I am starting to see the big picture. The campaign has a plan

[Joel High]

For the last couple of days after a lot of doubt. I am starting to see the big picture. I might not completely understand it just yet. But Ron Paul has a definite plan and it seems to be working very well. I'm not saying anything is a lock...far from it. I'm sure there has to be a lot of "ifs" in the plan like who and when candidates drop out, how is the war and economy are going and how much money other people are spending. But I can start to see a road through the fog that will get us the nomination.

I questioned the Florida plan. Now I think it was pretty smart. We know we were not in a position to win Florida. A close 2nd netted zero delegates. Giuliani went broke there. Huckabee is going to be gone shortly without a penny to the campaigns name. Romney is questioning whether or not to put any more of his own money into his campaign. And we have a bunch of cash left because we didn't spend on a no win situation. And thank God the money keeps coming in.

Just compare McCain's strategy against Ron Paul's for a second. There are a lot of states voting on Super Tuesday. Some are winner take all and some split their delegates by vote total. McCain is advertising in the winner take all states. (Along with CA). Have you seen where RP is putting his money. He's putting them is the proportional states. That means even if he finishes 2nd, he will still pick up delegates. Better yet, he is the only candidate campaigning and spending money in those states.

So what happens after Super Tuesday? States start to trickle in. At this point Huckabee will probably be gone. Romney is either in or out. Both benefit us. If he's still in, that means he did well on Super Tuesday which means the nomination is a mess and we keep getting closer and closer to a Brokered Convention.
If Romney drops out, it is down to McCain and Paul and we all know who wins that conversation. Pro-Life=RP Economy=RP Lower Taxes=RP Immigration=RP The war=Push (face it, some men you just can't reach)

When it gets down to 2 candidates, people will look a lot closer, hopefully the media looks a lot closer. The GOP will look a lot closer. Listen to Rush or any of those others on the radio...They hate McCain. This is the GOP's worse nightmare - A liberal Republican.

Ron Paul is ready in those late states. He's the only candidate that has stressing to his supporters how important they are. McCain probably didn't think the race would even go this long let alone that he would be in it. I'm in PA, an April 22nd vote. We are organized and ready. Do you really think the other campaigns can say that. Don't forget we will still be waiting on Texas to cast it's vote along with some other big decent size states.

RP hammers the Economy. RP hammers the war. RP hammers the National Debt. Maybe we pick up a few conservative endorsements. Then the book comes out, we make it a best seller. Never underestimate the media. They are always looking to boost ratings. What type of ratings are they going to get between Super Tuesday and September October if the Republican nominee is decided. Not as much as a comeback story with Ron Paul and McCain fighting out all the way to September.

Like I said, I'm crossing my fingers and praying for the best. I'm not willing to bet my house on the nomination just yet. However, there are a lot of people ready to bail. We need to make sure they stick around because Ron Paul is going to need them. This can not be done without them or without us.

Keep the Faith and keep working.

[Ex Post Facto]

Here here.

[AlexMerced]

Basically it come down to one thing and how well the grassroots laid the delegate groundwork late last year. No matter who wins all the states if we succesfully get our people to the convention we can even unbound all the delegates before the vote.

We'll see how much our work paid off at the convention then, but till then we need to make sure we take all the god nods for Senate and Congress and get those people elected.


IF your state has already voted work with you meet up to prop up senate and congressional candidates and canvass for them.

[Wells]

Har Har!!

Excellent original post!!

[matthylland]

Great topic.

NC is ready for a May 6th primary for RP! McCain is not!

[RevolutionSD]

For the last couple of days after a lot of doubt. I am starting to see the big picture. I might not completely understand it just yet. But Ron Paul has a definite plan and it seems to be working very well. I'm not saying anything is a lock...far from it. I'm sure there has to be a lot of "ifs" in the plan like who and when candidates drop out, how is the war and economy are going and how much money other people are spending. But I can start to see a road through the fog that will get us the nomination.

I questioned the Florida plan. Now I think it was pretty smart. We know we were not in a position to win Florida. A close 2nd netted zero delegates. Giuliani went broke there. Huckabee is going to be gone shortly without a penny to the campaigns name. Romney is questioning whether or not to put any more of his own money into his campaign. And we have a bunch of cash left because we didn't spend on a no win situation. And thank God the money keeps coming in.

