akalucas
02-01-2008, 05:55 AM
-I took the averages of polls done this week for states voting on Feb 5th from Real Clear politics for each candidate
-I then awarded the Delegates accordingly by taking into account states that go by winner take all, Proportional delegate and special rules.
-I know some of the delegates wont be voted on to later but this is an estimate of what is going to be reported in the news.
Heres some cool facts that I found out when shifting through all this
PAUL STUFF:
*Paul is polling about 5% in: California, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri,
*Paul is Polling about 6% in: New Jersey and Oklahoma
*Paul is Polling about 10% in: Illinois and Tennessee
*everything else is 3% or lower.
ROMNEY STUFF:
*The states Romney is winning are not winner take all states except Utah.
----the states he is winning are: Colorado(43%), Massachusetts(57%) and Utah(65%)
*In states where Romney is coming in 2nd he is always pretty far behind.
----The closest was by 8% in California and Illinois and 9% in Missouri.
----The rest of the states where he's coming in 2nd he is 15 to 20% behind 1st place. Romney is coming in 2nd in 7 states
HUCKABEE STUFF:
*Huckabee is winning in about 4 states with two too close to call but they're worth a lot of delegates. These states are: Georgia (72 deleg), Arkansas (34), Missouri (58 winner take all), and very close in Alabama (48). Missouri and Alabama too close to call but will add one state to his total.
McCAIN STUFF:
*Mccain wining in 10 states with 5 being winner take all. Very close to also winning Missouri which is winner take all and Alabama. Will add one of these to his total.
*In states where he's winning he has a average lead of 13-15% with 5 states being around 18-20% lead.
Ok, here's a rough estimate of what the delegate count is going to be and includes already given delegates. 208 Delegates been played for already and 1081 are at stake during Feb. 5th
McCain: 610 Delegates
Romney: 358 Delegates
Huckabee: 265 Delegates
Paul: 56 Delegates
if there's much movement here it will be between McCain and Huck since they're basically tied in two states. Also, Pauls numbers will be higher if he does well in caucus states.
If you only count winner take all states and not the other states with other variables to see how everyone stands, it would look something like this:
McCain: 313 (him winning in states that are winner take all is really helping)
Huckabee: 92
Romney: 36
Paul: 0
--------------------------------------
Total Delegate played for after Feb 5th: 1289
Total left after Feb 5th: 1091
Total when its all done: 2380
There are 5 Caucuses in Super Tuesday:
Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota
Alaska, Montana, N. Dakota and W. Virginia where not taken into consideration since I could not find polling data. That would be cool if someone could.
Paul's one is hard to figure since he comes in last in most states and there's different rules for each state concerning the minimum percentage he needs to get delegates. Also Alaska is not taken into consideration since I have no Polling data from there. Another factor is that he does better in Caucuses and 4 out of the 5 have no polling data that I can find. He will get much more if he does good in Cali and Alaska. Remember, this is an estimation of what the media will report.
Actual delegates that support Paul will be way higher and may be significant in a broken convention. Also the network, the money the grassroots can generate and all the precinct captains that will have grown will be worth a lot to the person that is nominated if its not Paul. There's no question that if we go all the way and keep growing the nominee will have to cater to us (prob by appointing Paul VP) and mold their ideas more to our liking. By then we will be representing 10-15% of republicans and there's no way we are going to vote Republican if Paul is not included in the ticket.
If Paul doesnt win or get chosen for VP the Republicans will not win, largely due to us and we would have planted the seeds to be even a bigger force in 2 years and 4 years from now. Slowly we will inject our people in congress, senate and state offices until we take America back. Im pretty sure the GOP knows this and it scares the s*&t out of them. This movement toward a more constitutional government will never end if guys dont want it to.
sorry for all the grammar errors. It's really late at night.
-I then awarded the Delegates accordingly by taking into account states that go by winner take all, Proportional delegate and special rules.
-I know some of the delegates wont be voted on to later but this is an estimate of what is going to be reported in the news.
Heres some cool facts that I found out when shifting through all this
PAUL STUFF:
*Paul is polling about 5% in: California, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri,
*Paul is Polling about 6% in: New Jersey and Oklahoma
*Paul is Polling about 10% in: Illinois and Tennessee
*everything else is 3% or lower.
ROMNEY STUFF:
*The states Romney is winning are not winner take all states except Utah.
----the states he is winning are: Colorado(43%), Massachusetts(57%) and Utah(65%)
*In states where Romney is coming in 2nd he is always pretty far behind.
----The closest was by 8% in California and Illinois and 9% in Missouri.
----The rest of the states where he's coming in 2nd he is 15 to 20% behind 1st place. Romney is coming in 2nd in 7 states
HUCKABEE STUFF:
*Huckabee is winning in about 4 states with two too close to call but they're worth a lot of delegates. These states are: Georgia (72 deleg), Arkansas (34), Missouri (58 winner take all), and very close in Alabama (48). Missouri and Alabama too close to call but will add one state to his total.
McCAIN STUFF:
*Mccain wining in 10 states with 5 being winner take all. Very close to also winning Missouri which is winner take all and Alabama. Will add one of these to his total.
*In states where he's winning he has a average lead of 13-15% with 5 states being around 18-20% lead.
Ok, here's a rough estimate of what the delegate count is going to be and includes already given delegates. 208 Delegates been played for already and 1081 are at stake during Feb. 5th
McCain: 610 Delegates
Romney: 358 Delegates
Huckabee: 265 Delegates
Paul: 56 Delegates
if there's much movement here it will be between McCain and Huck since they're basically tied in two states. Also, Pauls numbers will be higher if he does well in caucus states.
If you only count winner take all states and not the other states with other variables to see how everyone stands, it would look something like this:
McCain: 313 (him winning in states that are winner take all is really helping)
Huckabee: 92
Romney: 36
Paul: 0
--------------------------------------
Total Delegate played for after Feb 5th: 1289
Total left after Feb 5th: 1091
Total when its all done: 2380
There are 5 Caucuses in Super Tuesday:
Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota
Alaska, Montana, N. Dakota and W. Virginia where not taken into consideration since I could not find polling data. That would be cool if someone could.
Paul's one is hard to figure since he comes in last in most states and there's different rules for each state concerning the minimum percentage he needs to get delegates. Also Alaska is not taken into consideration since I have no Polling data from there. Another factor is that he does better in Caucuses and 4 out of the 5 have no polling data that I can find. He will get much more if he does good in Cali and Alaska. Remember, this is an estimation of what the media will report.
Actual delegates that support Paul will be way higher and may be significant in a broken convention. Also the network, the money the grassroots can generate and all the precinct captains that will have grown will be worth a lot to the person that is nominated if its not Paul. There's no question that if we go all the way and keep growing the nominee will have to cater to us (prob by appointing Paul VP) and mold their ideas more to our liking. By then we will be representing 10-15% of republicans and there's no way we are going to vote Republican if Paul is not included in the ticket.
If Paul doesnt win or get chosen for VP the Republicans will not win, largely due to us and we would have planted the seeds to be even a bigger force in 2 years and 4 years from now. Slowly we will inject our people in congress, senate and state offices until we take America back. Im pretty sure the GOP knows this and it scares the s*&t out of them. This movement toward a more constitutional government will never end if guys dont want it to.
sorry for all the grammar errors. It's really late at night.