Why We'll be Cheering When They Announce the Results in Ames

[Dave]

About 3 weeks ago I made my assessment of where the candidates would finish in Ames – based on may read of things at that time.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=8654

Of course the dynamics here in Iowa have changed in the last 3 weeks but I’m not making an updated prediction. I will say this…

When the results are announced Saturday at 7:00 PM (don’t be surprised if it ends up being later – you know how these things go) I’ll be cheering and turning cartwheels no matter where Ron Paul finishes. I’ll be celebrating and high-fiving like I just won the lottery even if we come in 10th (don’t worry - we won’t).

Why? Because at Ames you’re not competing with the other candidates so much as you’re competing with your own expectations. Imagine – if Romney gets 10% it will terminate his candidacy but if John Cox got 10% it would give him newfound credibility. Wherever we finish we want to convey the message to the media and supporters of other candidates that we are blown away with our success. If there are any long faces when the results are announced that negative energy will be picked up on and interpreted as us having failed. If the supporters of other candidates who fail to meet expectations see our excitement then they might take a look at moving into the Ron Paul camp. Enthusiasm and fun are contagious.

If we finish 7th or 6th I will drive home thinking we did fine and we will keep pushing forward to the caucuses and primaries. 5th or higher means were smokin’ hot because we knocked off someone who:

Spent tons of time on the ground in Iowa
Spent tons of money in Iowa
Paid to transport Iowans to Ames
Bought tickets for Iowans to cast their votes.So if we finish 5th or higher we should be delighted with our momentum. Anything less than 3rd will terminate some of these other candidates because they’re running out of money and had bet all their chips on Iowa. Ron Paul will march on with money in the bank and growing national support.

Of course the higher we finish the better, but I won’t be the least bit disappointed or discouraged if we’re not in the top 5 at Ames. I’ll stand and cheer and keep spreading the word about Ron Paul!

[Andrew76]

"Wherever we finish we want to convey the message to the media and supporters of other candidates that we are blown away with our success. If there are any long faces when the results are announced that negative energy will be picked up on and interpreted as us having failed."


YES! Spread this message around. What a great observation.

[ghemminger]

YEAH Great IDEA.....change the paradigm....6th PLACE IS FANTASTIC....7th is GREAT!!!!:D

HEy all the really counts is we have the support...Loacally and NAtionally

[johnrocks]

I think he will come in second but only because Romney is buying votes. He may even win it(from my fingertips to God's ears),of course anywhere in top 3-4 will be terrific!!

[beermotor]

Concur, with enthusiasm and gusto!

[Ron Paul Fan]

I agree Dave. Even though you tried to bring down people's expectations three weeks ago, there are still people who think he'll win or say that anything less than 4th is a failure. I agree with you that anything above 6th place is a tremendous success for a candidate who has essentially only been in Iowa a week while others have been there for months. Dr. Paul is at 2% in the Iowa Republican poll so anything around 5% or higher would be a big win.

[brumans]

It's pretty obvious to me that Ron Paul is going to get 1st place.

[Johnnybags]

I think he will come in second but only because Romney is buying votes. He may even win it(from my fingertips to God's ears),of course anywhere in top 3-4 will be terrific!!

Only because we are talking an Iowa only poll, they do not know him yet, all that matters is he keeps the money coming and gets press at this point, free press. He will not come in 1-2 and maybe not 3-4, my guess is 5th in a close race between 3-4-5. If he comes in 2nd in a close race with Romney the polical attacks will be nonstop. We do not need this yet, just a building war chest and die hard grass roots.Unless every liberterian and constitution party member in the state shows up and 2000 democrats to skew it which would be funny, then the world we be turned upside down.

[USPatriot36]

It is all about exceeding expectations. That is why most all of the campaigns work hard to lower expectations. The media has set the expectations for Ron Paul so low that we will certainly exceed expectations set by the MSM. They routinely claim he polls at 1-2 percent. So if we hit 10 percent that is a home run. We just need to keep our expectations low so that we appreciate a 10 percent showing.

[ARealConservative]

It's pretty obvious to me that Ron Paul is going to get 1st place.

wow - I don't know where that is coming from.

Alot of people don't realize that Guliani, McCain, and even Fred Thompson will be choices on the poll.

In years past skipping the poll meant not doing well, but when all the top dogs skip the poll we are sailing in unchartered waters.

I anticipate Guliani and Thompson to get a decent share of votes - fortunately many of those votes will come from people that took Romney's free ticket. :D

To prevent myself from being dissappointed, finishing third is the best I can expect. Now take this as a grain of salt from someone that has lived in Iowa his entire life and has been to the last two straw polls.

[Richie]

Finally! What you just said is a breath of fresh air! It's something that every Ron Paul supporter should hear. This straw poll is not the primary. It's a small percentage of one state. If we do terrible (which as you put it, isn't terrible!), that just means one of two things. One of them is, of course, voter fraud. That's been talked to death, so I'm going to focus on the second. The second reason is simply the fact that if we do terrible, we're going to have to work HARDER! The media would ignore us even more. All of us would have to donate as much as we possibly can.