Just compare McCain's strategy against Ron Paul's for a second. There are a lot of states voting on Super Tuesday. Some are winner take all and some split their delegates by vote total. McCain is advertising in the winner take all states. (Along with CA). Have you seen where RP is putting his money. He's putting them is the proportional states. That means even if he finishes 2nd, he will still pick up delegates. Better yet, he is the only candidate campaigning and spending money in those states.

So what happens after Super Tuesday? States start to trickle in. At this point Huckabee will probably be gone. Romney is either in or out. Both benefit us. If he's still in, that means he did well on Super Tuesday which means the nomination is a mess and we keep getting closer and closer to a Brokered Convention.
If Romney drops out, it is down to McCain and Paul and we all know who wins that conversation. Pro-Life=RP Economy=RP Lower Taxes=RP Immigration=RP The war=Push (face it, some men you just can't reach)

When it gets down to 2 candidates, people will look a lot closer, hopefully the media looks a lot closer. The GOP will look a lot closer. Listen to Rush or any of those others on the radio...They hate McCain. This is the GOP's worse nightmare - A liberal Republican.

Ron Paul is ready in those late states. He's the only candidate that has stressing to his supporters how important they are. McCain probably didn't think the race would even go this long let alone that he would be in it. I'm in PA, an April 22nd vote. We are organized and ready. Do you really think the other campaigns can say that. Don't forget we will still be waiting on Texas to cast it's vote along with some other big decent size states.

RP hammers the Economy. RP hammers the war. RP hammers the National Debt. Maybe we pick up a few conservative endorsements. Then the book comes out, we make it a best seller. Never underestimate the media. They are always looking to boost ratings. What type of ratings are they going to get between Super Tuesday and September October if the Republican nominee is decided. Not as much as a comeback story with Ron Paul and McCain fighting out all the way to September.

Like I said, I'm crossing my fingers and praying for the best. I'm not willing to bet my house on the nomination just yet. However, there are a lot of people ready to bail. We need to make sure they stick around because Ron Paul is going to need them. This can not be done without them or without us.

Keep the Faith and keep working.

Good post!

Just one contention- I think McCain's official stance on abortion is pro-life as well.

[Joel High]

Good post!

Just one contention- I think McCain's official stance on abortion is pro-life as well.


I agree, but from a Pro-Life perspective, he is for special circumstances which the hard core Pro-Lifers are against.

[mongoose]

Great post.

[Chibioz]

Good insights. I love that huck is running on fumes and it doesn't sound like McCain is doing too well either. Romney can't be too happy dumping his fortune into this race as it's not looking like a sure win for him by any means.

[rp08orbust]

As soon as it is down to McCain and Paul, the MSM will declare McCain the winner and all debates will be canceled. Even if debates are not canceled, McCain will refuse to participate because he would have nothing to gain by debating Paul, while Paul would have everything to gain.

[gracebkr]

yup!

[Kotin]

you are on to something for sure.

[dt_]

I hope you're right :) BUT Paul has to win at least 5 states to be eligible for the nomination, right? So even if he gets 2nd in a bunch of Super Tuesday states and ends up somehow with the most delegates, it might not be quite enough

[AlexMerced]

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/The_Bottom_Line_About_Ron_Paul

[MGreen]

When it gets down to 2 candidates, people will look a lot closer, hopefully the media looks a lot closer. The GOP will look a lot closer. Listen to Rush or any of those others on the radio...They hate McCain. This is the GOP's worse nightmare - A liberal Republican.
This is the big IF, and I personally don't see it happening. People will accept McCain as the presumptive nominee. This could benefit us with lower turnouts in the later states, but I find it hard to believe Paul will suddenly trump McCain's momentum.


Just one contention- I think McCain's official stance on abortion is pro-life as well.
Of course, anyone willing to do a bit of research would have to back Paul when it comes to abortion. McCain has been in Washington as long as Paul, and as far as I know has done nothing serious to help pro-lifers. Paul, on the other hand, has introduced the perfect resolution. A simple TV ad would work well. But that means we have to make sure Paul continues getting money into March and April.

I have to say, though, I haven't heard much news of TV ads by Paul, except in smaller Feb 5 states. I wonder if he's hoarding a couple million or so to advertise after February 5, when McCain should have even less money and (if McCain succeeds on Tuesday) most people assume the primaries are over.

[coffeewithchess]

Good insights. I love that huck is running on fumes and it doesn't sound like McCain is doing too well either. Romney can't be too happy dumping his fortune into this race as it's not looking like a sure win for him by any means.

