Interesting Intrade graph

[Carole]

You might want to look at this.


http://ronpaulgraphs.com/intrade_electability_rep.html


and

Best Days graph

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/nov_30_vs_best_total.html

[InLoveWithRon]

Ha! Ron and Giuliani going in completely opposite directions.

[rp08orbust]

You might want to look at this.


http://ronpaulgraphs.com/intrade_electability_rep.html


and

Best Days graph

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/nov_30_vs_best_total.html

I think what's happened is Ron's odds of getting the GOP nomination have gone way up (low probability) while his odds of winning the presidency as a third party candidate have remained about what they have always been. Thus his "electability" ratio goes up without it really meaning anything.

[CelestialRender]

I think what's happened is Ron's odds of getting the GOP nomination have gone way up (low probability) while his odds of winning the presidency as a third party candidate have remained about what they have always been. Thus his "electability" ratio goes up without it really meaning anything.

That's backwards. A candidate who is guaranteed the Republican nod, but has only a 1% chance to win the general election is 1% electable (1/100).

Whereas, a candidate who is 1% likely to get the Republican nod, but has a 100% chance to win the election is 100% electable (100/1).

In other words, when his electability stat goes up, it means he is more likely to win IF the Republicans gave him the nod...OR it can mean he is equally likely to win, but LESS likely to get the GOP nod...which is probably the actual case.

Investors are realizing he's running out of opportunities to gain delegates and momentum, but aren't believing that he's less likely to win, were he to run on a 3rd party ticket.