Primaries Guidance

[Jennifer Reynolds]

Can we please make this a sticky?

I ran into this on a comments section. I think we should all take it to heart.

Please don't be offended, this information is invaluable.

1st post:
Here’s the problem really:

Ron Paul’s supporters are acting like this is a peace protest. They are wasting every bit of their energy on advertising Ron Paul to the general population. An average of 12% of registered voters vote in their State’s primaries while there was about a 67% turnout last general election.

This strategy is the equivalent of shooting a shotgun at an apple from 100 yards away. It isn’t going to have much affect on the apple and is alot of wasted ammunition.

If they could just understand that they have all the time in the world to do these rallies, etc.. NEXT YEAR when the 67% of voters matter. It is completely moronic to do this right now.

We need to target the 12% primary voters and the GOP parties in our counties and states. We need to find the delegates, talk to our representatives (they are ’super-delegates”)

There will be ONE republican and ONE democrat on the ticket in Nov. 08, if we don’t make sure that one republican is Ron Paul, it doesn’t matter how many people want to vote for him.

Stop the rallying, stop the blog blasting, stop wasting your money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Get out there and do what it really takes.

Start targetting those that choose the nomination. 30 thousand plus volunteers across this country and we can’t get this done? How many of the other candidates have this many volunteers?

Ron Paul will win once we start acting like this is a political campaign and not a peace rally.

After Ron Paul gets the nomination, THEN we spend our energy on reaching the general masses. THEN he will get ALL of the (republican candidate’s) media attention because he will be THE only republican candidate. You have 7 months left at best to do this, and you need to get this done before the rest of the candidates do it.

30 thousand volunteers and they are wasting their time blogging and rallying. Wake up, people!



Second Post

I am an organizer for the Ron Paul campaign and am tied very closely to it.

A group with 155 volunteers gets activity out of maybe 10-15. Where are they? BLOGGING! When you ask them to do the tasks important to win an election, where are they? When you ask them stand around and hold rallies? Well, ok, then maybe they will show up.

While all the stuff you cited is definitely awesome and great news for the people that already follow him. Has it raised Dr. Paul in the polls? Has it gotten him “top-tier” status in the papers? Has it blew away his incoming donations? No. It hasn’t. But of course, that is the evil medias fault, not ours, right?

30,000 volunteers across America and the local GOP and delegates still ask us ‘who is Ron Paul?’

All your blogging and all your rallying might make 30 million people want to vote for the good doctor, but if doesn’t end up on the ballot, they won’t be able to.

And attacking him? He is a political candidate!!!! What political candidate DOESN’T get attacked? You’re happy when they do it to the others, you know. The more they attack him, the more relevent he has become.

Again, this isn’t a protest. This is a political campaign. Ever wonder why the Dean phenomenon never went anywhere?

You are wasting your time.

Call me wrong all you want. If you don’t step out of your comfort zones and do what needs to be done, you will have only yourselves to blame.


Third post by me.



To the person above who says the supporters are doing it all wrong. How do you target the 12 percent who vote in the primaries?

Seriously.

Is there a way? If so, what is it? We need your help.

Scott, we are like a group of kids out here all drawing on the wall because no one thought to give us paper. We don’t know how to win a campaign. But if you do, why keep it to yourself? Many of us would LOVE to help, but we don’t know how, we don’t get our inquiries returned and no one will guide us or tell us what needs to be done. If you really are working for the campaign, quit whining and come over to the RPforums and tell us what to do! And How to do it.

Saying we need to target the 12% who vote is like telling us that we need to win. No kidding Sherlock. You forgot the how. Let us in on the secret. If we need to do something now FREAKING TELL US!!!!!!!
Comment by Jennifer — August 8, 2007 @ 7:53 am

Fourth and most important answer we can all get:
Primary voters:
Call your county clerk or whoever handles voter registration. Purchase a list of registered voters that voted in the last two republican primaries. Write, call, or better yet, VISIT them with Ron Paul fliers. Don’t be afraid to talk to them one on one and explain why you need their help.

