View Full Version : February 5 Update

Bradley in DC
01-30-2008, 05:11 PM

For those who may have missed it (I tucked a mini-announcement in last night's exit poll thread), we are now reporting poll results for twelve thirteen of the February 5 primary states, and will be adding another half dozen or so in the next 24 hours for which only a handful of polls are currently available. The links below also appear in the right column throughout Pollster.com:
AL Dem, Rep
AZ Dem, Rep
CA Dem, Rep
CO Dem, Rep
CT Dem, Rep
GA Dem, Rep
IL Dem, Rep
MA Dem, Rep
MO Dem, Rep
NJ Dem, Rep
NY Dem, Rep
OK Dem, Rep
TN Dem, Rep
Needless to say, we will be hard at work updating these pages as new polls become available over the next week. If you know of a poll in the public domain, or if you spot a typographical error that we have missed in our haste to get these data posted, please email us (at questions at pollster dot com).
One important note: We only plot our regression trend lines on the charts when eight or more polls are available. When you do not see trend lines plotted, the estimate for each candidate that appears in the chart legend is the median result among all available polls.
In several cases, that median result is probably a less accurate estimate of the current state of the race than the most recent poll released. Consider Colorado. The median result shows Clinton leading by eleven points (34% to 23%), but four of the five polls were conducted more than four months ago. The most recent Denver Post/Mason Dixon survey, however, shows a close race, with 34% for Obama and 32% for Clinton.
So in looking at polls for February 5, if our trend estimate does not plot, we recommend focusing more on the most recent polls conducted in January 2008 than the median value we report in the chart legend.
Readers have also inquired about sites that tally delegate counts and provide more information about the number of delegates up for grabs in each February 5 state and the rules for their allotment. Tracking that information is well beyond the scope of Pollster.com, but we are happy to recommend two excellent resources put up by our partners:
The National Journal has a unique Campaign Tracker page that lists all of the February 5 states and provides the number of delegates at stake, the type of election (primary or caucus), the rules for participation (open or closed) and the all important rules of delegate allotment. The page is free to non-subscribers.
Slate's Election Scorecard (which plots our trend estimates and includes daily analysis by Slate's Chadwick Matlin) also features a running tally of delegate totals won by each candidate.
We know that many other news organizations are tracking delegates, but we would appreciate your support for our partners at the National Journal and Slate.