Predict # of votes for Ron Paul in Ames

[aknappjr]

500. We need to get the word out.


Edit 8/8:
I think that for every 10 that you're off, you should donate $1. 100 off, donate $10.

1000 off, donate $100.

2000 off from the actual #, donate $200.



for those people who guessed one million votes or some absurd number, you owe $2300-4600.

[david.griffus]

Eleventy billion. What sayest thou?

[Richandler]

Aren't there going to be like 35,000 people there? I may be wrong...

500 is pretty pessimistic.

[beermotor]

3,750 Duble Wurd Scor Lol I Winz.

[ARealConservative]

1,776

[FreedomLover]

1,351

[cac1963]

the Iowa meetup groups combined had a total of about 550 members. So I'll say RP will get at least that.

[johnrocks]

Bush had over 7000 in 2000 to win, I want 8k minimal!!

[mtmedlin]

2625

[yongrel]

Rudy is gonna get 1984 votes.

[constituent]

0

Paulitikers know better than to pay for a voice.

[nunaem]

R0n w1ll g31 1337 5p4mm3r v0135. :cool:

Edit: Much better :cool:

[jpa]

3944!

[Akus]

can't we all just relax?
we did what we could.
we've adopted, we've called, we've mailed letters.
It's in God's hands now.
Just continue spreading the word wherever you are.

[CJLauderdale4]

7234...ish

[Ron Paul Fan]

1500

[surf]

7235

[njandrewg]

can't we all just relax?
we did what we could.
we've adopted, we've called, we've mailed letters.
It's in God's hands now.
Just continue spreading the word wherever you are.

still have a couple of days to keep calling, emailing newspapers etc

[Perry]

They are anticipating 40,000. I will say 7000-8000 for Ron.

[1000-points-of-fright]

One MIIILLion
http://seoblackhat.com/images/dr-evil.jpg

[Thom1776]

4500

What's the prize for being closest?

[Joe Knows]

Predict the number of Ron Paul votes.

I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that Ron Paul will receive 10,002 votes in the Iowa Straw Poll. This will be verifiable with a hand recount.

[Phil M]

0. Everyone knows that Ron Paul supporters never leave their basements.

[0zzy]

0. Everyone knows that Ron Paul supporters never leave their basements.

FOR YOUR INFORMATION. I live in the ATTIC! So THERE!

[Harry96]

Rudy is gonna get 1984 votes.

Ha!

[TruePatriot44]

4785

[Psyclone]

900, realize that many of the meetup group members are in fact members of multiple meetup groups (i.e., a good third of the Ames meetup group is from Des Moines and another 20 percent are from out of state) and they aren't going to allow you to vote twice. Even some of our hard core supporters (people who have passed out hundreds of DVDs in Ames and the surrounding area) are unwilling to pay $35 to vote and will not be voting in the straw poll. The decision by the campaign not to pay for people's tickets was absolutely fatal.

[mport1]

A few hundred. Would bee much higher if everybody was participating in the call/mail Iowa programs.

[paulitics]

Even some of our hard core supporters (people who have passed out hundreds of DVDs in Ames and the surrounding area) are unwilling to pay $35 to vote and will not be voting in the straw poll. The decision by the campaign not to pay for people's tickets was absolutely fatal.


How do you know this?

[0zzy]

900, realize that many of the meetup group members are in fact members of multiple meetup groups (i.e., a good third of the Ames meetup group is from Des Moines and another 20 percent are from out of state) and they aren't going to allow you to vote twice. Even some of our hard core supporters (people who have passed out hundreds of DVDs in Ames and the surrounding area) are unwilling to pay $35 to vote and will not be voting in the straw poll. The decision by the campaign not to pay for people's tickets was absolutely fatal.

They have 500. They aren't willing to spend $35? ...

[AZ Libertarian]

42,438

Rudy will get 6

[fletcher]

500 meetup + 600 Adopt-an-Iowan = 1100 minimum

I don't think it will be a problem getting people to vote for Ron when you give them a ticket to do it. Getting people to pay for it will be very hard. I think 2000 would be very good.

[mport1]

500 meetup + 600 Adopt-an-Iowan = 1100 minimum

I don't think it will be a problem getting people to vote for Ron when you give them a ticket to do it. Getting people to pay for it will be very hard. I think 2000 would be very good.

Not all Meetup members will go seeing as most members aren't involved to begin with. The 600 free tickets doesn't mean that there are 600 extra people that are coming.

[fletcher]

Not all Meetup members will go seeing as most members aren't involved to begin with. The 600 free tickets doesn't mean that there are 600 extra people that are coming.

You are right that not all meetup members will go, but I think (hope) at least half will. As far as the free tickets go I think they will sell themselves at the event. A lot of people are undecided and Ron has the best message. But I'm biased.

[Wyurm]

900, realize that many of the meetup group members are in fact members of multiple meetup groups (i.e., a good third of the Ames meetup group is from Des Moines and another 20 percent are from out of state) and they aren't going to allow you to vote twice. Even some of our hard core supporters (people who have passed out hundreds of DVDs in Ames and the surrounding area) are unwilling to pay $35 to vote and will not be voting in the straw poll. The decision by the campaign not to pay for people's tickets was absolutely fatal.

dude, they are paying for up to 500 tickets that they bought for those who would not or could not buy them.