Those things being said, we aren't going to do terrible. To those who say that there's a good chance that the good doctor will win first - I appreciate your enthusiasm (some of us certainly need more), but Mitt Romney is going to win. As others have said, he's buying votes. However, since the other candidates are not campaigning as hard, the only threat to us is Fred Thompson. HOWEVER, if he knocks us out of second place, technically we'll still be in second place. The man isn't even running! So I predict we will get either second or third place.

[FreedomLover]

For a man whos spent a total of around 5 days in iowa, spent little to no money on media, votes, and buses, and is shunned by most national and local news, getting in the top 6 would be a phenomenal coup that shows the strength of the message that he brings, and the viability of RP as President, and as a person who can truly make people passionate and care about their country's future.

The others can not say that. They can never say that, because we have the better ideas, we have enthusiasm, and we have the willpower to go the distance, whatever the outcome.

[Hurricane Bruiser]

Question. Do Democrats vote at the straw poll also? Or is this just a Republican event. I think it is just a Republican event. Not for sure though. Either way, I guess anyone eligible to vote that is an Iowan could vote in the straw poll.

[torchbearer]

For a man whos spent a total of around 5 days in iowa, spent little to no money on media, votes, and buses, and is shunned by most national and local news, getting in the top 6 would be a phenomenal coup that shows the strength of the message that he brings, and the viability of RP as President, and as a person who can truly make people passionate and care about their country's future.

The others can not say that. They can never say that, because we have the better ideas, we have enthusiasm, and we have the willpower to go the distance, whatever the outcome.

amen brother!

[Nash]

wow - I don't know where that is coming from.

Alot of people don't realize that Guliani, McCain, and even Fred Thompson will be choices on the poll.

In years past skipping the poll meant not doing well, but when all the top dogs skip the poll we are sailing in unchartered waters.

I anticipate Guliani and Thompson to get a decent share of votes - fortunately many of those votes will come from people that took Romney's free ticket. :D

To prevent myself from being dissappointed, finishing third is the best I can expect. Now take this as a grain of salt from someone that has lived in Iowa his entire life and has been to the last two straw polls.

Dave is right. No matter what happens we should be pleased, especially in the eyes of the press.

That being said my expectations are high because:

1) This a straw poll. Activists are voting and not "typical republican voters"
2) You don't even have to be registered republican to vote.

Because of this I expect a strong showing from Paul. If the vote was closed to non-republicans I'd be a lot more reserved, but that is not the case.

It's important to realize that we are becoming the new Republican base, the one thing most Paul supporters have in common is neither the standard dem or repub parties are serving our interests or pushing our message. So we are just going to have to carve out a new one. The new notion here is that instead of going 3rd party or independent we are just going to take over the GOP instead. The stronger Paul gets the more influence we will have in the party.

Although we should try, we don't necessarily have to only win over the existing party as much as we simply need to over-run them with our numbers.

[slantedview]

I approve of this thread. Well said. I'm looking forward to the results now myself :)

[nayjevin]

Why? Because at Ames you’re not competing with the other candidates so much as you’re competing with your own expectations.

thank you sir, that's it right there

[Hurricane Bruiser]

Look at all the people who don't vote. If they can be brought on board, then we can change things.

[Joby]

I think Paul has a reasonable chance to do well. Not many people are going to sit in 90 degree/75% humidity weather to vote for a no-show.

If Paul gets 5% or more, it'll be a nice boost.

[Shatterhand]

I agree that supporters should be happy and enthusiastic both before and after the straw poll votes are declared . . .

And I agree that Dr. Paul might not finish in the top three . . .

But, come on, come on! Let's try and win this thing. Let's dream BIG and go for #1.

Dr. Paul is giving it his all this week in Iowa. The letters are now coming into Iowa from all over the country. Supporters are still making phone calls . . .

Come on, come on! Dream BIG!

[xita]

It's pretty obvious to me that Ron Paul is going to get 1st place.

I hope that you're saying this because you personally are bringing 500+ Iowans to Aimes to Vote for Ron Paul.

If you're just arm chair quarterbacking it, then saying it's pretty obvious he's gonna come in first is pretty silly.

[Eli]

i wish i was in iowa right now!

Being on the sidelines in this event sucks. 5 days is not nearly enough time to canvas a state. I'm very proud of the work the supporters in the state are doing right now though. Their hardwork is incredible.

[akalucas]

A little off topic, but does anybody know how many people the place the candidates are going to speak in Iowa straw poll hold. I think the bigger the better since I think Pauls speech will convince many to vote for him.

[Psyclone]

Hilton coliseum holds approximately 15,000 people. The actual capacity varies depending on the event that is being held (concert, basketball game, Straw Poll speeches, etc.), but always hovers around 15,000 +/- 500 or so.

[Joe Knows]

[SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]Of course the higher we finish the better, but I won’t be the least bit disappointed or discouraged if we’re not in the top 5 at Ames. I’ll stand and cheer and keep spreading the word about Ron Paul!

I won't be disappointed at all if he is not in the top five. How can you expect him to come in any higher when he hasn't been working the state and he is not bribing people with free tickets to vote for him?

