Gut Check: What are his chances, really?

[NewEnd]

0% - he has NO chance of becoming the GOP presidential candidate
25% - he has a 25% chance of becoming the GOP presidential candidate.
50% - he has a 50% chance of becoming the GOP presidential candidate.
75% - he has a 75% chance of becoming the GOP presidential candidate.
100% - I am sure he will win the GOP nomination.

How do you really feel his chances at the GOP nomination are?

I am at about 50% right now.

I have worked and watched a lot of losing efforts, but something feels very very very different about this one.

[Captain Shays]

I said 25% but it doesn't matter. If the patriots thought that they would only join the revolution because they had a chance to win against the most powerful military in the world and their own government the most powerful in the world we wouldn't have a country right now.

So I would say that we have about as much chance as getting Ron Paul elected as the patriots did of overthrowing their government in 1776

Its not about winning elections anyway. Its all about "Give Me Liberty OR Give Me Death"

[angelatc]

I wouldn't go as high as 50% until I start seeing some of the non-internet citizens singing the praises.

We're in a bubble, I fear.

[enan]

To be honest, I'm around fifty percent as well. It'll be my first time voting, and I'm fortunate enough to live in a state which has open primaries (bucking the two-party system)

I think it's up to chance. The big problem isn't that we have to convert the core of the Republican party - that will most likely not happen, as the imperialistic ideology of "protecting 'our' interests overseas" is ingrained in them. We have to somehow rein in the moderates, the democrats, and people who may not have even voted before to work with us for Ron Paul. If we can't do that, then the same political wheels which get an elite few elected will keep Dr. Paul out of office. It'll be hard to convince moderates to trust a republican again. I think the socialistic democrats won't like Ron Paul's views on the welfare state. I think those who have never voted before will actually be the easiest to rein in (civil liberties, keeping us out of war, returning to constitutional ideals). Failing any of these, however, will mean that Ron Paul most likely will not get in office.

We can do it, though. We're already winning minor battles. We're getting some support in California, and there's still some time left before the primaries. We just gotta keep pushing. RP is starting to arrest the mainstream media's attention.

[Patrick Henry]

I picked 75%.

I truly believe that we are going to witness a ground swell of support for the good Dr. This country is completely fed up with the war, cronyism and the blatant disregard for the rule of law from our so called "leaders". I believe in "The Silent Majority" and the time has never been better for them to make themselves heard.

[MsDoodahs]

I picked 100%.

I think the time is now for retaking the nation.

I think it will be a battle and a struggle.

But even with that...I think this is it.

[Seth M.]

I picked 100% :P

[Therion]

If he can win the primary, RP's chances are around 100%. But the primary is too soon and isn't getting the attention. It's obvious that RP is in the right, that he's the only one who deserves to be in the race, and convincing people of that fact should be easy. The problem is raising funds and getting the world out before Iowa. Will that happen? Only if RP absolutely owns in the next debate and his interviews with Maher and Stewart.

[wwycher]

I'm serious, if he wins the primaries, I think all of us should buy him one of those Popemobile bubble cars. I know it sounds goofy, but they really are not going want this guy in office. Especially with the new ditator powers given by Lord Bush, to the executive branch. They know Dr. Paul would just ruin it all.

[angelatc]

Maybe he needs Michael Scheuer to either be VP or National Security Advisor.

Bush Sr was also a 20-year CIA man.

[ladyjade3]

I picked 50%, which is optimistic. I think we will see a lot more support and break out of this bubble. I just don't see how we can't. The field will be winnowed and it will come down to 2, and RP will be one of them, then the real discourse with the established party - you know the ones that applauded in SC - will begin. I wonder if it won't be Romney we ultimately show down with... Giuliani is toast soon. People hate McCain. Gingrich has too much baggage. Condi won't run. Who am I forgetting? But if he wins the primaries and becomes the nominee, he will smoke the democrat.

[NewEnd]

The bubble will certainly be broken, because his campaign is raking in some serious cash. I think he is quite aware of his actual chances, because it appeared to me on his c-span appearance, he was almost choking. He knows the stakes got alot higher... and I hope he just stays himself, and does not hire some slick campaign manager.

We have been spoon fed TV personalities as politicians for along time, but our generation (X and Y) is alot harder to fool. we don't necessarily buy into slick advertising campaigns anymore, political or otherwise.

But caucusing is a whole different, scary world, and likely to be our downfall. When I caucused for Dean, you would be amazed at how organized little Kucinich's people were though. They were amazing. But the most organized, was Kerry. He just bussed in people from the old folks home, and they danced with who brought them. I don't think many minds could be changed for Paul, so it would take a tidal wave of new (or perhaps, resurgent) support. This is not impossible, since there are many disenfranchised republicans out there. I talked to many while working the county fairs for the Libertarian Party 2000 - 2003.

