heath.whiteaker
02-04-2008, 12:18 AM
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/349849_camfi04.html?source=mypi
State pays off for Paul, Obama
Number of donors gives edge to candidates in caucuses
By DANIEL LATHROP
P-I REPORTER
Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama are in position to show up their opponents in Washington's presidential caucuses this weekend thanks to surging numbers of campaign donors.
Paul, a Texas congressman, is running fourth of the four remaining GOP candidates, but he's poised for a dramatic showing -- even a victory -- in Saturday's caucuses, according to a Seattle P-I analysis of campaign finance documents.
Obama, locked in a tough, two-person race with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, has captured momentum in the Evergreen State, even with both of Washington's U.S. senators endorsing Clinton, the analysis shows.
Illinois Sen. Obama and Paul have built the largest networks of local supporters among the candidates.
Campaign finance filings reveal that Obama had 2,600 reported donors in Washington -- more than three times the number backing Clinton, according to Jan. 31 campaign filings detailing the last three months of 2007.
On the Republican side, Paul reported more than 1,000 donors, giving him the edge over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 700 and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 500, filings show. All donors of $200 or more must be disclosed in the filings.
The edge in donors is important because those are the same dedicated partisans likely to spend their Saturday at Washington's precinct caucuses.
Far less is at stake in terms of delegates Saturday than will be decided in Tuesday's multistate electoral bonanza, and any of the candidates could concede defeat before Washingtonians have their say.
Still, every candidate who survives Super Tuesday will look to Washington as a major battleground, according to state GOP chairman Luke Esser.
"The one lesson of the campaign so far is how unpredictable it's been," he said.
Paul faces the easier task in capitalizing on his advantage: he is in a four-person race and can win or place with less than a majority.
Additionally, with 15 percent of those donors in Seattle, where Republican turnout is lighter than in GOP strongholds, strong turnout for Paul could roll up precinct-level wins in Seattle and similar, normally Democratic areas.
With the campaigns' early focus on states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, Washingtonians have played the role of financial backers rather than direct participants. None of the candidates created organizations here early on, and each must now scramble to identify and turn out backers who will support them at precinct caucuses. As a result, the candidate with the most donors -- large contributions or small -- has a leg up.
On top of his edge in committed donors, Paul has dispatched a half-dozen paid staffers to the state and opened a campaign office in the University District.
"We think that we can have a very good effect for our purposes using the caucus process just by turning our people out," said Jeremiah Galli, Paul's organizer here.
The caucus process chooses all the delegates elected to the Democratic convention but only half those going to the Republican convention. Republicans choose half their delegates in the Feb. 19 primary. In that contest, even Galli concedes Paul remains a long shot compared with better-known candidates.
"When it's that easy for people to vote, many people are just going to do it. (But) a lot of people aren't willing to give up their Saturday to sit at a party meeting," he said.
While basing a Republican campaign in one of the most liberal parts of the most liberal city in the state is unusual, Paul's campaign is gaining traction among young people with his anti-war, pro-civil liberties agenda.
Romney is banking on an aggressive grass-roots campaign of his own in Washington.
"We do have an active campaign organization in nearly every county around the state, and everybody is enthusiastic and working hard," said Garry Pagan, Romney's state coordinator.
McCain's and Clinton's deficit in on-the-ground support is in contrast with the high-profile support both have received from state political leaders.
McCain is endorsed by Secretary of State Sam Reed and Attorney General Rob McKenna, while Clinton has the backing of Rep. Jay Inslee and U.S. Sens. Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray.
Asked why McCain lags behind in fundraising in Washington, Mike McKay, co-chairman of McCain's state campaign steering committee, said, "I think we all have to admit that we had a significant (financial) bump in the road last summer and went into the financial doldrums, to mix metaphors."
McKay said fundraising has picked up considerably since that nose dive, which had some analysts pronouncing the McCain campaign all but dead.
While Obama and Paul had more donors in the state, the average contribution to each was lower than to their opponents.
In Obama's Washington campaign, the average donor gave $700, for a total of $1.7 million, according to the Federal Election Commission tabulation of donors of $200 or more.
Clinton's per-donor rate was $1,200, totaling $992,000. Paul donors gave an average of $500, totaling $551,000; McCain had a $700 average and $339,000 total; and Romney donors averaged $1,000 for a total of $707,000.
On the Democratic side, another wild card is what supporters of former Sen. John Edwards will do now that he is out of the race.
More than 1,000 Washingtonians donated to his campaign before he bowed out, records show. Both camps hope to attract them.
One of Edwards' chief organizers in the state, Seattle attorney Jenny Durkan, announced late last week that she is backing Obama.
P-I reporter Neil Modie contributed to this report. P-I reporter Daniel Lathrop can be reached at 206-448-8157 or daniellathrop@seattlepi.com.
