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View Full Version : The Market is Going to Get SMOKED Tomorrow Morning




RPinUptownChi
02-05-2008, 11:53 PM
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alexpasch
02-05-2008, 11:55 PM
I think of the people making money in this market, 80% are RP supporters lol.

Kludge
02-05-2008, 11:56 PM
Not like it didn't get smoked today. Ron needs to get all over the TV tomorrow and talk about monetary policy and how if we had McCain's 'Friends' in charge of the economy we wouldn't need any more enemies...

I'd rather have lunch with an Iranian mullah than one of John McCain punk advisors anyday...

These asshats on Wall Street want another intermeeting rate cut in 30 day Fed Funds now...Superinflation here we come...

Forecast for the next president:

Approval ratings in the low 20's and a moderate chance of impeachment.

Good job Dubya.

RPinUptownChi
02-06-2008, 12:08 AM
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Ronin
02-06-2008, 12:15 AM
If they go BK do I still have to pay my mortgage? :D

alexpasch
02-06-2008, 12:17 AM
If they go BK do I still have to pay my mortgage? :D

Yes (I'm pretty sure you knew that and were being sarcastic but just in case...)

alexpasch
02-06-2008, 12:28 AM
I think you are probably right, actually. I've always loved being bearish on equities. Commodities are a legitimate trade but stocks are kind of a scam imo... you can still make money in stocks though.

I think Countrywide (CFC) is going to get annihilated on Thursday when their CEO Angelo Mozilo goes before Congress with the ex-head of Merrill...$5.00 Feb08 Puts are still offered at $0.10, they are good for 2.5 more weeks...If I had an options account I'd buy a 100 lot anyhow, make it worth watching them grill Mozilo on Thursday...

With those options you're basically getting about 15 to 1 on the stock price going down by 50% in the next two weeks. I don't think its totally unreasonable that Countrywide could go BK depending on if credit insurance companies start getting toasted. We'll see...

Buffett is playing this credit insurance debacle wonderfully given his new company. I made lots of money shorting CFC in '07. Play is over though now as far as I'm concerned. I wouldn't be buying options in this market, volatilities have been bid up across the board. I'm just shorting consumer discretionaries with high P/Es (eg. AMZN) and long commodities (eg. GLD, DBA, UCR).

scotto2008
02-06-2008, 12:40 AM
Forecast for the next president:

Approval ratings in the low 20's and a moderate chance of impeachment.

Good job Dubya.

Maybe it's better if we don't win. Let the DemoPubs try to steer pass this iceberg.

Then we can come in with Rand to save the day.

AlbemarleNC0003
02-06-2008, 12:41 AM
Countrywide has been bought by Bank of America. They'll be fine.

scotto2008
02-06-2008, 12:48 AM
Speaking of eliminating the Fed --

"The Bubble Man"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3peAYJSJSg


"Who can make money out of thin air?
Why, the Bubble Man can, but buyers beware
One day your dollarís worth less than a dime
Cause bubbles all pop, itís just a matter of time"

RPinUptownChi
02-06-2008, 12:52 AM
Countrywide has been bought by Bank of America. They'll be fine.


is that a done deal? i don't think CFC would still be trading independently if it were. I believe that is the talk. maybe its time to buy B of A puts. countrywide is a pile of toxic crap debt. They still have exposure on their balance sheet for sure. They are taking like 20 cents on the dollar from mortgage brokers on properties where owners defaulted in the first 12 months of loans down in florida. It can get worse.

also u guys this is like buying lottery tickets. You get 100 lot @ $0.10 of the $5.00 Feb 08 puts. Say credit insurers take a hit, stock goes to $3.50 on some market meltdown. That is $14,000 profit and you only risked $1,000. If shit really goes bad and the commercial paper market totally melts down it could be even better.

AlbemarleNC0003
02-06-2008, 12:54 AM
is that a done deal? i don't think CFC would still be trading independently if it were. I believe that is the talk. maybe its time to buy B of A puts.

