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garrettwombat
02-06-2008, 06:46 AM
in what situation will have to occur for a victory in the republican party???


is there really a chance at a brokered convention...

paul only having 16 delegates and everyone else 300+
will this effect us???

what is about to happen?

CJLauderdale4
02-06-2008, 06:48 AM
yes. in most states, the actual people who will be the delegates have not been selected yet. I'm in the running in FL, and I am NOT voting for McCain.

So, don't believe the "pledged" delegate BS you see on TV. When Huck and Romney jump out, it'll be Ron vs. Juan McCain - then we'll see the revolution begin!!

RageAgainstDC
02-06-2008, 06:49 AM
simply put, no. well, i suppose there is some remote possibility, but the chances of everything working out to our advantage make an independent victory look like a sure thing. others on here will argue to the contrary, but the sad fact is that the gop won. if we're going to put ron in the whitehouse, it isn't going to be as a republican. life sucks...

tangent4ronpaul
02-06-2008, 06:50 AM
*IMPORTANT!* - Strategy to win the nomination.

We can win this nomination through a brokered convention but need to be in a better position delegate wise, to do it. A post by bcreps85 in http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=113466&page=2 (post 12) got me to thinking:

“...there are more than 20 states left, and we are the only ones with any money left. After Super Tuesday everyone else just plans to coast through on momentum...as far as everyone else knows the races are pretty much over after tonight. The MSM will crown McCain as king and everyone will just assume he has nothing to worry about after tonight. No reason to stop now.”

Considering our strengths and weaknesses, we are in a better position now than for previous primaries and caucuses.

We are weak when we have to depend on the MSN to get the message out. Cramming all the super Tuesday states together makes us very dependent on the coverage whey will give us and minimizes our superior grassroots support. People can't help other states when their own state has a primary the same day. We have a lot of support, but swarming spread out primaries gives us a force multiplier the other campaigns don't have.

Strengths:

Our numbers.
Our ability to raise money via money bombs
Our support structure (artists, video, bands, tech ppl, etc.)
Our infrastructure (communication problems make this a disadvantage too)
Left over materials
Contact lists of supporters
We have established networks and have experience.
Geography
The precinct leader campaign has been very successful at raising our poll numbers. The problem is that we have so few precincts covered. If we did it right, we could cover all the precincts. That's how we can win. Well, at least get us to convention with a good chance.

We have had some very successful projects in the past that we should emulate. Right now, people are working on a more or less every state for themselves basis for the remaining states. My proposal is to bring back the regional coalitions concept, like we did in Iowa. Do one for each grouping of states on a particular date.

For each:

Have a mini-moneybomb to help fund it as well as chipins for projects.
Set up a Operation NH / Live Free or Die for housing and feeding supporters from the next states.
Coordinate regular Meetups (every weekend or longer) for supporters in the neighboring states to come and help canvas/lit drop/phone bank/GOTV.
Set up a state HQ if there is not one already there.
Arrange with neighboring states, the collection and transfer of surplus material.

Make this a deliberate process. Make sure every one of those and probably others are covered.


These are the groupings of states on the same date. I suggest we set up a project and form regional coalitions for each. The territories we'd have to look at, single states on a date we might want to group into a project with another date(s) :

02/09/2008GuamRepublican
02/09/2008KansasRepublican
02/09/2008LouisianaRepublican


02/12/2008DistrictofColumbiaRepublican
02/12/2008MarylandRepublican
02/12/2008VirginiaRepublican


02/19/2008WashingtonRepublican
02/19/2008WisconsinRepublican


02/23/2008American SamoaRepublican
02/23/2008Virgin IslandsRepublican
02/24/2008PuertoRicoRepublican


03/04/2008OhioRepublican
03/04/2008RhodeIslandRepublican
03/04/2008TexasRepublican
03/04/2008VermontRepublican


03/11/2008MississippiRepublican


04/22/2008PennsylvaniaRepublican


05/06/2008IndianaRepublican
05/06/2008NorthCarolinaRepublican


05/13/2008NebraskaRepublican


05/20/2008KentuckyRepublican
05/20/2008OregonRepublican


05/27/2008IdahoRepublican


06/03/2008New MexicoRepublican
06/03/2008South DakotaRepublican

Start working actively a month before each states primary or caucus if we have that much time. Start early. This campaign has track record of doing things at the last minute.