[ThePieSwindler]

Dave is right. No matter what happens we should be pleased, especially in the eyes of the press.

That being said my expectations are high because:

1) This a straw poll. Activists are voting and not "typical republican voters"
2) You don't even have to be registered republican to vote.

Because of this I expect a strong showing from Paul. If the vote was closed to non-republicans I'd be a lot more reserved, but that is not the case.

It's important to realize that we are becoming the new Republican base, the one thing most Paul supporters have in common is neither the standard dem or repub parties are serving our interests or pushing our message. So we are just going to have to carve out a new one. The new notion here is that instead of going 3rd party or independent we are just going to take over the GOP instead. The stronger Paul gets the more influence we will have in the party.

Although we should try, we don't necessarily have to only win over the existing party as much as we simply need to over-run them with our numbers.

thats a good point. Fred thompson might get some surprisng numbers, but giuliani will probably be pretty low. In many of the straw polls so far (even though they had smaller sample sizes..) giuliani has been below ron, sometimes even in single digits.

[Shink]

Question. Do Democrats vote at the straw poll also? Or is this just a Republican event. I think it is just a Republican event. Not for sure though. Either way, I guess anyone eligible to vote that is an Iowan could vote in the straw poll.

Apparently it's an open vote. We'll get a good share of Dem/Indy votes, I think.

[mtmedlin]

If he comes in tenth I wont care, because come January in NH it will only be a 5 way race, 4 saying the same thing and RP. I like our chances.

[mconder]

YEAH Great IDEA.....change the paradigm....6th PLACE IS FANTASTIC....7th is GREAT!!!!

The MSN do it all the time and people believe it. 7th is the new 1st ya know.

Regardless of the outcome, I do believe we are obligated to continue spreading the message. Like Ron says, it's the message that's important. If our guy doesn't make it this time, someone else will in the future as long as the message is perpetuated with the same commitment and intensity.

[Chibioz]

Great to hear this from you Dave, that's the right attitude! We all believe in this campaign and we can't let ourselves become disheartened when we've got months of battle still to come.

[EvoPro]

Thanks for this post Dave.

[ronpaulitician]

I have no expectations whatsoever. If the calls I made, the letters I sent, the signs I waved, do not result in a single Iowan casting their vote for Paul, I will still feel empowered at being a participant in the fight for liberty.

[inibo]

It's important to realize that we are becoming the new Republican base

I'm convinced that the local party committees will be the first to recognize this. They are going to start asking themselves why the number of registered Republicans is increasing after they got their asses handed to them in the last election. They are not going to look to closely at this horse's teeth; they are going to jump on for the ride of their lives.

[tiznow]

I disagree Dave. With ron paul hitting the ground hard. Spending money on radio and TV ads. Having some HQ people in the state traveling around (food, travel, hotel expenses). Renting (I assume they are paying for it) out this place in cedar rapids on thursday at the crowne plaza hotel. They have to be blowing through a decent amount of money. A good showing (top 4 which i fully expect) is much more important now than what i thought last week before they made this big late push IMO.

[Buzz]

about 2% of Iowa's voting-age population is predicted to vote in the poll. That's about how many supporters Paul has on average according to the old media polls. We all know that a disproportionate chunk of Paul's support is going to go vote for him compared with the other candidates' support. Also, think of how hard Paul supporters have been working in Iowa to get the message out.

I usually try to keep low expectations to avoid disappointments, but this time my gut is adamant, and it says Paul's going to do really well.

[libertarian4321]

I wouldn't be all that surprised if he doesn't do all that well in Iowa- he'd have a much better chance in NH (far more libertarian leaning). Also, a Republican only event won't accurately reflect the support Dr. Paul will have in the primaries next spring (because of open primaries and many people who will register Republican haven't done so yet).

A lot of folks here are getting really excited about the straw poll, but I'm not sure its all that big of a deal- 2 of the major candidates aren't even bothering to take it seriously.

I'll be glad when this thing is over so we can concentrate on recruiting supporters and raising money NATIONWIDE.

I personally despise the fact that Iowa and NH, two small and not very representative states, have such a huge influence on the nominating process- we should have a single "primary election day" so that the candidates don't focus on 2-3 states while largely ignoring the other 47.

Its just a bit odd to pour tens of millions into tiny NH and Iowa, but ignore CA, NY, TX, etc.

[Badger Paul]

It's good thing then that Iowa GOP County leaders really set the bar for us pretty low, like dead last. Anything above that looks good.

Remember, we have the funding base and the money to go on from Ames, most of the other candidates don't. If we can finish in the top four and I'm praying for top three, we can spin this really, really well and watch the others fall away.

What we're all hoping for is a good showing that really sparks RP's camapaign this fall, to make him a serious candidate, especially when colleges get back into session because that's where I believe his deepest support will come from. I myself am planning a letter writing camapaign to GOP legislators in Minnesota and Wisconsin and a good showing will give those letters credibility, especially if we can have abroad coalition of voters in Ames.

Right now, I don't want to think about expectations. Lets just keep working hard and what happens, happens and we can worry about it afterward.