I don't understand it

[dspectre]

I come on here and I see most people think that RP won't win the Iowa straw poll. They think that Romney has it in the bag.

Believe me, I have no idea what the trend is, since I'm not there. However, I'm not going to buy the propaganda that RP can only get second at best.

We really don't know what will happen. Yeah, Romney has a lot of money, but his support is very soft. If the wind blows one way, they are going to go the other.

I just don't get this mentality that RP will not win the Ames Straw Poll. I do not trust the general wisdom in this matter.

[jj111]

It's all speculation. If you want to improve the odds, call some Iowans.

[Johnnybags]

Ron just got there this week, Romney and some others have been parked for months, Ron does not have alot of meetup members in Iowa. I would be happy if he knocked off or got close to McCain. I he gains momentum and a few of the others quit because of fundraising, that is fine with me. I expect a 5thish finish and just hope the difference between him an McCain is reasonable. Its all good for now. I am more interested in the energy of the supporters and number of volunteers that show up.

[Ron Paul Fan]

I am in Iowa and a lot of people I've talked to don't know who Ron Paul is yet. You have to remember that he's only been here once before this Sunday. Tommy Thompson did a 99 county bus tour, Huckabee, Browback, Tancredo have all been here campaigning hard. Romney is the candidate in the field with the most name recogntion and he's got the money to pay people to come there and vote for him so he will very likely finish 1st. If he doesn't then he might as well quit the next day.

If Dr. Paul does anything decent then it will be a success in my opinion. Thinking that he will come in first will just set up for a dissapointment. He may come in first, but its very unlikely considering how little he's been here. The one thing he has going for him is that any Iowa resident of voting age can vote, so his 2% in the Iowa Republican polls aren't a very good indicator of where he'll finish in the straw poll because a lot of his support will come from independents who aren't called in the phone polls of Republicans. I think a 3rd-5th finish would be a good showing and the more candidates that finish below him the better because it might cause them to drop out.

[Johnnybags]

4,500 and 6,000 votes will be needed to be in the top 3. I think Ron cannot do that in such a short time. I'd be happy with 2,000 votes. If you think you can get 6k in a week, I think not. If for some reason he did get over 4k votes it would turn the political world on its ear. If he won outright, it must mean hell froze over.

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

Second place WOULD be a win, because it is not expected. ABC had him in 8th place for the debate. But I also think 5th place or less would be a blow to the campaign, with 3rd or 4th being okay but nothing to celebrate.

[torchbearer]

Second place WOULD be a win, because it is not expected. ABC had him in 8th place for the debate. But I also think 5th place or less would be a blow to the campaign, with 3rd or 4th being okay but nothing to celebrate.

I agree 100%. we need at least 4th... and remember- ron paul will need continual donations to have staying power... that is most important. if he can gain more funds by doing well in Iowa, that's great... but i could see him not getting anymore funds with a win in Iowa because the people that control the money are neocons.

[constituent]

if someone will pay my way in I'll drive up to Iowa and vote!

that'd be atleast one...

or maybe i should just feign support for the mitt-wit and see if i can't bum a ride/ticket off one of those guys. where do i send my resume?

pro-life abortion doctor
six wives and fifty kids
multi-billionaire
hate all non-whites
favorite author - L. Ron Hubbard

yup, i'd say that makes me a perfect fit for the mitt-wit

[constituent]

really though, IMHO the straw poll really doesn't count.

anything that people have to pay so that their voice might be heard is worthless... even when Ron Paul wins.

[Roxi]

if someone will pay my way in I'll drive up to Iowa and vote!

that'd be atleast one...

or maybe i should just feign support for the mitt-wit and see if i can't bum a ride/ticket off one of those guys. where do i send my resume?

pro-life abortion doctor
six wives and fifty kids
multi-billionaire
hate all non-whites
favorite author - L. Ron Hubbard

yup, i'd say that makes me a perfect fit for the mitt-wit

you have to be an iowa resident to vote

[BLS]

if someone will pay my way in I'll drive up to Iowa and vote!

that'd be atleast one...

or maybe i should just feign support for the mitt-wit and see if i can't bum a ride/ticket off one of those guys. where do i send my resume?

pro-life abortion doctor
six wives and fifty kids
multi-billionaire
hate all non-whites
favorite author - L. Ron Hubbard

yup, i'd say that makes me a perfect fit for the mitt-wit

You have to be a resident or college student.