I believe you have to go back 2 weeks to get something on TV - that's handing them the media and money. Go back at least a week, ideally a month for fund raising, etc. You have to plan ahead. Work precincts for the month leading up to the election, if possible.


Yes, it's all “obvious” and “common sense”, but the difference is doing it.

-n

RageAgainstDC
02-06-2008, 06:54 AM
i swear some of you people truly are delirious. this campaign proved one thing, YOU CAN'T WIN A BALLGAME WHEN THE UMPIRE IS ROOTING AGAINST YOU!!!!! quit beating a dead horse and announce a third party run before what's left of our support has given up hope. anyone who tells you we're going to win the republican nomination is either stupid or wearing rose-colored glasses like i've never seen before in my life....

BravoSix
02-06-2008, 06:55 AM
Don't believe the defeatists among us. It is possible.

Spend 15 minutes reading various threads on this board, and it quickly becomes apparent that the majority of posters here have no clue as to how the actual process works, much like the majority of the American public. They would rather post incessantly on this forum, staying glued to the MSM that they claim to despise, and scream "It's over!" after every primary or caucus.

There are those of us who understand the process, are trying to make a difference, and are actually getting stuff accomplished.

It's become increasingly hard to find anything of substance on these forums.

realist
02-06-2008, 06:56 AM
Is there a chance? Sure. But there's a better chance you'll win the lottery.

We can forget about the republican nomination, and the presidency.

BravoSix
02-06-2008, 06:56 AM
i swear some of you people truly are delirious. this campaign proved one thing, YOU CAN'T WIN A BALLGAME WHEN THE UMPIRE IS ROOTING AGAINST YOU!!!!! quit beating a dead horse and announce a third party run before what's left of our support has given up hope. anyone who tells you we're going to win the republican nomination is either stupid or wearing rose-colored glasses like i've never seen before in my life....


You're one of the types I'm talking about above. You do more harm than good.

:rolleyes:

tangent4ronpaul
02-06-2008, 06:58 AM
Molon labe!

-n

gpickett00
02-06-2008, 06:59 AM
tangent, you say that the other candidates don't have any more money. Since when did that stop Romney from giving himself more? When did that stop Huckabee from winning states? When did that stop Mccain from being so heavily favored by the media. If Romney and Huck drop out and its Mccain vs RP for the rest of the states, how do we expect to beat Mccain 1v1? Its not about money. In the remaining states I can't see RP ever beating Mccain by getting over 50% of the votes. We need to WIN states if we have any shot at a brokered convention. I think the whole notion of banking on a brokered convention is quite naive and people need to wake up.

RageAgainstDC
02-06-2008, 06:59 AM
Don't believe the defeatists among us. It is possible.

Spend 15 minutes reading various threads on this board, and it quickly becomes apparent that the majority of posters here have no clue as to how the actual process works, much like the majority of the American public. They would rather post incessantly on this forum, staying glued to the MSM that they claim to despise, and scream "It's over!" after every primary or caucus.

There are those of us who understand the process, are trying to make a difference, and are actually getting stuff accomplished.

It's become increasingly hard to find anything of substance on these forums.


you are saying that based on the remote possibility that something MAY happen. something that hasn't ever happened in the history of the United States of America. something that, statistically, has a fraction of one percentage point chance of happening. so, i'm a "defeatist" because i don't think it's likely that we'll win 5 states (though it's not confirmed to be necessary), mccain won't secure the nom., we'll go brokered, and then we'll convince 51% of the people who think we're fringe nutjobs that ron is their man. oh yeah, they're all pro-war, big gov't neocons, too. yeah, i must be crazy...

you will be the defeatists when you keep beating this dead horse until the window of opportunity to announce a 3rd party run and salvage support has passed.