I don't know what makes you all think, Huck is out of money. Huck is raising currently about the same amount this quarter as RP. Huck also wasn't really caring about Florida(after his SC loss), but more so on Georgia and Missouri and other southern states.

[justatrey]

Great post, but I have to disagree with you on the mainstream media. If it were to come down to McCain vs. Paul, they would spin it as if McCain had amazingly won early. They would laugh about Ron Paul still being in the race, declare victory for McCain, tell us the convention was meaningless this year, and focus on Hillary and Obama.

They care far more about keeping a candidate like Paul out of power than they do about ratings. They would literally hold a debate with McCain by himself if they have to.

[cheese]

if it comes down to 2 candidates, ron paul vs. whoever, the other candidate will refuse to debate ron and just ignore him. it's their only viable strategy against him. we need to be prepared for this.

[Chibioz]

I don't know what makes you all think, Huck is out of money. Huck is raising currently about the same amount this quarter as RP. Huck also wasn't really caring about Florida(after his SC loss), but more so on Georgia and Missouri and other southern states.

Well I think that says more about how poorly we have been doing fundraising wise this quarter. Huck by no means has enough to run a full fledged national campaign. If not for a great Q4 we wouldn't either. We need to get back into top tier fundraising with a successful money bomb tomorrow.

[N13]

Ron Paul needs to win some states. The sooner the better. If this can happen, and I think it can, things will change quickly.

[Myerz]

I don't know about the brokered Convention....I think he's leaning more towards a 3rd party run..... It would be nice to see the libertarian and constitutional parties pick him up, a combined effort. Don't get me wrong I would like to see Ron get GOP nod...but I don't think the puppet masters are going to let that happen if they can help it.

[johnpp2]

As soon as it is down to McCain and Paul, the MSM will declare McCain the winner and all debates will be canceled. Even if debates are not canceled, McCain will refuse to participate because he would have nothing to gain by debating Paul, while Paul would have everything to gain.

Noone will be able to use the "Paul is a wasted vote" argument anymore, so he could pile up the protest votes. However, I do not share everyone else's optimism about Huck or Romney dropping out. Why would they drop out? They could just slack off campaigning, but the media would still give them free advertising by interviewing them. Plus, they will probably both have enough delegates to justify sticking it out to the brokered convention. Believe me, whatever has to be done to silence Paul will be done. This will only be won by massive grassroots canvassing and donation efforts, and it will probably take all the way to November to get the votes. But keep in mind, if he goes 3rd party, all of our donation totals reset, so we can flood him with money again! Local cable ads, local newspaper ads, it will all have to be done at the local level, just how Dr. Paul would like it. The national media will never, EVER help us.

[Peace&Freedom]

Well I think that says more about how poorly we have been doing fundraising wise this quarter. Huck by no means has enough to run a full fledged national campaign. If not for a great Q4 we wouldn't either. We need to get back into top tier fundraising with a successful money bomb tomorrow.

Huckabee and Romney may have enough left in the tank for some Super Tuesday wins, and from that trailing strength (with Paul's pickup of delegates) may be able to deprive McCain of a majority of delegates. Most of them will not be specifically committed to a candidate until the months after ST, and Paul is far, far more prepared for the delegate battles to come after Feb. 5. Also keep in mind that after ST, half of the Paul supporters nationwide will be free (since their primary will have past) to concentrate on helping Paul contest all the remaining states, through the already established projects (money bombs, call or writing campaigns, et al). Paul's army will stay at this, as a unified national effort, until the bitter end.

[1913_to_2008]

vv

[Babylon]

As soon as it is down to McCain and Paul, the MSM will declare McCain the winner and all debates will be canceled. Even if debates are not canceled, McCain will refuse to participate because he would have nothing to gain by debating Paul, while Paul would have everything to gain.

Quite right.

The media is already characterizing the Repub nomination as McCain v. Romney. Huckabee is rarely mentioned. Paul, never.

Newsweek has -- for two weeks in a row now -- listed the Republican Candidates as: McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani. And then, as only the first three.

When Romney drops out, Paul and Huckabee will go down the memory hole.

I don't think folks quite understand the power of the media. Ron Paul, regardless of how many delegates he picks up, will NOT BE MENTIONED.

Real honestly, Huckabee will get screwed the most out of this. He really could win some post Feb 5 states. But, he won't because those folks WILL NOT EVEN KNOW HE IS STILL IN THE RACE BY THEN.