[Psyclone]

I've been asked how I know that people in the Ames meetup group are a) often from out of state or members of the Des Moines group or b) unwilling to spend $35 to vote. I know this because I am the organizer of the Ames meetup group and I've been told by some of the people who helped me hand out DVDs over the last two weeks that they are not going to be voting in the straw poll because they can't afford it. I've offered to pay for their tickets, but many of them feel uncomfortable about that. I know that many of the people who sign up for the meetup group have not come to a single meeting (because I've been to every meeting), and so I think it is unrealistic to expect them to actually come to the straw poll and pay to vote. Go to meetup.com yourself and look at the membership lists and see how many members of the Ames group are members of the Des Moines group as well.

[Wyurm]

I've been asked how I know that people in the Ames meetup group are a) often from out of state or members of the Des Moines group or b) unwilling to spend $35 to vote. I know this because I am the organizer of the Ames meetup group and I've been told by some of the people who helped me hand out DVDs over the last two weeks that they are not going to be voting in the straw poll because they can't afford it. I've offered to pay for their tickets, but many of them feel uncomfortable about that. I know that many of the people who sign up for the meetup group have not come to a single meeting (because I've been to every meeting), and so I think it is unrealistic to expect them to actually come to the straw poll and pay to vote. Go to meetup.com yourself and look at the membership lists and see how many members of the Ames group are members of the Des Moines group as well.

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/events/iowa-straw-poll

Tickets are $35 however due to the generous contributions of our supporters, we have been able to buy a block of 500 tickets for Iowa residents eligible to vote. If you want one please email heather@ronpaul2008.com with the following information:
Your name
Your address
The type of ID you will be using
Once you send this information, you will be sent a voucher to print and bring to the Straw Poll with your ID. There will be a table at the Ron Paul tent where you can redeem your voucher for a ticket.

[V-rod]

Ron paul will get... over NINE THOUSANDDD!!!! :D


all the good number jokes were already taken

[mport1]

I've been asked how I know that people in the Ames meetup group are a) often from out of state or members of the Des Moines group or b) unwilling to spend $35 to vote. I know this because I am the organizer of the Ames meetup group and I've been told by some of the people who helped me hand out DVDs over the last two weeks that they are not going to be voting in the straw poll because they can't afford it. I've offered to pay for their tickets, but many of them feel uncomfortable about that. I know that many of the people who sign up for the meetup group have not come to a single meeting (because I've been to every meeting), and so I think it is unrealistic to expect them to actually come to the straw poll and pay to vote. Go to meetup.com yourself and look at the membership lists and see how many members of the Ames group are members of the Des Moines group as well.

Thank you for the reality check. I think that everybody who is extremely hyped about this is going to be very disappointed (I really hope I'm wrong). We need to get everybody who already supports Ron Paul out there doing stuff for the campaign. There are so many people who have never attended a Meetup, never donated to the campaign, never done anything except surfing the net and giving their "support" to Ron.

[freedom_junkie]

Well I hope they take the tickets, I adopted an Iowan for this purpose, to help them get there. How could they not be OK with it whe the other candidates are doing this AND giving free icecream? hmph!

[Original_Intent]

I will say 4,000, (based on 40,000 attendance) My real guess is 10% of the votes cast.

[mport1]

All of you who think that Ron will poll 1,000+, where do you expect this support to come from? I certainly haven't seen it. The average person has never heard of Ron Paul, and many who have think he is a crazy, long-shot because that is how the media portrays him. The polls are off, but not by much.

[remaxjon]

All of you who think that Ron will poll 1,000+, where do you expect this support to come from? I certainly haven't seen it. The average person has never heard of Ron Paul, and many who have think he is a crazy, long-shot because that is how the media portrays him. The polls are off, but not by much.

There has got to be atleast 1000 people in Iowa who will support Dr Paul. I think he has atleast 500 in meetup groups alone in Iowa.

I'm going with 3200 and a close third place

Romey gets around 6000

[rockfree33]

Remember the rally in Iowa? Nobody expected there to be so many supporters because of the small meetup groups there at the time. There weren't enough seats in the place for everyone to sit. That was just done in a weeks notice. Ron Paul's influence has only grown since then, and I would imagine that he will get a lot of supporters coming out of the woodwork to vote for him in Ames. My estimate is 3,500 votes if not more.

[dsentell]

mport1, you are such a wet blanket! Why are you even here?

I think you are some type of infiltrator, just trying to bring everybody down.

[Dustancostine]

Remember that Adopt-an-Iowan has around 643 tickets to give out and a guy in Cali has 142 more to give to students. Also there are about 500 meetup members. If you add those numbers alone that is 1280 votes. So hopefully we can get to at least 2,000. Also I have a funny feeling there are only going to be around 25,000 attending. I think most voters are not motivated to go to the poll.

[trispear]

Is the campaign or the meet-up groups planning any type of way of transporting people there, whether by bus or by carpooling?

I know lots of people don't attend big events simply because of the hassle of parking and all that.

[SwordOfShannarah]

2112 either that or 1001001

[Perry]

4500

What's the prize for being closest?

You'll be on the ticket. That's right ... Vice President!

[Psyclone]

I am glad mport1 is here because I think a dose of realism is needed. The worst thing that can happen to a grassroots campaign is to get our hopes so high that we are bound to be disappointed. It is much better to think the numbers will be low and be pleasantly surprised than to think the numbers will be high and be disappointed. Whatever the outcome in Ames, the campaign must go on, and I worry that everyone will give up if the numbers are lower than what we expect.

[FreedomLover]

Psyclone, you live in Ames, based on your experiences, what do you think the final order will be for the straw poll?

[brumans]

The campaign is giving away 500 tickets themselves.

I'm going to guess 2,843.