FreeTraveler
02-06-2008, 06:59 AM
simply put, no. well, i suppose there is some remote possibility, but the chances of everything working out to our advantage make an independent victory look like a sure thing. others on here will argue to the contrary, but the sad fact is that the gop won. if we're going to put ron in the whitehouse, it isn't going to be as a republican. life sucks...

Glad to see you've become a political expert, and know all about everything since you joined LAST MONTH. Let's let Dr. Paul chime in before we decide the world has ended, k?

tommyzDad
02-06-2008, 07:00 AM
Don't believe the defeatists among us. It is possible.

Spend 15 minutes reading various threads on this board, and it quickly becomes apparent that the majority of posters here have no clue as to how the actual process works, much like the majority of the American public. They would rather post incessantly on this forum, staying glued to the MSM that they claim to despise, and scream "It's over!" after every primary or caucus.

There are those of us who understand the process, are trying to make a difference, and are actually getting stuff accomplished.

It's become increasingly hard to find anything of substance on these forums.

Then please start a thread to educate the rest of us, so we can put an end to these defeatist threads. This is not sarcasm on my part. Please, start a thread. Entitle it: How It Really Works!

RageAgainstDC
02-06-2008, 07:01 AM
You're one of the types I'm talking about above. You do more harm than good.

:rolleyes:

no, you people that refuse to accept reality and just continue to push this "we can still win the repub nomination" crap are doing more harm than good. just wait, you'll see. you'll look back one day after all the support has dried up and wish that you had announced a third party run before everyone jumped ship. so, no, you are wrong.

Airborn
02-06-2008, 07:02 AM
send the GOP/MSM a message sign this petition: http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/notogop/

RageAgainstDC
02-06-2008, 07:05 AM
Glad to see you've become a political expert, and know all about everything since you joined LAST MONTH. Let's let Dr. Paul chime in before we decide the world has ended, k?

know who you're talking to, [Redacted by Moderator]. i am probably one of the only people on this board who actually get paid to work in the political arena. i've got more experience in politics than, likely, anyone else on this forum. i know how the system works. anyone with a thorough understanding of the system would know that any effort to win the repub nomination past this point is futile. some people just don't like sad facts, and would rather attack someone's character than wake up to the real situation. we have 2 options. announce a third party run NOW and salvage support, or accept a mccain/hillary general. sorry. i'm not dogging anyone. i'm not saying quit trying. i'm just saying that we HAVE to go 3rd party, and we have to do it NOW. we can't afford to lose any more support. an announcement will bring a surge of enthusiasm. that is what we need.

tangent4ronpaul
02-06-2008, 07:11 AM
tangent, you say that the other candidates don't have any more money. Since when did that stop Romney from giving himself more? When did that stop Huckabee from winning states? When did that stop Mccain from being so heavily favored by the media. If Romney and Huck drop out and its Mccain vs RP for the rest of the states, how do we expect to beat Mccain 1v1? Its not about money. In the remaining states I can't see RP ever beating Mccain by getting over 50% of the votes. We need to WIN states if we have any shot at a brokered convention. I think the whole notion of banking on a brokered convention is quite naive and people need to wake up.

Romney has a big family - think they might be getting a bit worried about inheritance?

Huchabee is popular in the south. Look at a map of states he's won. Someone posted a link to a map on religious distributions. Ah - here it is:

http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2008/01/27/237-regionalism-and-religiosity/

I'm guessing that will map to a lot of his wins, and I think most went off on Super Tuesday.

The media is a problem which is why we need to counter it with person to person contact.

Where do you get the notion that we have to win states by a win(s) of over 50%?

-n

tangent4ronpaul
02-06-2008, 07:14 AM
know who you're talking to, [edit for quote]. i am probably one of the only people on this board who actually get paid to work in the political arena.

OH! - please provide details! Sounds like you are a paid troll. How does that work? Where can I get a job?

;)

-n

Mister Grieves
02-06-2008, 07:14 AM
know who you're talking to, [edit for quote]. i am probably one of the only people on this board who actually get paid to work in the political arena. i've got more experience in politics than, likely, anyone else on this forum. i know how the system works.
Then you must not be too bright if you are seriously calling for a third part run. I suggest you look into what that entails. Troll.

