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View Full Version : Its Ames straw poll focus time




Johnnybags
08-06-2007, 07:14 AM
Although I expect Mitt to win, we do need the good DR. to place over one of the annointed candidates at least. I'd like to see him beat Ghouliani or McCain and all the lower tier. However, I expect one lower tier candidate to do well, so if he comes in 3rd or fourth with solid support and within range of all but Mitt, I will be happy. I know the grass roots will be the best of all the candidates there but I am worried about getting thousands of actual Iowans to vote for him since he got off to a late start there. Am I wrong, any Iowans have a better feel for hard core support there?

Sematary
08-06-2007, 07:15 AM
Although I expect Mitt to win, we do need the good DR. to place over one of the annointed candidates at least. I'd like to see him beat Ghouliani or McCain and all the lower tier. However, I expect one lower tier candidate to do well, so if he comes in 3rd or fourth with solid support and within range of all but Mitt, I will be happy. I know the grass roots will be the best of all the candidates there but I am worried about getting thousands of actual Iowans to vote for him since he got off to a late start there. Am I wrong, any Iowans have a better feel for hard core support there?

From what I read yesterday, Mitt's support is pretty soft, so perhaps those who are able to be there and influence votes with their presence will be able to do just that.

MozoVote
08-06-2007, 10:12 AM
Although I'm assuming Mitt * will* win, I have a feeling his numbers may be unimpressive. I really see very few comments anywhere, from people enthused about him.

Slugg
08-06-2007, 10:17 AM
Although I'm assuming Mitt * will* win, I have a feeling his numbers may be unimpressive. I really see very few comments anywhere, from people enthused about him.

Don't need enthusiasm, just tickets to a BBQ and a free ride....just pull the lever for Mitt....come on....we'll show ya how to spell it on the way.

foofighter20x
08-06-2007, 10:20 AM
The beauty of this straw poll is that we aren't expected to get above 3-5% based on the high end of national polling...

So, making anything above that is a win. :)

Badger Paul
08-06-2007, 11:34 AM
Even if you do get a free ticket and a ride plus a meal, will anyone take him up on it?. Remember, people have to be motivated to spend $35 and spend a whole Saturday in Ames. We'll see who turns out for Mitt.

freelance
08-06-2007, 11:53 AM
Don't need enthusiasm, just tickets to a BBQ and a free ride....just pull the lever for Mitt....come on....we'll show ya how to spell it on the way.

A Diebold machine will do in a pinch.

dspectre
08-06-2007, 12:13 PM
Guys, you need to be more optimistic.

I think RP can definitely win this. The "polls" make things look more favorable to Romney more than what they really are.

How many votes will it take to win the straw poll?

Richie
08-06-2007, 12:16 PM
How many votes will it take to win the straw poll?

If I'm not mistaken, this straw poll is going to massive. Like - thousands of people massive. If anybody has a more specific number, please correct me.

This is going to be a challenge. There's not a doubt in my mind that Romney is going to win first. We need to work to get Ron Paul in the top 3.

Psyclone
08-06-2007, 03:53 PM
I don't think we should be getting our hopes up too high about the straw poll. Dr. Paul got a late start in Iowa, and although our door to door campaigning in the Ames area is better than anyone else, we are far behind in a) radio and TV ads and b) outreach to most areas of the state. I am worried that all the enthusiasm is going to leave the campaign if Dr. Paul finishes 5th, but I think that is the most likely outcome right now. Romney, Tommy Thomspon, Huckabee, and Brownback are all making the Ames straw poll a make or break event, and we need to keep that in mind when predicting the outcome.

Richandler
08-06-2007, 04:06 PM
Well it looks like the MSM are refusing to cover Ron Paul again and is loving all over Mitt and Hillary. We have to pull the upset by all means possible.

angelatc
08-06-2007, 04:44 PM
23,685 - total number of votes cast in 1999. GWB won with 7418.

Nobody has ever bypassed the Straw Poll and gone on to win the caucuses.

Badger Paul
08-06-2007, 04:57 PM
RP's official camapaign is running ads on both radio and TV this week to go along with what the non-official campaign has been doing (like us for example). RP is traveling throughout the state this week. The GOP field is very fluid and volatile and support for the candidates is a mile wide and an inch deep. And the poll is open to all Iowa voters not just Republicans. Yes what we're trying to do is very difficult but we have a shot and we have to take it.

