PDA

View Full Version : Iowans and Poll voters, please look




shadowhooch
08-06-2007, 10:52 AM
Okay, I'm trying to unscientifically predict how RP may do in the Iowa Straw Poll.
Here's the assumptions:
Everyone on this forum voted in the ABC "who won" poll.
There are about 250 people on this forum.
Ron Paul got about 30,000 votes.

Here's the calculation
30000 / 250 = 120 that's your multiplier

Now how many members on this forum are Iowans voting in the Straw Poll?

Take 120 times that and we'll see what answer we get.

I acknowledge that not everyone is online that is voting in the straw poll.
But also, some poeple may have voted a couple of times within the 30,000.
This estimate is just for fun.

shadowhooch
08-06-2007, 12:24 PM
bumping to get some more votes in. Thanks!;)

LibertyEagle
08-06-2007, 12:41 PM
Do you really think this forum is a good sample? lol

shadowhooch
08-06-2007, 12:50 PM
It'll give me a good idea of how many of the 250 viewers of this forum are Iowans (assuming everyone is honest).

right now, it is 3 out of 31. That is 9.7% of this forum. Take that times 250 and you get 24 Iowans here.

24 x 120 = 2,900 Iowa Straw Poll votes.

That's not so rediculous. It might actually be accurate. You need like 7,000 plus to win right?

This is probably just as scientifically accurate as any phone poll (maybe). :)

Shatterhand
08-06-2007, 12:53 PM
Interesting idea. :D

Eli
08-06-2007, 01:00 PM
why not just look at the members list (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/memberlist.php) and see who announced they are from iowa in their registration?

shadowhooch
08-06-2007, 01:04 PM
why not just look at the members list (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/memberlist.php) and see who announced they are from iowa in their registration?

That's a good idea. But very time consuming (more than I have). I didn't realize there were actually 2000+ members.:eek:

I was only going by how many I've seen online at any one time (which is about 250).

If anyone wants to volunteer to go through 2000+ member pages....feel free.:cool:

danda
08-06-2007, 01:14 PM
why not just look at the members list (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/memberlist.php) and see who announced they are from iowa in their registration?

Or look at the online rally stats ( http://rally.ronpaulplanet.org/stats.php ).

There are 16 Iowans out of 1429 total.

This has been further analyzed here: http://paul4prez.blogspot.com/2007/08/ron-paul-rally-offers-glimpse-at.html

Ron Paul Rally Members per Million Residents

Maine 9.2
Tennessee 9.2
Oklahoma 8.9
New Hampshire 8.5
...
Iowa 3.7
...
Mississippi 1.0

fwiw.

Of course, this is measuring those who are highly motivated supporters, not the "yeah, I kind of like that Ron Paul guy" sort of folks.

shadowhooch
08-06-2007, 03:27 PM
As of 5:19 ET,

30,000 / 55 participants = 545 multiplier

4 of 55 are Iowans (7.27%)

4 x 545 = 2,180 Straw Poll Votes for Ron Paul (by my rough calculations)

Here are the results from 1999:

TOTAL VOTES: 23,685
votes %
Bush 7418
Forbes 4921
Dole 3410
Bauer 2114
Buchanan 1719
Alexander 1428
Keyes 1101
Quayle 916
Hatch 558 2
McCain 83 --
Kasich 9 --
Smith 8 --

So Ron Paul would be about 4th if history repeats itself. Hey, better than Buchanan!

Please continue to vote in this poll (and be honest please) to increase the statistical pool. Thanks.

Roxi
08-06-2007, 03:28 PM
MCCAIN only had 83 votes.. hahahahaha ill be surprised if he gets 3 this time

Sean
08-06-2007, 04:36 PM
Turnout is predicted to be smaller than the 1999 one. It is going to be interesting to see what happens. One thing that worries me is that as time goes on the debates will start cutting candidates out that are low in the polls. I think that happened to Alan Keyes one year.

ThePieSwindler
08-06-2007, 04:43 PM
Turnout is predicted to be smaller than the 1999 one. It is going to be interesting to see what happens. One thing that worries me is that as time goes on the debates will start cutting candidates out that are low in the polls. I think that happened to Alan Keyes one year.

Well thats not a bad thing if Ron Paul places fairly high, because it will give him more time to talk in the debates.

LibertyEagle
08-06-2007, 06:22 PM
Yes, it reminds me of the next debate on August 20. Ron Paul was one of four who was invited. That must have been because of his campaign money.

We'd better make darn sure his campaign contributions keep increasing.

I'm going to donate $200 more right now.

shadowhooch
08-06-2007, 08:12 PM
30000 / 79 = 379 multiplier

5 of 79 are Iowans (6.33%)

5 * 379 = 1895 Ron Paul Straw Poll votes

Seems pretty reasonable. I predict Ron Paul will finish with around 2,000 Straw Poll votes. Maybe better if he has more non-internet support than expected.

Thanks for voting in the poll. And feel free to participate if you haven't already!
But please be honest!;)

Joe Knows
08-06-2007, 08:33 PM
I think that Ron Paul will probably do a little better in the poll depending on how well his speech is received in Ames. If he can capture the imagination of the crowd with his adhering to the Constitution speech, I think that a lot of people will vote their conscience. Ron is the type of candidate that at this point some people will not publicly support because of the negativity in the press, but in the privacy of a voting booth they will vote for him because they believe like he does. When public perception of Ron becomes more fashionable he will explode when people realize that he is supported by a large number of people.

If you have 1000 people on the ground in Iowa for the next 5 days, that is just one person per day that you have to convert. Most of the time if you convert one person in the family you will convert everyone. At a household rate of 1.70 you are looking at about 8500 votes. That doesn't count the hard core supporters. Ron Paul supporters are usually more passionate than other voters. When you have such a high number of undecideds they will usually trend one of two ways. They will trend toward the person they think will win, because they want to vote for a winner. Or they will trend to the underdog who doesn't have a chance but thinks his message should be heard.

We will have to wait and see who will win, but I think that it should be the goal of each volunteer to convert and commit one new Ron Paul supporter every day. That should give us about 10000 votes. Let's shock America!