Then please start a thread to educate the rest of us, so we can put an end to these defeatist threads. This is not sarcasm on my part. Please, start a thread. Entitle it: How It Really Works!http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=113252

RageAgainstDC
02-06-2008, 07:15 AM
OH! - please provide details! Sounds like you are a paid troll. How does that work? Where can I get a job?

;)

-n


troll? not quite. close, though. i work for zogby.

RageAgainstDC
02-06-2008, 07:17 AM
Then you must not be too bright if you are seriously calling for a third part run. I suggest you look into what that entails. Troll.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=113252


it entails a hell of a lot less than what would have to fall into place for a brokered convention to even take place, let alone for us to convince the neo-cons that we couldn't get a vote out of that ron is their man. think about it. it's a slim chance, but atleast it's a chance. atleast it is more time to get the message out.

allyinoh
02-06-2008, 07:22 AM
I believe to keep hopes alive we needed to win atleast 2 states... We didn't. Not even Alaska where we thought we had the best chance.

I'm not going to stop, I'm in this thing until the very end (hoping there will never be an end) but this has and will discourage a lot of people.

We look like fools. Let me correct myself, the media and the GOP has made us look like fools. I think if everyone who in the beginning that said they were voting for Paul had given everything they had and got off the computer, got away from the tv and went out and went door to door or called, maybe it would have been different.

The campaign needed money, we've given them $5 million so far this year. It's pitiful.

We need to cheer up, look at the states we have left, and try our damn hardest to do what we need to do and that's get Ron Paul to win some states.

ceakins
02-06-2008, 07:29 AM
troll? not quite. close, though. i work for zogby.


Really, so are you trying to influence the polls, since I'm one of those zogby poll takers?

FreeTraveler
02-06-2008, 07:31 AM
A Perfect Storm is Brewing...

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=113660

RageAgainstDC
02-06-2008, 07:36 AM
Really, so are you trying to influence the polls, since I'm one of those zogby poll takers?

no. i'm trying to influence the movement into a more rational course of action that would better promote the movement's cause. see my thread in grassroots central. i'm leaving this thread to those of you who refuse to think rationally and like to attack people.

parocks
02-06-2008, 07:39 AM
yes. in most states, the actual people who will be the delegates have not been selected yet. I'm in the running in FL, and I am NOT voting for McCain.

So, don't believe the "pledged" delegate BS you see on TV. When Huck and Romney jump out, it'll be Ron vs. Juan McCain - then we'll see the revolution begin!!

At this point, I like the "brokered convention" idea, especially since the "win states" idea hasn't really worked.

But, I'm not sure exactly how well rooting for a direct Paul vs McCain battle is going to work. Wouldn't McCain just lock up the delegates he needs if it's Paul vs McCain?

The brokered convention strategy was 2 pronged, I thought.
1) Many Republicans get delegates by performing well in Primaries and Caucuses.
From here on out, obviously we want delegates, but apart from that, we want no Republican to get enough delegates to wrap up the nomination on the first ballot.

2) We do a lot of the confusing stuff about becoming delegates. Theoretically, there could be a lot of Ron Paul supporters who are forced by rule to vote for the winner of a primary on the first ballot. However, on the second ballot, they could vote for whoever they wanted. Because they're Ron Paul supporters, they'd vote for Ron Paul.

Main point being, if we don't get 1) - a brokered convention, with McCain getting fewer delegates than necessary to win on the first ballot, we don't get 2).

It just seems reasonable to think that McCain is going to get more delegates going forward if he's head to head against Paul than if he's against Paul, Mitt and Huck.

There are other scenarios where Paul vs McCain head to head could go to our benefit. Most of those involve some sort of complete McCain collapse.

If Mitt and Huck do drop out, the NYT and others will likely consider the election over. They will then start to tear McCain apart. There are likely scandals about McCain that we haven't heard the last of.