Psyclone
08-06-2007, 05:48 PM
I agree with Badger Paul that it is good to take our best shot, but we have to remember that it is still early in the campaign season. We can't let our enthusiasm flag if things don't go as well as we hope in the Ames straw poll.

Scribbler de Stebbing
08-06-2007, 06:28 PM
Wish we could have brought the libertarians in to vote. It's not too late to try to get an in somehow with the Libertarian Party, to try to get a message out via email to their list. But I've run up against a wall every time I've tried.

Are there any good libertarian message boards we can get on? Best if it's an IA libertarian board, but even a general board will hit SOME Iowans.

ThePieSwindler
08-06-2007, 06:29 PM
Wish we could have brought the libertarians in to vote. It's not too late to try to get an in somehow with the Libertarian Party, to try to get a message out via email to their list. But I've run up against a wall every time I've tried.

Are there any good libertarian message boards we can get on? Best if it's an IA libertarian board, but even a general board will hit SOME Iowans.

Wait why is there a "wall"? Have you tried to contact them and they do not listen or respond, or are you just having trouble contacting them? Or something else?

pazzo83
08-06-2007, 06:32 PM
Now to clear things up, is FT going to be on the ballot?

TexMac
08-06-2007, 06:33 PM
Wish we could have brought the libertarians in to vote. It's not too late to try to get an in somehow with the Libertarian Party, to try to get a message out via email to their list. But I've run up against a wall every time I've tried.

Are there any good libertarian message boards we can get on? Best if it's an IA libertarian board, but even a general board will hit SOME Iowans.
Most Libertarians are already on board for RP. If they aren't, there's probably nothing you can say that would help.

Thomas_Paine
08-06-2007, 06:35 PM
I don't think we should be getting our hopes up too high about the straw poll. Dr. Paul got a late start in Iowa, and although our door to door campaigning in the Ames area is better than anyone else, we are far behind in a) radio and TV ads and b) outreach to most areas of the state. I am worried that all the enthusiasm is going to leave the campaign if Dr. Paul finishes 5th, but I think that is the most likely outcome right now. Romney, Tommy Thomspon, Huckabee, and Brownback are all making the Ames straw poll a make or break event, and we need to keep that in mind when predicting the outcome.


I agree that expecting somewheres around 3th is cautiously optimistic. 1st would be miracle (why can't God rig the diebold machines?

I do NOT believe that the optimism will permanently leave the campaign if he places lower. When you are fighting for our freedom, a strawpoll is not going to stop you.

Hook
08-06-2007, 06:38 PM
Over 70% of the Libertarians are voting for Paul already.

maiki
08-06-2007, 06:40 PM
Now to clear things up, is FT going to be on the ballot?

yes.

Wyurm
08-06-2007, 06:43 PM
Over 70% of the Libertarians are voting for Paul already.

In Iowa?

d991
08-06-2007, 07:33 PM
Is it me or was Romney trying to "attack" Dr. Paul in the ABC debate?
It seemed that on a couple occasions when Paul was talking about foreign policy, Romney was throwing in a couple jabs (most notably the "what about 9/11?" comment.)
You would think the other "main" candidates would have learned the Giuliani lesson from the May debate when, although he might have looked good during the debate, Ron Paul won the war and his popularity really sprouted from there. Was Mitt Romney just being the same empty-headed say anything for applause guy who showed he was completely ignorant about the weapons inspections prior to the Iraq invasion, or was he trying to take on Ron Paul because he now considers him more of a threat in Iowa and NH? Opinions?

Psyclone
08-06-2007, 07:37 PM
Fred Thompson is on the Ames Straw Poll ballot, but realize he will not have a tent, he will not be paying for people's tickets, he will not be busing people in, and he will not be present at the event. All of this adds up to pretty much no support because very few people are going to be willing to pay $35 on their own to vote for a candidate who didn't show up. The people to really worry about (in addition to Romney) are Tommy Thompson, Huckabee, and Brownback who are putting all of their eggs in the Ames Straw Poll basket.

I am on the Executive Committee of the Libertarian Party of Iowa, and I assure you that every party member in Iowa already knows about Ron Paul (it's pretty much all we talk about at the meetings). The hard core members all showed up for the June 30 Des Moines rally, and I would expect them to be at the Ames Straw Poll as well, so I don't think you have to worry about outreach to Iowa Libertarians. They are very much aware of both Ron Paul and the straw poll.