Delegates:
While you are at the county clerk or whatever (it varies by state) ask them also for a list of delegates. Repeat above procedure.

Endorsements:
Call, write, fax, or visit your local representatives and ask for their endorsement for Ron Paul.

Special interest groups:
Gun clubs, voter advocacy groups, civil liberties groups, constitutionalists, taxpayer’s unions. etc.. Find them, canvass them. Get their endorsement.

Visit and join your local GOP. Attend their meetings and events, donate, volunteer to help them. Let them know Ron Paul brought you to the party. The huge infusion of new members will DEFINITELY get their attention. Do not protest them, do not come in with an attitude, do not threaten them that you are only in the party as long as Ron Paul runs. Be their friends and neighbors.

Look up your state election laws and understand how the primaries/caucuses/conventions work in your state. Work within the system.


I think this is wonderful. Seriously. It sounds like the campaign is as frustrated with us as we have been with them. Finally some direction. Can we make this a sticky? I may be naive, but this seems like a winning strategy to me. Am I wrong? Or is this the key to winning?

[synapz]

bump

[Original_Intent]

My only disagreement with the above is this.

Yes only 12% vote in the primaries, however, 100% of the people are POTENTIAL primary voters. (OK at leat the ones over 18 in January and legal citizens)

WE have all seen that Ron Paul gets people fired up that have never been involved in a campaign before. So we know that getting his name out to ANYONE if they will just listen to his message there is a good chance we have them.

So I think some of the above criticism is not exactly accurate.

I agree that targetting the previous primary voters and ESPECIALLY delegates is the way to go. And I understand the frustration of being in a 100+ member meetup and having 10 -15 show up. But I don't think the "peace rallies" and blogging are a complete waste of time, and I disagree that it is a good internal campaign strategy to dismiss as worthless the efforts (whatever they are) of volunteers. If blogging and peace rallies are all they will commit to do BETTER THAT THAN NOTHING!

That is just my two cents, you probably have more experience with campaigning than I do, and I am not saying you are wrong. I will say that I think the Ron Paul campaign is probably a unique political event in our lifetimes and things are not going to proceed according to the normal rules of engagement.

[synapz]

Keep in mind, getting someone that was going to vote in the primary for someone else to vote for Dr. Paul is like TWO votes for Paul, because it takes one away from the competition, as well.

[Tsoman]

.......


Before I heard of Ron Paul I wasn't even registered to vote. Now I registered republican and I am going to vote in the primaries.

[LibertyEagle]

Seems to me that it is good advice, Jennifer. We need to get more strategic in our actions.

[UCFGavin]

I disagree about the 12%. I know myself and quite a few members of my meetup group and friends that will be voting for RP have never voted in a primary before.

[stevedasbach]

This is half right -- half wrong. However, the half-wrong part, if followed, will ensure that Paul DOESN'T get the nomination.

Just because people didn't vote in previous Republican primaries or caucuses, doesn't mean they won't vote in this primary. IMO, the key to victory for Paul is motivating and inspiring people who are NOT traditional Republican primary voters to vote for Paul. The traditional primary voters are going to be the toughest to persuade (witness the recent survey of local Republican leaders in Iowa).

Right now, any activity that gets people in Iowa (ANY people in Iowa) motivated to go to the straw poll and vote for Paul is valuable.

[freelance]

My only disagreement is that those who voted Republican in previous elections have sipped from the neocon Koolaid. They're not exactly low-lying fruit!

[specsaregood]

This is where those comments came from:
http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/08/07/is-ron-paul-basically-just-herding-cats/

[beermotor]

I think this is much ado about nothing. Just motivate the masses. They will find a way to the polls, rain or shine. The only problem is that some people want to control the movement, and they should just ease up and let it go where it will, do what it will, be what it will.

The Message is paramount.

[cac1963]

This is half right -- half wrong. However, the half-wrong part, if followed, will ensure that Paul DOESN'T get the nomination.

