FreedomLover
08-07-2007, 03:15 PM
These two articles are from CNN back in August of 1999. I hope they help to show the mechanics of the Ames Straw Poll and how it works to those who may not know much about it and to see the sheer tenacity that some candidates will show to win this thing. I also hope it helps people to set better predictions and expectations so they are better prepared for whatever the result.
For Ron Paul to show up and get top 6 would be an amazing, and the cost-to-result ratio would make the other candidates look like complete stooges.
These are how well-oiled political machines prepare for these events, I thought it was very insightful.
I bolded the important parts for fast and easy reading. :cool:
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/08/14/behind.the.scene/
A behind-the-scenes look at the Iowa straw poll
August 15, 1999
Web posted at: 5:51 p.m. EDT (2151 GMT)
AMES, Iowa (AllPolitics, August 15) -- Iowa's GOP straw poll seemed to go off without a hitch Saturday -- thanks to months of planning by the presidential candidates' campaigns. CNN talked to the top three teams to get an inside look at the effort.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this story:
A behind-the-scenes look at the Iowa straw poll
Big money: The Forbes effort
Downplaying expectations: Getting to third
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home of the first-in-the-nation presidential caucus, Iowa is known for grassroots organizing. The straw poll -- where grassroots organization, details and timing are key -- served as a dry run for the campaigns.
For example, the Hilton Coliseum can hold only 13,800 people, so Texas Gov. George W. Bush's campaign wanted to get all their people in as soon as the doors opened. But as of 3 p.m., they were still waiting for another "quarter" of their buses to arrive, a Bush spokeswoman said.
Eventually, when more than 24,000 people showed up to participate -- well over the original estimates -- the effort to get people in the door became a bigger issue.
Fire marshals were forced to shut people out when the building reached its maximum capacity, just before the candidates' speeches were to begin. As a result, frustrated participants were forced to wait in lines outside the building hoping to still be able to vote. The state party said that if people were in line at 8:15 p.m., they could still vote. There were 18 voting places inside.
The first-place effort: The Bush machine
All along, the Bush campaign did not want to buy into the expectation game.
Their candidate entered the straw poll contest just "63 days," before it was held, said Bush's communications director, Karen Hughes.
Quietly, the operation set its goal on getting 5,000 votes. Their Iowa leadership and the national campaign political leadership organized chairmen in 90 of the 99 counties, as well as 90 "farm chairmen." There were 100 additional team captains that were responsible for bringing 10 participants each to the straw poll.
"We set our spending limit at $750,000," Hughes acknowledged.
But Hughes said that they bought more tickets at the end.
Ultimately, the campaign distributed more than 10,000 tickets. The Bush operation hired 59 buses and also had a shuttle running every 15 minutes from Des Moines to Ames.
Knowing that the stakes were high, the Bush campaign appeared to be the only operation with a visible mechanism to determine if people voted for their candidate. At the Bush sign-in tent, registrants got a pass to wear into the Coliseum. Once they voted, their pass would get a "W" sticker and only then could they collect a coveted Bush shirt.
Big money: The Forbes effort
The campaign of two-time presidential candidate and multimillionaire magazine publisher Steve Forbes spent the most money on the straw poll, reaching close to $2 million. Half of that was spent on television ads.
All along, the Forbes strategy was to show that Bush did not have the race locked up, not to win the straw poll outright. The Forbes campaign filled about 109 buses, according to National Campaign Chairman Ken Blackwell.
Another top Forbes adviser said that they rented the buses from Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin. "We started lining up the buses two months ago," the aide said.
There were long lines running down the street and around the corner to register at the Forbes tent. "We are organized for over 5,000 people, but we will be over that," Blackwell claimed.
And they were. Another top Forbes adviser said that they bought over 7,000 tickets for people. Not all of those people ended up voting for Forbes.
The Forbes adviser said that they had both county and team captains. "There were 1,400 plus team captains," the aide said. Seventy-seven counties had a chairman. When registrants signed in, they got a T-shirt, a copy of Forbes' book and a baseball cap.
The Forbes campaign appeared to be the only campaign with a visible whip organization on the floor of the Coliseum. Their aides, all dressed in navy blazers for the most part, had earpieces so they could communicate with the rest of the operation.
Downplaying expectations: Getting to third
Going into the straw poll, the campaign of former Red Cross head and former Labor Secretary Elizabeth Dole was reticent to make predictions as to how well their candidate would do.
Clearly, they did not put the same amount of money into the effort as did the top two contenders, spending a mere $250,000.
Still, by bringing new participants to the straw poll, Dole won the sought-after third-place finish. Bush and Forbes had been predicted to win the top two spots; the race for third was still in question.