McCain could have some sort of health thing. He could be struck by lightning.

If its McCain vs Paul, I think that there's a decent chance that if we worked our asses off, we could win a state, which would make us happy.

So, there's that to consider as well.

MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2
02-06-2008, 07:41 AM
tangent, you say that the other candidates don't have any more money. Since when did that stop Romney from giving himself more? When did that stop Huckabee from winning states? When did that stop Mccain from being so heavily favored by the media. If Romney and Huck drop out and its Mccain vs RP for the rest of the states, how do we expect to beat Mccain 1v1? Its not about money. In the remaining states I can't see RP ever beating Mccain by getting over 50% of the votes. We need to WIN states if we have any shot at a brokered convention. I think the whole notion of banking on a brokered convention is quite naive and people need to wake up.

Romney won't continue to spend his personal fortune on this.

Huckabee has no money, and it doesn't matter for him. He and McCain will get hundreds of millions more in free media coverage. Huckabee will stay in until the end, because he made a deal with cain some time ago. (as far as I can tell.)

As long as Huck stays in and continues to pick up delegates with McCain, it doesn't look good for us having anything happening at the convention.

I'll defer to the judgement of the official campaign, though. I think they have some information that we don't. They'll know when it's time to change direction.

parocks
02-06-2008, 07:43 AM
no, you people that refuse to accept reality and just continue to push this "we can still win the repub nomination" crap are doing more harm than good. just wait, you'll see. you'll look back one day after all the support has dried up and wish that you had announced a third party run before everyone jumped ship. so, no, you are wrong.

Winning 3rd party isn't very likely either. The brokered convention stategy is a better one. Neither is likely to result in victory at this point, sad to say.

Roxi
02-06-2008, 07:48 AM
in what situation will have to occur for a victory in the republican party???


is there really a chance at a brokered convention...

paul only having 16 delegates and everyone else 300+
will this effect us???

what is about to happen?



heres what you don't get. - in any state that is winner take all, that one candidate didn't recieve 51% of the vote it goes to brokered convention, so in turn huckabee did us a favor by keeping it equal between the 3 stooges, SOOO yes most states do go to brokered convention.


heres the other part everyone else does NOT have 300+ delegates, SURE the media would like you to think that but they are just projecting the number of delegates by the percentages, THE CAUCUSES IN MOST OF THESE STATES HAVE NOT HAPPENED YET, so they are just GUESSING how many delegates each candidate has. what are they psychic?

so in other words, yes we still have a chance at the republican nomination but not if everyone freaks out the way they are, there are going to be TONS of trolls on here in the next few days trying to discourage you guys, DONT LET IT GET TO YOU.

we can win this, IF you ignore anyone who says otherwise and just do the work its going to take to get it done. if you don't know what work needs to be done let me know and Ill explain it to you.

expatinireland
02-06-2008, 08:04 AM
yes. in most states, the actual people who will be the delegates have not been selected yet. I'm in the running in FL, and I am NOT voting for McCain.

So, don't believe the "pledged" delegate BS you see on TV. When Huck and Romney jump out, it'll be Ron vs. Juan McCain - then we'll see the revolution begin!!

McCain, if he ends up as the front runner will take Huck or Mitt as his running mate.

I doubt that we have much of a chance at this point to get a result from the Republican Party nominating process but it is up to Ron to decide what to do and I will support him all the way.

The results so far are telling us either we didn't do the job or the Republican electorate are interested in Warfare and Welfare more than they are in Peace, Prosperity and Freedom.

As far as I'm concerned,

It's the Republican Party, Stupid

qh4dotcom
02-06-2008, 08:07 AM
McCain's got skin cancer and might not make it to the republican nomination....McCain might lose the last little bit of grey matter he's got between his ears....McCain may say something dumb again like his 100 year war comment.

Roxi
02-06-2008, 08:12 AM
*IMPORTANT!* - Strategy to win the nomination.