Just because people didn't vote in previous Republican primaries or caucuses, doesn't mean they won't vote in this primary. IMO, the key to victory for Paul is motivating and inspiring people who are NOT traditional Republican primary voters to vote for Paul. The traditional primary voters are going to be the toughest to persuade (witness the recent survey of local Republican leaders in Iowa).

Right now, any activity that gets people in Iowa (ANY people in Iowa) motivated to go to the straw poll and vote for Paul is valuable.

I agree with this one the most. Paul's support is strongest in the leaners rather than the party activists who reliably vote in primaries. We're generating an influx of new voters to counter those 12% whose votes will be split 9 different ways. The more outsiders we bring into the primaries, the better our chances at further diluting their already puny influence.

And from what we've all seen so far, Paul's message fires up people who've never cared before, on an unprecedented level.

[inibo]

Visit and join your local GOP. Attend their meetings and events, donate, volunteer to help them. Let them know Ron Paul brought you to the party. The huge infusion of new members will DEFINITELY get their attention. Do not protest them, do not come in with an attitude, do not threaten them that you are only in the party as long as Ron Paul runs. Be their friends and neighbors.

We need to keep doing what we are doing and work the local party committees. They will get on board when they start seeing the new blood that is being injected into the party. As some one said yesterday, we are the new Republican party base.

[nexalacer]

This is important cuz I've talked to people who don't even know they CAN vote in the primaries. We've got to get the people that WILL vote to vote for RP.

[Lesgov]

He's right about the "shotgun" analogy, we're not hitting the apple but we're hitting all the leaves around it.
I say keep doing what we're doing. I've had much better luck selling Ron Paul to others rather than your typical Republican.
A couple that I've known for a long time(they're in their 60's) have never registered or voted. They will be voting this primary for the first time in their life.
I'm not saying give up on Republicans, but it's a hard job to win them over. Hopefully many of them will come around on their own.

[Hurricane Bruiser]

The "noise" that people like us create helps boost the profile of Ron Paul and without that "noise" there would NOT be more press time for him. The small percentage of the population that vote in the primaries IS key, but even more important is bringing in new people that don't tow the party line. Just my opinion

[Wendi]

I think all of the various strategies have their place. The biggest problem is sitting around talking about doing - instead of doing.

And I wish the organizers of some of the meetups would seriously consider the point about real life vs. the internet.

[Badger Paul]

For RP to win you have to expand the the pool of primary voters not shrink it.

That's what Jesse Ventura did to win in Minnesota and RP can do the same.

[Gee]

Here is a website which lists places where we might find some likely voters:
http://www.gunshows-usa.com/

[libertarian4321]

I think stevedasbach is right.

Sure you want to get that "12%" if you can, but I think its going to be hard to convince someone who voted for George Bush 4 and 8-years ago, and is likely a "hard core" supporter of the party's current policies, to vote for Ron Paul.

We will probably do better by bringing in people who don't normally vote in the Republican Primaries- moderate/fiscally conservative Republicans (the ones who looked at George Bush and just stayed home), libertarians/Libertarians, Independents, and even some Democrats.

From what I'm seeing here locally in Texas, a state with open primaries, there are a LOT of people who will be voting for Ron Paul in the Republican primary who have either never voted in a Republican primary or haven't done so in a long time (I last voted in a Republican Primary in 1984).

[JosephTheLibertarian]

Dr. Paul has been getting 12-15% consistently in other states, so there's no reason to believe that he won't here.

[1000-points-of-fright]

Why stop at lists of Republican primary voters and delegates? Get a Democrat list too!

[mport1]

Please sticky.

[monotony]

No one that I have talked to about Paul has voted previously in the primary, including me. I don't think this is as important as the original post suggested. I am actually encouraged that only 12% show up for the primaries because the more people we recruit that usually don't vote (much less in primaries) the better chance we have.

Is it more difficult to get more than 12% to show up and vote or to change that 12%'s minds? With Paul's message, I think it's easier to bring new primary voters than to change already entrenched politically active neocons.

