ghemminger
08-08-2007, 03:30 PM
http://www.chrisbrunner.com/2007/08/08/support-for-giuliani-falls-support-for-paul-on-the-rise/
Support for Giuliani Falls, Support for Paul on the Rise
Intrade, the prediction market that yielded more accurate results than any polls in the 2004 Presidential race, has shown a three point drop in the last week for Giuliani and an in increase in support for Ron Paul over the same time frame.
Contracts traded in the prediction market reflect confidence in who will win the GOP nomination. While telephone polls include only people who have land lines and voted Republican in the last election, prediction markets are open to everyone and respond in real-time to changes in opinion. Telephone polls also provide no incentive for honesty or accuracy, while the profitability of prediction market trades hinge upon the accuracy of predictions. For these reasons, I prefer to follow prediction markets instead of watching polls.
What I've observed is that the market's confidence in Ron Paul has risen fairly consistently, while support for other candidates, Giuliani and Thompson for example, hit their peaks mid-July and have been falling since. Check out a long-term comparison between Ron Paul and Giuliani:
Thompson and Giuliani Hit Their Peaks In July
This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 8th, 2007 at 1:47 pm and is filed under Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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Support for Giuliani Falls, Support for Paul on the Rise
Intrade, the prediction market that yielded more accurate results than any polls in the 2004 Presidential race, has shown a three point drop in the last week for Giuliani and an in increase in support for Ron Paul over the same time frame.
Contracts traded in the prediction market reflect confidence in who will win the GOP nomination. While telephone polls include only people who have land lines and voted Republican in the last election, prediction markets are open to everyone and respond in real-time to changes in opinion. Telephone polls also provide no incentive for honesty or accuracy, while the profitability of prediction market trades hinge upon the accuracy of predictions. For these reasons, I prefer to follow prediction markets instead of watching polls.
What I've observed is that the market's confidence in Ron Paul has risen fairly consistently, while support for other candidates, Giuliani and Thompson for example, hit their peaks mid-July and have been falling since. Check out a long-term comparison between Ron Paul and Giuliani:
Thompson and Giuliani Hit Their Peaks In July
This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 8th, 2007 at 1:47 pm and is filed under Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
Name (required)
Mail (will not be published) (required)
Website