We can win this nomination through a brokered convention but need to be in a better position delegate wise, to do it. A post by bcreps85 in http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=113466&page=2 (post 12) got me to thinking:

“...there are more than 20 states left, and we are the only ones with any money left. After Super Tuesday everyone else just plans to coast through on momentum...as far as everyone else knows the races are pretty much over after tonight. The MSM will crown McCain as king and everyone will just assume he has nothing to worry about after tonight. No reason to stop now.”

Considering our strengths and weaknesses, we are in a better position now than for previous primaries and caucuses.

We are weak when we have to depend on the MSN to get the message out. Cramming all the super Tuesday states together makes us very dependent on the coverage whey will give us and minimizes our superior grassroots support. People can't help other states when their own state has a primary the same day. We have a lot of support, but swarming spread out primaries gives us a force multiplier the other campaigns don't have.

Strengths:

Our numbers.
Our ability to raise money via money bombs
Our support structure (artists, video, bands, tech ppl, etc.)
Our infrastructure (communication problems make this a disadvantage too)
Left over materials
Contact lists of supporters
We have established networks and have experience.
Geography
The precinct leader campaign has been very successful at raising our poll numbers. The problem is that we have so few precincts covered. If we did it right, we could cover all the precincts. That's how we can win. Well, at least get us to convention with a good chance.

We have had some very successful projects in the past that we should emulate. Right now, people are working on a more or less every state for themselves basis for the remaining states. My proposal is to bring back the regional coalitions concept, like we did in Iowa. Do one for each grouping of states on a particular date.

For each:

Have a mini-moneybomb to help fund it as well as chipins for projects.
Set up a Operation NH / Live Free or Die for housing and feeding supporters from the next states.
Coordinate regular Meetups (every weekend or longer) for supporters in the neighboring states to come and help canvas/lit drop/phone bank/GOTV.
Set up a state HQ if there is not one already there.
Arrange with neighboring states, the collection and transfer of surplus material.

Make this a deliberate process. Make sure every one of those and probably others are covered.


These are the groupings of states on the same date. I suggest we set up a project and form regional coalitions for each. The territories we'd have to look at, single states on a date we might want to group into a project with another date(s) :

02/09/2008GuamRepublican
02/09/2008KansasRepublican
02/09/2008LouisianaRepublican


02/12/2008DistrictofColumbiaRepublican
02/12/2008MarylandRepublican
02/12/2008VirginiaRepublican


02/19/2008WashingtonRepublican
02/19/2008WisconsinRepublican


02/23/2008American SamoaRepublican
02/23/2008Virgin IslandsRepublican
02/24/2008PuertoRicoRepublican


03/04/2008OhioRepublican
03/04/2008RhodeIslandRepublican
03/04/2008TexasRepublican
03/04/2008VermontRepublican


03/11/2008MississippiRepublican


04/22/2008PennsylvaniaRepublican


05/06/2008IndianaRepublican
05/06/2008NorthCarolinaRepublican


05/13/2008NebraskaRepublican


05/20/2008KentuckyRepublican
05/20/2008OregonRepublican


05/27/2008IdahoRepublican


06/03/2008New MexicoRepublican
06/03/2008South DakotaRepublican

Start working actively a month before each states primary or caucus if we have that much time. Start early. This campaign has track record of doing things at the last minute.

I believe you have to go back 2 weeks to get something on TV - that's handing them the media and money. Go back at least a week, ideally a month for fund raising, etc. You have to plan ahead. Work precincts for the month leading up to the election, if possible.


Yes, it's all “obvious” and “common sense”, but the difference is doing it.

-n

ok this is what im talking about


also don't forget that a lot of winner take all states from super tuesday that no candidate won the majority (51%) that also still have their caucuses later are in this too

missouri's caucus is march 15th, we need as many people as possible to show up, even if your not interested in becoming a delegate you can still show up and vote for someone else, not only that but the percentage of delegates we can have depend on how many people show up

we know mitt is going to have 500 people show up, so we need 700 :rolleyes:

can someone make a list of other states that are like missouri as well? I would but im really busy working on missouri :)

realist
02-06-2008, 08:13 AM
Serious question.


What hurts this "movement" more?