[slantedview]

I agree with all of the information in the fourth post, particularly.

Finding the actual primary voters and delegates, and talking to interest groups to gain their endorsements is an excellent use of time and resources. I'd agree thats focused attention like this can make a big difference.

[Ninja Homer]

For RP to win you have to expand the the pool of primary voters not shrink it.

That's what Jesse Ventura did to win in Minnesota and RP can do the same.

I agree. I think Jesse Ventura's campaign is the best model to look at for comparison to Ron Paul's campaign. There are many similarities, but it's on a much bigger scale.
Read this article (http://www.salon.com/news/1998/11/06newsb.html) and this article (http://slashdot.org/features/98/11/13/1152240.shtml).

It's still very important to hit up the established primary voters though.

[Jennifer Reynolds]

Look, all, as I said in the beginning of the post. Please don't be offended. He was venting. As we all are. But that does not mean that he does not know what he is talking about.

When calling Iowans I had a much better chance winning over the Republicans than the Independents. It really surprised me. I was expecting things to be the other way around. But the Inds are so ticked off at ALL Republicans they hung up on me left and right. Occasionally, I got one or two to talk to me, but it was hard.

Marketing works for a reason. Because people tend to behave in patterns. I agree, we are getting a lot of people motivated. But, yes, how many will vote in the primaries? How many know they CAN vote in the primaries? How many will register properly on time? Doesn't it make sense to target the folks that are voters first, and then go after the rest?

I am not saying stop the signage. I think name recognition is important and I think the coordinator up top was using a bit of hyperbole when he said our work is doing nothing. But there is no question we could be more organized and hence, effective.

So let's focus on trying to do what he says. I agree about getting the list of all parties who voted in the primaries. Don't forget the libertarians. (Was there a libertarian primary?) Either way, he has some great ideas. We are not professional campaign managers here. I am so grateful for some direction from a real professional! And from the campaign that knows where its weaknesses are.

But I love our name recognition drives as well. It is hard to sell a person on a guy they have never heard of. And I gotta tell ya, out of over 1000 calls in Iowa, I may have hit 8 who had heard of him, and this is guessing high. I converted quite a few - 50 or so, but that is nothing out of 1000.

Don't forget to target the delegates too! Apparently they have super voting power.

Does anyone know why? Can someone explain it to me? Is it kind of like the electoral college? Can the delegates ignore all the voters in the state and get some other guy elected? Do they have to follow what the majority did? How does it all work?

Thanks ahead of time.

[paulitics]

fact: 75% of Ron Paul supporters never voted in a primary.

[foofighter20x]

Stickied...

And changed the title. ;)

[USPatriot36]

Super delegates have nothing to do with the electoral college. It is something that is done by the parties. There are many reasons they have them. First it basically guarantees that all their high-ranking elected officials are at the national nomination ceremony.

Secondly, states get extra (super) delegates because that state has elected more members of its party as Governor, House or Senator, and therefore that state is more important. Another way to say that is Texas has more influence on selecting the Republican nominee than New York because Texas is a Republican stronghold and New York isn't.

Bear in mind that for most states the Super Delegates(and all delegates) are required to vote the way the state voters did for the first couple of ballots. So if Ron Paul has a clear majority, the actual delegates are not as important as they are if there isn't a clear winner.

If we get 49 percent of the delegates and Giuliani gets 40 and Romney gets 11, you can bet on the third ballot, the establishment candidates will unite. Even if we get 54 percent, there is plenty of reason to expect some backroom deal will steal the nomination. So we need to win the nomination decisively.

[Rachel01]

Some of you are worried about converting neocons. It's not that hard. I used to be a neocon. My cousin converted me fairly quickly. Of course, she was my cousin, but even if she had not been, I'm sure I would have converted as long as the person used the same facts. Notice: facts. Giving people the reasons and facts you base your opinions on are important.

If I can give anyone a tip on garnering support for Ron Paul, it's this: go door to door. If someone telephones me about politics, I may listen for a couple minutes to be polite (I'll flat out hang the phone up if it's a recording), but if you come to my door and I have an open agenda for that day, we can talk as long as you have something to say.