State pays off for Paul, Obama
Number of donors gives edge to candidates in caucuses
By DANIEL LATHROP
P-I REPORTER
Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama are in position to show up their opponents in Washington's presidential caucuses this weekend thanks to surging numbers of campaign donors.
Paul, a Texas congressman, is running fourth of the four remaining GOP candidates, but he's poised for a dramatic showing -- even a victory -- in Saturday's caucuses, according to a Seattle P-I analysis of campaign finance documents.
Obama, locked in a tough, two-person race with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, has captured momentum in the Evergreen State, even with both of Washington's U.S. senators endorsing Clinton, the analysis shows.
Illinois Sen. Obama and Paul have built the largest networks of local supporters among the candidates.
Campaign finance filings reveal that Obama had 2,600 reported donors in Washington -- more than three times the number backing Clinton, according to Jan. 31 campaign filings detailing the last three months of 2007.
On the Republican side, Paul reported more than 1,000 donors, giving him the edge over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 700 and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 500, filings show. All donors of $200 or more must be disclosed in the filings.
The edge in donors is important because those are the same dedicated partisans likely to spend their Saturday at Washington's precinct caucuses.
Far less is at stake in terms of delegates Saturday than will be decided in Tuesday's multistate electoral bonanza, and any of the candidates could concede defeat before Washingtonians have their say.
Still, every candidate who survives Super Tuesday will look to Washington as a major battleground, according to state GOP chairman Luke Esser.
"The one lesson of the campaign so far is how unpredictable it's been," he said.
Paul faces the easier task in capitalizing on his advantage: he is in a four-person race and can win or place with less than a majority.
Additionally, with 15 percent of those donors in Seattle, where Republican turnout is lighter than in GOP strongholds, strong turnout for Paul could roll up precinct-level wins in Seattle and similar, normally Democratic areas.
With the campaigns' early focus on states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, Washingtonians have played the role of financial backers rather than direct participants. None of the candidates created organizations here early on, and each must now scramble to identify and turn out backers who will support them at precinct caucuses. As a result, the candidate with the most donors -- large contributions or small -- has a leg up.
On top of his edge in committed donors, Paul has dispatched a half-dozen paid staffers to the state and opened a campaign office in the University District.
"We think that we can have a very good effect for our purposes using the caucus process just by turning our people out," said Jeremiah Galli, Paul's organizer here.
The caucus process chooses all the delegates elected to the Democratic convention but only half those going to the Republican convention. Republicans choose half their delegates in the Feb. 19 primary. In that contest, even Galli concedes Paul remains a long shot compared with better-known candidates.
"When it's that easy for people to vote, many people are just going to do it. (But) a lot of people aren't willing to give up their Saturday to sit at a party meeting," he said.
While basing a Republican campaign in one of the most liberal parts of the most liberal city in the state is unusual, Paul's campaign is gaining traction among young people with his anti-war, pro-civil liberties agenda.
Romney is banking on an aggressive grass-roots campaign of his own in Washington.
"We do have an active campaign organization in nearly every county around the state, and everybody is enthusiastic and working hard," said Garry Pagan, Romney's state coordinator.
McCain's and Clinton's deficit in on-the-ground support is in contrast with the high-profile support both have received from state political leaders.
McCain is endorsed by Secretary of State Sam Reed and Attorney General Rob McKenna, while Clinton has the backing of Rep. Jay Inslee and U.S. Sens. Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray.
Asked why McCain lags behind in fundraising in Washington, Mike McKay, co-chairman of McCain's state campaign steering committee, said, "I think we all have to admit that we had a significant (financial) bump in the road last summer and went into the financial doldrums, to mix metaphors."
McKay said fundraising has picked up considerably since that nose dive, which had some analysts pronouncing the McCain campaign all but dead.
While Obama and Paul had more donors in the state, the average contribution to each was lower than to their opponents.
In Obama's Washington campaign, the average donor gave $700, for a total of $1.7 million, according to the Federal Election Commission tabulation of donors of $200 or more.
Clinton's per-donor rate was $1,200, totaling $992,000. Paul donors gave an average of $500, totaling $551,000; McCain had a $700 average and $339,000 total; and Romney donors averaged $1,000 for a total of $707,000.
On the Democratic side, another wild card is what supporters of former Sen. John Edwards will do now that he is out of the race.
More than 1,000 Washingtonians donated to his campaign before he bowed out, records show. Both camps hope to attract them.
One of Edwards' chief organizers in the state, Seattle attorney Jenny Durkan, announced late last week that she is backing Obama.
P-I reporter Neil Modie contributed to this report. P-I reporter Daniel Lathrop can be reached at 206-448-8157 or daniellathrop@seattlepi.com.