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bobbyw24
02-05-2008, 12:51 PM
http://www.libertysentinel.org/articles/2008-1/underdog.html

'Underdog' Soars to 'Top-Tier'

By Gary R. Schor, January 2008

What makes a presidential candidate a “frontrunner?” Mitt Romney has loaned a lot of money to himself. Does that make him a frontrunner? John McCain had to borrow three million dollars last month to stay in the race. Is he still a frontrunner?

Giuliani is financed by the big money politics of the status quo, and Mike Huckabee is receiving financing from long-time Clinton allies like Stephens Inc. & Tyson Foods.

Are they frontrunners?

With more donations, more straw poll victories, and more active and enthused supporters, it seems clear now that there is a new frontrunner in the race for the Republican nomination for president. His name is Dr. Ron Paul.

Call his “the little campaign that could”. Ron Paul made history (again) on December 16th, the anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, by raising over six million dollars, breaking John Kerry’s one day fundraising record set back in 2004. Kerry’s record was set the day he accepted the Democratic nomination. What makes The Tea Party numbers even that much more impressive and unprecedented is that Paul broke the record this early in the primary process. The average donation on this record setting day was an unimpressive fifty dollars; small potatoes in today’s age multimillion-dollar campaigns. But these small donations added up to big results. The Boston Tea Party fundraiser, combined with the 5th of November fundraiser, will put Ron Paul in an enviable position financially going into the early caucuses and primaries.

Paul is racking in straw poll victories at an impressive clip, even in the face of some glaring improprieties. Some of the Liberty Sentinel staff were among those who witnessed first hand how Mitt Romney “won” his victory at the Florida straw poll, even in the face of an overwhelming turnout for Paul. But why bother to call it a poll at all if attendees are allowed to vote multiple times; more accurately call it “finger calisthenics.” It was even more extreme at the California straw poll. When Ron Paul supporters showed up in mass, they simply called the election off. Even so, Paul has still won 29 straw poll victories all over the nation, and placed second or third in many more.

The one area that Ron Paul still seems to be lagging in is the media polls, conducted by the likes of Rasmussen, Gallup, and Zogby. In order to measure the significance of these polls, it is important to know how they are conducted. Many of them use miniscule samples to achieve their results. The larger the sample of a poll is, the higher the accuracy. A sample of six hundred or even a thousand people in a state like Florida, which has millions of voters, is statistically irrelevant. Also, these polls use selective qualifiers to “filter out” bad data. This process often leaves those who didn’t vote in previous Republican primaries ineligible to participate in the poll. If there is one thing for certain among Ron Paul’s supporters, it is that they come from diverse backgrounds and political ideologies. This makes disqualifying those who didn’t vote in the 2004 Republican Party primary a questionable practice where accuracy is concerned.

The campaign is finding strong support among the Republican base, but Paul also attracts libertarians, constitutionalists, Reagan Democrats, and independents. Trevor Lyman, the grassroots supporter who organized the November 5th and Boston Tea Party fundraising drives which have netted over ten million dollars in donations, has never voted before in his life.

With those numbers, it’s obvious that Mr. Lyman and people like him are a new force to be reckoned with in this election. But he still wouldn’t be considered a “likely voter” in a Gallup poll.

No campaign in recent history has motivated this level of grassroots support or encouraged this number of individuals to switch party or register for the first time. Writing his predictions down for all to see, pollster John Zogby said of Ron Paul, “He's going to do better than anyone expects. Look to Paul to climb into the double-digits in Iowa. Why? He's different, he stands out. He's against the war and he has the one in four Republicans who oppose the war all to himself. Libertarianism is hot, especially among free-market Republicans and 20-somethings. And he's an appealing sort of father figure. He's his own brand. All he needs to do is beat a couple of big names in Iowa, then New Hampshire is friendlier territory. After all, the state motto is "Live Free or Die."

Two supporters posed with signs in front of the ‘Ron Paul Blimp’ at Gainesville Regional Airport on Jan. 7. The $400,000 publicity stunt, part of the ‘Ron Paul air corps,’ was paid for by supporters independently of the campaign. The other side of the first presidential blimp in history instructs people to ‘Google Ron Paul.’

Congressman Paul is the first to admit that his grass roots campaign has achieved much of his success. “It's not a top-down organization, its sort of bottom up. All we have done at the campaign is provide the message and the message turns out to be popular."

His grassroots organization has paid for billboards, radio and television air time, and produced their own commercials. Supporters have even launched the first presidential blimp, the “Ron Paul Blimp,” which soon to be hovering at a bowl game near you.

The Internet is facilitating a rebirth of grassroots political activism that is sure to have repercussions well beyond the 2008 election. Whether or not his supporters prevail on Election Day, one thing is certain - Ron Paul is quixotic no more.