[Psyclone]

Freedom lover asked, so I'm going to respond, but I fear everyone is going to hate on me afterwards. Living in Ames and having campaigned among the people of Story County for the last two months, my honest best guess for the finishing order of the Ames Straw Poll is:

1. Romney: he is bringing tons of people in buses, he has the most paid media by far, and it would be a major embarassment to him to lose, so he is spending whatever it takes to win.


Realize that the next three are very close to one another. They have all three pinned their hopes of vaulting to the next level by doing well in the Iowa Straw Poll, and have spent lots of time and money in the state:

2. Huckabee: he has spent a lot of time and money in the state and people like him better personally than Tommy Thompson or Sam Brownback. I have heard he is bringing church groups in buses. That is an extremely effective tactic that helped Pat Robertson do much better than expected both in the Ames straw poll and in the Iowa Caucuses.

3. Brownback: I have also heard that he is busing in church groups which is why I expect him to finish this high. He has spent more time and money in Iowa than Huckabee, but people have no enthusiasm for him whatsoever. I predict Brownback drops out after finishing behind Huckabee.

4. Tommy Thompson: visited every county in the state this Summer. Has spent more time in Iowa than any of the others. Doesn't appear to have as much money as Huckabee and Brownback, but has pretty much bet his entire campaign war chest on doing well in the straw poll. I have detected no enthusiasm for him whatsoever.

5. Ron Paul: nobody questions our dedication and enthusiasm. Everyone is impressed by our volunteers and how positive and excited they are, however, our campaign is operating at a disadvantage for the Ames straw poll because a) Dr. Paul has spent less time in Iowa than any of the people listed above and thereby missed out on a lot of free coverage, b) we only recently began paid radio and TV spots, and we are way behind the other campaigns in that area, and c) most areas of the state have no Ron Paul activists whatsoever. A very large percentage of people I see at Ron Paul events in Iowa are out of state people who cannot vote in the straw poll. I see a lot more excitement among people of the surrounding states for Dr. Paul than I do from Iowans (I think because we get so many political ads right now that everybody is sick of politics here). I'm very sorry, but I have to call it like I see it.

6. Tom Tancredo: Hasn't been as active as most of the others in Iowa, but his state headquarters is in Ames, and lots of people like him.

7. Giuliani: he is on the ballot, but he doesn't have a tent. Has been visiting the state recently and intimated that he might show up at the straw poll. But, if you don't pay for tickets, and you don't have a tent, Iowans will be insulted if you ask for their support.

8. Fred Thompson: hasn't campaigned here, won't be at the event, doesn't have a tent. Only diehard supporters will vote for him given that he is snubbing us.

9. McCain: has done some campaigning here, but isn't going to be at the event, doesn't have a tent, and has the stench of a loser about him. If Iowans aren't good enough for you to bribe us with straw poll goodies, we aren't good enough to vote for you.

10. Duncan Hunter: has a tent at the straw poll and the few people I talk to who have been to one of his functions say he is a cool guy, but he is off the radar screen here.

11. Cox: he has a tent at the straw poll, but nobody knows anything about him.

I'm sorry I couldn't be more positive about Dr. Paul's chances. I agree with Dave of Des Moines: we should be super, super enthusiastic regardless of how the straw poll turns out! This is only the opening salvo of a very long campaign.

[scrosnoe]

There is this one little thing that you seem to be forgetting.

I know because, I am one of hundreds, maybe even thousands that are coming to Iowa from around the country at no small expense of time and money to be there for one reason and that is Ron Paul (and the 'calling' to be there)!

There isn't any other campaign out there that has that many people coming just to do whatever needs to be done and to create a presence there for our candidate. Iowans don't know who is from out of state and who is not. They will see Ron Paul energy everywhere!

Wouldn't it be interesting if the online polls are actually an accurate reflection of the voting population and the results at the Iowa straw poll is 56% or more for Ron Paul?

Optimism or realism - time will tell . . .

[Revolution9]

I am glad mport1 is here because I think a dose of realism is needed. The worst thing that can happen to a grassroots campaign is to get our hopes so high that we are bound to be disappointed. It is much better to think the numbers will be low and be pleasantly surprised than to think the numbers will be high and be disappointed. Whatever the outcome in Ames, the campaign must go on, and I worry that everyone will give up if the numbers are lower than what we expect.

Actually.. That is not the way projection into the 3D laboratory Universe works out. Set your expectations for the projection and watch reality conform. Where do you think Ron came from when we needed him to be there? A bit of a "miracle" I would say.

Best Regards
Randy

[Electrostatic]

Actually.. That is not the way projection into the 3D laboratory Universe works out. Set your expectations for the projection and watch reality conform. Where do you think Ron came from when we needed him to be there? A bit of a "miracle" I would say.

Best Regards
Randy

I love your outlook, but I am a Cubs fan. :p

Seriously, though, it depends a lot on how many people show up at all.

[akalucas]

I think it also depends how many people at the straw poll listening to Pauls speech have already cast their votes and how many of those that haven't are undecideds. I'm convinced he can pull in many of those. Someone told me around here that the place were the candidates are speaking holds around 15,000. Any guess on how many people will attend the speech and what percentage of those people will have not voted at that time?

[lapi7]

OK, let's put the possible results in a different prospective.

Here's my official Dr. Paul Iowa Straw Poll Results Menu:

Dr. Paul comes in 8th or 9th = I'll have a stale bologna sandwich.

Dr Paul comes in 7th = I'll have hot wings and a beer.