To get there, the Dole campaign hired 50 buses from Iowa and nearby states.
"We distributed over 5,000 tickets, and about 3,000 of those actually showed up," Dole Communications Director Ari Fleischer said. "We brought in a lot of new participants. Three-quarters of our supporters here were new to the straw poll."
In the end, the event that pulled in a record number of participants proved that grassroots organizing is alive and well in Iowa. So as the campaigns prepare for the Iowa caucus five months away, their dress rehearsal may have provided invaluable lessons -- at least, for the top three.
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/08/14/iowa.saturday.02/
Bush wins Iowa GOP straw poll
By Janine Yagielski and Kathleen Hayden/ AllPolitics
August 15, 1999
Web posted at: 12:18 a.m. EDT (0418 GMT)
AMES, Iowa (CNN) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush won the Iowa Republican straw poll Saturday, capturing 7,418 votes and possibly taking his first big step toward becoming the 2000 GOP presidential nominee.
Bush's total represented about 31 percent of the 23,685 votes cast. Publisher Steve Forbes finished second with 4,921 votes, followed by former Red Cross Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole with 3,410 votes.
They were trailed by social conservative Gary Bauer, conservative commentator Pat Buchanan, former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, conservative commentator Alan Keyes, former Vice President Dan Quayle, Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, in that order.
Alexander's disappointing sixth-place finish may force him out of the race, CNN has learned. He is expected to make the announcement next week.
"We met our expectations and we won this straw poll the Iowa way -- neighbor to neighbor," Bush told supporters immediately after the numbers were announced.
TOTAL VOTES: 23,685
votes %
Bush 7418 31%
Forbes 4921 21%
Dole 3410 14%
Bauer 2114 9%
Buchanan 1719 7%
Alexander 1428 6%
Keyes 1101 5%
Quayle 916 4%
Hatch 558 2%
McCain 83 --
Kasich 9 --
Smith 8 --
The number of votes Bush received was a record, but his winning percentage was not. The percentage was bested by Bush's father, former President George Bush, in the 1979 straw poll (35.7 percent) and by Pat Robertson in the 1987 straw poll (34 percent).
Bush Communications Director Karen Hughes admitted the campaign spent "a little more" than a self-imposed spending cap of $750,000 because it needed to buy additional $25 tickets to the event Saturday. In total, the Bush operation distributed 10,500 tickets, she said.
Forbes' second-place finish also was no surprise. And in down-ballot jockeying that may determine which candidates can raise enough funds and support to remain viable, Dole showed she could organize supporters for a major political event.
"The wind is out of the sails of inevitability. Two-thirds of the Republicans here are not ready to crown the emperor," Greg Mueller, Forbes' senior communications adviser, said after the results were announced.
The Elizabeth Dole campaign is "thrilled" with their third place finish
Dole aide Tony Fabrizio said the campaign was "thrilled" with their third place finish. "We came and did what we needed to do. Everyone was writing us off for dead," Fabrizio said.
Another closely-watched Iowa race was between social conservatives Quayle, Bauer, Buchanan and Keyes. Asked if his fourth place finish means that he won over that key constituency, Bauer said: "I think we're in the process of winning it."
The announcement capped a long day of campaigning, speech-making and celebrating for Iowa Republicans. Earlier in the evening, each of the nine candidates delivered 10-minute pitches to the more than 13,000 cheering Iowans gathered in Ames' Hilton Coliseum. With common themes of lower taxes, more farm friendly trade policy, the virtues of President Ronald Reagan and the evils of President Bill Clinton the candidates layed out their visions for why they should be the Republican nominee.
Bush, the odds-on favorite to win the day's event, acknowledged that going from governor of Texas to president of the United States is a "big step." "I'm under no illusions," Bush said.
But Bush said he was qualified to lead -- "I'm a uniter, not a divider" -- and to keep the strong economy going. "A great country does not live by prosperity alone. Prosperity must have a greater purpose," he said, repeating a common theme of his campaign.
As the other candidates took their turn at lectern, many took aim at the pack front-runner, though not by name, argued that Bush has not yet wrapped up the GOP nomination.
"I'm running for the second time because I know our nomination can't be bought, it shouldn't be inherited, it ought to be earned. And I'm in Ames, Iowa to earn it," said Alexander.
Lamar Alexander is expected to announce that he is dropping out of the race
Quayle touted his foreign policy experience, and in a barely veiled swipe at Bush, said he did not need on-the-job training.