▪ 'Underdog' Soars to 'Top-Tier'
▪ 'Florida Hometown Democracy' Misleading
▪ Property Tax Reform Amendment Explained
▪ Ocala elementary student arrested for steak knife
▪ Judicial Watch: 10 Most Corrupt Politicians
▪ Sentinel Interviews pres. candidate Ron Paul
▪ Clinton record reveals doubts of change
▪ The Wisdom of Reagan applied to today
▪ Editorials
▪ Gainesville candidate Armando Grundy
▪ Marion Forms Tax Payer Action Group
▪ Solid gold silver surge
▪ Patrick Henry Speech
▪ Letters to the Editor


▪ Under Construction

ARealConservative
02-05-2008, 12:58 PM
We did get double digits in Iowa.

raiha
02-05-2008, 12:59 PM
thanks for posting this. It is always heartening to see good. intelligent. articulate, clear, fair and balanced articles. Especially TODAY!!

bobbyw24
02-05-2008, 01:02 PM
True--barely. But he also predicted 18% in NH and double digits after that. I cannot figure out why we have hit 10% or better only once. What happened in West Virgina?

I hear we will do will in Alaska and Washington. I hope so.

After today we will all have to figure out a way to beat the media, etc. so that our man gets the attention he deserves.

Ex Post Facto
02-05-2008, 01:05 PM
The one area that Ron Paul still seems to be lagging in is the media polls, conducted by the likes of Rasmussen, Gallup, and Zogby. In order to measure the significance of these polls, it is important to know how they are conducted. Many of them use miniscule samples to achieve their results. The larger the sample of a poll is, the higher the accuracy. A sample of six hundred or even a thousand people in a state like Florida, which has millions of voters, is statistically irrelevant. Also, these polls use selective qualifiers to “filter out” bad data. This process often leaves those who didn’t vote in previous Republican primaries ineligible to participate in the poll. If there is one thing for certain among Ron Paul’s supporters, it is that they come from diverse backgrounds and political ideologies. This makes disqualifying those who didn’t vote in the 2004 Republican Party primary a questionable practice where accuracy is concerned.

Well this explains our low national polling numbers, in the face of massive individual donors.

bobbyw24
02-05-2008, 01:06 PM
Good point. I live in Florida and the pollsters called me. Ron Paul was not even one of the choices that they gave to me.

InLoveWithRon
02-05-2008, 01:07 PM
True--barely. But he also predicted 18% in NH and double digits after that. I cannot figure out why we have hit 10% or better only once. What happened in West Virgina?

I hear we will do will in Alaska and Washington. I hope so.

After today we will all have to figure out a way to beat the media, etc. so that our man gets the attention he deserves.

Ron got 35% of the delegates in Maine for 2nd. And he got a large percentage in Louisiana for 2nd.

bobbyw24
02-05-2008, 01:08 PM
That's true. I see that the media only focuses on results where Ron Paul finished a "distant fourth" or last place like Fla. Okay, things are not as bad as I thought.

Shed
02-05-2008, 01:09 PM
Pretty old article. RP did get 10% in Iowa but the campaign is still fighting for nationwide recognition.

IcyPeaceMaker
02-05-2008, 01:21 PM
Note: Ron Paul has taken 10% of votes cast to date, though only 12% of the population knows his name. That means he's taking 83% of those who know his name. That is phenominal!

Scroll down to votes cast for verification:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914#CO

anaconda
02-05-2008, 01:25 PM
I am still at a loss to explain why Ron Paul's primary votes haven't been substantially & regularly higher than the poll numbers, since they were allegedly polling "likely Republican voters." There should have been a huge chunk that were not polled that intended to vote for Ron Paul. Maybe they went to McCain. I think we can win over a huge amount of voters by November in a third party run, while keeping the voters we already have. There is a perfect storm brewing for a good third party run. There is an unprecedented 9 months between Super Tuesday and the November general election, with likely Republican and Democrat nominees that are widely despised. Look how far we have come in the last 9 months. Imagine how much more the Freedom movement can grow by November. I hope we pull a lot of at least mid teen numbers today for Super Tuesday. We can be polling in the mid thirties along with Hillary and McCain by Nov. 1st. Now I'm off to vote for Ron Paul in San Mateo, CA!

Goldwater Conservative
02-05-2008, 01:31 PM
"He can't win."