Dr Paul comes in 6th = I'll have a Big Mac with Fries

Dr. Paul comes in 5th = I'll have a nice T-Bone steak

Dr. Paul comes in 4th = I'll have Lobster with butter and Filet Mignon

Dr. Paul comes in 3rd = I take my entire family out to eat at the Plaza Hotel in NYC

Dr. Paul comes in 2nd = I'll eat a lamp shade

Dr. Paul comes in 1st = I'll eat a Steinway Baby Grand Piano ! ! !

Oh, I almost forgot...

Dr Paul comes in dead last = Cow chips on Rye (hold the onions!)

[mport1]

mport1, you are such a wet blanket! Why are you even here?

I think you are some type of infiltrator, just trying to bring everybody down.

Lol, infiltrator. Why don't you read some of my posts?

I'm not trying to bring everybody down, I am trying to show people that we have a VERY long way to go. We can't sit back and be complacent because we've had a few good rallies. I am extremely disappointed by the lack of enthusiasm and real world effort put forth by most people and want to make sure everybody realizes how important it is to get out into the real world and get things done.

[Badger Paul]

Pysclone I'm not going to rip you because that was good synopses. Let's hope our last minute efforts push into third. I can see church groups effort pushing up someone like Huckabee but you yourself said there really isn't a a lot of enthusiasim for either Thompson or Brownback. Considering that GOP county leaders in the state have us finishing dead last, third place would be great showing for such a short period of time and we can get great spin out of it, enough to fuel us through the fall.

[aknappjr]

You guys with inflated positions...I hope your right but I'll bet he gets around 1000 votes and probably fewer. Keep calling Iowians.

[Johnnybags]

1,275.

[nullvalu]

1 ......... hahaha I watched The Price is Right's Showcase Showdown enough times to know this almost always wins..

[Hurricane Bruiser]

666

The Mark of everyone else.

[fletcher]

Dr Paul comes in 7th = I'll have hot wings and a beer.

Dr Paul comes in 6th = I'll have a Big Mac with Fries


You think a Big Mac with fries is better than hot wings and beer?? :confused: Ron Paul really does attract all sorts of people.

[torchbearer]

hot wings and beer sounds really good right now....

[Swmorgan77]

900, realize that many of the meetup group members are in fact members of multiple meetup groups (i.e., a good third of the Ames meetup group is from Des Moines and another 20 percent are from out of state) and they aren't going to allow you to vote twice. Even some of our hard core supporters (people who have passed out hundreds of DVDs in Ames and the surrounding area) are unwilling to pay $35 to vote and will not be voting in the straw poll. The decision by the campaign not to pay for people's tickets was absolutely fatal.

I will pay one of these people's 35 bucks via paypal.

[nullvalu]

They won't pay 35 bucks? WEAK! I will paypal 35 bucks to an Iowa voter right now!

I thought they were going to pay for 500 tickets for whoever wanted em?

[brumans]

OK, let's put the possible results in a different prospective.

Here's my official Dr. Paul Iowa Straw Poll Results Menu:

Dr. Paul comes in 8th or 9th = I'll have a stale bologna sandwich.

Dr Paul comes in 7th = I'll have hot wings and a beer.

Dr Paul comes in 6th = I'll have a Big Mac with Fries

Dr. Paul comes in 5th = I'll have a nice T-Bone steak

Dr. Paul comes in 4th = I'll have Lobster with butter and Filet Mignon

Dr. Paul comes in 3rd = I take my entire family out to eat at the Plaza Hotel in NYC

Dr. Paul comes in 2nd = I'll eat a lamp shade

Dr. Paul comes in 1st = I'll eat a Steinway Baby Grand Piano ! ! !

Oh, I almost forgot...

Dr Paul comes in dead last = Cow chips on Rye (hold the onions!)

If it's 1st or 2nd, you're going to video tape it, right?

[rockfree33]

I will be happy with anything over 2% to be honest. I'm tired of the media introducing Ron Paul with his low polling numbers every time they do a story about him. Not that 3% sounds much better but it's a start.

[brumans]

You guys are underestimating Ron Paul's grassroots supporters. Think of all the people making phone calls, mailing letters, distributing DVDs, going door-to-door. That stuff has an impact! You are all acting like that means absolutely nothing.
Combine that with daily visits all this week with at least 500 new visits everyday. Radio ads, TV ads -- Any Iowans (especially younger voters) that have the Internet. They see this appeal.

[mport1]

You guys are underestimating Ron Paul's grassroots supporters. Think of all the people making phone calls, mailing letters, distributing DVDs, going door-to-door. That stuff has an impact! You are all acting like that means absolutely nothing.
Combine that with daily visits all this week with at least 500 new visits everyday. Radio ads, TV ads -- Any Iowans (especially younger voters) that have the Internet. They see this appeal.

I hope you're right, but let's make sure to keep the efforts up.

[jpa]

I don't see how people are predicting under 1,000.

Ron Paul national campaign bought 500 tickets. The Adopt an Iowan campaign bought 638.

I would think we are going to get 95-98% turnout on those tickets.

[mconder]

Rudy is gonna get 1984 votes.

Too funny!

[mconder]

1789

[mport1]

I don't see how people are predicting under 1,000.

Ron Paul national campaign bought 500 tickets. The Adopt an Iowan campaign bought 638.

I would think we are going to get 95-98% turnout on those tickets.

That means that people actually have to be willing to vote for Paul which is a large assumption.

[Ron Paul Fan]

I don't see how people are predicting under 1,000.

Ron Paul national campaign bought 500 tickets. The Adopt an Iowan campaign bought 638.

I would think we are going to get 95-98% turnout on those tickets.