A) Those that acknowledge the obvious failure of this campaign and came here, while there was still time, to motivate a change in course- despite the onslaught of insults?

or

B) Those that never acknowledge failure, refuse to think on their own, and will follow the train down the drain casting aspersions against any that believe differently?


Think about it!


In what sane universe, is the current state of this campaign something to aspire to? Those of you that keep spewing this garbage hurt the movements credibility becuase it gives any reasonable person looking in, the impression that you are crazy and unable deal with obvious facts. As much as anything else, this fosters a sense that the people here and this movement can't be taken seriously!

Don't you get it? At this point we're coming across as sore loosers that refuse to acknowledge that we're not even close to being competitive. Are you kidding me? Do any of you actually believe that we're going to go into a convention, having done so much worse than any other candidate, and somehow we're going do then what we haven't been able to do during the entire campaign, and walk away with a majority?

Please, get a grip! We HAD great promise- and it was squandered by an ineffective campaign that had more resources than many, but failed to capitalize on those resources. That's the real shame here.

WRellim
02-06-2008, 09:20 AM
in what situation will have to occur for a victory in the republican party???


is there really a chance at a brokered convention...

paul only having 16 delegates and everyone else 300+
will this effect us???

what is about to happen?

The scenario for a win?

1) In a secret bus headed to a secret CFR meeting, John McCain is discussing his plans for his administration's cabinet and is playing Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee off each other as they sit next to one another. Jeb Bush and Newt Gingrich are along on the trip as well, chattering in the seats behind with Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback and every other establishment GOP'er....

2) And you know what happens to the bus....

3) We Win! W00T!!!

speciallyblend
02-06-2008, 09:24 AM
yeah we do about a .01% in the republican party about a 60% chance as a independent

Eponym_mi
02-06-2008, 09:25 AM
The only way Ron Paul can realistically win in a brokered convention is if 1191+ delegates are in fact trojan horse delegates loyal to Ron Paul. At this point, I'd like to know the truth about how many trojan horse delegates we actually have. Otherwise, this talk about a brokered convention is bullshit.

WRellim
02-06-2008, 09:33 AM
Serious question.


What hurts this "movement" more?

A) Those that acknowledge the obvious failure of this campaign and came here, while there was still time, to motivate a change in course- despite the onslaught of insults?

or

B) Those that never acknowledge failure, refuse to think on their own, and will follow the train down the drain casting aspersions against any that believe differently?


Think about it!


In what sane universe, is the current state of this campaign something to aspire to? Those of you that keep spewing this garbage hurt the movements credibility becuase it gives any reasonable person looking in, the impression that you are crazy and unable deal with obvious facts. As much as anything else, this fosters a sense that the people here and this movement can't be taken seriously!

Don't you get it? At this point we're coming across as sore loosers that refuse to acknowledge that we're not even close to being competitive. Are you kidding me? Do any of you actually believe that we're going to go into a convention, having done so much worse than any other candidate, and somehow we're going do then what we haven't been able to do during the entire campaign, and walk away with a majority?

Please, get a grip! We HAD great promise- and it was squandered by an ineffective campaign that had more resources than many, but failed to capitalize on those resources. That's the real shame here.

QFT

Especially THIS part: Don't you get it? At this point we're coming across as sore loosers[sic] that refuse to acknowledge that we're not even close to being competitive.

And as I have said before, THE mentality you describe in your #2 point -- is IDENTICAL to that of the "GOP Trolls" that continue to support GWB and the Iraq War; which means we have a significant number of such "authoritarian dead-enders" in our own group as well, the only difference being the flavor of Kool-Aid they drink.

And that is even more depressing.

Seriously, even my local GOP party members are willing to debate the MERITS of issues, and can even see (and virtually concede) that leaving Iraq IS a valid Republican point, just one they are not willing to embrace [yet].

Avalon
02-06-2008, 10:05 AM
The only way Ron Paul can realistically win in a brokered convention is if 1191+ delegates are in fact trojan horse delegates loyal to Ron Paul. At this point, I'd like to know the truth about how many trojan horse delegates we actually have. Otherwise, this talk about a brokered convention is bullshit. Two points:

1. It's not about what we currently have, it's about what we can get. Many states have not yet had their caucuses and we still have more hardcore supporters than any other candidate.