Zogby underestimated the power of that underlying message consistently repeated by the MSM. Paul's poll numbers were on the rise in both early states, but collapsed at the last minute when people decided they wanted to vote for a "winner."

bobbyw24
02-05-2008, 01:35 PM
Yep-that's what we gotta work on--changing public perception about Ron Paul's electability. The people in South Texas know how elecetable he is.

bobbyw24
02-05-2008, 01:37 PM
Daily Paul posting:

John Zogby 'BAFFLED' by lack of Paul Votes
Posted February 5th, 2008 by opal

This a.m. John Zogby was on C-SPAN and said that he was "baffled" that RP had not had a better showing in the primaries so far. He stated that RP's support is strong and dedicated and that the campaign has done a good job getting his message out. He also said that RP has a 'clear message' but that lack of support at the polls is evidence that people are supporting a candidate that they believe can beat the Democrats.

Of course we know there is not much difference between Clinton and McCain, but so many Americans latch onto the MSM's talking points when deciding on a candidate.

anaconda
02-05-2008, 01:40 PM
The above post by IcyPeaceMaker is extremely relevant....

There is a perfect storm brewing for a viable third party run. There is an unprecedented NINE MONTHS between Super Tuesday and the November General Election with likely Republican and Democrat nominees that are widely despised (what the polls refer to as "high negatives"). Look how far we've come in the past nine months. Imagine how far we can go in the NEXT nine months! We're on a serious roll and just need to take advantage of this opportunity with the Libertarian Party's ballot access. RP needs to make a really good and innovative choice for a running mate and we need to part with some hard earned cash for the General Election campaign.

I'm off now to vote for RP in San Mateo, CA!

P.S. Sorry for the double post. I thought my earlier effort didn't take because I had become logged off.

HOLLYWOOD
02-05-2008, 01:45 PM
Daily Paul posting:

John Zogby 'BAFFLED' by lack of Paul Votes
Posted February 5th, 2008 by opal

This a.m. John Zogby was on C-SPAN and said that he was "baffled" that RP had not had a better showing in the primaries so far. He stated that RP's support is strong and dedicated and that the campaign has done a good job getting his message out. He also said that RP has a 'clear message' but that lack of support at the polls is evidence that people are supporting a candidate that they believe can beat the Democrats.

Of course we know there is not much difference between Clinton and McCain, but so many Americans latch onto the MSM's talking points when deciding on a candidate.

RON PAUL TOOK 2nd in NEVADA!!!

Media IGNORED it! ASK that A$$ ZOGBY, which he predicted, Ron would do 5% in NEVADA!

Since we have seen the Corruptions in POLL TAKING and MEDIA/MSM... let's do what FRANCE does, and BAN ALL/ANY POLL TAKING PRIOR to an ELECTION!

We know there's millions that are corrupt and 10's millions that are MORONS/IDIOTS in America!

Mystile
02-05-2008, 01:46 PM
we can't do shit without the media. It doesn't matter how many records we break or straw polls we win, the MSM will never, ever pay attention to us. The "polling argument" has be void ever since Giuliani and Thompson.

life_boy
02-05-2008, 01:55 PM
I remember getting excited reading Zogby's comments back on the first days of January. It filled me with such hope. But then the results came in and I have been dealing with the reality ever since.

Personally, I think RP could've pulled stronger results in the early states had the Precinct Leader system been established earlier, like October of '07 or November at the latest. Once the word spread beyond the college campus and the internet blogs and hit the real voters, it was almost too late. I still feel like we're trying to make up for lost time.

Fighting the perception of "non-electability" is brutal. It is everywhere. Among a circle of people I know there were a couple of guys who were big Huckabee supporters 2 weeks ago and were just the other night questioning voting for him because they don't want to "waste their vote."

bobbyw24
02-05-2008, 01:59 PM
That's true: the precinct leader program started months late. Here in Jacksonviile, we opened Ron Paul offices a week before the primary--should've had the offices open in the early fall.

Molly1
02-05-2008, 05:06 PM
we can't do shit without the media. It doesn't matter how many records we break or straw polls we win, the MSM will never, ever pay attention to us. The "polling argument" has be void ever since Giuliani and Thompson.

"No campaign in recent history has motivated this level of grassroots support or encouraged this number of individuals to switch party or register for the first time."

We have educated millions of people. Many will never believe the media again. More have learned the reality of things they never imagined. We've started a movement that will not be stopped. We have double digit candidates poised for congress.

Conservatives are hungry for our message. So are many Americans of all persuasions. As Ron Paul says, "Freedom is popular!"

No matter what they say, we are a force to be reckoned with, and we have changed the grey and gloomy complexion of the good ol' boy political landscape.

As for me, this is the first time I have voted for a candidate I really love in the Presidential election. I filled in the box and then just stood there and looked at it, and smiled.

Well done, good and faithful servants!

Madison
02-05-2008, 06:28 PM
Technically he got 9.98% in Iowa.

RSLudlum
02-05-2008, 06:30 PM
Zogby thought RP would've done much better


Zogby was on CSPAN this morning and said the same thing