Also, someone mentioned making sure you get to people in enough time for them to register. I wanted to say this: By federal law, a state cannot take longer than 30 days to process someone's voter registration.

[Thom1776]

He does not know what he's talking about.

Who cares about the 12% of TRADITIONAL primary voters? We are recruiting an entire ARMY of NEW primary voters to overwhelm that 12%. Besides, SOME of that 12% will be voting for Paul, anyway.

We are NOT wasting our time. We are NOT wasting our money.

What happens Saturday at Ames will be a good indicator of how effective we have been.

BTW, here in Connecticut, we only have less than THREE MONTHS left to make sure that registered Democrats RE-register as Republican or they will NOT be able to vote in the primary next year.

So, no, we do NOT have all the time in the world to do this next year. We have to do this NOW, THIS YEAR.

Ron Paul is NOT a traditional candidate, this is NOT a traditional campaign, we are NOT traditional supporters and the people we are targeting are NOT traditional voters.

That is why when we win, the TRADITIONAL media, politicians and the WHOLE WORLD will be SHOCKED at the outcome.

But when you are ready to start helping us NEXT YEAR, we will be happy to have one more body with us.

Unsticky this thread.

[Bradley in DC]

Bear in mind that for most states the Super Delegates(and all delegates) are required to vote the way the state voters did for the first couple of ballots. So if Ron Paul has a clear majority, the actual delegates are not as important as they are if there isn't a clear winner.

The Super delegates are NOT bound like the elected delegates, that is the point. On a side note, each state gets three "party leader" slots among its non-elected, bonus, superdelegates. One is for the state party chair. The other two go to the National Committeeman and National Committeewoman to the RNC (but, ex officio, are voting delegates at the presidential nominating convention). So, anyone interested in helping with my plot to take over the party and go after as many delegates for Dr. Paul as possible, PM me. We're looking for the man and woman in every state with the best "party creds" (county party chairman, etc.) that supports the good doctor.

[Bradley in DC]

Dr. Paul has been getting 12-15% consistently in other states, so there's no reason to believe that he won't here.

Where is Dr. Paul getting that kind of support? Based on what? I've not seen anything like that anywhere (yet!).

[ChaseEricTheRed]

I realize many of you are concerned about the primaries. I was not even going to vote this year, let alone in the primaries. Now I am a registered Republican for the great Dr.No. Keep in mind that there are a lot of people in this same camp.

[tsetsefly]

can you vote if you reside outside the US during the primaries? even if you are/where a recent state resident?

[Jennifer Reynolds]

Yes, you can mail your vote in for the primaries. You have to request to vote by mail. Contact your Secretary of State, ask for the voting department and find out what you have to do to request the mail in ballot. Do it EARLY. I can take a long time for them to process that request. I don't know how long, but don't wait. Do it tomorrow.

[xita]

I Totally Disagree with the target the 12% of primary voters approach. I haven't voted or registered to vote in 11 years - and I'll be voting for Paul. My brother couldn't care less about politics cuz there has been no choice - i showed him the Google Video and he'll be voting for Paul in the Primaries.

I sincerely believe that your assessment is bass akwards. We should try to get 7% of the population that normally wouldn't vote to win this primary. The 12% that vote now are the idiots that gave our current mess.

[tsetsefly]

Yes, you can mail your vote in for the primaries. You have to request to vote by mail. Contact your Secretary of State, ask for the voting department and find out what you have to do to request the mail in ballot. Do it EARLY. I can take a long time for them to process that request. I don't know how long, but don't wait. Do it tomorrow.

I have to register now then, cause I leave in a week! The thing is my state is one of the last states to have the primary, texas, so I was waiting to see how paul did in the first ones to see if it was worthwhile getting that dreaded republican label,haha

btw, where do I even sign up, to the republican party...