Despite his eighth-place showing, Quayle spokesman Jonathan Baron said that, unlike Alexander, the former vice president will not drop out of the race. "He is in until Iowa (caucus) and New Hampshire (primary) next year. There will be no reassessment, no ambiguity, no wiggle room."
Other consistent targets in the GOP speeches was Vice President Al Gore, the current leader of the Democrats' presidential sweepstakes, and the Clinton Adminstration. Buchanan joined Keyes in a scathing criticism of President Bill Clinton's moral values, saying the first thing he would do as president is tell Clinton: "You have the right to remain silent."
But Buchanan ended his speech sounding like a candidate who may be about to leave the field. Saying, "I've had a long good career in politics" and quoting Lincoln, he added, "I see the storm coming and I know His hand is in it. But if there's a place and a part for me, I believe I am ready."
After an extensive pre-speech demonstration that included fireworks, horns and a balloon drop three times the size of any other candidate's, Forbes moved to his favorite issue -- scrapping the federal tax code.
Pat Buchanan's straw poll speech criticized President Clinton
Forbes said Americans should "kill it, drive a stake through it's heart and hope it never rises again."
A frequent visitor to Iowa, Forbes' goal was to challenge Bush for the top spot. He did win the title of biggest spender: Estimates of Forbes' bill in Iowa come in around $2 million. He even had an air-conditioned tent.
The formal pomp and circumstance of the event kicked off earlier in the afternoon as a dance mix intoning "You all ready for this?" blasted from the auditorium speakers. Each of the nine participating candidates jogged onto the stage as his or her name was announced. The spectacle continued with fireworks going off at the end of the singing of the national anthem.
Throughout the day, candidates visited supporters outside the coliseum, hosting parties for the thousands who were bused to the event. Each campaign had a tent where attendees enjoyed free food and entertainment and the carnival-like atmosphere.
While technically a fund-raiser for the state Republican party, the Iowa straw poll has taken on added importance this year with the early start to this year's primary season.
Dole and Alexander, who both may have needed strong showings to remain viable as potential alternatives to Bush, both concentrated much of respective messages on the issue of education. Following her speech, Dole was joined on the stage by her husband, former Sen. Bob Dole, the 1996 GOP nominee.
The event dates back to 1979. Any Iowa resident who will be of voting age in November 2000 could buy a ticket and cast a ballot in the mock election, which also serves as a fund-raiser for the Iowa Republican Party.
Tickets cost $25 each, but few pay their own way. Most have received complimentary tickets from a campaign looking for a guaranteed vote.
For Ron Paul to show up and get top 6 would be an amazing, and the cost-to-result ratio would make the other candidates look like complete stooges.
These are how well-oiled political machines prepare for these events, I thought it was very insightful.
I bolded the important parts for fast and easy reading. :cool:
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/08/14/behind.the.scene/
A behind-the-scenes look at the Iowa straw poll
August 15, 1999
Web posted at: 5:51 p.m. EDT (2151 GMT)
AMES, Iowa (AllPolitics, August 15) -- Iowa's GOP straw poll seemed to go off without a hitch Saturday -- thanks to months of planning by the presidential candidates' campaigns. CNN talked to the top three teams to get an inside look at the effort.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this story:
A behind-the-scenes look at the Iowa straw poll
Big money: The Forbes effort
Downplaying expectations: Getting to third
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home of the first-in-the-nation presidential caucus, Iowa is known for grassroots organizing. The straw poll -- where grassroots organization, details and timing are key -- served as a dry run for the campaigns.
For example, the Hilton Coliseum can hold only 13,800 people, so Texas Gov. George W. Bush's campaign wanted to get all their people in as soon as the doors opened. But as of 3 p.m., they were still waiting for another "quarter" of their buses to arrive, a Bush spokeswoman said.
Eventually, when more than 24,000 people showed up to participate -- well over the original estimates -- the effort to get people in the door became a bigger issue.
Fire marshals were forced to shut people out when the building reached its maximum capacity, just before the candidates' speeches were to begin. As a result, frustrated participants were forced to wait in lines outside the building hoping to still be able to vote. The state party said that if people were in line at 8:15 p.m., they could still vote. There were 18 voting places inside.
The first-place effort: The Bush machine
All along, the Bush campaign did not want to buy into the expectation game.
Their candidate entered the straw poll contest just "63 days," before it was held, said Bush's communications director, Karen Hughes.
Quietly, the operation set its goal on getting 5,000 votes. Their Iowa leadership and the national campaign political leadership organized chairmen in 90 of the 99 counties, as well as 90 "farm chairmen." There were 100 additional team captains that were responsible for bringing 10 participants each to the straw poll.
