akalucas
02-03-2008, 12:08 AM
Some people are saying Paul should drop his candidacy. Ron Paul should not drop his candidacy!!...but I do understand some peoples grim analysis of the situation
There's only one way Paul can win the presidential nomination now and all of these 3 things have to happen. If one of them doesnt happen, its over.
1. He has to keep getting a lot of delegates like he is did in Nevada, LA, and Maine.
2. He has to win 5 states! Primary and caucus votes(straw polls) do count, not just delegate nominations. If he doesnt get 5 states he will not meet the requirements for voting if there's a broken convention after first round of voting.
3. There has to be a broken convention so the delegates that support Paul that are bound to another candidate can be unbound to vote for Paul. For there to be a broken convention no candidate can get 50% of delegates in the first round of voting at the convention.
Unfortunately for us the idiot talk shows have been telling people not to vote for Huckabee but to vote for Romney. Problem is the states Romney is coming in second he is on average 15% behind Mccain. In 5 states he is 19-20% behind. No way a signicant amount of people from Huck's camp are going to vote for romney to make a difference, especially that Huck is only pulling 8-13% in most states. so even if all of hucks people vote for romney it will only help Romney win one or two states; like I said this is not going to happen. So what has happened thanks to the talk show convincing some hucks supporters to vote for Romney is that it has actually made it possible for Mccain to get more delegate. The reason is that there was 2 states that Huck was beating McCain but it was only by 1% with Romney trailing at about with about 8-13% of the vote. The new poll numbers came out yesterday and now Huck has lost a lot of votes in these two states and those votes went to Romney, who is still too far to catch up to Mccain. Now mccain has a lead in two more states and one of them is winner take all. Theres was another state that Huckabee was winning by around 6% and that to has gone to mccain cause the votes went to Romney but not enough to put him close to 1st. talk about unintended consequences! now Mccain is going to win 3 more states that otherwise he wouldnt had if talk radio wasnt convincing Huck people that there vote was a waste and they would be better off voting for Romney. Idiots. These 3 states swinging will give Mccain more than 100 delegates. Now he is projected to have 710 delegates instead of 610. He needs to get 1050 i think to reach 50% of delegates.
Paul should not quit even if its dire because the movement will continue to grow and maybe that will either increase his chances of being president/VP or his movement transferring its strength to a independent/libertarian run will increase the chances of that succeeding. Maybe he wont run but he might endorse someone younger and run as his VP. One thing is for sure, this movement should never die off until there is change.
There's only one way Paul can win the presidential nomination now and all of these 3 things have to happen. If one of them doesnt happen, its over.
1. He has to keep getting a lot of delegates like he is did in Nevada, LA, and Maine.
2. He has to win 5 states! Primary and caucus votes(straw polls) do count, not just delegate nominations. If he doesnt get 5 states he will not meet the requirements for voting if there's a broken convention after first round of voting.
3. There has to be a broken convention so the delegates that support Paul that are bound to another candidate can be unbound to vote for Paul. For there to be a broken convention no candidate can get 50% of delegates in the first round of voting at the convention.
Unfortunately for us the idiot talk shows have been telling people not to vote for Huckabee but to vote for Romney. Problem is the states Romney is coming in second he is on average 15% behind Mccain. In 5 states he is 19-20% behind. No way a signicant amount of people from Huck's camp are going to vote for romney to make a difference, especially that Huck is only pulling 8-13% in most states. so even if all of hucks people vote for romney it will only help Romney win one or two states; like I said this is not going to happen. So what has happened thanks to the talk show convincing some hucks supporters to vote for Romney is that it has actually made it possible for Mccain to get more delegate. The reason is that there was 2 states that Huck was beating McCain but it was only by 1% with Romney trailing at about with about 8-13% of the vote. The new poll numbers came out yesterday and now Huck has lost a lot of votes in these two states and those votes went to Romney, who is still too far to catch up to Mccain. Now mccain has a lead in two more states and one of them is winner take all. Theres was another state that Huckabee was winning by around 6% and that to has gone to mccain cause the votes went to Romney but not enough to put him close to 1st. talk about unintended consequences! now Mccain is going to win 3 more states that otherwise he wouldnt had if talk radio wasnt convincing Huck people that there vote was a waste and they would be better off voting for Romney. Idiots. These 3 states swinging will give Mccain more than 100 delegates. Now he is projected to have 710 delegates instead of 610. He needs to get 1050 i think to reach 50% of delegates.
Paul should not quit even if its dire because the movement will continue to grow and maybe that will either increase his chances of being president/VP or his movement transferring its strength to a independent/libertarian run will increase the chances of that succeeding. Maybe he wont run but he might endorse someone younger and run as his VP. One thing is for sure, this movement should never die off until there is change.