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JordanQ72
02-06-2008, 01:07 AM
Well, it seems like Romney's California plan failed miserably. I ran down the totals and it looks like McCain has around 800 delegates, not sure why CNN and the like are only reporting slightly above 400.

JordanQ72
02-06-2008, 01:17 PM
Man, these MSM statisticians are so out of it. I would have called a vast majority of the outstanding delegates a long time ago, but 12 hours later and they're still tiptoeing around in so many states.

pengieh
02-06-2008, 03:24 PM
The problem is in many states delegates aren't awarded on a winner take all or county system. In California it is done by congressional districts, which make it harder to determine quickly as districts can cross multiple counties or only a portion of a county.

ronpaulyourmom
02-06-2008, 06:58 PM
McCain currently has somewhere between 700-750 delegates. Most of the remaining states are not winner take all. McCain is likely to win at least 200 more delegates over the next seven days. On March 4th he will either secure enough delegates to win the whole thing, or be so close that the media will say that it's over before the final eleven states even vote. (none of which are winner-take-all)

Everybody looking to a brokered convention to save us isn't looking at the situation objectively...

Rede
02-06-2008, 07:35 PM
McCain currently has somewhere between 700-750 delegates. Most of the remaining states are not winner take all. McCain is likely to win at least 200 more delegates over the next seven days. On March 4th he will either secure enough delegates to win the whole thing, or be so close that the media will say that it's over before the final eleven states even vote. (none of which are winner-take-all)

Everybody looking to a brokered convention to save us isn't looking at the situation objectively...

McCain just has to have a meltdown. He is McCain, so don't rule it out.

clouds
02-06-2008, 07:39 PM
and he is the frontrunner...

Xyrus2
02-06-2008, 11:44 PM
I hadn't checked the delegate totals until just recently. Ouch.

My guess is that Huckabee will be dropping out soon, and throwing his support behind McCain. Romney will probably stay in it for while longer, plus he's got the money for it. But even he did drop out, he would throw his support behind McCain.

From a purely mathematical standpoint, there won't be a brokered convention. At least, not one where Paul will have any sway.

Let's look at this realistically. McCain has over 700 delegates. Huck and Romney make up another 500. Even if we won all the other states, we would still need Huck or Romney's delegates.

But let's say we aren't there to win the nomination and we're just there to bargain. Even if we won the rest of the states, in order to bargain we need Huck or Romney's delegates.

Now I doubt Huck is going to last until the convention, but Romney has some staying power (thanks to his personal fortune). In order for Paul to hold sway the delegates would have to break down in a specific way from here on out. Huckabee is either going to throw his support behind McCain or Romney. If the votes continue to break as they have been, McCain will win without a brokered convention. If McCain starts to slide, and Romney picks up more delegates+Huck's then it may result in a situation where Paul would have the deciding delegates. The chances of this are very unlikely.

Other situations that are unlikely is having a 3 way split, having the candidates dump their delegates to Paul, and Paul winning the rest of the states with a 4 way split.

Considering the states that we have left, and the way the votes have been shaking out for us, it seems statistically extremely unlikely that a brokered convention will happen where Paul will have the power play.

There's still a chance for a brokered convention to happen but Paul won't be a power player, and again it is statistically unlikely given the current voter breakdown. Especially with the media giving the proverbial hand job to McCain.

So here's how I see this finishing up:

1. Huckabee will probably stay in until Feb 12th, and then drop and give support to McCain.
2. Romney may stay in until March 4th, then drop and give his support to McCain, giving McCain the outright majority.
3. Democrats annihilate McCain and hand a crushing defeat to the Republicans in November.
4. We shrug and say, "Told you so!" and continue spreading the good word.

None of this changes my commitment to the movement. I'm still voting for Paul. I'm still working to get more votes. However, the hopes of a brokered convention (especially one where Paul delegates have a pivotal role) is not likely to happen. Candidates are going to start cutting their losses pretty soon and the candidates have made it clear who they would support (Huck getting all smoochy with McCain and Romney laughing at Paul).

Keep fighting. That's all we can do.

~X~

josephadel_3
02-07-2008, 12:13 AM
Why do you think Huck will drop out after February 12th? He just did considerably well in the south.

LukeNM
02-07-2008, 12:27 AM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R

John McCain
Pledged: 663
Unpledged RNC*: 17
Total: 680

Don't know where you are getting 800 from -- stop fluffing the numbers. Who do you think you are the Old Media!

ronpaulyourmom
02-07-2008, 12:48 AM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R

John McCain
Pledged: 663
Unpledged RNC*: 17
Total: 680

Don't know where you are getting 800 from -- stop fluffing the numbers. Who do you think you are the Old Media!

Not all the results are in yet. 700+ estimates take into account the likely official total once the final results are in. Other websites hit you with different numbers, try... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html

JordanQ72
02-07-2008, 11:33 AM
Don't know where you are getting 800 from -- stop fluffing the numbers.

:rolleyes:

Like I said in other posts, the media seems to be REALLY conservative in their delegate estimates. Look at California for example, they still haven't given out over 50 of the delegates.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#CA

I looked at the total breakdown, no one besides McCain and Romney are getting delegates from there. And Romney did extremely poorly in terms of widespread support as I mentioned in the 1st post here. He MIGHT pick up 6 more delegates there, but over 40 are going to McCain.

So tack on at least 40 to the CNN estimate, and you get to 720 already. There are other states they have yet to distribute as well. I had a list before, but I'm not at my home computer right now, but off the top of my head Georgia has 20 or so outstanding, and I believe McCain is getting a sizable chunk of those on the district by district basis.

JosephTheLibertarian
02-07-2008, 11:44 AM
and he is the frontrunner...

the media pushed him. He was tied with Ron Paul in the polls a few months ago.