goldstandard
01-29-2008, 05:12 PM
From articles posted on http://www.redtelegram.com/
25 Jan
How could Ron Paul win the Republican Nomination?
Using my Ron Paul projected results model (which so far has been more accurate then all of the polling posted on realclearpolitics), I have draw up a delegate route that could give Paul a chance at the GOP nomination. First, 2 assumptions:
1. Giuliani and Huckabee will give up shortly after super Tuesday. The race will be between McCain, Romney, and Paul. It would be great for Ron if Giuliani or Huckabee has a strong showing on super Tuesday (keeping the field divided), but I am going to assume they will both drop out shortly after super Tuesday.
2. Open delegates (especially former Huckabee delegates) will move towards Paul or McCain, but not Romney. This makes McCain Ron’s top target. The campaign likely recognizes this as well, being that Paul’s GOP Florida debate question was crafted to make McCain look like an idiot.
Aside from those assumptions, Paul needs most of these things to happen:
1. McCain needs to lose at least 3 of the 4: Florida, New York, New Jersey, and California. California will be the toughest, the other three are all very close.
2. Paul needs to win at least 8 or 9 or these 10 states: Alaska (possible), DC (possible), Colorado(very tough), North Dakota (tough), Texas (possible), Idaho (tough), Oregon (possible), New Mexico (possible), and Tennessee (tough). Of these, super Tuesday includes Alaska and Colorado. Paul needs a strong showing on super Tuesday with at least 1 other first place finish and at least 3 2nd place finishes in non winner takes all states.
3. Paul needs a first place in either Virginia, Wisconsin, or Indiana (all very tough for him). Depending on super Tuesday he may need to win in two of these states to have a chance.
28 Jan
RP Viability Review
Here is what I think RP will get by default (a baseline). This model was built prior to Iowa and NH. NH under-performed because the model does not take into account the significant number of independents (the false racism charges released that morning may have subtracted a full percentage point of votes as well).
State Projection Actual Error
Alaska 27.29%
District of Columbia 16.76%
Utah 16.01%
Nevada 13.65% 13.73% 0.08%
Arizona 12.85%
Colorado 12.75%
Iowa 11.47% 11.29% -0.18%
North Dakota 10.95%
Texas 10.77%
Idaho 10.71%
Oregon 10.67%
New Mexico 10.65%
Tennessee 10.50%
New Hampshire 10.23% 7.84% -2.39%
Florida 9.09%
Washington 8.87%
New Jersey 8.66%
Oklahoma 8.37%
Arkansas 8.08%
North Carolina 7.95%
Delaware 7.49%
Montana 7.44%
Kentucky 7.25%
Pennsylvania 6.92%
California 6.83%
Connecticut 6.69%
Maryland 6.55%
Illinois 6.05%
Louisiana 6.00%
Virginia 5.71%
Minnesota 5.31%
Missouri 5.09%
Kansas 4.89%
Georgia 4.85%
Indiana 4.46%
Michigan 4.25% 6.41% 2.16%
Massachusetts 4.15%
Alabama 4.08%
Wyoming 3.98%
Wisconsin 3.61%
Nebraska 3.53%
South Carolina 3.43% 3.66% 0.23%
New York 3.24%
Mississippi 2.89%
West Virginia 2.78%
Ohio 2.75%
Maine 2.69%
Hawaii 1.88%
Vermont 1.75%
South Dakota 1.61%
Rhode Island 1.49%
http://www.redtelegram.com/how%20paul%20could%20win.JPG
Interesting.:)
25 Jan
How could Ron Paul win the Republican Nomination?
Using my Ron Paul projected results model (which so far has been more accurate then all of the polling posted on realclearpolitics), I have draw up a delegate route that could give Paul a chance at the GOP nomination. First, 2 assumptions:
1. Giuliani and Huckabee will give up shortly after super Tuesday. The race will be between McCain, Romney, and Paul. It would be great for Ron if Giuliani or Huckabee has a strong showing on super Tuesday (keeping the field divided), but I am going to assume they will both drop out shortly after super Tuesday.
2. Open delegates (especially former Huckabee delegates) will move towards Paul or McCain, but not Romney. This makes McCain Ron’s top target. The campaign likely recognizes this as well, being that Paul’s GOP Florida debate question was crafted to make McCain look like an idiot.
Aside from those assumptions, Paul needs most of these things to happen:
1. McCain needs to lose at least 3 of the 4: Florida, New York, New Jersey, and California. California will be the toughest, the other three are all very close.
2. Paul needs to win at least 8 or 9 or these 10 states: Alaska (possible), DC (possible), Colorado(very tough), North Dakota (tough), Texas (possible), Idaho (tough), Oregon (possible), New Mexico (possible), and Tennessee (tough). Of these, super Tuesday includes Alaska and Colorado. Paul needs a strong showing on super Tuesday with at least 1 other first place finish and at least 3 2nd place finishes in non winner takes all states.
3. Paul needs a first place in either Virginia, Wisconsin, or Indiana (all very tough for him). Depending on super Tuesday he may need to win in two of these states to have a chance.
28 Jan
RP Viability Review
Here is what I think RP will get by default (a baseline). This model was built prior to Iowa and NH. NH under-performed because the model does not take into account the significant number of independents (the false racism charges released that morning may have subtracted a full percentage point of votes as well).
State Projection Actual Error
Alaska 27.29%
District of Columbia 16.76%
Utah 16.01%
Nevada 13.65% 13.73% 0.08%
Arizona 12.85%
Colorado 12.75%
Iowa 11.47% 11.29% -0.18%
North Dakota 10.95%
Texas 10.77%
Idaho 10.71%
Oregon 10.67%
New Mexico 10.65%
Tennessee 10.50%
New Hampshire 10.23% 7.84% -2.39%
Florida 9.09%
Washington 8.87%
New Jersey 8.66%
Oklahoma 8.37%
Arkansas 8.08%
North Carolina 7.95%
Delaware 7.49%
Montana 7.44%
Kentucky 7.25%
Pennsylvania 6.92%
California 6.83%
Connecticut 6.69%
Maryland 6.55%
Illinois 6.05%
Louisiana 6.00%
Virginia 5.71%
Minnesota 5.31%
Missouri 5.09%
Kansas 4.89%
Georgia 4.85%
Indiana 4.46%
Michigan 4.25% 6.41% 2.16%
Massachusetts 4.15%
Alabama 4.08%
Wyoming 3.98%
Wisconsin 3.61%
Nebraska 3.53%
South Carolina 3.43% 3.66% 0.23%
New York 3.24%
Mississippi 2.89%
West Virginia 2.78%
Ohio 2.75%
Maine 2.69%
Hawaii 1.88%
Vermont 1.75%
South Dakota 1.61%
Rhode Island 1.49%
http://www.redtelegram.com/how%20paul%20could%20win.JPG
Interesting.:)