That is why I made this poll. I worked really hard for the Libertarian party, in those years, knowing damn well we did not have a snowball's chance in hell. I never worked for a campaign I thought had a chance (including Dean, I saw very early on, way before the scream, that Kerry was the pick for the DNC)... but this feels so much different. All these people claiming to never heard of him, but loving him! It's beautiful, you don't find this kind of enthusiasm with Clinton or Obama!

I think, Honestly, Paul is the only GOP candidate who could beat Clinton! I also think that an Obama vs. Paul or Edwards vs. Paul race would be a very close. A pro-war Republican is doomed to lose, and republicans who think otherwise deep down know it's true. They tasted defeat in 2006, and it was total... they did not flip one seat. They know it is very possible, and deep down, they all know why.

[enan]

The democrats have historically been the hawks of the two parties. I wouldn't put it past Obama or Clinton to "police the world". As Ron Paul said, 70% of the population is against the war in Iraq. Whoever comes out on the stronger anti-war platform is the one who is most likely to win.

[angelatc]

People hate McCain. Gingrich has too much baggage. Condi won't run. Who am I forgetting?

Fred Thompson.

[NMCB3]

I wonder if it won't be Romney we ultimately show down with... Giuliani is toast soon. People hate McCain. Gingrich has too much baggage. Condi won't run. Who am I forgetting? Yep Fred Thompson. Many in the Party love him, if he jumped in tomorrow he would easily poll 2nd place. He only did one term, and his record is nothing compared to Ron Paul's, but he talks tough and tells them what they want to hear. Plus they watch him on Law and Order. I know that doesn`t amount to much, but there it is. :)

I voted 50% buy the way. I think its definitely possible. Look no one could predict the exposure Ron received from his altercation with the fascist Benito Giuliani. It has helped him more than hurt him, after the next debate who knows what will happen. :cool:

[Suzu]

I chose 100%, because I had a vision :cool: and visions do not lie!

[Tin_Foil_Hat]

I voted for 75%.

RP has been picking up support among both GOP and Dems. Many independents like him. As someone else mentioned, McCain and Rudy are toast. Romney & Thompson could be the only serious heavyweights to deal with BUT they are both pro-war.

There could be a nice momentum building up in the next few months, which will be critical IMO.

[NewEnd]

Buuuu--mmmmp

welcome new members

has optimism increased? I think so.

:)

[erowe1]

There should be more options, and they should be lower than the ones given here. With a field of 15+ people between the two major parties, anyone with as much as a 25% chance is doing extremely well. Really there's only one candidate in the race with better than a 25% chance right now, and that's Hillary. I'd say Paul's chances are somewhere around 10%, and given the circumstances, I consider that really good.

[erowe1]

Those of you who voted for 50% and higher are being Pollyannas (sp?). There is not a single candidate in the race who can honestly be considered more than 50% likely to win it at this early stage with so many contenders and so much that can happen--with the possible exception of Hillary, and even for her >50% is doubtful.

[BillyDkid]

It is very important to remember how volatile all of this is depending on every new thing that happens. If Ron gets first or second in a primary or caucus it will change our perspective and the perspective of the media. So we really can't say what his odds are because we haven't had a real test yet. I believe he could have won the Iowa straw poll if they had hit that place hard early. If he had won we would be convinced he has a very good chance.

[nayjevin]

his odds are irrelevant.

the odds of me voting for him = 100%
the odds of me campaigning my hardest for him = 100%
my odds of voting in the general election if he doesn't win the nomination = 0%

[libertarianguy]

test

[Matt Collins]

The Only Reason He Wont Win Is If We Dont Work Hard Enough.
The Election Is In our Hands!!!




.

[Kregener]

I picked 50%, which is way up from just a few months ago, but until I see the MSM begin treating him like an honorable man and a viable candidate, I fear the people needed to bring him a victory will remain brainwashed by Faux Snooze and CNN.

Ron's Revolution IS growing, but will it grow fast enough and big enough so that the Power Elite can just "make it non-existent"?

[paulitics]

Right now, I would say 10%, unless we do more to ensure victory in NH and a good showing in Iowa, SC.

[peruvianRP]

I see 75% and i'm really good a look into the future.

[Zarxrax]

I said 50%. I think Ron Paul has some really good odds for doing well in the primaries. I mean think about it, who the hell even votes in primaries? How many citizens even KNOW that they can vote in primaries? Ron Pauls supporters have shown much more willingness to actually get out there and do something than any other candidates! I have no doubt that tons of ron paul supporters will go out and vote for him in the primaries.