LibertyEagle
08-06-2007, 07:50 PM
How many are we talking about, Psyclone?

Psyclone
08-06-2007, 07:57 PM
The Libertarian Party of Iowa is not very big. We get about two dozen people at the state conventions (these are the hard core folks), and they will definitely be coming. There are clusters of Libertarians in Fairfield, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport and college Libertarians in Ames and Iowa City, and I know that many of them are coming as well. However, I am betting that actual card carrying members of the Libertarian party will produce between 50 and 100 votes for Ron Paul at the straw poll.

Bradley in DC
08-06-2007, 08:15 PM
The Libertarian Party of Iowa is not very big. We get about two dozen people at the state conventions (these are the hard core folks), and they will definitely be coming. There are clusters of Libertarians in Fairfield, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport and college Libertarians in Ames and Iowa City, and I know that many of them are coming as well. However, I am betting that actual card carrying members of the Libertarian party will produce between 50 and 100 votes for Ron Paul at the straw poll.

If each one of those could bring eight friends...

Badger Paul
08-06-2007, 08:23 PM
Hopefully we can get some Constitution Party members as well, the Minnesota meet-up group has been working that angle.

Delaware
08-06-2007, 08:43 PM
Ron Paul Meetups in Iowa

-Des Moines 98 Members
-Ames 67 Members
-Iowa City 67 Members
-Cedar Rapids 51 Members
-Quad City Area 49 Members
-Iowa Border States Coalition 32 Members
-Waterloo 22 Members (+/- 14 NE Iowa)
-Dubuque 15 Members
-Fairfield 15 Members
-Sioux City 14 Members
-Humbolt 12 Members
-Burlington 9 Members
-Ft. Madison 6 Members
-Coralville 5 Members

Total Iowa Meetup Members : 462
Total Iowa Meetup Family Influence : I'd Say 1500
Total Sphere of Influence: Unlimited

Libertarian Party

50 to 100 Votes (as Per Psyclone)

Constitution Party

?? to ?? Votes


The TV and Radio adds are recent and therefore people touched by them arent going to be in these groups.

On the ground we have the Iowa groups working very hard, as well as the national grassroots who are calling and sending letters.

Ron Paul is also making appearances this week with his appearance in Fairfax( or Fairfield) bringing more than 600 people into it.

Dont worry, we will do well.

ksuguy
08-06-2007, 08:49 PM
Wish we could have brought the libertarians in to vote. It's not too late to try to get an in somehow with the Libertarian Party, to try to get a message out via email to their list. But I've run up against a wall every time I've tried.


Many of us are already on board. There are lots of Libertarians that are not active in the party. For example, I was registered as a Libertarian before I switched to Republican to support Ron. However, I didn't participate in any of the organized party activities or functions.

I'd have to say the majority of Libertarians are supporting Ron. Even the hard core guys like L. Neil Smith are on board.

mackler
08-06-2007, 08:52 PM
Romney, Tommy Thomspon, Huckabee, and Brownback are all making the Ames straw poll a make or break event....

What does that mean, exactly?

SWATH
08-06-2007, 09:06 PM
I predict that if the vote gets rigged as is lopsided the Ron Paul supporters will demand a hand count. Then that will give the spin doctors what they need to say the Ron Paul spammers are trying to change the results because they were upset about not being able to spam a real poll.

Psyclone
08-06-2007, 09:09 PM
In response to Mackler's query: It means that Tommy Thompson, Huckabee, and Brownback are putting a very high percentage of their campaign budgets and time into the Iowa Straw Poll with lots of state visits (all over the state), radio and TV spots, free tickets for all their supporters, and buses for church groups. Tommy Thompson visited every county in the state and Huckabee and Brownback want to use the straw poll to establish themselves as the candidate for Christian conservatives (whoever comes out on top in the straw poll will likely win that mantle while the loser may well withdraw from the race). Unlike Ron Paul, if any of them does poorly in the straw poll, their campaign is for all intents and purposes over. They are putting all their money into the poll in the hopes that a strong finish will get them more free media which will help them replenish their campaign chests. Dr. Paul's campaign will go on regardless of the Ames Straw Poll vote.