"We set our spending limit at $750,000," Hughes acknowledged.
But Hughes said that they bought more tickets at the end.
Ultimately, the campaign distributed more than 10,000 tickets. The Bush operation hired 59 buses and also had a shuttle running every 15 minutes from Des Moines to Ames.
Knowing that the stakes were high, the Bush campaign appeared to be the only operation with a visible mechanism to determine if people voted for their candidate. At the Bush sign-in tent, registrants got a pass to wear into the Coliseum. Once they voted, their pass would get a "W" sticker and only then could they collect a coveted Bush shirt.
Big money: The Forbes effort
The campaign of two-time presidential candidate and multimillionaire magazine publisher Steve Forbes spent the most money on the straw poll, reaching close to $2 million. Half of that was spent on television ads.
All along, the Forbes strategy was to show that Bush did not have the race locked up, not to win the straw poll outright. The Forbes campaign filled about 109 buses, according to National Campaign Chairman Ken Blackwell.
Another top Forbes adviser said that they rented the buses from Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin. "We started lining up the buses two months ago," the aide said.
There were long lines running down the street and around the corner to register at the Forbes tent. "We are organized for over 5,000 people, but we will be over that," Blackwell claimed.
And they were. Another top Forbes adviser said that they bought over 7,000 tickets for people. Not all of those people ended up voting for Forbes.
The Forbes adviser said that they had both county and team captains. "There were 1,400 plus team captains," the aide said. Seventy-seven counties had a chairman. When registrants signed in, they got a T-shirt, a copy of Forbes' book and a baseball cap.
The Forbes campaign appeared to be the only campaign with a visible whip organization on the floor of the Coliseum. Their aides, all dressed in navy blazers for the most part, had earpieces so they could communicate with the rest of the operation.
Downplaying expectations: Getting to third
Going into the straw poll, the campaign of former Red Cross head and former Labor Secretary Elizabeth Dole was reticent to make predictions as to how well their candidate would do.
Clearly, they did not put the same amount of money into the effort as did the top two contenders, spending a mere $250,000.
Still, by bringing new participants to the straw poll, Dole won the sought-after third-place finish. Bush and Forbes had been predicted to win the top two spots; the race for third was still in question.
To get there, the Dole campaign hired 50 buses from Iowa and nearby states.
"We distributed over 5,000 tickets, and about 3,000 of those actually showed up," Dole Communications Director Ari Fleischer said. "We brought in a lot of new participants. Three-quarters of our supporters here were new to the straw poll."
In the end, the event that pulled in a record number of participants proved that grassroots organizing is alive and well in Iowa. So as the campaigns prepare for the Iowa caucus five months away, their dress rehearsal may have provided invaluable lessons -- at least, for the top three.
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/08/14/iowa.saturday.02/
Bush wins Iowa GOP straw poll
By Janine Yagielski and Kathleen Hayden/ AllPolitics
August 15, 1999
Web posted at: 12:18 a.m. EDT (0418 GMT)
AMES, Iowa (CNN) -- Texas Gov. George W. Bush won the Iowa Republican straw poll Saturday, capturing 7,418 votes and possibly taking his first big step toward becoming the 2000 GOP presidential nominee.
Bush's total represented about 31 percent of the 23,685 votes cast. Publisher Steve Forbes finished second with 4,921 votes, followed by former Red Cross Chairwoman Elizabeth Dole with 3,410 votes.
They were trailed by social conservative Gary Bauer, conservative commentator Pat Buchanan, former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, conservative commentator Alan Keyes, former Vice President Dan Quayle, Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, in that order.
Alexander's disappointing sixth-place finish may force him out of the race, CNN has learned. He is expected to make the announcement next week.
"We met our expectations and we won this straw poll the Iowa way -- neighbor to neighbor," Bush told supporters immediately after the numbers were announced.
TOTAL VOTES: 23,685
votes %
Bush 7418 31%
Forbes 4921 21%
Dole 3410 14%
Bauer 2114 9%
Buchanan 1719 7%
Alexander 1428 6%
Keyes 1101 5%
Quayle 916 4%
Hatch 558 2%
McCain 83 --
Kasich 9 --
Smith 8 --
The number of votes Bush received was a record, but his winning percentage was not. The percentage was bested by Bush's father, former President George Bush, in the 1979 straw poll (35.7 percent) and by Pat Robertson in the 1987 straw poll (34 percent).
Bush Communications Director Karen Hughes admitted the campaign spent "a little more" than a self-imposed spending cap of $750,000 because it needed to buy additional $25 tickets to the event Saturday. In total, the Bush operation distributed 10,500 tickets, she said.