That's the latest I've read.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aqKE9kRcKDEw

scotto2008
02-06-2008, 12:55 AM
Japan's Nikkei down 626 (4.7%)

RPinUptownChi
02-06-2008, 01:02 AM
So B of A is paying $7.16 a share? That might be the most retarded move of the year so far.


Ken Lewis, Bank of America's chief executive officer, is doubling down on the U.S. mortgage market as home sales fall for a third straight year, the worst streak since 1982. The takeover of Calabasas, California-based Countrywide increases Bank of America's dependence on the slowing domestic economy, where it gets more than 85 percent of its revenue, and follows a $2 billion investment in Countrywide last August.

``I hope Bank of America isn't throwing good money after bad,'' said Eric Schopf, a fund manager at Baltimore-based Hardesty Capital Management LLC, which invests almost $700 million and owns 216,000 Bank of America shares, in a Bloomberg TV interview. ``They struck a deal that wasn't very attractive. Hopefully they can get it right the second time around.''

Countrywide stock fell 18 percent in 4:17 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading to $6.33, after soaring 51 percent yesterday when the Wall Street Journal reported the negotiations. Bank of America lost 80 cents to $38.50 and set a four-year low of $37.16 during the day.



looks to me like the deal is not fully done yet. That is a tender offer. Eventually holders of CFC will get cash or B of A stock. It also looks to me like everyone who is still stuck with that toxic shit is hitting the B of A bid.

i still like the CFC teeny puts in Feb, huge amount of gamma there. B of A is toast too, the last two banks to 'double down' on their shitty subprime bets were Citigroup and Merrill Lynch. Goldman dumped all of their inventory on them, went even shorter via the credit default swap market and assfucked everyone in the asset backed market last summer.

while we're at it i think beans and wheat are going to get a big pop after the first planting report. I think beans will go to $30/bushel at some point this year. Remember when crude was $15/barrel?

RPinUptownChi
02-06-2008, 01:03 AM
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gracebkr
02-06-2008, 01:16 AM
I can't wait for the market to crash. All my prayers are directed towards preserving my family and their lives, then I move out to friends, then to friends and families of friends, then to Americans, then to the world, but when I wish, My first biggest wish is we win, my second is the market crashes. Just to teach everyone a lesson, seems they need one.

zardiw
02-06-2008, 01:20 AM
Dow dropped 300 something today. It's on shaky ground. Maybe a nice crash will wake people up.........z

RPinUptownChi
02-06-2008, 01:25 AM
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Ex Post Facto
02-06-2008, 01:31 AM
http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/

Check out the world markets at this moment.

RPinUptownChi
02-06-2008, 01:32 AM
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Ex Post Facto
02-06-2008, 01:35 AM
Will be hard for China to bail us out anymore, their own economy is going in the toilet.

IamRealPerson
02-06-2008, 02:11 AM
The last I heard Chinas economy has been growing by double digits the last 5 years and a slowdown would still be 7-10% growth. I am not worried one bit about their economy. Now ours, o my

Molly1
02-06-2008, 02:13 AM
Market smoked tomorrow?

I think it's time for some straight talk from Mccain on what is causing this.

He's the expert on the economy, isn't he?

syborius
02-06-2008, 02:13 AM
Not like it didn't get smoked today. Ron needs to get all over the TV tomorrow and talk about monetary policy and how if we had McCain's 'Friends' in charge of the economy we wouldn't need any more enemies...

I'd rather have lunch with an Iranian mullah than one of John McCain punk advisors anyday...

These asshats on Wall Street want another intermeeting rate cut in 30 day Fed Funds now...Superinflation here we come...



lot of good that will do, nobody understands what the fuck he's talking about, and or, they don't give a shit.

Renegades
02-06-2008, 02:16 AM
Market smoked tomorrow?

I think it's time for some straight talk from Mccain on what is causing this.

He's the expert on the economy, isn't he?

All this straight talk is cracking me up...