Yeah, I think anywhere from 1,000-2,000 is a realistic representation at this point. I hope it's above that, but once Dr. Paul knew he had $2.4 million in the bank he probably realized he didn't need a great finish here to go the distance. He's trying to do more in a week here than the other candidates did in months. If you're expecting 40,000 votes then 2,000 votes would be 5% and I'd be very surprised, but ecstatic if he got above that.

[Joby]

Damn. I didn't know the campaign and grassroots bought that many tickets for voters. Props to y'all.

If he gets above 2,000, I'll be ecstatic.

[jpa]

That means that people actually have to be willing to vote for Paul which is a large assumption.

Didn't both of those campaigns sell out their allotment?

[Cowlesy]

Lots of us nationwide adopted Iowans (tickets) and wrote letters. If the campaign does well (2%+), I'll be thrilled. If it doesn't, that just means we simply need more time to continue spreading the message. Not "killing it" in this stupid straw poll won't diminish my support in the least. We are still months away from the Iowa Caucuses. Now this isn't saying people should relax, but I just don't think folks should get demoralized if it's not a resounding victory. All the posts I read on here just pump me up more to support however I can (right now trying to organize the balloting for my state's primary--or probably better, organize a group of organizers to get it done). If you can, max out your donations. Lots of you have probably already done that, but if you can't...kick in some time which in my view has equal or greater value than the money.

Ames Straw Poll is a money contest. Not the end of the world. I for one believe Dr. Paul will do surprisingly well.

1234.53 votes (a little margin for the Diebold machines).

[Adam Smith]

I have truly bad prediction skills, but I'll try anyway. I'll say 2701.

My prediction is based on the following:
"Hyped" turnout =40,000
Likely turnout since Rudy and McCain and Fred not present = 20,000 - 30,000
My estimate of what RP is actually polling nationwide = 6%-12%

My only request is that if my prediction's the closest I get to go tell ABC to kiss my rear end.

[Man from La Mancha]

Any predictions are a farce considering the voting machines.

[ThePieSwindler]

3rd place is usually around 1200 votes, so ill say that sounds reasonable. I'm sure there are independants/democrats who might go as well to bolster the ranks!

[mport1]

I'll guess 450.

[aknappjr]

I think that for every 10 that you're off, you have to donate $1. 100 off, donate $10.


1000 off, donate $100.

2000 off from the actual #, donate $200.

for those people who guessed one million votes or some absurd number in the Iowa Straw Poll, you owe $2300-4600.

[ThePieSwindler]

I'll guess 450.

lol dude wut? There are probably around 300-350 individual iowa meetup members alone. 700-800 is pessimistic, but 450 is a number that makes me think you're just trolling. Actually alot of your posts lately make me think that.

PS: im kidding, i just thnk you're being unrealistic to a pessimistic degree, and you're being a Debbie Downer :-p 450 is REALLY FUCKING LOW and is less than twice the number of individuals in meetup.

[DeadheadForPaul]

601

[jacmicwag]

Maybe we'll get a late push from people attending Ronstock if folks work the room and get out the last minute vote. There are 3 days left to turn up the heat and make things happen. I'm from Houston and got one guy from Des Moines to commit last night on the Call an Iowan program. Maybe I'll get lucky and nail another tonight. If everybody on the Forum can just squeeze out one more vote, it will make a huge difference. My goal is third place with 1321 votes.

[Bradley in DC]

can't we all just relax?
we did what we could.
we've adopted, we've called, we've mailed letters.
It's in God's hands now.
Just continue spreading the word wherever you are.

Keep calling--and donate!

[ghemminger]

CAN u GUYS STOP GUESSing....don't you realize any reporter can publish this and if Ron Paul doesn't MATCH up your expectation it will be a dissappointment?????

If you guess...EDIT your posts and take em down 50% PLEASE!!!

We should be chearing no matter how many votes RP gets...because it is a miracle we have made it this far this fast!!!

[jpa]

I'll guess 450.

Care to take a bet out on that? C'mon make it interesting for us.

Name the terms. I'll even stand by my way-to-optimistic original count. That would mean above 2197 I win, below you win.

[ghemminger]

lol dude wut? There are probably around 300-350 individual iowa meetup members alone. 700-800 is pessimistic, but 450 is a number that makes me think you're just trolling. Actually alot of your posts lately make me think that.

PS: im kidding, i just thnk you're being unrealistic to a pessimistic degree, and you're being a Debbie Downer :-p 450 is REALLY FUCKING LOW and is less than twice the number of individuals in meetup.

CAN u GUYS STOP GUESSing HIGH....don't you realize any reporter can publish this and if Ron Paul doesn't MATCH up your expectations it will be a dissappointment?????

If you guess...EDIT your posts and take em down 50% PLEASE!!!

We should be cheering no matter how many votes RP gets...because it is a miracle we have made it this far this fast!!!

[ThePieSwindler]

CAN u GUYS STOP GUESSing HIGH....don't you realize any reporter can publish this and if Ron Paul doesn't MATCH up your expectations it will be a dissappointment?????

If you guess...EDIT your posts and take em down 50% PLEASE!!!

We should be cheering no matter how many votes RP gets...because it is a miracle we have made it this far this fast!!!

Nice fail. Double post...

Dude, i said 700-800 is pessimistic but is in the range of being realistic. 450 is way too low considering 2/3 of that number would be the meetup groups. you underestime the grassroots effort. 800 votes is 2% of 40k (which is what he is polling right now IN SCIENTIFIC POLLS). If you think hes at less than that, you are even more pessimistic and idiotic than DAILY KOS AND LITTLE GREEN FOOTBALLS. 1200 sounds realistic to me.