[Akus]

Call your county clerk or whoever handles voter registration. Purchase a list of registered voters that voted in the last two republican primaries. Write, call, or better yet, VISIT them with Ron Paul fliers. Don’t be afraid to talk to them one on one and explain why you need their help.


Jennifer, could you explain which one of the three would be the best approach. I am all for knocking on doors and letting people know of Ron Paul, my only concern is that the police will be on our asses like we're some shady vacuum cleaner salesmen.

I can feel it now, all the unnecessary harassment about solitors' permit or some crap like that, even though we solicit no money and sell no product.

I'm all ears.

[shadowhooch]

The Super delegates are NOT bound like the elected delegates, that is the point. On a side note, each state gets three "party leader" slots among its non-elected, bonus, superdelegates. One is for the state party chair. The other two go to the National Committeeman and National Committeewoman to the RNC (but, ex officio, are voting delegates at the presidential nominating convention). So, anyone interested in helping with my plot to take over the party and go after as many delegates for Dr. Paul as possible, PM me. We're looking for the man and woman in every state with the best "party creds" (county party chairman, etc.) that supports the good doctor.

I don't fully understand the commitment of delegates to the voters. But a couple of questions for my own personal education on the matter:

1) Are the actual votes publicized on who won the state?
2) Do all delegates in a state vote the same way (depending on who won the state)?
3) Is it publicized if a delegate votes against the state's popular vote?
4) If Ron Paul "won" the primaries and wasn't nominated for some creepy reason, wouldn't the Republican Party be conceeding defeat to the Democrats? I know I would be so pissed that I probably wouldn't vote in the Presential race at all.

Thanks for the info!

[NCGOPer_for_Paul]

This is from my understanding of the process and of trying to track (pencil & paper) the last three contested GOP races.


1) Are the actual votes publicized on who won the state?
Theoretically, yes. Usually, CNN or someone will calculate the delegate allocation based upon the percentage of votes won. If a candidate is entitled to more delegates than register for that candidate, those delegates go to the Convention as uncommitted. Allocated delegates can change based upon candidate status.


2) Do all delegates in a state vote the same way (depending on who won the state)?
Depends on the state's rules. Some states are a winner take all format, where all the delegates are supposed to vote for the candidate that wins the primary. However, that can change if the winner of the state primary drops out of the race prior to National. Some states allocate delegates based upon percentage. Again, these can change as well.


3) Is it publicized if a delegate votes against the state's popular vote?
How would anyone really know? There really hasn't been a contested Republican primary since 1964. Most times the nominee is known prior to the end of the primary season.


4) If Ron Paul "won" the primaries and wasn't nominated for some creepy reason, wouldn't the Republican Party be conceeding defeat to the Democrats? I know I would be so pissed that I probably wouldn't vote in the Presential race at all.
If he doesn't take at least 50% of the delegates, nobody would really know if anything underhanded took place.

[tsetsefly]

I have to register now then, cause I leave in a week! The thing is my state is one of the last states to have the primary, texas, so I was waiting to see how paul did in the first ones to see if it was worthwhile getting that dreaded republican label,haha

btw, where do I even sign up, to the republican party...

bump, here is my question...

[Jennifer Reynolds]

Ok, all. I guess I jumped the gun on that one. First of all getting names of folks who have voted in primaries is not easy at all, and expensive as get out. Second, I found out that the RP campaign has all that info anyway. and Third, after calling HQ today, I found out that WE SHOULD NOT BE DOING THIS. The campaign wants to make sure that they control all attempts to contact registered primary voters in the way they did with Iowa. They do not want Meetup groups going off half-cocked without campaign guidance. They also do not want this done until later. For now, as many have said, they want us to continue what we are doing with the name recognition projects.

I am sorry I started this. I thought I had reliable information. I should have double checked.

Which brings me to another point: I called my county recorder's office today to get information about voting in the primaries. I was told that AZ is now an open state and that Inds can vote for RP in the Primary. Then I called the AZ gop and they said that was only true for any primary BUT a presidential primary.

So, double check all info you get.

Please UN-STICKY THIS.