There will be no more debates, no more interviews, and no more articles.

What will be even more depressing is that the supposedly conservative blowhards like Limbaugh, Coulter, Hannity, and FreeRepublic will rally around McCain by Feb 20.

Call me a troll if you want. But, those are the facts.

I don't have any solutions to suggest. I do not believe there are any.

[tangent4ronpaul]

I think they are going to pull a variation of what they pulled in LA - that "pro-life/Family values slate". I think McCain and Romney are going to both run for as long as they can to monopolize media/debate time and enjoying a comfortable lead, not spending much money on the primaries until that lead drops. One of them will then drop out and be the others VP candidate, so all their delegates go to them. Capture the nomination by running multiple candidates and having the ones in the lead join forces.

Paul's best chance in that scenario is to ask Huckabee to be his VP and so get his delegates. It's all about delegates.

Then we have all those free delegates and delegates who can vote as they wish after X number of votes.

This is going to be an uphill struggle...

-n

[Lars]

Excellent post.

[gaazn]

ron paul is the new jerry brown. a candidate that was awful percentage-wise in the early states, but kept exceeding expectations until until there were only two candidates left. but for RP to make a serious run, he must be viable on February 19 to win Wisconsin. Winning Maine and Washington would also be helpful.

[WTFYO]

Great post, but I have to disagree with you on the mainstream media. If it were to come down to McCain vs. Paul, they would spin it as if McCain had amazingly won early. They would laugh about Ron Paul still being in the race, declare victory for McCain, tell us the convention was meaningless this year, and focus on Hillary and Obama.

They care far more about keeping a candidate like Paul out of power than they do about ratings. They would literally hold a debate with McCain by himself if they have to.

I think your logic is a bit flawed. Let's say that everyone drops but McCain and Paul. Then the media declare McCain the winner. I'll bet you that people won't even bother to make it out to vote in the upcoming primaries because they don't figure it would matter. This would have to benifit paul. We can continue to pound Pauls message and gain support while all of McCains supporters fall asleep.

[WTFYO]

I think they are going to pull a variation of what they pulled in LA - that "pro-life/Family values slate". I think McCain and Romney are going to both run for as long as they can to monopolize media/debate time and enjoying a comfortable lead, not spending much money on the primaries until that lead drops. One of them will then drop out and be the others VP candidate, so all their delegates go to them. Capture the nomination by running multiple candidates and having the ones in the lead join forces.

Paul's best chance in that scenario is to ask Huckabee to be his VP and so get his delegates. It's all about delegates.

Then we have all those free delegates and delegates who can vote as they wish after X number of votes.

This is going to be an uphill struggle...

-n
hmm, could happen. I've noticed that Huckabee has been the only candidate that acts decent toward Paul.

[OferNave]

Well I think that says more about how poorly we have been doing fundraising wise this quarter. Huck by no means has enough to run a full fledged national campaign. If not for a great Q4 we wouldn't either. We need to get back into top tier fundraising with a successful money bomb tomorrow.

We're not doing badly. We raised $4M in January, and if you include today (first day of February), it's $5-6M, depending on how today's money bomb goes.

[shooter_tx]

I agree, but from a Pro-Life perspective, he is for special circumstances which the hard core Pro-Lifers are against.
Right, and Dr. Paul can follow up with:

"My 'special circumstances' say that it's a state issue, where you'll have a much better chance at influencing the outcome than you will with nine unelected robes."

:cool:

[Thomas_Paine]

The Establishment is now hedging its bets on McCain, not a good idea.

[barrett203]

bump

[pacelli]

These are all media-organized debates. If it comes down to Paul & McCain, there simply won't be any more televised debates. The media will switch the focus to "McCain v Clinton or McCain v Obama"?

[Carole]

Can someone tell me how to see this site?

When I go to many sites, including this one, I get kicked out automatically after three seconds and sent to some generic page that has two HTTP//-s at the beginning.

This happens a lot and is very annoying.
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Th...About_Ron_Paul

[curtis119]

Can someone tell me how to see this site?

When I go to many sites, including this one, I get kicked out automatically after three seconds and sent to some generic page that has two HTTP//-s at the beginning.

This happens a lot and is very annoying.
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Th...About_Ron_Paul

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/The_Bottom_Line_About_Ron_Paul

[jrich4rpaul]

No way Romney will drop out. The most we can hope for is a 3 man race.

But yes, RP knows what he's doing as far as which states to cover. It also seems like he's going for the caucus states.