[ghemminger]

Nice fail. Double post...

Dude, i said 700-800 is pessimistic but is in the range of being realistic. 450 is way too low considering 2/3 of that number would be the meetup groups. you underestime the grassroots effort. 800 votes is 2% of 40k (which is what he is polling right now IN SCIENTIFIC POLLS). If you think hes at less than that, you are even more pessimistic and idiotic than DAILY KOS AND LITTLE GREEN FOOTBALLS. 1200 sounds realistic to me.

Nice PUTDOWNS..you really sound like someone who is a lovely person to work with and if you don't get my point then ...I am sorry....but we are not in the prediction business and what I am trying to say any predictions that are to high HURT RP.....Maybe YOU don't CARE but many of us do......so I appreciate your candor.....I don't appreciate putdowns

[PaleoConservative]

"CAN u GUYS STOP GUESSing HIGH....don't you realize any reporter can publish this and if Ron Paul doesn't MATCH up your expectations it will be a dissappointment?????"

uh, because it will be a dissappointment! I'll be man enough to admit this. I fail to see how being honest if the results are bad will hurt our campaign. The media isn't going to let us get away with it if we have a bad finish simply because we act happy with the finish.

"If you guess...EDIT your posts and take em down 50% PLEASE!!!"

Hey, good idea. Let's lower expectations so we can say we won when the results aren't up to par. This is the type of political nonsense that makes people tune out politics. If we don't do well in Iowa, let's refocus, and double our efforts. We can spin it any which way we won't, but people won't be buying it if we don't do well.

"We should be cheering no matter how many votes RP gets...because it is a miracle we have made it this far this fast!!!"

Wow, Ron Paul is at 3% in the polls and you call that a miracle? I'd hate to see what your definition of failure is. Anything less then 4th will be a *huge* disappointment. With our dedicated supporters and a great message, how can anyone except anything less? If we want to win, the standards have to be set high. Calling bad results a miracle and putting on false smiles won't help us at all.

[ghemminger]

This is a quote from DAVE and I tend to agrre with it though you have a good argument.......



Why We'll be Cheering When They Announce the Results in Ames

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

About 3 weeks ago I made my assessment of where the candidates would finish in Ames – based on may read of things at that time.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=8654

Of course the dynamics here in Iowa have changed in the last 3 weeks but I’m not making an updated prediction. I will say this…

When the results are announced Saturday at 7:00 PM (don’t be surprised if it ends up being later – you know how these things go) I’ll be cheering and turning cartwheels no matter where Ron Paul finishes. I’ll be celebrating and high-fiving like I just won the lottery even if we come in 10th (don’t worry - we won’t).

Why? Because at Ames you’re not competing with the other candidates so much as you’re competing with your own expectations. Imagine – if Romney gets 10% it will terminate his candidacy but if John Cox got 10% it would give him newfound credibility. Wherever we finish we want to convey the message to the media and supporters of other candidates that we are blown away with our success. If there are any long faces when the results are announced that negative energy will be picked up on and interpreted as us having failed. If the supporters of other candidates who fail to meet expectations see our excitement then they might take a look at moving into the Ron Paul camp. Enthusiasm and fun are contagious.

If we finish 7th or 6th I will drive home thinking we did fine and we will keep pushing forward to the caucuses and primaries. 5th or higher means were smokin’ hot because we knocked off someone who:
Spent tons of time on the ground in Iowa
Spent tons of money in Iowa
Paid to transport Iowans to Ames
Bought tickets for Iowans to cast their votes.
So if we finish 5th or higher we should be delighted with our momentum. Anything less than 3rd will terminate some of these other candidates because they’re running out of money and had bet all their chips on Iowa. Ron Paul will march on with money in the bank and growing national support.

Of course the higher we finish the better, but I won’t be the least bit disappointed or discouraged if we’re not in the top 5 at Ames. I’ll stand and cheer and keep spreading the word about Ron Paul!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[PaleoConservative]

I might get discouraged a bit, knowing my personality, but I tend to bounce back and work harder after I get discouraged. I'll be working as hard as I can and supporting Dr. Paul no matter what happens Saturday.

However, I think we may surprise some people. Remember, Alan Keyes came in with 12% in 2000. I haven't felt this kind of excitement in a Republican primary since Buchanan 96.

[ghemminger]

I might get discouraged a bit, knowing my personality, but I tend to bounce back and work harder after I get discouraged. I'll be working as hard as I can and supporting Dr. Paul no matter what happens Saturday.

However, I think we may surprise some people. Remember, Alan Keyes came in with 12% in 2000. I haven't felt this kind of excitement in a Republican primary since Buchanan 96.

To be honest with you...I have read so much on this subject I really hope we do GREAT! But I just don't really know.......I don't want everyone to be dissappointed....I mean did you read some of the #s.....there not jiving from what I'm hearing from other sources

[ThePieSwindler]

Nice PUTDOWNS..you really sound like someone who is a lovely person to work with and if you don't get my point then ...I am sorry....but we are not in the prediction business and what I am trying to say any predictions that are to high HURT RP.....Maybe YOU don't CARE but many of us do......so I appreciate your candor.....I don't appreciate putdowns

Ok. Look, i dont have anything against you, you seem like a nice poster, but i think its absurd to single out my post as "guessing too high" when i didn't even go into quadruple digit numbers. I said 700-800. If you honestly think thats too high, if you honestly think we need to guess numbers that are obviously way too low and put Ron Paul basically in last place, then sorry for being an optimist. I got your point, i dont get why i was singled out when others said 2000+ seriously. All i said was "nice fail" because you double posted. That was a bit dick of me, but your singling me out and sayng im "predicting too high" pissed me off because 2% is not high, its exactly what he is polling in scientific polls - if those are accurate, he should get at least that much. I mean single out jpa hes taking bets for over 2200! Or something~~! What is your guess? 200? Its just as bad to predict him for last place than it is to predict him for first. Because neither is realistic.

