mean one of those pie-in-the-sky scenarios where Romney and Huckabee throw their support to Paul. ;)

JR from Texas
02-06-2008, 09:37 AM
I need to see a definitive strategy of how we can win in a brokered convention. And I don't mean one of those pie-in-the-sky scenarios where Romney and Huckabee throw their support to Paul. ;)

Colin,

Each state has a different process on who becomes a RNC delegate and how the delegate votes at the RNC . I can only speak for Houston, Texas - but as a grassroots movement, we have to box our local corner in order to produce change.

We have a primary in Texas on March 4th. If any candidate gets a 50%+ majority, the state delegates to the RNC become tethered to that candidate - kinda like louisiana. The tethering process is different for each state, but amongst all states, if the RNC gets to a 3rd vote in the nomination process, the 2100 state delegates to the RNC can vote however they want.

In Texas, there is also separate election to elect delegates to the state convention - held the same day, AFTER the primary vote polls close. This can produce results kinda similar to Maine, where RP got 19% of the pop vote but 35% of the delegates to the state convention.

In Texas, the delegates to the state convention are voted on based off whoever shows up. Whoever gets the most votes decides the slate of delegates going to the RNC. So a good precinct captain could amass a number of Ron Paul supporters and sweep the precinct delegates to the state convention. Or a Ron Paul supporter could go covert and try to get on a slate by claiming to be a concerned citizen interested in the process (see Louisiana's Pro-Life Pro-Family slate). Or Ron Paul supporters could strike a deal with Huckabee supporters and share a slate. It all depends on YOUR LOCAL STRATEGY.

A similar process repeats at the state convention to decide who the RNC delegates are.

The beauty is, while the state may require the delegates to vote a certain way given the result of the primary, once a brokered convention occurs, the RNC delegates can vote however they want.

So if Ron Paul supporters are organized and become the RNC delegates (who might be required to vote mccain, romney, or huckabee in the first 2 rounds of voting), in the 3rd round they become ron paul supporters.

This takes EFFORT. But its something WE can do without the support of the official campaign. If we lose a brokered convention, it is become WE THE GRASS ROOTS are not doing our part.

JR from Texas
02-06-2008, 09:46 AM
a) Go door to door polling support.
b) Identify all Ron Paul supporters and educate them about the delegate process.
c) Compile a list of 10 delegates and 10 alternates (complete slate) who will either vote RP or not show up at the state convention (note: in texas, if 5 precinct delegates show up, their votes count as 2).
e) Send one RP supporter into the delegate election ahead of time to determine if we have a majority.
f) if so, go on in, we got it the delegates locked (note: if yr the first one there, you get to decide how the vote is taken).
g) if not, based on the crowd, determine if we should strike a deal with the other largest subdominant party there or infiltrate the dominant part as candidate X supporters

This assures me the optimal delegates in my precinct. If other precinct captains do the same, we will get ALL of Texas' delegates in a brokered convention.