[xita]

We have 1 week to shock the world. But it's not gonna happen if the out of state people are not making phone calls and the in state people are not going door to door every night.

If you are in Iowa, there is nothing more powerful than knocking on doors. Take this comment as some inspiration:

Comment:


The race started far earlier than it did when Carter ran. Paul does not have the staff, does not have the donors, does not have the organization. His name recognition is tiny. I would like to see his approval ratings among those who have an idea of what he stands for: high approval among some on the net is not high approval in the real world.


Reply*


What on earth are you talking about? I live in Iowa. Want to guess which Republican candidate is the only one who has sent a live campaign worker to my door who shook my hand, left a pamphlet and a DVD to watch, and asked me if I had any questions about the candidate? It sure as heck wasn't Giuliani's people, or Romney's people, or McCain's people. It was a Paul worker who told me that the last time he was actually involved in a campaign was with Goldwater in '64 and he honestly felt like giving his time for Paul could actually begin to make a real difference in America. That has IMPACT, a lot more than some blowhard talking head on television.

These workers invaded my neighborhood one evening. I live next door to a guy who was going to vote for Romney, but he's jumped ship because the Paul campaign showed a level of energy and commitment that he'd never seen before and he's lived in Iowa for fifty years.


You may not get it because you're not in Iowa, but a ton of people don't know who Ron Paul is. If YOU are out of state and not making phone calls, then don't be surprised when we don't crack the top 3.

If you're in state, please please please knock on doors. I know it's scary at first, but once you get into the swing of it (like after the first 20 or so) it's actually really fun.

People will see your excitement. You tell them you've never done this before and you're a little nervous - it will break the ice. Tell them you've never been excited about a candidate before.

This is what can win us the straw poll. We have 1000 people in Iowa right now. If they convince an average of 7 people to go and vote for Ron Paul - we'll do great.

If the tragedy of the Commons happens (i don't need to do it because someone else will), it will be . . . well . . . . tragic.

[xita]

really though, IMHO the straw poll really doesn't count.

anything that people have to pay so that their voice might be heard is worthless... even when Ron Paul wins.

Wrong.

If Ron Paul won he would be a top tier candidate. There are more than 600 MSM reporters going to Aimes. Winning would be like winning $20,000,000 in advertising and the hearts and minds of many, many nawsayers.

But again, it's not going to happen unless people are calling and canvasing.

[Hurricane Bruiser]

It seems to me that I heard the Candidates will each have a short time to address the audience before the vote. It is at that point in time that Ron Paul will either make or break how many votes he receives. If he inspires people about freedom, liberty, and is clear on the direction the country is headed, then he might sway a lot of people. If all he focuses on is opposition to the war then he will not sway many people.

[constituent]

Ron Paul will never be a "top-tier" candidate because there is no such thing as tiers... just another of the ministry's invented jokes.

If he won at ames it would just be more of the knives-out (not that it isn't now).

[1000-points-of-fright]

It seems to me that I heard the Candidates will each have a short time to address the audience before the vote. It is at that point in time that Ron Paul will either make or break how many votes he receives. If he inspires people about freedom, liberty, and is clear on the direction the country is headed, then he might sway a lot of people. If all he focuses on is opposition to the war then he will not sway many people.

I agree. The Iraq war is the least of my reasons for supporting him. If he were elected President I really wouldn't care if we didn't withdraw. Just as long as the rest of his domestic and foreign policies start getting implemented.

Plus, I think with Ron Paul in command the war would be conducted so intelligently that we'd be out with the supposed objectives completed about as fast as it would take to withdraw everyone anyway.

[Gee]

I agree 100%. we need at least 4th... and remember- ron paul will need continual donations to have staying power... that is most important. if he can gain more funds by doing well in Iowa, that's great... but i could see him not getting anymore funds with a win in Iowa because the people that control the money are neocons.
You have to realize most people don't want to even vote for a candidate who they think cannot win, let alone donate money to him. If RP comes in 2nd, it could be a huge boon to fund raising. IMO the number of people in this country who would donate to an anti-drug war and anti-Iran war candidate is huge, IF they thought he had a chance.