[ghemminger]

I mean we had almost 100 posts with people predicting #s and I'm not sure if any of us have an IDEA of what reality really is.....if people want to predict...that's fine but say something to back it up

[Ron Paul Fan]

I might get discouraged a bit, knowing my personality, but I tend to bounce back and work harder after I get discouraged. I'll be working as hard as I can and supporting Dr. Paul no matter what happens Saturday.

However, I think we may surprise some people. Remember, Alan Keyes came in with 12% in 2000. I haven't felt this kind of excitement in a Republican primary since Buchanan 96.

Alan Keyes came in 7th, got 1100 votes, which was 5% in the Iowa straw poll. He then finished 3rd in the caucus finishing with 12,329 votes which was 14% and well ahead John McCain who finished 5th. So this straw poll is not the end all and it's not a *huge* dissapointment if Dr. Paul finishes worse than 4th place especially for a guy who has spent considerably less time here and just got ads out this week.

[FreedomLover]

This straw poll is not life or death for us. It is for other candidates, but a message as strong as RP's cannot weaken, whether he gets first or last, I will still support him all the same. :cool:

So everybody, just chill, it's just a big fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party, and candidates are buying their votes anyhow, let's take it for what it is.

It will be interesting to see what the real number is in a couple days. What should the person who got closest win?

[ThePieSwindler]

I mean we had almost 100 posts with people predicting #s and I'm not sure if any of us have an IDEA of what reality really is.....if people want to predict...that's fine but say something to back it up

Ok here goes:

The meetup groups have about 550 members but lets say its really 350 because of out of staters and overlaps. So thats at least 300 votes right there, if not near 100% . Ok, now lets say about 10,000 iowans have been called and 20,000 or so mailed letters. If the polls are correct, and 2-3% of people support ron paul or would end up supporting him from learning about him, thats 200-300 iowan votes from phone and 400-600 iowan votes from mail. Lets assume those numbers are optimistic, and cut them in half like you suggested- thatd be 125 and 250, or 375 votes from all those calls and letters, added on to the meetup members. Then lets factor in the fact that Ron is going around this week and drawing nice crowds - lets say those crowds have 500 people (havent some been drawing near 1000?) and 20-25% of those are interested iowans, so 120 or so. Lets say about 50 of those iowans come away supporting Dr Paul (they wouldnt have gone in the first place if they werent interested, and his message is gold). Lets multiply that by his dozen visits or so - thats 600 votes. Then lets factor in the radio ads, TV ads, HUGE FUCKING BILLBOARDS, jan mickelson's kind words, and the grassroots activism from out of staters - say they can raise maybe another 100 votes somehow through their activism, and another 100 from billboards/adverts.

Ok lets tally: 300 meetup members. 375 from mail/calls. 500-600 from his visitations/campaigning. 200 or so from advertising and grassroots. Thats 1475, or around 3rd-4th place. Thats too high to me, so lets adjust it 50% AGAIN like you say. thats 738 votes or so, good for like 7th or 8th. So he'll place between 3rd and 8th, and 700-800 is about the range i said was pessimistic but also realistic.

There, I said something to back it up :D

edit: lets add 100 iowans for good measure - independants and democrats that have seen him on the internet, and might show up to help out, and a few the 55% of antiwar republicans in Iowa who saw him on the debates talk about being against the war but FOR going after Bin Laden. So thats about 800-1500 votes.

[BillyBeer]

1600 votes and 4th place

[Cowlesy]

Avery I like your idea and I'm in and will make a contribution to the NYC PAC (that we'll form at some point) for Dr. Paul even if he only gets 60 freakin' votes.

[kenc9]

The last straw poll was this,
2000 Iowa Caucus
Bush 35,948
Forbes 26,744
Keyes 12,496
Bauer 7487
McCain 4093
Hatch 898
Total 87,666

So I think it will be close to the same,
Romney 35K
Ron Paul 26K

[ThePieSwindler]

The last straw poll was this,
2000 Iowa Caucus
Bush 35,948
Forbes 26,744
Keyes 12,496
Bauer 7487
McCain 4093
Hatch 898
Total 87,666

So I think it will be close to the same,
Romney 35K
Ron Paul 26K

Thats the caucus not the straw poll. Bush won the straw poll with like 7000 back in 2000, but the caucus (primary) with 35k.

[mport1]

Care to take a bet out on that? C'mon make it interesting for us.

Name the terms. I'll even stand by my way-to-optimistic original count. That would mean above 2197 I win, below you win.

Well, maybe my guess is a little low, but I am very pessimistic about this because of the lack of enthusiasm I've seen from a lot of people about the Iowa outreach programs and the low turnouts of Meetup groups.

If you want to make a bet on that, how about winner gives $15 to Paul (would do more but I just sent in another $20 today). So you get 2,197 and up and I get 2,196 and down?

[PatriotOne]

However many the criminals say he has is what I predict.

[kenc9]

Thats the caucus not the straw poll. Bush won the straw poll with like 7000 back in 2000, but the caucus (primary) with 35k.