2. If we can simply keep the convention from nominating someone with a significant show of force (say 400 "trojan horse" delegates as you say, which is a term I don't like because we don't need to announce our support for anyone else, we just have to turn out every friend, family member, neighbor, or anyone sympathetic enough to be persuaded to take an hour or two away to help us caucus), the revolution will be televised (it will be a major upset) and we'll still be in the race and allowed to stay on the ballot in TX etc.

I too would like to know our numbers/chances before sinking tons of time and money into winning 69 of Georgia's 72 delegates. Please help me by telling me the status of other states here: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=113352

WRellim
02-06-2008, 08:23 PM
Two points:

1. It's not about what we currently have, it's about what we can get. Many states have not yet had their caucuses and we still have more hardcore supporters than any other candidate.

2. If we can simply keep the convention from nominating someone with a significant show of force (say 400 "trojan horse" delegates as you say, which is a term I don't like because we don't need to announce our support for anyone else, we just have to turn out every friend, family member, neighbor, or anyone sympathetic enough to be persuaded to take an hour or two away to help us caucus), the revolution will be televised (it will be a major upset) and we'll still be in the race and allowed to stay on the ballot in TX etc.

I too would like to know our numbers/chances before sinking tons of time and money into winning 69 of Georgia's 72 delegates. Please help me by telling me the status of other states here: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=113352

Bumped because I *LURVE* that term... "Trojan Delegates"

Almost as much as I like the phrase "groundhog mentality" (referring to people who only "pop-up" ever four or eight years for some maverick indy-type presidential candidate, and then go to ground for the rest of their life.

People got to stay ABOVE ground and get active in their local party functions and positions.

Bradley in DC
02-06-2008, 10:58 PM
but stop the stupid Trojan silliness.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=114317

crazyfacedjenkins
02-06-2008, 11:01 PM
in what situation will have to occur for a victory in the republican party???


is there really a chance at a brokered convention...

paul only having 16 delegates and everyone else 300+
will this effect us???

what is about to happen?

no chance, we need to start small, president is way too ambitious

Shaun
02-06-2008, 11:27 PM
ABSOLUTELY AND TOTALLY NO CHANCE! UNDERSTOOD?
Anyone at this point, seriously suggesting that RP will get the nomination is almost certainly operating with a low IQ
Tell you what: I'll be ANYONE on here $10,000 that he will not be the nominee. I'll offer odds of 10-1 and I'll place 100k in escrow as soon as someone takes the bet. You'll place your 10k in escrow with the same law firm in Los Angeles and we'll pay the bet out minus the legal fees of $300 after the convention.
How's that? I can place the 100k within a week, if you can get the 10k together, let's do it!
I hope the above puts an end to the madness.
Go get a girlfriend it's almost as good an addiction...
Shaun.

nc4rp
02-06-2008, 11:28 PM
it is possible that:

1. in a brokered convention, enough GOPers who hate each other vote AGAINST the others,

2. By then (SEVEN MONTHS FROM NOW) the delegates may have heard about Paul and have INCREASING support resulting in enough delegate majorities and 1191 delegates in a brokered convention.

it is possible, albeit improbable.

i'd bet that huck/romney/mcain will negotiate their delegates to keep Paul out, but its up to the delegates ultimately how they cast their vote. you cannot absolutely predict how that would play out, especially givin Pauls true conservative positions that people could possibly still be awakened to.

garrettwombat
02-06-2008, 11:34 PM
can you really be a Trojan horse delegate or will you get in serious trouble for this or not be able to vote against your candidate anyways?

Avalon
02-06-2008, 11:47 PM
Again, DO NOT BE A TROJAN HORSE DELEGATE. Instead, simply bring every friend, family, or person you can drag off the street to come vote for you and your buddies at the caucus/convention. You may have to admit you're for Ron Paul, you might not. If we bring a majority, we sweep it.