[LibertyEagle]

if someone will pay my way in I'll drive up to Iowa and vote!

that'd be atleast one...

or maybe i should just feign support for the mitt-wit and see if i can't bum a ride/ticket off one of those guys. where do i send my resume?

pro-life abortion doctor
six wives and fifty kids
multi-billionaire
hate all non-whites
favorite author - L. Ron Hubbard

yup, i'd say that makes me a perfect fit for the mitt-wit

Do you have an Iowa driver's license?

[ARealConservative]

It seems to me that I heard the Candidates will each have a short time to address the audience before the vote. It is at that point in time that Ron Paul will either make or break how many votes he receives. If he inspires people about freedom, liberty, and is clear on the direction the country is headed, then he might sway a lot of people. If all he focuses on is opposition to the war then he will not sway many people.

More then half of the votes will be cast before a single politician talks.

The best chance of conversions is in the grounds outside the event unfortunately.

[LibertyEagle]

We have 1 week to shock the world. But it's not gonna happen if the out of state people are not making phone calls and the in state people are not going door to door every night.

If you are in Iowa, there is nothing more powerful than knocking on doors. Take this comment as some inspiration:

Comment:

Quote:

The race started far earlier than it did when Carter ran. Paul does not have the staff, does not have the donors, does not have the organization. His name recognition is tiny. I would like to see his approval ratings among those who have an idea of what he stands for: high approval among some on the net is not high approval in the real world.

Reply*


Quote:
What on earth are you talking about? I live in Iowa. Want to guess which Republican candidate is the only one who has sent a live campaign worker to my door who shook my hand, left a pamphlet and a DVD to watch, and asked me if I had any questions about the candidate? It sure as heck wasn't Giuliani's people, or Romney's people, or McCain's people. It was a Paul worker who told me that the last time he was actually involved in a campaign was with Goldwater in '64 and he honestly felt like giving his time for Paul could actually begin to make a real difference in America. That has IMPACT, a lot more than some blowhard talking head on television.

These workers invaded my neighborhood one evening. I live next door to a guy who was going to vote for Romney, but he's jumped ship because the Paul campaign showed a level of energy and commitment that he'd never seen before and he's lived in Iowa for fifty years.
You may not get it because you're not in Iowa, but a ton of people don't know who Ron Paul is. If YOU are out of state and not making phone calls, then don't be surprised when we don't crack the top 3.

If you're in state, please please please knock on doors. I know it's scary at first, but once you get into the swing of it (like after the first 20 or so) it's actually really fun.

People will see your excitement. You tell them you've never done this before and you're a little nervous - it will break the ice. Tell them you've never been excited about a candidate before.

This is what can win us the straw poll. We have 1000 people in Iowa right now. If they convince an average of 7 people to go and vote for Ron Paul - we'll do great.

If the tragedy of the Commons happens (i don't need to do it because someone else will), it will be . . . well . . . . tragic.

This is powerful. I sure wish I could be there, but I'm calling as much as I can! Good luck, team. Let's give it our all.

[xita]

Ron Paul will never be a "top-tier" candidate because there is no such thing as tiers... just another of the ministry's invented jokes.

Perhaps. But the word Longshot repeated over and over is propaganda that IS effective at preventing new would-be support. We could destroy that propaganda with a strong showing in Aimes.

But are you willing to put in the work to make that happen? Will you get on the phone and convince 8 people in Iowa to go to Aimes and vote for Ron Paul?

[Badger Paul]

Remember, Guliani and McCain do not have people on the ground checking and double checking who's going to vote for them nor offer $35 or a ride to the Straw Poll itself nor passing our literature or holding signs. They have to hope a lot of ordinary Republicans show up and vote for them.

[constituent]

hmmm, well nix the tix

someone got gas money to donate? i'll walk Iowa for a week... i'll knock on every door (I've sold meat and non-profit donations door to door, pretty sure something I care about would be a breeze!)

[constituent]

and on "long-shot" as propaganda...

it seems to be working in the opposite fashion... some folk I know in the city decided to check him out simply because they kept hearing that little bit of codeword "long-shot." they said, "who's the media to decide?"

[V-rod]

Too bad southern state straw polls don't make as much of as impact as Iowa. The Religious Right wouldn't support a fake grinning, rich smart ass snob like him who is also a Mormon.