My mistake :o

A story I found,
40,000 people came to the Ames Straw Poll in 2000. With the general disenchantment within the Republican Party after immigration, the serious setbacks in 2006, and three of the major candidates not attending (Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson) - I would normally expect only 30,000 to 35,000 to show up. But because campaigning started so early this year and there’s an anti-war Republican (Ron Paul), I’m going to predict somewhere between 40,000 and 60,000 will.

So my new guess 17,000

[mport1]

My mistake :o

A story I found,
40,000 people came to the Ames Straw Poll in 2000. With the general disenchantment within the Republican Party after immigration, the serious setbacks in 2006, and three of the major candidates not attending (Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson) - I would normally expect only 30,000 to 35,000 to show up. But because campaigning started so early this year and there’s an anti-war Republican (Ron Paul), I’m going to predict somewhere between 40,000 and 60,000 will.

So my new guess 17,000

So you think RP will take 28-43% of the vote in a 11 way race? That is pretty optimistic.

[Cowlesy]

I am so confident Dr. Paul can win this entire thing, I'll chip in $300 of my expected $2,300 for the general campaign. As many of you have seen before,

Thank you very much for your donation to the Ron Paul 2008 Presidential Campaign.

Your donation will allow us to expand and grow our campaign.

We depend on donors like you to help us spread the message of freedom, peace and prosperity through Ron Paul’s candidacy.

You will receive an email shortly with a confirmation number.


Please everyone, there are clearly extremely generous people on this site already. But for those of you who have been hesitant, skip pizza night...take one less trip to save some gas loot....kick the campaign $20!

If there has ever been one politician--scratch that, Statesman who will be careful with your money, it's Congressman Paul. I recently attended a private briefing with him before the Pittsburgh rally, and it was bare-bones...not even Pabst Blue Ribbons or a rubbery stuffed chicken breast-----I LOVED IT!

Congressman Paul uses very carefully every single nickel you all donate..he knows he doesn't need to impress his donors with fancy dinners---he knows they're most impressed when he demonstrates, first hand, that he cares for ever bit we give him.

Please donate today! www.ronpaul2008.com/donate

[mport1]

Awesome Ryan! Wish I had some more money to throw Ron's way. Hopefully I will get a decent paycheck for my summer job so that I can throw in a few hundred more.

[Cowlesy]

Mitch - Hey I truly believe Time donated to reaching out to average Joe voters has a value higher than national campaign donations.

I'm glad we've met a few times in person and your writing Iowans and reaching out to New Yorkers on the streets matters more in my view than hard $$$'s.

Hopefully you'll convert a bunch of the extremely bright students at Wash U. of St. Louis to the message of freedom and liberty.

[monotony]

Ok here goes:

The meetup groups have about 550 members but lets say its really 350 because of out of staters and overlaps. So thats at least 300 votes right there, if not near 100% . Ok, now lets say about 10,000 iowans have been called and 20,000 or so mailed letters. If the polls are correct, and 2-3% of people support ron paul or would end up supporting him from learning about him, thats 200-300 iowan votes from phone and 400-600 iowan votes from mail. Lets assume those numbers are optimistic, and cut them in half like you suggested- thatd be 125 and 250, or 375 votes from all those calls and letters, added on to the meetup members. Then lets factor in the fact that Ron is going around this week and drawing nice crowds - lets say those crowds have 500 people (havent some been drawing near 1000?) and 20-25% of those are interested iowans, so 120 or so. Lets say about 50 of those iowans come away supporting Dr Paul (they wouldnt have gone in the first place if they werent interested, and his message is gold). Lets multiply that by his dozen visits or so - thats 600 votes. Then lets factor in the radio ads, TV ads, HUGE FUCKING BILLBOARDS, jan mickelson's kind words, and the grassroots activism from out of staters - say they can raise maybe another 100 votes somehow through their activism, and another 100 from billboards/adverts.

Ok lets tally: 300 meetup members. 375 from mail/calls. 500-600 from his visitations/campaigning. 200 or so from advertising and grassroots. Thats 1475, or around 3rd-4th place. Thats too high to me, so lets adjust it 50% AGAIN like you say. thats 738 votes or so, good for like 7th or 8th. So he'll place between 3rd and 8th, and 700-800 is about the range i said was pessimistic but also realistic.

There, I said something to back it up :D

edit: lets add 100 iowans for good measure - independants and democrats that have seen him on the internet, and might show up to help out, and a few the 55% of antiwar republicans in Iowa who saw him on the debates talk about being against the war but FOR going after Bin Laden. So thats about 800-1500 votes.

Don't forget that they also passed out 13,500 nicely cut DVDs that were specifically made for the straw poll. 3% of that is 405. So I'll add that to your 1475 for 1880. Plus another 75 who convert to Paul after arriving. 1955 is my guess.

[Darren McFillintheBlank]

..

[Cowlesy]

Oops sorry, I'm admittedly awful about knowing how to use all the stuff on this board. The briefing was nice, it was barebones (which I like, because I don't want him to waste campaign dough on steak) and we all had time to ask Congressman Paul some direct questions. Ron's whole family was there including the granddaughters (some cuties!), and Mrs. Paul was just absolutely terrific. I feel like they should leverage her being such a terrific lady more. Lew gave a quick briefing, and several folks asked some tough questions---he probably learned a bit what to expect of supporters who kick in the loot as he didn't have answers to everything (didn't expect him to, but they were valid questions in my opinion).

Send me a PM if you need more info.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

I predict 103,974 hmmm I guess I have to be realistic, eh? 478,095 yup.. around there :P

[aknappjr]

Compare your guesses to the actual #: 1305 votes

I was off by 305 votes for my 2nd guess, so should donate $30 to the campaign.