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View Full Version : Caucus ave. 13% vs. Primary ave. 4%




raystone
02-06-2008, 08:03 AM
Here's just Dr. Paul's results from yesterday ... the average vote percentage in caucus states is 13% (including 2 states with 0%), and the average vote percentage in primary states is 4%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#302


Significant vote percentage differences between primary and caucus states

Why, specifically, is this happening, and how can we use this to make the movement more powerful ?

FluxCapacitor
02-06-2008, 08:14 AM
About those states with caucases with Ron Paul at 0% - That's the percentage of vote for Ron Paul on the FINAL ballot.

If you poke around a bit more you can find the vote totals for the first ballot.

In West Virginia, for example, Ron Paul had 10% on the first ballot, in last place so he didn't make it onto the second ballot, and that was the final ballot so that is the result you are seeing. Use the first ballot in your averages if you are trying to measure Ron Paul's support.

raystone
02-06-2008, 09:13 AM
.... using final ballot averages because that's the question. What about the caucus process gives Paul much higher end results.

nullvalu
02-06-2008, 09:18 AM
.... using final ballot averages because that's the question. What about the caucus process gives Paul much higher end results.

I have a theory....... Because people involved in caucus voting vs. general population voting actually know a few things about politics.. the rest of the sheeple who "vote" in primary states vote for who the media tells them to.

nayjevin
02-06-2008, 09:24 AM
I have a theory....... Because people involved in caucus voting vs. general population voting actually know a few things about politics.. the rest of the sheeple who "vote" in primary states vote for who the media tells them to.

This must explain part of it, the rest I would think is voter fraud.

TonySutton
02-06-2008, 09:25 AM
Yes, Caucus goers generally are there because they have done their research and truly want their candidate to win. Primaries often have other issues up for vote that might attract voters, unfortunately those voters may vote for President while never actually researching. They vote based on what they heard on MSM.

ambiguousscion
02-06-2008, 09:26 AM
It's all vote fraud, they are all out to get us and we need to hide in our houses...:rolleyes:

raystone
02-06-2008, 09:51 AM
I live in a primary state, can someone that caucused explain how it went down there ?

Lois
02-06-2008, 10:10 AM
Voter Fraud. :mad::mad:

mosquitobite
02-06-2008, 10:13 AM
I have a theory....... Because people involved in caucus voting vs. general population voting actually know a few things about politics.. the rest of the sheeple who "vote" in primary states vote for who the media tells them to.

I agree with this. People who don't generally like politics would not like caucuses at all. They take more time, you have to research the candidates a bit more, etc. Basically, primaries favor the apathetic, caucuses do not.

I think that's why we do better there.

Mystile
02-06-2008, 10:14 AM
primaries should be abolished. Caucuses all the way.

raystone
02-06-2008, 10:55 AM
voter fraud.... except that, oh yeah, Ron Paul poll watchers have verified exit polling matched final vote percentages on numerous occasions. Still has been nothing concrete to say otherwise.

FluxCapacitor
02-06-2008, 12:21 PM
.... using final ballot averages because that's the question. What about the caucus process gives Paul much higher end results.

Well, different caucuses use different systems. Some of them have only one ballot. Some have multiple ballots, with the candidate in last place being eliminated each time until one candidate gets a majority.

If you're averaging together some first ballot percentages with some second and third ballot percentages, you're not getting a clear picture of Ron Paul's support in caucus states. You're also not measuring "end results". You're measuring intermediate results. You could as easily claim that the end result was the same in Montana and California: 0 delegates. In fact, if Ron Paul's supporters in West Virgina made a deal with Huckabee's supporters on the second Ballot, and that resulted in 3 national delegates... isn't that the "end result"? That's a result of Ron Paul getting 10% of the vote in West Virginia. To pretend that he got 0% is kind of strange.

My question is this: what exactly are you trying to measure?

I am curious to see which percentage of the voters supported Ron Paul. For West Virginia, that was 10%. Why is it better to count West Virginia as 0%? What are you actually measuring when you calculate it like that?

ArrestPoliticians
02-06-2008, 12:34 PM
Less people vote in Caucuses because they are held at specific times...you have to be highly motivated to vote there.

Having said that, obviously there has been some fraud.

J Free
02-06-2008, 04:24 PM
.... using final ballot averages because that's the question. What about the caucus process gives Paul much higher end results.

Because it allows people to work in their own neighborhood one-on-one and see that that can make a difference.

Primaries are a media game and they pull in large numbers of people who believe that 4 seconds of effort is a satisfactory civic accomplishment.

If you like top-down, media/poll/consultant/fundraising-driven parties, then primaries are for you.

If you like grassroots, neighborhoods, bottom-up; then caucuses are for you.

RP supporters in caucus state focused on winning their neighborhoods. RP supporters in primary states focused on name recognition, media watch, general marketing and other abstractions.

The proof of which one has worked is in the results.

J Free
02-06-2008, 04:35 PM
I live in a primary state, can someone that caucused explain how it went down there ?

We caucused here in CO.

Our district (40 precincts +/-) GOP officials set up a public place. Each precinct (roughly 1000 total voters) had a table with prepared info (meeting script, voter lists, election forms, etc). Each precinct organized itself and started their own caucus. In ours, everything was plurality vote.

What a caucus really reveals is how many people really are uncommitted. Yes, they are committed to the process - but that doesn't mean they are committed to a candidate. Romney won my precincts straw poll convincingly. But talking to them, it was clear they were mainly anti-McCain. So I tailored my speech to that - didn't even mention Dr Paul (sorry Dr Paul) - and got to be a delegate.

Primaries hide that because everyone's decisions and pre-vote thinking is anonymous and private. No one talks to others to find out what they are thinking. In that isolation, people make a choice in the voting booth - and the only thing that has influenced them is the media.

Paulitician
02-06-2008, 07:06 PM
Caucuses are smaller, they require more effort and dedication, and you can actually convince other people to vote for your guy.

Primaries are, however, much larger, the process is more simple etc. Is it really surprising? There might be some funny stuff that goes on, but I don't think it's very widespread. Have you guys gone outside? Almost no one knows about Ron Paul--especially not those likely to vote.

parocks
02-07-2008, 04:06 AM
Here's just Dr. Paul's results from yesterday ... the average vote percentage in caucus states is 13% (including 2 states with 0%), and the average vote percentage in primary states is 4%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/candidates/#302


Significant vote percentage differences between primary and caucus states

Why, specifically, is this happening, and how can we use this to make the movement more powerful ?


Our supporters are fewer in number but more motivated.
Caucus turnout is much lower than primary turnout.

QCB79
02-07-2008, 04:30 AM
well i cant speak for anyone else but I think this may have had an impact to some degree. many people , myself included are new to politics and really dont know how the whole election process works. we all caught onto Ron Paul and suddenly we became interested but still not knowing the process hurt.

For instance in my state FL. I'm registered Democrat because I wanted the opposite of G.W. bush So along comes Ron Paul and i figure great, finally someone who can make some much needed changes. I'll vote for him. Again, having never voted and not knowing the process i find out that Florida is a closed primary state. Only voters who are registered members of the two major political parties (Republicans and Democrats) may vote for their respective party's candidates in a primary election.

so, i couldnt vote and i'm sure i'm not the only one who ran into that issue

also in my county the numbers for actual voters were
Registered Voters: 42,715
Ballots Cast: 20,949
Voter Turnout: 49.04 %

Kingfisher
02-07-2008, 06:05 AM
I firmly beleive R.P. is getting many more votes than are being counted. But what can we do about it?