Forbes' second-place finish also was no surprise. And in down-ballot jockeying that may determine which candidates can raise enough funds and support to remain viable, Dole showed she could organize supporters for a major political event.
"The wind is out of the sails of inevitability. Two-thirds of the Republicans here are not ready to crown the emperor," Greg Mueller, Forbes' senior communications adviser, said after the results were announced.
The Elizabeth Dole campaign is "thrilled" with their third place finish
Dole aide Tony Fabrizio said the campaign was "thrilled" with their third place finish. "We came and did what we needed to do. Everyone was writing us off for dead," Fabrizio said.
Another closely-watched Iowa race was between social conservatives Quayle, Bauer, Buchanan and Keyes. Asked if his fourth place finish means that he won over that key constituency, Bauer said: "I think we're in the process of winning it."
The announcement capped a long day of campaigning, speech-making and celebrating for Iowa Republicans. Earlier in the evening, each of the nine candidates delivered 10-minute pitches to the more than 13,000 cheering Iowans gathered in Ames' Hilton Coliseum. With common themes of lower taxes, more farm friendly trade policy, the virtues of President Ronald Reagan and the evils of President Bill Clinton the candidates layed out their visions for why they should be the Republican nominee.
Bush, the odds-on favorite to win the day's event, acknowledged that going from governor of Texas to president of the United States is a "big step." "I'm under no illusions," Bush said.
But Bush said he was qualified to lead -- "I'm a uniter, not a divider" -- and to keep the strong economy going. "A great country does not live by prosperity alone. Prosperity must have a greater purpose," he said, repeating a common theme of his campaign.
As the other candidates took their turn at lectern, many took aim at the pack front-runner, though not by name, argued that Bush has not yet wrapped up the GOP nomination.
"I'm running for the second time because I know our nomination can't be bought, it shouldn't be inherited, it ought to be earned. And I'm in Ames, Iowa to earn it," said Alexander.
Lamar Alexander is expected to announce that he is dropping out of the race
Quayle touted his foreign policy experience, and in a barely veiled swipe at Bush, said he did not need on-the-job training.
Despite his eighth-place showing, Quayle spokesman Jonathan Baron said that, unlike Alexander, the former vice president will not drop out of the race. "He is in until Iowa (caucus) and New Hampshire (primary) next year. There will be no reassessment, no ambiguity, no wiggle room."
Other consistent targets in the GOP speeches was Vice President Al Gore, the current leader of the Democrats' presidential sweepstakes, and the Clinton Adminstration. Buchanan joined Keyes in a scathing criticism of President Bill Clinton's moral values, saying the first thing he would do as president is tell Clinton: "You have the right to remain silent."
But Buchanan ended his speech sounding like a candidate who may be about to leave the field. Saying, "I've had a long good career in politics" and quoting Lincoln, he added, "I see the storm coming and I know His hand is in it. But if there's a place and a part for me, I believe I am ready."
After an extensive pre-speech demonstration that included fireworks, horns and a balloon drop three times the size of any other candidate's, Forbes moved to his favorite issue -- scrapping the federal tax code.
Pat Buchanan's straw poll speech criticized President Clinton
Forbes said Americans should "kill it, drive a stake through it's heart and hope it never rises again."
A frequent visitor to Iowa, Forbes' goal was to challenge Bush for the top spot. He did win the title of biggest spender: Estimates of Forbes' bill in Iowa come in around $2 million. He even had an air-conditioned tent.
The formal pomp and circumstance of the event kicked off earlier in the afternoon as a dance mix intoning "You all ready for this?" blasted from the auditorium speakers. Each of the nine participating candidates jogged onto the stage as his or her name was announced. The spectacle continued with fireworks going off at the end of the singing of the national anthem.
Throughout the day, candidates visited supporters outside the coliseum, hosting parties for the thousands who were bused to the event. Each campaign had a tent where attendees enjoyed free food and entertainment and the carnival-like atmosphere.
While technically a fund-raiser for the state Republican party, the Iowa straw poll has taken on added importance this year with the early start to this year's primary season.
Dole and Alexander, who both may have needed strong showings to remain viable as potential alternatives to Bush, both concentrated much of respective messages on the issue of education. Following her speech, Dole was joined on the stage by her husband, former Sen. Bob Dole, the 1996 GOP nominee.
The event dates back to 1979. Any Iowa resident who will be of voting age in November 2000 could buy a ticket and cast a ballot in the mock election, which also serves as a fund-raiser for the Iowa Republican Party.
Tickets cost $25 each, but few pay their own way. Most have received complimentary tickets from a campaign looking for a guaranteed vote.